US, Iran Truce Awaits Trump Signoff

Summary

Balance of Power – “US, Iran Truce Awaits Trump Signoff”

Bloomberg • May 28, 2026
Hosts: Joe Mathieu, Maura Gillespie
Guests: Tyler Kendall (Bloomberg White House Correspondent), Laura Fink (Democratic Strategist), Mark Pocan (Congressman, WI-2)

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Episode Overview

This episode of Balance of Power centers on the escalating and complex negotiations between the United States and Iran regarding a truce in the Strait of Hormuz and the potential for a broader deal on Iran’s nuclear program. The conversation is set against the backdrop of ongoing military skirmishes, volatile oil markets, record-high gas prices, and the approaching U.S. midterm elections. The hosts and guests analyze the latest reporting, reflect on President Donald Trump’s statements and posture, and discuss the political implications for both parties heading into November.

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Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. State of the US-Iran Truce Negotiations

[00:55-05:28]

• Conflicting Headlines:

  • Axios reports progress in negotiations, sparking brief market optimism.
  • White House pushes back, stating no official deal is finalized as President Trump’s signoff remains pending.
  • Joe Mathieu points out market resilience amid uncertainty:

    “Axios puts a headline up in the morning that says we're close to a deal. The markets take off. White House says… the president hasn't approved of that. Then the whole thing falls apart… and somehow the markets still take off.” (00:55, Joe Mathieu)

• Terms of a Possible Deal:

  • Phased approach: Extend ceasefire, reopen Strait of Hormuz, lift U.S. blockade, and begin separate talks on Iran’s nuclear program.
  • Unrestricted shipping through the Strait, with a 30-day deadline for Iran to remove naval mines.
  • Iran would recommit to not pursuing nuclear weapons, with priority given to the disposition of its highly-enriched uranium.

• Fragility of the Situation:

  • Military actions continue even as talks progress: U.S. airstrikes hit Iranian targets; Iran launches drones at U.S. bases.
  • Both sides threaten retaliation; the situation in the Strait remains tense.
  • Tyler Kendall confirms the presence of Iranian naval mines:

    “The US had a military strike just the other day going after these boats that were laying mines… they're still trying to exert this influence in what is a very dangerous way.” (05:31, Tyler Kendall)

2. President Trump’s Approach and Public Messaging

[07:17-10:25, 13:16-13:34]

• Trump’s Press Q&A—Tone and Themes:

  • Reporters press Trump on deal status and midterms; he appears blasé and unconcerned—even about the potential for escalated military strikes or the effect on Americans’ finances.
  • Notable line:

    “Iran cannot have a nuclear weapon. I'm doing that for the world. I'm not doing it just for us.” (13:16, President Trump)

  • Dismisses importance of midterms:

    “I don’t care about the midterms. … People understand that. They know that very simple.” (13:16, President Trump)

• Domestic Political Impact:

  • Messaging focuses on long-term security versus short-term economic pain.
  • Internal GOP dissent: Some Republicans worry the deal postpones real negotiations on Iran’s nuclear program.
  • Trump’s handling of economy and foreign policy becomes central campaign issue as gas prices remain high.

3. Political Analysis: Early Primaries, Party Dynamics, and Election Implications

[14:26-22:46]

• GOP Reaction and Strategy:

  • Trump’s dismissal of midterms frustrates GOP strategists. Maura Gillespie warns:

    “If you don't care about the midterms, you certainly should.” (15:38, Maura Gillespie)

  • Low turnout in Texas runoff reflects voter disengagement; Trump-backed candidates do well in the primaries, but general election outlook uncertain.

• Democratic Perspective:

  • Laura Fink criticizes Trump’s priorities and spending:

    “He started a war that has costed somewhere between $30 and $100 billion and… close to a trillion if you count the economic impact. … If you're at home trying to pay your bills, you wonder where is the President when it comes to what I'M going through.” (15:46, Laura Fink)

  • Democrats are wary of the GOP’s redraw of congressional maps but note environmental (economic) headwinds could mitigate Republican gerrymandering advantages.

• Redistricting and Voter Choice:

  • Both strategists underscore that less competitive districts and voter disillusionment hurt both parties and democracy at large.

