US, Iran Strike Defiant Tones

Summary

Podcast Summary: "Balance of Power" – US, Iran Strike Defiant Tones
Date: March 12, 2026
Host: Bloomberg (Joe Mathieu, Kailey Leinz)
Main Guests: Senator Elissa Slotkin, Tyler Kendall (Bloomberg), Doug Farrer (Democratic strategist), Maura Gillespie (Republican strategist), Michael Oren (former Israeli Ambassador to the U.S.)

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Episode Overview

This episode dives deep into escalating U.S.-Iran tensions following recent military strikes and Iran's strong response to ongoing U.S. and Israeli actions. The host team and expert guests analyze the immediate geopolitical, economic, and political impacts, with a particular focus on volatile oil markets, uncertain war aims, and the global repercussions of conflict in the Strait of Hormuz. Other featured topics include the domestic political cost for President Trump, the unclear objectives of the U.S. administration, the mounting human and financial toll, and broader implications for Israel and the Middle East.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Heightened U.S.-Iran Tensions and Oil Markets ([00:55]–[05:34])

• Oil Price Surge: Oil prices hit $100 overnight. Market unease is reinforced by aggressive rhetoric from Iran’s new Supreme Leader vowing to keep the Strait of Hormuz closed:

  • “[Khamenei] saying the Strait of Hormuz should remain shut. Tehran will look to open other fronts in the war if the US and Israel persist with their attacks.” – Joe Mathieu ([00:55])

• U.S. Administration Messaging: President Trump claims victory and emphasizes U.S. oil strength, but nearly simultaneously faces challenging new threats from Iran, including regional escalation.

• Military Claims & Ceasefire Demands: U.S. military reports over 5,000 Iranian targets struck. However, Iran’s regime remains intact, and Iran signals willingness to consider ceasefire only if the U.S. and Israel pledge never to attack again—something highlighted as an insurmountable gap at this stage.

  “There really doesn’t feel like there is a viable off ramp right now because President Trump still has maintained that there needs to be what he calls unconditional surrender.”
  – Tyler Kendall ([04:32])

• Market Cooling Moment: Iran allows some countries’ ships to cross Hormuz, momentarily easing oil prices.

2. Unclear U.S. Objectives and Domestic Political Fallout ([06:12]–[10:13])

• War Costs & Objectives Debated: Senator Elissa Slotkin voices frustration over inconsistent U.S. objectives:

  “The president and his cabinet have been all over the place in terms of what our objectives were. You know, is it regime change? Is it their nuclear capabilities, ballistic missiles?...I’m going to need to see certainly some more clarity on what we actually claim to have achieved. And is the juice worth the squeeze when it comes to the loss of life?”
  – Senator Slotkin ([06:44])

• Economic Impact & Supply Chain Threats: Straits closure is “driving up the price of oil. Ships were attacked today...insurance companies won’t insure ships.”

  • This has downstream effects on U.S. consumers, e.g., gas, fertilizers, food prices.

• Drone Warfare – New Era: Significant casualties from drone attacks—notably in Kuwait—signal a shift in warfare. Iran’s drones can evade U.S. defenses; U.S. is seeking Ukrainian advice on counter-drone measures.

  “This is a new era for warfare for the United States. The Ukrainians have been living it and now we are living it, too.”
  – Senator Slotkin ([09:19])

• Human Cost: Over 140 U.S. military injured, with grave injuries noted (burns, amputations) ([11:37]).

3. Financial Toll & Domestic Politics ([11:37]–[19:38])

• $11 Billion in War Costs: Pentagon reports $11B spent in the first six days, not including broader military expenses.

  • Political Panel: Doug Farrer (Democrat) and Maura Gillespie (Republican) assess economic impacts and risks for both parties.

• Messaging Missteps: President Trump’s repeated use of "excursion" (instead of "incursion") and "we've already won" claims are critiqued for undermining seriousness and clarity.

  “When you say excursion, it sounds to me as if you’re at a resort and you’re going on a date or a vacation...it really does harm the messaging across the board.”
  – Maura Gillespie ([17:49])

• Inflation Domino Effect: Higher oil prices can drive up prices of key goods (oil, food, fertilizer, even helium for tech and medical uses).

