Tyler Kendall (2:50)

Well, at this moment, it appears that it was almost a check in ahead of President Trump's visit to Beijing in April. We're a few months out from that. We know this is going to be a highly anticipated visit for President Trump that he's been touting ever since he struck that deal in South Korea late last year. Now, in terms of deliverables, it sounds like we raised the threshold of how China is going to be purchasing U.S. soybeans. So far, they've purchased about 12 million tons. President Trump says that they have committed to 20 million tons by the end of this harvest season. We know that enforcement mechanisms for pledged agricultural purchases like this has been something that the US has really grappled with in recent years. So that's going to be a metric that we watch really closely. He also outlined that we can expect 25 million million tons by next harvest year, though that's not necessarily new. The US treasury secretary has been out previewing essentially that, that that's the, the aims that they're going to be looking for. The pair also discussed Taiwan, also the war between Russia and Ukraine. That's notable, Joe, because it appears that Chinese President Xi Jinping was also busy this morning because before he had this phone call with President Trump, he had a video call with the Russian President, Vladimir Putin, in which they, they touted the ties between those two countries when it comes to political ties, but also trade ties. So it appears that perhaps he detailed some of those comments with President Trump on the phone earlier today.

Joe Matthew (4:15)

Critical minerals constantly in the conversation with this administration in the name of national security. And we've told you about this critical minerals stockpile that the president has been pursuing. It's $12 billion in seed money, cobalt, gallium, other elements that are used in everything from making telephones to jet engines as opposed to weaponry. We talked to Roger Krishnamoorthy, the Democratic congressman on the China Select Committee, about this last evening. Here's what he said. What we know is over and over again, the Chinese Communist Party destroys their competition by flooding the market with critical minerals at cost, even beneath the cost of production. And so if you have price floors, you can keep our businesses intact and we can do it among our trusted partners, potentially. But then again, you can't, like, have chaotic trade policy and you can't talk about invading Greenland and dumb things like that. That just hurt our broader initiatives, such as on critical minerals. Now, Tyler, you've got new reporting on this With a number of nations getting involved, how broad will this stockpile be?

Tyler Kendall (5:20)

Well, I'm glad we played that sound from the congressman there because a senior administration official tells me that one of the first steps here is that we're going to start to see nations talk about this idea of a price floor. The idea here being when it comes to imports of critical minerals that could help counteract against China flooding the market and eating into western firms profits. Now today we saw the Trump administration host 55 countries at the State Department for this critical minerals summit. We've gotten some tangible agreements. I think we can say they're being called critical mineral action plans. So they're not necessarily binding agreements, but there's one trilateral one, one with the European Union, Japan and the US and then one between the US And Mexico. So something to watch as this keeps developing and the US Tries to use bolstering our supply chains to counter, of course, where we started this conversation.

Joe Matthew (6:11)

So it's another framework that could end up being a plan, I guess. Tyler, thank you so much. Bloomberg's Tyler Kendall with us live in Washington. As we consider the other major headline coming out of the administration today by way of Minneapolis, the president's borders are. Tom Holman still in Minneapolis announcing not only a calming of nerves but an actual withdrawal of ICE forces at least some of those agents who are on the ground. Listen, given this increase in unprecedented collaboration.

Public.com Disclosures Announcer (6:40)

And as a result of the need.

Joe Matthew (6:42)

For less law enforcement officers to do.

Public.com Disclosures Announcer (6:43)

This work in a safer environment, I.

Rick Davis (6:48)

Have announced effective immediately, we will draw.

Joe Matthew (6:51)

Down 700 people effected today, 700 law.

Rick Davis (6:57)

Enforcement personnel.