4. Oil Markets and Economic Fallout

[00:55, 17:39-19:17, 26:00-26:36]

• Oil Prices and Market Reaction:

  • Despite ongoing military tensions, S&P 500 remains at record highs; crude oil prices inch upward but stay below $100/barrel.
  • Energy sector volatility persists, with global ramifications (notably for Asian trading partners).
  • Bob McNally's market assessment: If strait reopens, “It’s going to take a couple of months for energy flows to rationalize to where they were before this all began.” (17:39 paraphrase)

• Gas Prices and Policy Tools:

  • Host discusses prospects of a federal gas tax holiday; Trump appears confused by the phrase, and doubts remain about its efficacy:

    “Some economists have cast doubt on how much this could really impact retail gasoline… it takes time for prices to trickle down.” (10:03, Tyler Kendall paraphrase)

5. Congressional & Defense Policy: Mark Pocan Interview

[26:36-34:21]

• Congressional Oversight and War Powers:

  • Rep. Mark Pocan (D-WI) lambasts Trump’s handling of the war:

    “This has been a war of choice from the very beginning. … The fact that we're paying almost $2 more per gallon for gas, … spent over $90 billion on this war. And we may not even get to where we were with the deal we had under President Obama.” (27:21, Mark Pocan)

• Defense Spending Critique:

  • Questions sustainability of massive Pentagon budgets; criticizes the lack of audit and inefficient defense contracts.

    “The Pentagon… can only account for 55% of their equipment, and yet we keep giving them money… Now the President wants a trillion and a half dollars for essentially defense contractors.” (29:47, Mark Pocan)

  • Colorful moment:

    “When the toilets get clogged, they literally have to flush $400,000 worth of acids down the toilet to unclog them, which is the definition of flushing money down the toilet.” (31:29, Mark Pocan)

• Legislative Prospects and Accountability:

  • War Powers Resolution nearing enough bipartisan support to pass.
  • Pocan: Real test of congressional power if the administration ignores the mandate.

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Notable Quotes and Memorable Moments

| Timestamp | Speaker | Quote/Highlight | |-------------|--------------------|--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | 02:36 | President Trump | "Iran… they want very much to make a deal. So far they haven't gotten there. We're not satisfied with it, but we will be." | | 03:00 | Joe Mathieu | "Could we have a deal when we're shooting at each other?" | | 05:31 | Tyler Kendall | "…they are still trying to exert this influence in what is a very dangerous way." | | 13:16 | President Trump | "Iran cannot have a nuclear weapon. I'm doing that for the world. I'm not doing it just for us." | | 15:38 | Maura Gillespie | "If you don't care about the midterms, you certainly should." | | 15:46 | Laura Fink | "He started a war that has costed somewhere between $30 and $100 billion and, and close to a trillion if you count the economic impact." | | 27:21 | Mark Pocan | "This has been a war of choice from the very beginning. … I wish I could tell you there was any clarity with this, but with Donald Trump, there's rarely clarity." | | 31:29 | Mark Pocan | "…when the toilets get clogged, they literally have to flush $400,000 worth of acids down the toilet to unclog them, which is the definition of flushing money down the toilet." |

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Timestamps for Important Segments

• [00:55] – US-Iran deal rumors, market reaction, and conflicting reports.
• [02:36] – President Trump on Iranian intentions and the US negotiating stance.
• [05:28] – Details of possible deal and military developments in the Strait of Hormuz.
• [13:16] – Trump’s statement on midterms and Iran’s nuclear ambitions.
• [14:26] – GOP strategists analyze implications of Trump’s posture.
• [15:46] – Democratic critique of Trump’s foreign and domestic policy.
• [17:39] – Impact of oil market volatility on voter sentiment.
• [26:36] – Congressman Mark Pocan on the war, defense spending, and congressional war powers.
• [31:29] – Pocan’s memorable quip about Pentagon waste.

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Additional Topics

• Primary Cycles and Candidate Dynamics:
  • Coverage of the crowded Michigan Democratic primary stage and speculation about Governor Whitmer’s 2028 presidential ambitions; analysis of both Democratic and Republican candidate pipelines.

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Summary Tone

The tone is urgent, analytical, and occasionally irreverent—reflecting both the gravity of war-and-peace issues and the absurdities of modern political discourse. The hosts and guests provide inside-the-Beltway insights with a sharp eye on both policy implications and electoral consequences.

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For listeners seeking a deeper understanding of the current US-Iran impasse, its political context, and how Washington is wrestling with the confluence of foreign crises and domestic electoral pressure, this episode is a must-hear.

Transcript

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[Maura Gillespie]

Bloomberg

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[Joe Matthew]

You made it to Little Friday. This week is moving along, right? You had a long weekend. I hope you did. At least it's Thursday and we've a very similar news cycle than we had the past couple of days with a gallon of gas going for $4.42. That feel cheap. Don't ask me about diesel, because we've got our eyes on oil prices like we do every day. Today they're higher. Even though there was some early optimism about a deal, Axios strikes again. It does seem like a thing, a daily thing, right? Axios puts a headline up in the morning that says we're close to a deal. The markets take off. White House says, well, the president hasn't approved of that. Then the whole thing falls apart by the end of the day and somehow the markets still take off. We are right at record highs and S&P 500 still trading above 7,500, even with crude oil tiptoeing higher still below $100 a barrel. We're going to get into all of this with Tyler because as is frequently the case when we start this program at noon, we're not really sure exactly where we stand with talks with conflicting messages from both sides. Why don't we go back to where we started yesterday in the Cabinet Room, because Tyler was in there with everybody else. They cram them all in this. It's not. There's no room, you know, it's this big long table. All the reporters are made to stand on one side against the wall. It's like a high school dance. Stand against the wall and hope that somebody asks you to ask a question. Tyler got a couple yesterday, by the way, as you heard live here on Bloomberg, with the president being asked repeatedly, what's the status of the peace talks and will we get a deal? Here's what he said.