  “Fertilizer prices are going to go up...inflation will likely go up if oil stays over $80. The cascading consequences of this could last for years, maybe decades.”
  – Doug Farrer ([18:48])

• Political Peril: Both strategists see risks in selling the war to the American public without clear objectives or benefits.

4. Pop Culture Politics: Jake Paul Endorsement ([22:15]–[23:46])

• Trump amplifies influencer Jake Paul at a rally, leading to panel mockery and wider questions about political seriousness in a time of crisis.

  “Donald Trump loves to be surrounded by strong men and he thinks, or who he thinks are strong men. And it takes away the seriousness of what’s going on here.”
  – Maura Gillespie ([22:46])

5. Israel’s Perspective – Interview with Former Ambassador Michael Oren ([25:18]–[34:56])

• Divergence in War Aims: Ambassador Oren underscores that U.S.'s and Israel's definitions of “winning” may not match. Israel demands cessation of Iran’s nuclear and missile programs; sees no Iranian surrender.

  “There will be no Mount Suribachi moment...It may be a long-term proposition. The model would not be Iraq and Afghanistan...but really the Cold War.”
  – Michael Oren ([27:04])

• Iranian Regime Still Firm: Both U.S. and Israeli intel shows regime control largely intact. Oren emphasizes only long-term, Cold War-style pressure and possible naval blockade could erode regime stability.

• Hezbollah Front Intensifying: Even if Iran conflict abates, Hezbollah rocket barrages make northern Israel “ghost cities.” Oren sees continued Israeli operations as necessary.

  “Unless Hezbollah is decisively defeated...those areas in northern Israel remain...ghost cities...That is an intolerable situation for any sovereign state, certainly for the state of Israel.”
  – Michael Oren ([31:02])

• On Regime Security: Iranian top brass reportedly fled to Mashad, deep inside Iran, due to U.S./Israel intelligence pressure ([32:05]).

• Protracted Conflict Expected: Oren warns the public against expecting quick resolution, stressing that American disengagement risks letting Iran consolidate regional dominance, which could be a dire strategic setback for the U.S. in years ahead.

  “If the war ends with Iran basically in control of the Straits of Hormuz...that will have very far reaching ramifications for American security.”
  – Michael Oren ([33:51])

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Economic Pain:
  “Right now, whether the President likes it or not, Iran has veto power over what is getting through the Persian Gulf. It’s driving up the price of oil. Ships were attacked today...” – Senator Slotkin ([06:44])

• On Drone Warfare:
  “A new type of thing—the Ukrainians are sending advisors to the United States...This is a new era for warfare for the United States.” – Slotkin ([09:19])

• On Unclear U.S. Goals:
  “I don’t think that they have clear objectives for what winning looks like. They’re certainly causing absolute havoc in the economy.” – Doug Farrer ([18:48])

• On Messaging:
  “When you say excursion, it sounds to me as if you’re at a resort...it really does harm the messaging across the board.” – Maura Gillespie ([17:49])

• On Long War Outlook:
  “The model would not be Iraq and Afghanistan...but really the Cold War where the United States remained very steadfast.” – Michael Oren ([27:04])

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Timestamps for Key Segments

• [00:55] – Oil spikes, Iran blocks Strait of Hormuz
• [02:24] – Trump claims victory, 54 ships destroyed
• [03:35] – Administration “optimism,” 5,000 Iranian targets hit
• [04:32] – Lack of ceasefire off-ramp, Iran’s regime demands
• [06:44] – Sen. Slotkin critiques U.S. objectives
• [09:19] – Drone warfare, Ukrainian counter-drone advisors
• [11:37] – War costs, over 140 U.S. casualties
• [14:18] – Domestic fallout, shutdown effects, panel discussion
• [17:45] – “Excursion” vs. “incursion” rhetoric, messaging missteps
• [18:48] – Inflation and food chain impact
• [22:15] – Jake Paul endorsement at Trump rally
• [25:18] – Michael Oren on Israeli objectives and realities
• [27:04] – No “mission accomplished” in sight; Cold War as analogy
• [31:02] – Hezbollah threat, northern Israel “ghost cities”
• [33:51] – Oren’s closing, warning of long-term U.S. strategic risks

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Tone & Language

• Analytical, sometimes sardonic (notably in panel sections)
• Blunt, particularly in criticism of policy ambiguity and political theater
• Urgent and sobering regarding the human/economic cost and geopolitical consequences
• Memorable for sharp exchanges between strategists and direct warnings from expert guests

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Bottom Line:
This episode provides a multidimensional snapshot of a critical moment in U.S.-Iran relations. Listeners are left with a sense of deep strategic uncertainty, spiraling costs (human and financial), and the recognition that neither military victory nor domestic political clarity is close at hand. The panel underscores the lasting global consequences—militarily, economically, and diplomatically—should the U.S. and its allies fail to secure both a sustainable endgame and coherent messaging on the world stage.