Joe Matthew (7:00)

And more if local authorities better cooperate with ice. According to Tom Homan. This is a very delicate moment in American politics and of course it's coming against the backdrop of a big debate here in Washington, D.C. about putting new restrictions and what restrictions should be put on ICE agents, whether it be demasking body cameras, which the department is already in the process of doing. The use of warrants though, and some other elements are making this very controversial. With only nine days to figure it out, that's the continuing resolution for the Department of Homeland Security. But as we consider this clash between local and federal authorities, not just Democrats and Republicans, we wanted to have a conversation with Mitch Landrieu, the former mayor of New Orleans who came into office just in time to rebuild and recover from Hurricane Katrina, went on to work in the Biden administration. Of course, you heard our conversations with Mayor Landrieu talking about the implementation of the infrastructure law, which almost feels quaint at this point, but I'll remind you as well that after the Charleston shooting in 2015, he led the removal of four Confederate monuments for which he received great criticism, as well as a Profile in Courage award. And he has a place in politics here that might help us understand where we're going. With us now live on Bloomberg TV and radio, the former two term mayor of New Orleans. Mayor Landrieu, it's great to see you. Welcome back. Wondering what you would do if you were the mayor of a city like this, whether it's New Orleans, which has SEA National Guard troops, or Minneapolis dealing with the ICE raids. What would you do? What would be your posture in dealing with the federal government?

Public.com Disclosures Announcer (8:42)

Well, first of all, you're not just dealing with the federal government. Not DEA, ATF, the FBI, the U.S. attorney, the National Guard. Those are all very familiar things to mayors in America. And cities work well when there's a good partnership between the president and the mayor and the governor and all of those different agencies, which, by the way, happens all the time in every administration. What's unique about what's going on right now is that Donald Trump and Stephen Miller and Tom Holman have trained and created a new animal that they now call ice. That is a national law enforcement that's imposing their will without cooperation and essentially without proper training or if they are properly trained, they're given the wrong message about shoot first, ask questions later and causing much more havoc on the streets of America that need be. You know, Tom Holman has been doing this a long time and he's not exactly forthright when he says, oh, we're gonna draw down. Remember, they had 3,000 ice guys. Now people should figure out where they got 3,000 ice guys from so quickly. Who are they? Where were they trained? What are they supposed to be doing? You can see from their behavior that they're not really trained like the FBI or the DEA or local police department. So the first thing that I would do is what I did when I was mayor. We had to rebuild the New Orleans Police Department. Police officers are hired to protect and to serve. They see the constituents as people that they're serving. They don't see them as enemies. You have to honor the Constitution. You know, people have the right to protest as long as they do it peacefully. Police officers, especially in New Orleans, are great at crowd control and making sure that people can exercise their constitutional rights. You never shoot first. You always shoot last, and only when it is absolute necessary. And unfortunately, what has happened across the country at the direction of President Trump and Tom Homan and Stephen Miller is ICE agents have lost the confidence of the American people, even people who consider themselves to be Republicans, Independents and conservatives because of their behavior. So I think that I sort of get out of Minneapolis right now and they should start again. There is no mayor in America that I'm aware of that would not receive help from federal agencies to help root out crime, whether it be committed by an American citizen or somebody that is here illegally. But that's actually not what's happening and it's a shame. And I think Tom ought to back up a little bit and they ought to rethink their strategy and then they ought to be fair and thoughtful about how they help make the streets of America safe. But right now, most Americans think what ICE is doing is making us less safe. And I happen to agree with that. And I think they got a really good rethink what they're doing and get better training. They have to have background checks, body cameras, they have to learn de escalation techniques and then we'll begin again.

Joe Matthew (11:37)

We heard the other side of this argument, Mayor, from Republican Senator John Cornyn of Texas, realizing he's running for reelection. I think he speaks for a number of members of the Republican led Senate when it comes to who is agitating whom. Listen to what he said. I think unfortunately in both of these instances, these individuals did not cooperate with law enforcement. And unfortunately that when that happens, tragedies like this occur, which are regrettable. But I think the answer to it is for the sanctuary jurisdictions to cooperate with federal law enforcement so that federal immigration laws can be enforced, hopefully without these kind of tragedies occurring. I wonder how you react to that. Well, first, not seeing the victim being blamed here.