[President Donald Trump]

Iran. Iran is very much intent. They want very much to make a deal. So far they haven't gotten there. We're not satisfied with it, but we will be. Right now I think it looks like they want to just make a deal. They want to. I don't think they have a choice. They're just going back to the Internet because they're getting clobbered. Their economy is in free fall.

[Joe Matthew]

They're going back to the Internet. I guess they've been putting some Internet service back on. The headline on the terminal, US Iran agree to extend truce pending Trump backing Axios says it's an Axios report still at this point. But could we have a deal when we're shooting at each other? Because that was the headline we woke up to this morning. The US striking Iranian military targets for the second time this week. And you've got air raid sirens going off in Kuwait. Said it responded to missile and drone threats from Iran. Cease fire. US forces shot down four Iranian drones, fired at a commercial ship and hit a launch unit near the Strait of Hormuz. The cease fire is intact. Iran targeted the US base from which the strikes came. We got four of them in Kuwait. You know, that's why this is so delicate right now. And with the market near all time highs, we explore the possibilities again. We asked Tyler to come over from the White House today. Sometimes it's hard. She's standing there on the lawn looking in the tent with the bright lights. We can actually see each other today. Tyler, welcome back. It's great to see you.

[Maura Gillespie]

Thank you.

[Joe Matthew]

You can't see anything over there. It's very bright looking in the tent. I've done that before. It's not fun.

[Tyler Kendall]

Well, that's what happens when the back is so exposed because the White House is white. For some context here on how we do it.

[Joe Matthew]

Okay, so let's add to that what is the brightest, most painful shot in Washington. It is. The US Supreme Court.

[Tyler Kendall]

Knew you were going to say that. I've done that too.

[Joe Matthew]

Little test there while you do it more often than I do. Anyway, welcome to the comfort of the climate controlled studio. Axios out in front again. You heard my whole setup here. This is like rinse and repeat. Is anything new?

[Tyler Kendall]

Well, a lot of the Axios reporting is what we've been reporting. We know that the administration is seeking what appears to be this phased approach where we would first see an extension of the ceasefire. The Strait of Hormuz would be reopened. The US would lift its neighbor a blockade, and then that could kick off a essentially delayed phase of negotiations on potential curbs to Iran's nuclear program. When it comes to the Axios reporting, though, we're getting a little bit more of the finer points that could be involved in a potential deal, including that it is imperative that there will be unrestricted access when it comes to the Strait of Hormuz, which means no tolls, no harassment. But also importantly, Iran would only have a 30 day time period in order to remove any of the mines that they've laid. So that's a little bit more of a firmer.

[Joe Matthew]

That also confirmed that there are mines. There's been questions about that. Right.

[Tyler Kendall]

Well, I mean, considering that the US had a military strike just the other day going after these boats that were laying mines, according to centcom, it was clear that they are still trying to exert this influence in what is a very dangerous way. Just underscoring how fragile the situation still remains in the strait. It is also interesting because it comes on the heels of a lot of other efforts that Iran has been doing recently in order to tighten its grip. We saw this new authority established where seeing the moving forward with what is being called navigational services fees, what feels like a rebranded toll system. And we had Iranian state media earlier today confirming that the IRGC has let through 26 commercial vessels in the last 24 hours and vowed severe retaliation if the US messes or disrupts, I think was the word that they used their efforts to exert control over the strait so publicly. The sides feel very far apart though we have heard from the administration that they are moving towards a diplomatic effort. So perhaps the Axios report helps to advance that narrative. There were a few other things inside the memorandum of understanding will include an Iranian commitment not to pursue a nuclear weapon. Doesn't really feel new considering that Iran's public negotiating stance has been that they're not pursuing a nuclear weapon despite Western intelligence assessments to the contrary. But importantly, Joe, I will pull out this point in. In the 60 day negotiating window. What is going to be prioritized is what happens to that stockpile of highly enriched uranium. So it feels like perhaps this is giving us a little bit clearer of a roadmap and how things could develop if and when we see it.

[Joe Matthew]

Did you bring the memo? You have the memo of understanding right here. Wow.

[Tyler Kendall]

If only.