Transcript

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[A]

Oil$95 our reality once again today. I won't call it a new we hit 100 overnight here. We've got our eyes on crude and Brent, which are not too far apart from each other, with difficult headlines here coming from Iran's new supreme leader. I keep seeing the purported leader, the alleged ayatollah, while he's speaking. And we told you yesterday he was apparently badly injured in the initial strikes against Iran. The new supreme leader, Khamenei, saying the Strait of Hormuz should remain shut. Tehran will look to open other fronts in the war if the US And Israel persist with their attacks. Pretty remarkable moment here, and it certainly got the oil patch freaked out all over again. And it's not the only headline that we're following. President Trump on social media writing the United States is the largest oil producer in the world by far, so when oil prices go up, we make a lot of money. But of far greater interest and importance to me as president is stopping an evil empire, Iran, from having nuclear weapons and destroying the Middle east and indeed the world. I won't ever let that happen. And so it doesn't sound like a lot of off ramps are presenting themselves at the moment. The president on the road last evening in Kentucky talking like this thing was already over. Here's what he said at the rally and we've won.

[D]

Let me say we've won. You know, you never like to say too early, you won, we won. We won the bet in the first hour. It was over. My administration, as you know better than anybody, is also working to keep the oil flowing. It's all flowing all over. We knocked out, you know, they wanted to drop some mines. Very friendly people, mines. So boats blow up and we knocked out. As of you know, every hour I have to change because they knock them out so fast. I've never seen a thing Think of it, they knocked out 54 ships in two days.

[A]

54 ships in two days. Interesting. Now, AFP is reporting that Iran allowed ships from some countries to cross the Strait of Hormuz. We're seeking more information on this, but apparently that brought us back from triple digit territory here when it comes to oil. Bloomberg's Washington correspondent Tyler Kendall stops by for a moment. Glad to have her at the table today on what is a rainy and now suddenly freezing cold day in Washington. After 85 degrees yesterday, it's par for the course. Tyler, is we've won the official administration line here.

[C]

Well, President Trump has repeatedly expressed optimism that the US Is ahead of schedule, as he likes to say when it comes to achieving objectives in Iran. And to reference the post on Truth Social that you were just mentioning, he is really trying to put to the forefront that those objectives are what's important right now when you hear all these concerns and political pressure when it comes to energy prices. But as you outlined, we've gotten these updates from Centcom, including that the US has already hit more than 5,000 Iranian targets. So it appears that is one way that the administration is measuring success as questions still remain about just how long this conflict will go and the regime

[A]

holds amazingly, not only the statement from the Ayatollah this morning, Reuters reporting intelligence indicates Iran's leadership is still largely intact and not at risk of collapse as long as we continue this campaign from the air only. And that remains the case. Right.

[C]

And we had also heard our reporting, actually pretty incredible reporting from our colleagues in the region. Iran had told regional intermediaries overnight that they have a few demands that they want to see in order to agree to any potential cease fire, which was really the first inkling that we've even heard. Heard that there was discussion about a ceasefire, but that includes that the US And Israel would have to promise not to attack them ever again in the future, which sort of highlights, I think, just how stark that divide is at the moment between all of the factions involved and that there really doesn't feel like there is a viable off ramp right now because President Trump still has maintained that there needs to be what he calls unconditional surrender as the US Keeps achieving these objectives. I'm sure we'll get into it with the oil. But perhaps one of the most stark comments that we got from that statement from the new supreme leader, the first time that we've heard from him since he was appointed over the weekend was him vowing that the Strait of Hormuz will remain closed and that is the key leverage point in all of this for Iran.

[A]

That's right. Well, boy, I'll tell you in our remaining moment here, I am curious if there's a chance we see the president today. He's got a couple of stops on the calendar. Nothing public, though, right?