Public.com Disclosures Announcer (12:27)

Sometimes people don't really think about what Senator Cornyn said. Alex Preddy, who was on TV being shot in the back, got shot 10 times, was not the aggressor in that situation. There wasn't a riot on the street. He was exercising his First Amendment right and he was actually trying to protect another woman who had been pushed. There are very few law enforcement officers themselves who would look at that tape and say that those ICE agents or border patrol agents in that situation did the right thing. And if they were trained to do that, then they were trained improperly. So Senator Cornyn is wrong about what is actually happening. Now, listen, to be clear, people should protest. And when they do, if they do, they should do so peacefully. But American citizens have a right to be present and to film law enforcement. We should know who the law enforcement Officers are that are taking away people's rights and liberties. They should be held accountable for their actions. And yes, people should cooperate to the extent that they can. But there's a big gulf between what ICE is doing and what reasonable, thoughtful police officers should do, even in the most difficult circumstances. Remember, I mean, in the city of New Orleans, we have millions of people on the street all the time. Our officers are trained really, really well to handle difficult situations. After when we took the monuments down, there were. There were lots of people on the street, and people were exercising their Second Amendment right to carry firearms. And yet our officers acted with great restraint so that everybody was safe. There's actually a way to do it, but ICE is not doing that now, and they have to do it if they're going to continue to do the work that the President wants them to do in a way that protects people's constitutional rights and people's lives.

Joe Matthew (14:07)

You refer to the masking of these federal agents and the push to have them de mask by law. Senator Cornyn called that request an insult to their professionalism. Mayor, when you consider the interaction that you had with New Orleans police, who, of course, not able to cover their faces when they're conducting an arrest, how would you react to that?

Public.com Disclosures Announcer (14:31)

Well, first of all, almost all the police officers, I think almost all of them, I don't want to say all, because there may be some instances, we know who they are. We know what their names are. We know where they were trained, we know what kind of training they got, we know what agency they work for. They actually have labels on that vest. This is universally true across all of America. So I'm a little bit just confused by that answer. And the reason we do that is because these law enforcement officers, of course, are the most powerful people in the world. They can take people's life and liberty away. And we have a system of accountability. And so that's just kind of the way it is for them to have to be in favor of masked men with guns who have been basically told that you will not be investigated, you will not be questioned, you actually have a license to kill. Should chill every American. And I think that most reasonable people, conservative, liberal, extreme, will look at this and say, listen, this is not the way that we are going to be made to feel safe in America. We clearly should have some kind of reasonable restrictions. And most really great law enforcement officers and many men, most men and women in law enforcement are, will look at this thing and say, look, they've given us a bad name. And because if you can't trust the police to treat you in the right way. You're not going to cooperate with them. It just doesn't work. And so I think Senator Cornyn and other people, I think they're out of bounds. And I think most of the American people know that ICE is out of control and they need to be better trained and better focused and giving better instructions. And they have to be held accountable when they get out of bounds, which most people think they are right now.

Joe Matthew (16:08)

You don't worry about these officers being doxxed that that's, that's what obviously is the explanation for them covering their faces, that they in fact, will be targeted.

Public.com Disclosures Announcer (16:17)

But it's also, listen, it's a very dangerous thing. But, but every, every, every other law enforcement agent in America doesn't have a mask on. They all operate under difficult circumstances. I mean, you would talk to folks in the FBI or the DEA or the ATF or the U.S. marshal's office or U.S. attorneys and, but, but one of the things that they don't tell you, it's also an excuse for no accountability and not being able to question somebody's authority in America. We get to, based on the Constitution, redress our grievances against the government and say when we think the government is wrong, that helps America be strong. You, in fact, are a great patriot when you constructively criticize your government. It is one thing that distinguishes from autocracies and kingships. It's one of the reasons why we actually revolted way back when. If you take that away, America ceases to become the country that, that we all promised that we would be to each other. And it just doesn't seem to me that it should be so hard to get this right. We have experience in it. Actually. The entire Department of Homeland Security needs to be rethought and redesigned. We put that thing together really quickly after 9 11, with 26 years into it now, it's too big, it's too bloated, there's a lot of waste, and clearly it's not being run well right now. ICE is just a manifestation of that. So we've got to rethink about all this stuff. There's a way to be tough, but there's also a way to be smart. And that's what the policing should be. American citizens are not the enemy. And that is what ICE is treating people like. And that is a mistake.

Joe Matthew (17:47)

I talked to Christian Menefee this week. Mayor. He's the newest member of Congress, a Democrat young man, won a special election in Texas. And we were having this conversation, and he called for the abolishment of ice. I asked him about the impact of that statement and the way that it can be confused with defund the police, for instance. A lot of Democrats are very worried about the messaging that's coalescing around this issue. And here's what he told me. You can't take something that was created.