[Joe Matthew]

This is why we have her come over from the White House. We got to clear up a couple of things here. You were in the room with him yesterday. He didn't seem agitated as sometimes he might be in the Back and forth with reporters seemed for sort of blase. And it got to the point where cuz, you know, he said we're all, well, maybe we'll just have to resume hitting him hard or maybe we won't. Was kind of his attitude when it came to a couple of other things though, including questions about the midterm elections. That's the new T shirt that Democrats are making up today. I don't care about the midterms, he said. I think it was Rachel Scott who asked him. You guys were standing right next to each other. Bringing us back to that whole I don't care about Americans finances. It's kind of a similar vibe. Republicans heads explode when they hear that stuff. Does he not care about the midterms or is he trying to make another point involving Iran?

[Tyler Kendall]

It feels like the latter. It feels like he's trying to convince Americans. I don't even think I can say it feels like that. We've heard from U.S. officials. He's trying to convince Americans that this, what the White House has called a short term disruption will be worth it for the long term gain of preventing Iran to have a nuclear weapon. The issue that's coming up even within members of the Republican Party like those more hawkish voices on Capitol Hill, like Senators Lindsey Graham, Ted Cruz, Roger Wicker, is that the contours of this deal appear to be postponing that dialogue about what potential curbs to a nuclear program will look like. And that has sowed some doubt in this. Also, the idea of short term, I mean, how many weeks are we into this? You mentioned higher gas prices. What sort of pressure does the administration face on the political front now if we do continue down the lane of politics? So far, President Trump has a pretty good track record when it comes to the primary season. All of the candidates he's been backing have been doing well in the Republican primaries. The question is how does that translate when they're head to head with Democrats? As we get closer to November, I will quickly add, while the polling is not in President Trump's favor when it comes to discontent with the economy, it's not necessarily great either with how Americans feel that Democrats would handle the economy. So they also have some room to make up on their side as well.

[Joe Matthew]

Wow. Really interesting. Fascinating. Actually, to clean up one last thing, you asked the president about a gas tax holiday. We're at still about four and a half dollars, as I mentioned, just shy of. And there has been a thought. He said it himself. To suspend the federal gas tax is something that he would pursue and he's got Republicans and Democrats ready with legislation. You asked him about a gas tax holiday and he looked puzzled.

[Tyler Kendall]

Yeah.

[Joe Matthew]

And he said a gas tax holiday. He repeated it back to you as if the terminology was foreign to him. Is this a matter of semantics?

[Maura Gillespie]

I.

[Tyler Kendall]

Perhaps I did clarify that. I meant a suspension of the federal gas tax on a temporary basis, which is what the holiday would be.

[Joe Matthew]

I think he thought you were proposing a new federal holiday.

[Tyler Kendall]

It could be. It could be a good idea, but we'll have to see. Because this idea, while it does have bipartisan support, some economists have cast doubt on how much this could really impact retail gasoline. We know that it takes time for prices to trickle down, so it's definitely something to watch. He said that they may be talking about it, but that ultimately he wants to give negotiations one to two more weeks, in his words, before they make any such decision.

[Joe Matthew]

Boy, really interesting. We don't have time for Harambe. Did you see the Harambe tribute on the White House Twitter page? That's an official one, right?

[Tyler Kendall]

I don't know. I haven't seen it.

[Maura Gillespie]

All right.

[Joe Matthew]

No, we're not. Look, there it is. If you're with us on YouTube, this is real. The official White House X account posting a tribute to Harambe, the 17 year old gorilla who 10 years ago today was shot dead by the Cincinnati Zoo's emergency response team. The White House calling him a true patriot. With apologies to Harambe and Tyler for that matter. I'm Joe Matthew in Washington. You picked the right day to join us. Yep, there she is. Tyler Kendall. She's going to head back to the White House, presumably.

[Maura Gillespie]

Yep, that's where I'm headed next in our next hour.

[Joe Matthew]

It's amazing how this stuff works. Stay with us on Balance of Power. We'll have much more coming up after this.

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[Joe Matthew]

Looking forward to the big deb a little bit later on. Can we watch this at work, James? It starts at 2:30 in the afternoon. Democratic primary, Michigan. This ought to be a doozy, right? McMorrow, Stevens, El Sayed, among others. That's a crowded stage. That's going to be a fascinating race to watch as we talk more about the midterms getting into the throes of the primary cycle. Just don't ask President Trump, as he says out loud, he doesn't care. It was quite a moment yesterday and we recall his statement in the driveway a couple of weeks ago. You know how we do this. Everyone's going to connect the dots. When he said that he didn't wasn't concerned about Americans finances, the answers came from the same question. Reporters keep hitting him on this right Are gas prices or Americans finances? Are the midterms going to be enough reason for you to cut a deal with Iran? Is that informing your view here? Maybe hasten the announcement of something? The answer is consistently no. Here's what he said yesterday in the Cabinet meeting.

[President Donald Trump]

They're going to outweigh me. You know, we'll outweigh him. He's got the midterms. I don't care about the midterms. Look what happened last night. That was the prelude to the midterms. People understand that. They know that very simple. Iran cannot have a nuclear weapon. I'm doing that for the world. I'm not doing it just for us.