[C]

Everything is closed at the moment. No public briefing yet either, so we'll have to see. But we have heard from him, of course, on Truth Social, so we'll keep our eyes paired there. And as Bloomberg News is reporting today, some of these new measures that the president could be taking to help curb those prices, including invoking the Jones act, which would make it, you know, easier for generally cheaper foreign tankers to transport energy commodities around. We know there's some other ideas that he's floating, but at this point, nothing public.

[A]

Well, you know, things are not great when we start rethinking the Jones act and tapping the spr, and both are taking place right now. Tyler, thank you so much. Bloomberg's Tyler Kendall, our Washington correspondent, with the latest here on this situation. As we've told you, it's not coming cheap. Pentagon told Congress that the first week of the war alone cost American taxpayers at least $11 billion. Something that we talked to Alyssa Slotkin about, an important Democratic voice on foreign policy in the United States Senate. My colleague Kailey Lyons got into this matter with her.

[E]

Listen, the president and his cabinet have been all over the place in terms of what our objectives were. You know, is it regime change? Is it their nuclear capabilities, ballistic missiles? You know, what is it? I think the truth is that, you know, originally, when it comes to thinking about sort of strategy in the Middle east, one thing we never, ever want to have is another country having veto power over our freedom of navigation, our ability to ship and move things. And right now, whether the president likes it or not, Iran has veto power over what is getting through the Persian Gulf. You know, this very narrow Straits of Hormuz, it's driving up the price of oil. Ships were attacked today trying to make that crossing. Insurance companies won't insure ships. So I think whatever the definition of victory may or may not be, when Iran under. Yeah, a different guy. It's not the same leader. You have a different leader. The son of the former leader is now leading. They still have the ability to project power and screw up our shipping. So to me, you know, I don't know what definition he has because I don't know what his goals are. It's sort of like Venezuela, where it's like you do a couple of things and you declare victory and go on. But I'm going to need to see certainly some more clarity on what we actually claim to have achieved. And is the juice worth the squeeze when it comes to the loss of life? We've lost lives already and then also the loss of treasure, given what is doing to the U.S. economy.

[F]

Well, of course, it's not just lives lost. We saw reporting from CBS earlier today that there were actually more casualties in terms of injuries in that drone strike in Kuwait. CBS reporting that includes brain injuries, shrapnel rooms, burns, at least one amputation. Some 30American, American service members, according to their reporting as of Tuesday night were still in the hospital. If we are to see, in the name of protecting shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, actually the beginning of naval escorts and more troops potentially put in harm's way for that reason, is that, is that justified in terms of when we consider the economic consequences that you were just laying out?

[E]

Yeah. Well, look, you're starting to hear people really hurting here back at home with the price of gas, with the price of just moving fertilizer, like for our farmers in and out. So we definitely have that request. West, it's a big deal to make the decision to actually escort with a military escort. And it was interesting because the secretary of energy announced, you know, okay, we're going to be escorting ships and then had to take that tweet down. And to my knowledge, we have not provided military escort for a single ship. So, you know, I think that this is a live issue right now. I will say with the tragic death of these service people, something that is a new trend in this war is the role of drones.

[C]

Right.

[E]

Iran's use of largely kamikaze drones into civilian targets, military targets, our embassies and their ability to evade our traditional missile defense curtains like our assets. This is a new type of thing. The Ukrainians are sending advisors to the United States of America to help us with counter drone technology. I just want to put down this marker. This is a new era for warfare for the United States. The Ukrainians have been living it and now we are living it, too.

[A]

She served three tours in Iraq as a CIA analyst and now serves on the armed services and Homeland Security committees. Senator Elissa Slotkin speaking with us last evening here on Bloomberg TV and Radio. I'm Joe Matthew in Washington. Glad you're along. Stay with us on balance of power. We'll have much more coming up after this. The news doesn't stop on the weekends.