Public.com Announcer (18:16)

And has been radicalized to this level that has harmed so many people and try to have minor reforms on it.

Joe Matthew (18:22)

In a way that you think is going to protect people.

Public.com Announcer (18:24)

I think that they are far past the line. And after folks are executing the street, it's time to tear it down.

Joe Matthew (18:31)

Time to tear it down. He said. How would you counsel Democrats and messaging around this?

Public.com Disclosures Announcer (18:35)

Well, first of all, I don't.

Joe Matthew (18:37)

I don't.

Public.com Disclosures Announcer (18:37)

I don't let Democrats counsel, you know, themselves. I'll say this about a couple things. First of all, Americans, everybody has a right to be safe. And I think that border security is really important and that we ought to make sure both of those things happen. Whatever kind of law enforcement agency we have. And in this instance, it's ICE has to act appropriately. And if they don't, they have to be curbed and restricted and changed. Whether or not it's called abolishing ICE or reforming ICE or fixing ice, tearing things down without having a replacement doesn't make any sense. I thought defunding the police was a really dumb slogan. Sometimes you need more money than less. But having said that, I want the American people to be aware of this. First of all, There are only 600 police officers in Minneapolis. There were 3,000 ICE agents there, and by the way, a very small number of immigrants. Texas has a lot more, and so does Florida, but they didn't send the ICE agents there. That's number one. Number two, they have now given ICE 100. I think it's $156 billion. That is more money than most of the defense budgets of almost every country in the world. All right, that is extraordinary. And it is collectively more money than all of the FBI, atf, dea, US Marshals. So I want the American people to think about a couple things. If everybody is focused on immigration and not just taking out the worst of the worst, but actually taking old ladies who happen to be gardening in their yard and throwing them away. And they're not focused on terrorism, and they're not focused on cyber crimes, and they're not focused on other kinds of violent crimes that are happening in America. Don't you think they're really. We're off task and we're off focus if the whole point is to keep us safe. So I absolutely think that we have to completely rethink how much money ICE has, where the money is, and who doesn't have money. Like, every mayor in America would like the FBI, the dea, the atf, the US Marshal, and most police departments to have a robust amount of money to go after everybody who we know are the violent criminals, whether they're here legally or whether they're American citizens. And right now, the Trump administration has prioritized taking five years old and putting them in jail, then actually gone after the real criminals. This is why police chiefs around America are saying that this is actually making us less safe. So we have to have an adult conversation about this, and we have to figure it out, because right now, ICE is acting like the ass, and they got to get better at it, like, really, really, really quick.

Joe Matthew (21:05)

Wow. Mayor, while you're with us, I want to ask you about another trend that we're seeing here in Washington, D.C. and that's the return of some Confederate symbols and statues here in the city. You're probably aware of the statue of Albert Pike. There's another one that's going back into Arlington. It happens on a day that we understand the President wants to install a Christopher Columbus statue outside the wal White House, pulling some marble out of the river up in Baltimore to make this happen. It's pretty remarkable. I just wonder how someone like yourself, who had these Confederate statues removed from the city of New Orleans at great political peril, interprets this return, this move to go back to the future.

Public.com Disclosures Announcer (21:43)

Well, let me say this. I think that the myth of the Lost Cause, which was that the Civil War was fought for a noble cause, is a lie. The Civil War was fought over the cause of slavery, which is this nation's original sin. And racism continues to be a very difficult issue for this country to grapple with. And people want to deny our history because for some reason, people feel that because we think about things we've done in the past, that somehow we're saying this country was not great, America's greatest country in the world. But you're never, ever going to get any better until you reconcile things from the past. Secondly, the Civil War was fought to destroy. To destroy the Union. Had the Civil War succeeded, had Robert E. Lee succeeded, we wouldn't be here today. So I don't. I don't really think it's a great idea to lift those folks up and to memorialize them as though somehow they were American heroes. Like we should put a statue of King George on the Washington Mall. I think that's a bad idea. If you want to remember the people that died who were brothers fighting brothers, some on the Confederate side and some on the Union side in a cemetery to realize the deaths, some of which Abraham Lincoln, you know, memorialized in the Gettysburg Address, that's fine. But don't go tell me as an American citizen that you're gonna lift up generals from the Confederacy or wave a Confederate flag and tell me that you're being patriotic. That's about as anti American as you can get. And I just think it's a tremendous mistake and I think it's a tremendous mistake to make men and women in the military right now who are fighting to save our lives walk under the banner of a Confederate general on our basis. I think that's a terrible mistake as well. We can remember our past and we can make a promise for a better future without degrading the Union or denying our patriotism.