[Joe Matthew]

The prelude to the midterms referring of course to the defeat of 24 year veteran Republican Senator John Cornyn in Texas, having endorsed Ken Paxton. The question is, will Ken Paxton beat a Democrat and more broadly, will other MAGA candidates actually be able to close the deal in a general election cycle, especially if the president doesn't care about the midterms. We get into this with our panel, we've got a great one for you today. Republican strategist Maura Gillespie is with me here in Washington, founder and CEO of Bluestack Strategies. And Laura Fink, Democratic strategist, founder, CEO of Rebel Communications. It's great to have both of you with us here. And Maura, I'll start with you as our Republican. This is making a GOP heads explode in Washington. When you hear the leader of the party say he doesn't care about the midterms. How do you strategize around that?

[Maura Gillespie]

It's tough. I'll be honest. I think that when you're looking at midterms that have already, primaries have already shown that Donald Trump has a big voice there. Right. He has a big impact. But I think it's short term. It's short sighted by looking at the midterms and looking at primaries as they're going to reflect in a general election. We saw that with Ken Paxton, his endorsement in the last minute. A lot of money was spent. A lot of money was already spent in the primary, but a lot's going to be spent.

[Joe Matthew]

That's right.

[Maura Gillespie]

You know, against Telarico and he felt so confident yesterday, saying that, you know, look what I did in Texas, okay, but what happens when it comes to November and people are still feeling the pains of the grocery cost, of gas prices, of not being able to buy a home. And so the reality check there is that people didn't show up in Texas. I mean, the runoff was what, 5% of the voting population showed up for that runoff, down 60% from who showed up in March for the primary itself. That's a small fraction of the population. And John Cornyn said so in his concession speech. A small percentage dictated the outcome, but that's what happens if you don't have to vote. And those who voted for Donald Trump are frustrated with him. They don't feel at home in the Democratic Party or Democrat candidates. So they may just very well stay home. And so if you don't care about the midterms, you certainly should.

[Joe Matthew]

So what's your thought on this, Laura, other than, you know, are you making bumper stickers and T shirts with that line on it already?

[Laura Fink]

Well, I don't think that might be spiking the football a little bit too early. We know that there are a lot of environmental factors that go into this. But I really appreciate Maura being straight with both the President and her Republican colleagues because the President has been clear that he does not care about affordability. He denied his existence, and now he's saying he doesn't care about the pocketbooks of American people. He's building a ballroom costing billions of dollars. He started a war that has costed somewhere between 30 and $100 billion and, and close to a trillion if you count the economic impact. This is someone who, like his legislative agenda, is putting a slush fund in place to take taxpayer dollars and pay it to people who he determines worthy. A lot of them criminals and convicted criminals. So I just, you take all of that together and if you're at home trying to pay your bills, you wonder where, where is the President when it comes to what I'M going through. And I think that's those are the questions that Repub going to have to answer on the trail. And I think it's going to be really tall order because they've been standing with this president the entire time and not saying a peep about any of it.

[Joe Matthew]

Well, so the conversation goes on here with a war that's underway and doesn't appear to be ending anytime soon. If you listen to what the oil executives say more, whether it's Exxon or Chevron, if we reopen the strait today, Bob McNally at Rapidan will say the same thing. It's going to take a couple of months for energy flows to rationalize to where they were before this all began. So let's say it ended today. It's going to take us till, what, Labor Day to get that back together. And you know where I'm going, what happens after Labor Day? I mean, you're doing you've got early voting underway. You're doing your door knockers are out. A lot of decisions, in fact, have already been made. If we're still paying four and a half, five dollars a gallon, what does that mean come November?

[Maura Gillespie]

There's only so much ground that people can make up in the month of October leading into the election. Right. So Capitol Hill largely goes quiet here in October because people are going back to the districts to run for office and to campaign. A lot of decisions are already made. People have already baked it in that they spend their whole summer paying $5 for gas because it hasn't gone down. And their summer travels were upended or at least incurring more costs than they were planning for. But when you look at it and what Laura just said, too, it's not just about the war in Iran, the costs that are happening. It's the separation of things that Donald Trump is doing versus what the Republicans in Congress are doing. Are they representing their constituents? Are they serving the needs of the people that they swore an oath to defend and to serve? And if they can't answer that question when they're home in October or home in August or this summer, that's going to be their problem. It's not necessarily just pledging loyalty to Donald Trump. Yes. That may get you through a primary. That's not going to get you through a general, especially at a time we're facing right now. And so a decision needs to be made. Are you going to blindly say, like Ken Paxton, that your biggest attribute is that you say yes to whatever Donald Trump tells you? Is that your running platform or is it I'm going to serve the constituents here at home in Illinois X District or whatever it may be and actually address those needs? That's a choice that every congressman person needs to make. But also I'd say for Republicans, now is that choice. Now is that moment to decide.