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[A]

It's the Thursday edition and thanks for joining us. I'm Joe Matthew in Washington where we are reeling here. Thanks in part to the weather. We've gone from 8, 85 degrees. We lost 50 degrees overnight and it's snowing right now. We were talking cherry blossoms yesterday. If you're with us on YouTube, you see I am not lying. Looks like a blizzard outside. I'm not sure what's happening. Who says they can't control the weather? Washington also trying to recover from the Jake Paul endorsement. And if you haven't heard about that, we will get to it later with our political panel. First, we try to seize on the cost of war here beyond the lives that have been lost and the many Americans who have been injured. We've been learning much more about that in the last 24 hours with that report from CBS News. We're talking about 140 and many of them are gravely injured. Going back to those initial strikes, the initial drone strikes that killed a half dozen Americans and that number has been growing here. We'll have more on that as we learn more. The financial costs, or as Senator Slotkin referred to, the loss of blood and treasure is real with reporting now, you've heard this figure beyond $11 billion already. This came out of a series of briefings on Capitol Hill. The Pentagon telling lawmakers the first six days of the war with Iran cost 11 billion. Now, it's interesting. Remember, the first two days was in excess of 5 billion. So, hey, this is getting cheaper as we go. But the actual cost is likely much higher, Bloomberg reports, because the number does not include the expense of operating ships, maintaining personnel deployed in the region. Remember, we talked to Colonel Sanders about gas and salaries alone. Millions of dollars a day for a single aircraft carrier group. And we got two of them steaming out there right now. That's where we start our conversation with our political panel. We've got a good one for you today. Doug Farrer is back with us, Democratic strategist principal at Maywood Strategies, former senior advisor to the FTC Commissioner Lina Khan. And Maura is back with us as well. Republican strategist Maura Gillespie, bluestack Strategies. It's great to see both of you here. Maura, you were working in the House of Representatives with John Boehner when we had a much smaller deficit and it was still considered an urgent matter then. At what point will the expenditures here, as the president tries to take the affordability tour on the road, become a political liability for Republicans?

[G]

It sort of already is in a few ways, I think when you look at what's happening just with the DHS funding and the shutdown still happening there, we're watching as TSA programs are being shut. I know here in Philadelphia, one of the terminals for TSA PreCheck is completely closed due to lack of staff and the shortages there. I think you're going to see more of those issues across the country. We actually just discussed earlier this week, Joe, about airports that are recommending people get there hours before, four to six hours at some places. So I think that the cost of these shutdowns coupled with the looking at how much is spending, I mean, the Pentagon report, Pete Hegseth, had to spend billions of dollars in one month because of a deficit because he had too much money. Those two things just don't match up. And I think as voters, we're wondering what the heck is going on. And Republicans who are known to be fiscally responsible, what's happened here?

[A]

There's a headline that just crossed the terminal. Saudi Arabia says it just intercepted a drone headed to one of its oil fields, the Cha Ba oil field. If that thing hit, of course, we'd be dealing with a very different level of concern in the oil market that's already revving things up. $94 a barrel for WTI today up 8%. Brent is ever closer to $100. And we did see that triple digit figure overnight. Doug, it strikes me that if the White House can convince Americans that this was an urgent imperative, that there was an imminent threat, that it was acting to protect Americans from an imminent threat, that the price tag would not actually be so much of a concern. But the president keeps using the term excursion. He said that quite a few times in his speech last night. And when he talked to local media, this is an excursion. He said, we've, we've already won. And at that point, when you start hearing about the money that's being spent in an economy that is frequently described as K shaped, how long can the politics persist there?

[H]

For President Trump, I think he means incursion and I think no one on his team has actually corrected him yet, which is not that surprising because it seems like that.

[A]

Do you really believe that, Doug?

[H]

Well, I mean, look, this war, apparently he's going around telling people he thinks it's going well when you know all the facts. And the analysts within government seem to be saying, and it's clear to us in the public that it's not going well. He's obviously replaced a hard line dictator with a hard line dictator and shot the price of oil through the roof. But look, I think the problem is, and you mentioned it and more mentioned this war cost $11 billion in the first week. It will cost much more in both blood and treasure. Look, usaid, which is one of the United States greatest all time ways of engaging with the world, cost $35 billion a year and now it's been shut down thanks to Doge, Americans are paying higher prices for health care because Affordable Care act payments were not included in the, in the President's O, triple B, big beautiful Bill Act. So the politics of this are really bad for him right now. This is the most unpopular war ever, according to the New York Times yesterday. And I don't see them getting better. And I think they're really hamstrung. They're not going to be able to say what they believe was the imminent threat to America because it's likely classified if it's even if it even exists. And so they're really in a big hole politically and with the public on this.

[A]

So Maura, is this an incursion or an excursion?

[G]

I would love to know who in the team decided that that was a good use of term. When you say excursion. It sounds to me as if you're at a resort and you're going on

[A]

a Date like a vacation.