Joe Matthew (23:36)

For all of America's, there's only one Mitch Landrieu, the former Mayor of New Orleans. It's great to see you Mr. Mayor. Don't be a stranger. Let us know when you're back in Washington and we'll continue this conversation because I think it's going to keep on going. A conversation you will only hear on Bloomberg TV and radio. This is why you want to subscribe to the podcast a lot to unpack. Stay with us on Balance of Power. We'll have much more coming up after this.

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Bloomberg Podcast Host (25:12)

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Joe Matthew (25:31)

We assembled our political panel now following a fascinating conversation with the former mayor of New Orleans, Mitch Landrieu. Bloomberg Politics contributors Jeannie Shanzano and Rick Davis are here. Rick is our Republican strategist partner, Stone Court Capital. Jeannie is Democracy visiting Fellow at Harvard Kennedy School's Ashe Center. Our Democratic analyst, Rick I wonder your thoughts on what we just heard from Mitch Landrieu, who is clearly not impressed terribly with the removal of 700 federal agents. He's making clear it's true we've got another 2,000 agents there. But I had sensed some optimism when we spoke earlier on your part that that the needle might be moving here when it comes to de escalation and the impact that Tom Homan has had in Minneapolis. How do you read it?

Rick Davis (26:17)

Well, first of all, let me just say I am thankful that Mitch Landrieu is not running for the United States Senate as a Democrat this year because like his sister, he would have been successful and we'd be down one started of the game. I mean, he's an amazing politician and probably the Democratic Party's secret weapon. So yeah, look, I mean, I think, I think there are ways to look at this. You can be negative, you can be positive. I think practically speaking, we're in a different place today than we were a week ago. A week ago following the death of Mr. Petty. I mean, the country was ablaze with anger, rightly so. The Congress was in a grip over what to do about this. Even Democrats didn't have a full slate of reform measures that they wanted because they never thought they'd have a shot at getting those. And now today we have a legitimate conversation going on in Congress with the White House about how to deconflict the situation both in Minneapolis, but writ large with these ICE agents all over the country. So you're never going to solve all the problems at one time, but we're in a much more constructive dialogue today than we've been in the past. It doesn't mean everything's better, doesn't mean it's not going to have problems. One more shooting by an ICE agent to a citizen is, is going to.

Joe Matthew (27:33)

Blow all that up.

Rick Davis (27:34)

We are, we are dancing on the edge of a pin. But right now we're still on that pin and we're still having conversations that could result in a positive change.

Joe Matthew (27:44)

I'm struck by Rick's initial reaction to our conversation with Mitch Landrieu. Jeannie, just to digress for a moment, why aren't Democrats running him for president?

Bloomberg Podcast Host (27:54)

They very well might, Joe. I think like not that long ago on this show I said he would be a very good candidate. And there is a reason for that. And who knows who will run. There's a lot of talent on the bench. But I think he makes a really important point and it's one that we've heard over and over again, which is that there is no question you need a secure border, but you don't get there by violating people's rights and liberties, terrorizing Americans on the streets. And I think a big question has to be asked about why Minneapolis again? 3,000 ICE officers sent there, we are told by the attorney general will pull down if you give us your voting rolls. We have an attorney general in D.C. saying that you can't bring guns into the District of Columbia. What is the interest and intent on the part of this administration and the entire department on having masked and armed men on the streets of our cities, particularly our blue cities? It probably comes down to what Donald Trump has been spending a lot of time on, which is concern about what happens in November. And while all that is happening, you're not going to get a lot of Democrats in Congress or elsewhere who we're going to say, hey, it's okay. Keep those masks on, keep those guns afloat, keep 2,000 plus ICE agents in a city with just 700 police officers. This is where we are in this country and big questions are being asked. And Democrats aren't trusting either DHS or Kristi Noem or Donald Trump or Tom Coleman to say, we're pulling out 700, turn the other way and look away. That's not going to work. And it doesn't even depend on another incident. It's not going to work. Now.