[Joe Matthew]

So then there becomes a question as to whether more Republicans will draw that line as we get out of primary season and get into the general election cycle. Here is your is your thought, Laura, that that will happen, or this is Trump's Republican Party straight through November?

[Laura Fink]

Well, I think the challenge that Republican elected officials have is that they've got to stand against Donald Trump. They've got to say, you know, in debates and on air and in interviews and with journalists like yourself, you've got to say, hey, no, I think Trump was wrong about that. I would have done things differently. And you risk, you know, drawing the ire of Trump or the lack of funding, etc. I think that they have a line to toe. I think what they're counting on and what I think Democrats are rightly intimidated by and afraid of is the Supreme Court decision that just got handed down and the fact that redistricting and the gerrymandered districts, Republicans have a sincere advantage there. So even in the face of the environmentals, the districts are drawn so tightly in Republicans favor. The question is, can Democrats overcome that gerrymandering in those districts? Because Republicans have been doing this for a long time, but I think have won that redistricting war, if that's, you know, so the starting line is a little muddy. The question is if Donald Trump's numbers continue to tank, if the economy continues to be problematic, which by all accounts, unfortunately, you know, for, for working people, it remains. The stock market's flying, working people are struggling. And so if this continues to go on, the wind's going to be in the face of Republicans. So even with those redrawn districts, the question will not be, do they lose the House, but by how many votes? And the question, again, I don't think we're already there. Continued.

[Joe Matthew]

Oh, sorry, you don't think we're already there, Laura, like you redraw the maps all you want. I'm not sure what the advantage is at this point. I can't keep score anymore. I don't know if Republicans are up 4, 10, I don't know what it is, but if Democrats think they can turn 30 seats, if this is a wave election, then redistricting doesn't matter.

[Laura Fink]

Well, I mean, it used to not matter, but the problem is the numbers are because of the aggression with which Republicans have redistricted. The numbers are different than in past cycles and they have a more sincere advantage. But you're right way of elections can surmount that. But the question is do you come in with such a razor thin majority or majority that you can't act and do you take the Senate or do you not? And those are the decisions that that will be made. But, but I don't think redistricting is a wash because the environmentals are so tough. I think it is a real challenge for Democrats and they've got to be sober about that as they look forward.

[Joe Matthew]

Well, that's interesting, Laura, because that actually goes against what a lot of Democrats have said on the program and even some Republicans who are trying to keep score here and look at the historical implications of this midterm cycle. How about you more at this point? I mean if this is a wave election, will redistricting be a footnote?

[Maura Gillespie]

It will be in the long term picture, I think because it's creating less competitive districts and what that means for everyday voters is that you have less choices. We're already seeing, as I mentioned before, this small percentage who actually participates in the primary. What point would you feel as though is necessary to even participate if it's already been decided for you? And that's the problem not only here and now, but long term having less choices. You're feeling less enfranchised to be part of this. And that's not good for our democracy, that's not good for our republic. And I think that I have a lot of concerns for Republicans moving forward at least of this cycle, this midterm. I don't know about the Senate. I'm not there yet. I'll have to stay tuned of how I feel about the Senate. It's going to change hands. But the House I think because Mike Johnson hasn't made a foothold in having any stances that he can take personally other than yes, I support Donald Trump and that's my policy plans for the year. I think people are just looking for someone to be an adult in the room and right now neither side seems to be that person.

[Joe Matthew]

Interesting you watching that Michigan debate today.

[Congressman Mark Pocan]

Speaking of which, I'm very curious to

[Maura Gillespie]

see how Stevens does.

[Joe Matthew]

For sure there's a lot of pressure

[Maura Gillespie]

on her, I think a lot of

[Joe Matthew]

pressure from establishment Democrats and I guess there was too much pressure, I don't know when it comes to Governor Whitmer. This is a really interesting headline today with only a Few months left to her term. The governor says she is not going to stage a run for president in 2028. This is somebody who is considered to be on the short list and would be a formidable Democratic candidate. Laura Fink, how does that hit you?

[Laura Fink]

Well, this is the first I've heard of it. I didn't catch that particular headline. But I think you're going to see more of that as people assess the field and their viability. And Gretchen Whitmer is a young candidate, so perhaps she thinks she's going to do better in a future election. But it is surprising, actually, because she, she was considered one of the frontrunners and she has been positioning herself for a long time to sort of take on that challenge. And so. But I think you're going to see a lot more of that. And you don't always get the reasons why people choose not to keep their hat in the ring. You hear people back out for family reasons, et cetera. But a lot of times it takes years before you figure out what the real story was.

[Joe Matthew]

I want to have impact, she said in a statement. I want to do good work, but I'm also looking forward to taking a little bit of a break in of front, thinking about it, not jumping right into something. So you're running against Gavin Newsom.