[G]

I mean it just truly, it truly. And again, I think that it really does harm the messaging across the board when one, there's no consistency to the President's message to the American people about why we are in this, in the place. And to your point in talking about was there this imminent threat and can you describe it to us in more concrete database fact based information? Because really right now we're lacking in that. And I think that coupled that with this now by saying it's completely, almost basically over. And then the very next day,

[C]

I

[A]

think we're having a little issue with our connection with Maura, but we'll fix that. Maura, come back to us in a second. Doug, The President said straight out last evening that we've won. He said it a couple of times in a row. We've won. Is this the mission accomplished moment?

[H]

I don't think that they have clear objectives for what winning looks like. I mean, I think initially he hoped it would be like Venezuela, but obviously Iran is a much different context than Venezuela. So they don't have clear objectives. It's hard to know if they're winning. They're certainly causing absolute havoc in the economy. And we've talked about oil certainly. But look, fertilizer prices are going to go up, which is could lead to a 2% increase in food prices. And that's at the heart of the affordability crisis Americans are already facing. Inflation will likely go up if oil stays over $80. So, and you know what's interesting is a lot of these Gulf economies are going to suffer a lot and they become a financier of choice for a lot of big deals in tech and media markets. So the cascading consequences of this could last for years, maybe decades. And it really doesn't seem like the President had a plan going in, which is very alarming.

[A]

You know, it's interesting. We've heard about fertilizer, awfully important feedstock for our food supply. We've established, obviously oil prices and the massive and broad economic impact they can have here. We're hearing today about a helium shortage as well, Doug, which, you know, you might not be worried about your kid's birthday party filling up balloons, but you need helium to do a lot of stuff, including make high end semiconductors. So we're hanging up many different corners of the economy in this very narrow stretch of water. It's pretty amazing, isn't it?

[H]

It's absolutely amazing. And you know, I guess the President said we can't have too many dolls for Our children. Now, we can't have floating balloons at our children's birthday parties, thanks to his foreign policy decisions. But look, I mean, if I showed my 8 year old who's now not going to get a floating balloon, a map with the Strait of Hormuz on it, she'd probably be able to identify that this is a key port of entry and exit for important goods and services that flow through there. And, you know, to not have considered the fact that the Iranian regime's natural response to an existential threat would be to close that. That strait is really concerning, both from a strategic perspective for the government and also just for Americans who are going to be paying higher prices for everything from helium to gas.

[A]

Yeah, your daughter must be really good at geography, Doug. I will admit we try just to remind all the grownups here who are, who are watching. So, you know, all right, we've established that this was a weave last evening. The President had a lot of things to say. And when it came to foreign policy, when it came to affordability, which he also says that he has won on, and he brought up a whole new level of, I guess, politics, if we can call it that. He was joined on stage by Jake Paul. Do they hang out now? I don't. I didn't know about all of that. Maybe he was on his show or something. But, I mean, do you know who Jake Paul is? Like, how do I describe Jake Paul? I would have said, you know, like the fighter guy. The influencer playbook got its arms around this by calling him the manosphere influencer turned boxer. And I guess that really is getting to the heart of the matter. But Donald Trump sees a star. Not just a star, an elected official in Jake Paul. Let's bring it back to Kentucky last night. God's got us. Trump's got us. God bless. Love you, Kentucky. There he is.

[D]

Now. He's a great guy. He's a courageous guy. And Italian. He's a hell of a fighter, too, by the way. And I just want to say, I predict I'm going to make a prediction that you will be in the not too distant future running for political office. And you have my complete and total endorsement. Okay.

[A]

Okay. Maura, I bet you know Jake Paul. Is that the future of the Republican Party?

[G]

Oh, man. Joe, Lord help me, I have concerns. I mean, where would he run? Didn't he change his citizenship to or his location to Puerto Rico? Isn't he now a resident of Puerto Rico? I don't know. I just feel so. I don't know where he's going to run, but that's, I mean, if he wants to, by all means. It's important to have a fair and free democracy. And I encourage anyone who is interested in running for office to do so if they have a reason to run and what they want to run on. I have concerns just certainly that this is another rally while we're also at war. And I think that there is just this, unfortunately. Donald Trump loves to be surrounded by strong men and he thinks, or who he thinks are strong men. And it's an image thing and it takes away the seriousness of what's going on here because he constantly does things that really do fly in the face of what is happening on the ground, but also, you know, overseas. And I think he's losing some people in his base. So maybe Jake Paul has the manosphere, but he's also losing a lot of people by downplaying things. So he's should be worried about that.