Joe Matthew (29:45)

How'S this masking issue going to be solved here, Rick? This is a tough one. When we asked John Cornyn yesterday about demasking, he said that was an insult to the officer's professionalism. You heard what Mitch Landrieu just said. Should these ICE agents be held to the same standard as other law enforcement officers in this country, or should we be sensitive to the fact that they say they and their families are being targeted when they're identified?

Rick Davis (30:08)

Look, I mean we, we live in a very difficult environment where elected officials are targeted. Police officers no doubt are targeted. What are we going to do? Members of the United States Senate and House start wearing masks? Because, like what Landry said, we all know who they are anyway, right? So what's the point? We know who are on the streets of Minneapolis of L. A.

Public.com Disclosures Announcer (30:31)

And.

Rick Davis (30:31)

And I would say, I think that there has to be a level of trust. There is a social compact between law enforcement, regardless of what agency it is, and the public. The public pays for your salary, your gun and your badge, and they give you a lot of discretion to keep the peace. But you have to keep the peace, and you have to do it without infringing upon the constitutional rights of every American. Right now that social compact has been torn apart. And so I think that if this administration really wants to build confidence in the professionalism of staff, they actually need to actually do the opposite and take those masks off to demonstrate that the people who maybe dox them or come after them, they're the enemy, not the police themselves. I mean, I worry about the net effect on any peace officer in any jurisdiction in the country losing its status and breaking that social compact because that hurts us all. And so I think this is one of those symbolic things that needs to be disposed of so that we can get on with building those relationships, not tearing them down.

Joe Matthew (31:40)

Well, boy, this is really important stuff. We could write a lot of columns about this, Jeanne, and have a debate that lasts the rest of the day. The fact of the matter is something's going to have to come in exchange. I'm guessing if there's going to be an agreement to fund the Department of Homeland Security, if there's a de masking requirement, what would Democrats be open to giving Republicans here? Would there be a measure on sanctuary cities? They've proposed increasing penalties on immigrants who cross the border illegally, for instance. Could any of these things help to fulfill a compromise?

Bloomberg Podcast Host (32:11)

I don't think Democrats are going to go along with the sanctuary city, at least as far as we've heard. The proposals are sort of created and talked about. So far, I don't see that happening. I think there are a lot of Democrats who would go along with common sense immigration reform. We've known that for a long time. We've seen compromises. But what they want to see, first and foremost is they want to see ICE addressed. And that means whether you're talking about revised, whether you're talking about defunded and then recreated in a way that makes common sense, these things are all very doable. We have wonderful police officers and military officials in this country working day in and day out without masks. And I think the question to be asked is why is John Cornyn, apart from political reasons and this administration and so many others committed to things like masking these agents when they are committed to masking regular police officers except in certain circumstances like illness and certain circumstances. So, you know, there are big questions to be asked. There are agreements to be made. But Republicans are not going to be able to make those agreements by talking about nationalizing our electoral process or dealing with sanctuary cities. It needs to start with revitalizing ice, retraining ICE and reconfiguring an agency which is swimming in money and none of it makes any sense and it's robbing people of their rights on the cities of our streets. On the streets of our cities.

Joe Matthew (33:47)

Yeah. The speaker of the House told reporters a little while ago he's going to be meeting with the president today at the White House to talk about this. But he made it pretty clear, Rick and John Thune has as well that this negotiation is between the president and Chuck Schumer when it comes to funding dhs. Will they figure that out in the next nine days?

Rick Davis (34:05)

Yeah, I think maybe not in the next nine days. I think everybody has made the point, especially Senator Thune, that that's just simply not enough time to, you know, effectively address these issues. But at the end of the day, the president and Schumer can set that target and meet it if they want.

Joe Matthew (34:21)

Could happen at any time. And of course, you'll hear about it right here if and when it does. Great insights from Rick Davis and Jeannie Shan Zaino. This is why they are Bloomberg Politics contributors and I thank you both. Thanks as well to Mitch Landrieu. We're going to turn our attention to what's going on overseas coming up next and the potential for another strike against Iran. Stay with us on balance of power. We'll have much more coming up up after this.