[Maura Gillespie]

I can't help it. When I think of Governor Whitmore, I think of what that photo she did with that influencer with the Dorito where she's feeding influencer a Dorito as if it's the body of Christ. I'll never get that image out of my head.

[Joe Matthew]

I thought you were going to say the binders hiding behind the binders.

[Maura Gillespie]

And the great one either. So I think between those two photos, if I were a, you know, maybe

[Joe Matthew]

take a couple of years to, I

[Maura Gillespie]

would campaign heavily against that with those photos. Just blast them everywhere, because that's pretty. Yeah.

[Joe Matthew]

Well, if J.D. vance and Marco Rubio are the shortlist on the Republican side, you have Gavin Newsom. Right. You have Governor Shapiro. Is it all governors on the Democratic

[Maura Gillespie]

side that you're looking? West Moore. People are talking about him.

[Joe Matthew]

Right.

[Maura Gillespie]

So a lot of it does seeming governors, I mean, which is a little bit surprising. But we'll see.

[Joe Matthew]

We'll see. We'll have a lot more to talk about on that one. But pretty interesting development here today to see Governor Whitmer say no to 2028. Stay with us on balance of power. We'll have much more coming up after this.

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[Joe Matthew]

It's a market that's gone through a couple of different phases today based on headlines coming out of Washington. As we woke up to news today that the United States had resumed strikes against Iran, several targets not unlike this time yesterday. But then, of course, Kelly, the news cycle started to change a lot. And now Bloomberg is talking to sources who say we may well be on the verge of a deal to extend the cease fire by 60 days, reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and continue a side negotiation about the future of Iran's nuclear program. The problem is we've heard reports like this before and it's unclear what we should be taking seriously.

[Bloomberg Host]

Well, and whether or not we take it seriously might depend on what we hear from President Trump about it. He's not commenting directly on this today, and our understanding via sources familiar is that he still needs to approve these terms. So as we consider what these terms may be in the prospect of their approval or denial, we turn now to Democratic Congressman mark Pocan of Wisconsin's 2nd congressional district, who is joining us now on Bloomberg TV and radio. Congressman, welcome back to Balance of Power. As we consider the terms as we at least understand them to be a 60 day cease fire extension, within 30 days, Iran would be removing mines from the Strait of Hormuz. Commercial shipping would flow unrestricted. Once again, are these terms you believe the United States should agree to?

[Congressman Mark Pocan]

I have no idea where this president is with this war. You know, this has been a war of choice from the very beginning. There is no imminent threat to the United States. We've seen this same act before. Whether or not it's real this time, I don't know. They were just exchanging fire within the last 24 hours. All I do know is that this president has fumbled this entire war in a most magnificent way. The fact that we're paying almost $2 more per gallon for gas, the fact that we've doubled diesel costs for my Farmers in Wisconsin doubled the cost of airline fuel, spent over $90 billion on this war. And we may not even get to where we were with the deal we had under President Obama. I wish I could tell you there was any clarity with this, but with Donald Trump, there's rarely clarity.

[Joe Matthew]

Well, Congressman, with that said, and I know you've been clear calling this the president's unnecessary war with Iran, if we were in a world in which you were advising the White House, would you withdraw forces now, or do you need to continue that pressure to find a diplomatic solution?

[Laura Fink]

Yeah.

[Congressman Mark Pocan]

You know, the problem is they went into this without a plan. We had constituents that were caught over there. Clearly, there was no plan. We dealt very directly with some people on that. There's no plan on how to get out of this. They didn't really anticipate what was going to happen at the rates of Hormuz. And we're not just affecting American consumers, but some of our best trading partners around the country, South Korea, Japan, they don't have natural energy sources. 70% of their energy comes through the Straits of Hormuz. We're hurting those people that are buying things directly from the United States, which hurts American companies. I just think Donald Trump has to. I know it's hard, but put the ego aside. You know, he is the narcissist in chief, and try to understand that this has been a complete debacle and that we've got to reverse course as quickly as possible.

[Bloomberg Host]

Well, it is a question of how quickly is possible, given our position here in the fate of. Of a lot of commercial and energy flows, particularly for the global economy in the balance. Congressman, we still have American troops in theater, at least for the time being. And the Pentagon has not yet sent you and your colleagues a supplemental funding request. Do you have any idea as to when exactly that could come and what that number would look like and whether or not you would approve it? I know you've advocated for less defense spending, not more.

[Congressman Mark Pocan]

Yeah, look, six years ago, we started Barbara Lee from California and I started a Pentagon spending reduction caucus when we were spending roughly 650, plus or minus $20 billion on defense to try to keep it in check. They failed the last eight audits. They can only account for 55% of their equipment, and yet we keep giving them money. And that was to hold it in. Then we're at a trillion doll six years later, and the President wants a trillion and a half dollars for essentially defense contractors. This isn't really money that's going to the military. A Small part of it is. But most of this is going to defense contractors, so we'll see what they give us. But many of us are really concerned because every dollar that's going towards the Pentagon is not going to health care or housing or veterans because veterans dollars are separate than defense dollars. So, you know, a lot of us, especially me on Appropriations, are very concerned about that. We think this is pretty irresp responsible spending. And now he's cost us at least $90 billion more that we didn't need to have had to spend.