[A]

It's the brother Logan Paul, I'm being told, is the one Puerto Rico. So they look the same. That, well, $32 million crib in Puerto Rico. Amazing the stuff that you learn on this broadcast. Doug, you're saved by the bell. Stay with us. On Balance of Power. We'll have much more coming up after this.

[B]

This is Caroline Hyde and I'm Ed

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[F]

Joining us now here on Bloomberg TV and radio is the former Israeli ambassador to the United States, Michael Oren. Ambassador, thank you very much for your time. We began this segment a few minutes ago with the president, President Trump last night saying that this war is already won. Is the US's definition of winning the same as Israel's?

[J]

Very good question. Good to be with you. It's a question that's being asked by many Israelis today. Israel had very specific goals to certainly prevent Iran from rebuilding its nuclear program, to deny Iran the ability to manufacture these very, very large missiles that have been hitting Israel about each one with about a ton of explosives in their warhead and finally to cease bring about the cessation of Iranian support for terrorist proxies throughout the Middle East. They're trying to destroy us even tonight. And originally that was also America's position. I don't think that the Israeli Israelis would agree that almost all the targets have been destroyed in Iran. And I think that the issue is in the end what, what does the day after look like? Tonight the Iranian president issued basically conditions to the United States saying there has to be just an unconditional cease fire, but the United States has to pay reparations to Iran and the United States has to issue guarantees that Iran will never again be attacked. So that gives you, I think an idea of where the, the Iranian mindset is. They do not believe they're on the verge of defeat.

[A]

Okay. Well, Ambassador, and thank you again for joining us on Bloomberg TV and radio. You have suggested that there will be no mountain Suribachi moment in this conflict. Referring to the flag raising on Iwo Jima. When will then how will we know that this war is won?

[J]

Well, they mean one of two ways. One of the Iranian regime says, okay, we're not going to make a nuclear weapon. We're not going to make ballistic missiles that can hit Israel. We're not going to support terror anymore or barring that, a popular uprising or perhaps even a coup within the regime, within the ranks of the IRGC or perhaps the army. Now to achieve that, it may be a long term proposition to be questioned whether the president and the people of the United States are up for that. And here the model would not be, it would not be Iraq and Afghanistan, those, those forever wars, but really the Cold War where the United States remained very steadfast over a long period of time and brought about the fall of the Soviet Union.

[F]

Well, that's incredible to consider because then we are talking quite a longer time horizon than the Trump administration is suggest. Knowing that the administration in the in recent days has been very careful to say regime change essentially is not what they are seeking. But it would be a welcome outcome if it indeed happens from Israel's perspective, knowing the son of the late Ayatollah is now in power. We got our first statement from him today. Is it going to be acceptable to Israel for the younger Khamenei to still be in power in Iran, or would you anticipate that until, until that situation changes, Israel at least will declare that it is not over?

[C]

I think.

[J]

Well, it's not so much the perpet person, it's his position. If his position is to maintain Iran's campaign, which began back in 1979 and reiterated every day since then, to destroy the state of Israel, then the new supreme leader, Mustafa, will also be considered an enemy and, by the way, legitimate target for Israel. And that's certainly, that's. That is on our unassailable right to pursue that. If the Supreme Leader would come out and say, in one way or another, okay, we're going to change direction and we're not going to seek destruction of Israel and our neighbors or the United States of America, it might be something different. I just don't see that happening. I think that those three goals of destroying Israel in the United States and dominating the Middle east are in the DNA of this regime, and it's almost impossible for them to change.

[A]

Interesting, Ambassador. With that said, there are multiple reports today, including one from Reuters, that finds U.S. intelligence indicates Iran's leadership ship is still largely intact and not at risk of collapse, with a multitude of intelligence reports pointing to consistent analysis that the regime is not in danger and retains control of the Iranian public. Is it possible to change that dynamic without going in on the ground?