Public.com Announcer (34:45)

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Investing Brokerage Services by Open to the Public Investing Inc. Member FINRA and SIPC Advisory Services by Public Advisors, llc. SEC Registered Advisor Generated Assets is an interactive analysis tool. Output is for informational purposes only and is not an investment recommendation or advice. Complete disclosures available@public.com disclosures.

Bloomberg Podcast Host (35:56)

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Joe Matthew (36:12)

Important happenings as we promised we'd be looking abroad before this hour was out and we want to keep tabs on what's happening with Iran because this seems to be the story that maybe no one's talking about for some reason. We already told you that the carrier strike group had arrived in the region and you've been hearing some saber rattling along with some promise of diplomacy. And right now the Secretary of State, Marco Rubio says he's open to upcoming talks with Iran, knowing that we have a session planned for Friday and that a location is being worked through now. He's a diplomat, of course, that's how that works. Take a look at the reporting from Axios. The US Just told Iran it will not agree to Tehran's demands to change the location and format of talks planned for Friday. They wanted everybody else out of the room, just do this between Washington and Tehran. That appears to be not happening. The US And Iran had agreed to meet in Istanbul with other Middle Eastern countries participating as observers. We've been continuing our conversation with Heather Conley about this and she's back with us in studio now, non resident Senior Fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, the aei former Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for the Bureau of European and Eurasian Affairs, a voice of experience that we have drawn on more than once. And Heather, it's great to see you. Welcome back. Is this session happening on Friday? What's going on?

Heather Conley (37:27)

We don't know. On Monday we thought we had talks in Istanbul on on Tuesday the Iranians said, nope, we're going to move those to Amman and talk only about nuclear issues. And today we were told the US said nope, we're not going to do that. And Special envoy Witkoff and Mr. Kushner may be coming Back home after a meeting in Qatar. So stay tuned. I think this is still moving around.

Joe Matthew (37:47)

Is this part of the dance that you would expect or is this unusual to see this all playing out in the open?

Heather Conley (37:52)

A little bit of the dance. It's what Iranians tend to do to keep folks off balance and that they can sort of take the initiative. I mean, this is gunpowder, gunboat diplomacy. As you mentioned, we've got, you know, a carrier strike group. We are building up significant forces in the Middle east and we are compelling in many ways Iran to the negotiating table. This is, they're trying to wrestle back a little of the initiative, I think.

Joe Matthew (38:17)

Understood, gunboat diplomacy. The fact of the matter is, in the end, this is going to be hashed out between Tehran and Washington. Right. Do we need to have our neighbors at the table or Iran's neighbors in this case?

Heather Conley (38:27)

So it's a important to have those neighbors there. As we mentioned, there's a reason why the Saudis, the Qataris, the Emiratis aren't allowing their airspace to be used if there is a US Military strike. They're afraid of the regional spillover. So I think it's a strong sign that that other region diplomats are there. Look, I don't think we can say it will always stay diplomacy, diplomatic track. I think the Trump administration wants to see where this goes, but I also think they are keeping options available. This is a very unique time. Iran is weak. I think there is some searching to see if a real important deal can be secured at this time.

Joe Matthew (39:08)

Has the administration detailed what this deal would look like? Is it simply a promise to abandon the nuclear program?

Heather Conley (39:15)

Yeah, unclear. I mean, they've gone back to sort of the standard, which is no nuclear enrichment. Real tough limits on that.

Joe Matthew (39:22)

Even for its own energy.

Heather Conley (39:24)

Correct. I think they're really very tough on that line. They also want to add limits to Iran's ballistic missile program and really addressing ending support to those regional proxies. The Iranians have been very clear and this has been part of the dance. They only want to focus on nuclear issues. And so what it seems again, Axios is reporting the doing the nuclear conversation one on one with the United States and then having the broader regional conversation about the ballistic missiles, the human rights abuses and then the proxies.

Joe Matthew (39:55)

But don't we know that stopping all enrichment is a non starter for Iran, at least historically? That's when everybody walks away from the table because they do use nuclear power for any number of uses beyond weapons. We're talking about the extreme enrichment that would be used for a nuclear weapon. Does this administration need to delineate there, or has Iran lost trust on that issue?