[Joe Matthew]

Well, Congressman, you agree with Steve Ellis at the group Taxpayers for Common Sense out without a with a statement following the House committee revealing details of this proposal. The nation cannot afford this bloat, he writes. We're up to our neck in debt with interest payments now surpassing $1 trillion a year in interest rates rising. Meanwhile, the Pentagon, which still can't pass an audit, wants to spend taxpayer dollars on a gilded battleship that cuts against its own vision for a more agile and distributed naval force. What do Democrats do? If that's the case, then can you get to this in committee or will Republicans in the majority make this a law?

[Congressman Mark Pocan]

Well, this is one where the public, I think, needs to get a little bit involved because a trillion and a half dollars for the Pentagon is as much as the next 35 nations combined. That's a lot to be spending, a lot more than we need to be spending. And that is in lieu of other things, including middle class tax breaks, in lieu of health care, in lieu of education, lieu of housing, in lieu of veterans and so many other programs. So I think people really do need to have a bigger concern. And just to give you an idea of some of the spending that happens and why it is a boondoggle in many ways. The most recent class of aircraft carrier, the Ford class, when the toilets get clogged, they literally have to flush $400,000 worth of acids down the toilet to unclog them, which is the definition of flushing money down the toilet. We need to get a better grasp on how much we're spending on defense, period. But right now I don't have a lot of confidence in Pete Hegseth, a former Fox News host who now is running the Department of Defense. I don't think think they have a game plan of what they're doing, and I think everyone is actually seeing that happen in real time.

[Bloomberg Host]

Well, as we consider whether everyone is seeing the things you are seeing, Congressman, it does seem that more Republicans are starting to become wary of being mired in this conflict in the Middle East. We saw the speaker polling a vote on the War Powers Resolution before the Memorial Day recess. But that is going to have to come to the floor when you return. Do you expect that it will pass?

[Congressman Mark Pocan]

Yeah, I think we're very close to it passing. It already was. Was very, very close. The Senate did just pass. Right. So I think we're on the cusp of it, which is why it got pulled last week. They played a game with saying the number of days that they needed to have us vote on it. But, you know, I think there are enough Republicans to join. And I believe this time it will be every single Democrat to make sure that we're doing what the Constitution says, which is Congress initiates any war and therefore the War Powers Resolution is so needed. I'm sure that's why Donald Trump's trying to quickly get something put together to avoid that. But at the same time, we want to make sure this is done right and it's past time Congress get involved.

[Joe Matthew]

What happens if the administration just blows right through it? How do you hold the White House accountable?

[Congressman Mark Pocan]

Well, and that's where we're going to be able to see what power Congress actually has. Constitution makes us a co equal branch of government. Speaker Mike Johnson might want us to be a subservient branch, but I think there are enough Republicans and Democrats who don't believe that that is the case, that we should be following the Constitution. And that means, you know, it is Congress's ability to deal with this. So I think that vote very likely could be next week. And, you know, hopefully we can bring some sanity to what's happening because right now the president has fumbled this miserably. And, you know, I don't want it to cost more American or Iranian lives.

[Joe Matthew]

With the view from Madison, Congressman Mark Pocan, Democrat from Wisconsin, 2nd District. It's good to have you back, Congressman on Bloomberg. It's been some time. Thanks for listening to the Balance of Power podcast. Make sure to subscribe if you haven't already at Apple, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts. And you can find us live every weekday from Washington, D.C. at noontime [e-mail] when you're running a business, the best days are the ones where priorities stay on track. For midsize and large companies, risk can affect multiple parts of the organization at once, from property and liability to cyber and regulatory challenges. At that level, managing risk becomes an ongoing discipline. At the Hartford, the focus is on helping businesses manage risk before it turns into something more disruptive. And when losses do happen. That work is paired with insurance coverage shaped by years of underwriting, risk engineering, and claims experience. Learn [e-mail] riskmitigation policies provided by Hartford Fire Insurance Company and its property and casualty affiliates, Hartford, Connecticut find home wherever you roam at Sonesta Es and Simply Suites, where longer stays feel comfortable, flexible, and easy. Stretch out and enjoy spacious accommodations and homelike amenities designed to help you settle in and stay productive or relaxed for however long you need. And when you're a Sonesta TravelPass member, staying at Sonesta Es in Simply Suites means earning points toward free nights, upgrades, and more with every eligible stay. Go to Sonesta.com to book your stay and unlock the best rates with Sonesta Travel Pass Here today, roam tomorrow. Join [e-mail] terms and conditions apply.