[J]

It is, but again, it's the long term. I mean, I referenced earlier the Cold War. I think that at some point the intense military stage of this campaign will end, that Iran's missile launchers and drone launchers and factories will be destroyed. And I think that's happening slowly but surely every single day. And eventually they'll run out of these missile launchers and the drones. And then the United States could impose a very punishing and strict naval blockade on Iran, ensure that not a drop of oil gets out, certainly no munitions will get in. And then over the course of a certain period of time, probably a protracted period of time, the Iranian regime will finally wither on the vine and be in a position to be overthrown either by the people or by elements within the regime itself.

[F]

When we consider, Ambassador, that this is no longer just combat operations in and around Iran. Iran obviously has cast a wide net in terms of retaliation to other Gulf states, even as far as Turkey, where NATO has had to intervene. But Israel also has. Has looked to the north, and there is active firing between Israel and Lebanon and Hezbollah specifically.

[E]

Even if.

[F]

If there is some kind of resolution with Iran, the Islamic regime itself, what of that conflict? How is that brought to an end?

[J]

Well, that is a very pertinent question tonight. I was in the north yesterday, and the situation there remains very dire. Last night, the north was hit by about 250 rockets from. From Lebanon. Some of them are quite long range, not just striking the north, but also central Israel. And so I think that the goal there would have to be that even if the United States says, okay, we're ready for a ceasefire with Iran, that Israel has to insist on pressing the campaign against Hezbollah. And there's very specific reason for this. Much of the Israeli north has been rendered uninhabitable by these missile attacks. And unless Hezbollah is decisively defeated and in a way that the Lebanese government can regain control over its own territory, particularly in the south, those areas in northern Israel remain. Some of these cities are ghost cities. It's quite, quite despairing. So that is an intolerable situation for any sovereign state, certainly for the state of Israel. And we hope that the United States will continue to give us the very green light we received up to now in combating Hezbollah.

[A]

Ambassador, with regard to the Iranian regime, I noticed a post on Twitter that was. Was retweeted, reposted, by our ambassador to the UN Mike Waltz. It's from author Saul Sadka, who writes, the regime's top brass seems to have decamped to the distant city of Mashad, as far away from the US Bases and carriers and from Israel as you can get without actually fleeing to Afghanistan. Have you heard that report? Is that the case? And the ambassador retweets, writing, if only we still had Bagram Air Base. Do you agree?

[J]

I don't know about Bagram Air Base, but I wouldn't doubt that the key leaders of the regime, including the supreme leader himself, are either very, very deep underground or as far away from the combat areas as possible. There have been dozens of these leaders who have been eliminated, many 40 of them on the first day of the war. And they're all legitimate targets. And as we know, Iran is deeply, deeply penetrated by the intelligence services of both the United States and Israel. And we tend to know where people are sleeping at night, where people are having lunch during the day. And they must be in a situation of constant fear and constant paranoia, quite legitimately, about who in their entourage is leaking and giving information to the Israelis and to the CIA and targeting them.

[F]

Wow, that's incredible to consider. Ambassador, finally, before we let you go, we have obviously heard repeatedly conflicting timelines from President Trump as to the duration we can expect for this conflict. At this point, nearly two weeks in, would your guess be that this is still weeks more ahead of us, or could it be months or longer?

[J]

I really can't answer that for the United States. I can only answer it for the people of Israel. We are sustaining nightly daily rocket attacks. I run from where I'm talking to you now into the bomb shelter next to me several times during the day and two nights ago it went on all night. We're nowhere near tired, we're nowhere near breaking. We are a very resilient population, very resilient society. And we know that we have no choice in this war, whether fighting against Iran or fighting against Hezbollah. We're in it because there really is no out. The United States has a different set of considerations. It has political considerations. It is far from the Middle East East. But I would only stress that if the war ends with Iran basically in control of the Straits of Hormuz, Iran having humbled oil producers around the Middle east having even humbled NATO because NATO hasn't responded, that that will have very far reaching ramifications for American security. And Iran will rebuild and rebuild its capacities and someday, someday it will threaten the United States much more imminently. And the time to address that threat is not in Europe to come, but now.

[A]

Well, we appreciate your spending time with us and hope you stay safe, Ambassador, come back and see us again. Michael Oren, former Israeli Ambassador to the United States thanks for listening to the Balance of Power podcast. Make sure to subscribe if you haven't already at Apple, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts. And you can find us live every weekday from Washington, D.C. at Noontime [e-mail]

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