Heather Conley (40:20)

Well, I think we've lost trust that the Iranians are not transparent about their nuclear program. And as I said, I think this is the challenge. You put your finger on it. The Iranian regime will not give up its nuclear enrichment process. It believes it's for its own civilian purposes. And I think as long as this regime is in place, that will be there.

Joe Matthew (40:43)

I want to mention. Just quickly, I can interrupt our conversation with a red headline on the terminal. This is breaking news right now. The Supreme Court will allow the new California voting map for the midterm elections. Remembering this is something that went to voters in an election not long ago, having been put forth by Gavin Newsom in Prop 50. The Supreme Court allowing the voting map for the midterms. As we spend time with Heather Connolly from the AEI here in our Washington studio with eyes on Iran. If we get to the point where talks are exhausted, there are still a lot of questions about what the President's been briefed on and exactly how we would go at another strike. Remembering we struck their nuclear, their underground nuclear compounds last year. Could we be in a situation where these are not classic military installations or targets that are being pursued by the military, rather, people. Do we go after individuals in a way that Israel might?

Heather Conley (41:43)

Well, I think that's why it's been so difficult. We don't have clarity on the military objective. And I think the, the military has to prepare for every eventuality. Very robust. So regime change. So you're going after specific targets to decapitate the regime. Are we specifically looking at, again, going to ballistic missile sites? If we have to go back to some of the nuclear sites. There were some satellite imagery the last few days at Natanz in particular, photo that showed that they were trying to harden some of those sites, anticipating perhaps that we'd be revisiting those. We don't know what the, what the objective is. I think the President, if he chooses a military option, wants a clean, decisive strike. And that's just not going to be the case here. And this is, is what makes this decision really hard because there's so much messy spillover effect. And I believe Iran will take very decisive action against U.S. forces in the region and, of course, Israel. So we really have to be prepared not only for what the strike we'd want to deliver if that option is chosen, but then how do you defend the region? And that's why all those assets are coming into Place bad patriots, et cetera.

Joe Matthew (42:55)

Is that Al Adid and Qatar? Where would they target in American in the region?

Heather Conley (42:58)

Well, of course, you'd go to the biggest locations. That's what the Iranians did during last June 12 day war. So again, I think. And this was. It was a little bit more scripted. I think they weren't trying to escalate. If this regime is put in a corner, would they really do something highly irrational and illogical and really accelerate? That's what you have to be careful of.

Joe Matthew (43:18)

What happened yesterday? We just shot down an Iranian drone that was, we're told, acting aggressively or somehow targeting the USS Lincoln. This is the center of the carrier strike group. It was shot down. The drone was shot down by an American F35. Is that an act of war?

Heather Conley (43:33)

Well, it's testing boundaries. And I think this is where I think you're seeing Tehran demonstrating that it will go very far. And I think it's sending a message to the White House going, you don't want this mess. So also activity around a tanker that would have been supplying US Bases with. With fuel. So we had two acts. This is why this is so dangerous. This is why we want it to go back into a diplomatic track. But the stakes are pretty high here.

Joe Matthew (44:04)

Joe, was that an opportunity, though, for the US in our remaining moment here to prove our ability to enact force protection, that it doesn't matter which boat or which base you're coming after, there'll be an F35 waiting for you, right?

Heather Conley (44:18)

I mean, I think that's exactly it. Both were testing each other's boundaries, and this is where you have to clearly and decisively deter that behavior. And the military demonstrated that it will take those steps for sure.

Joe Matthew (44:30)

Is that in fact a bigger flotilla, if we can use that to a bigger armada than we had in Venezuela? Is the President right about that?

Heather Conley (44:36)

I believe the buildup is much more significant. Again, we have much greater basing facilities in that region, but yes, I mean, you have to move in. This is where we weren't too worried about Venezuelan missile capabilities. You have, again, ballistic missiles. You've got to prepare for that.

Joe Matthew (44:54)

The satellite imagery has been remarkable. The Washington Post put up a number of them today, showing dozens of F15, the F18 growlers, and a lot of other aircraft that could be used. All in a crouch like position, as they say. Heather Connelly, thank you so much for spending time with us. As always, straight from aei. Thanks for listening to the Balance of Power podcast. Make sure to subscribe if you haven't already Apple, Spotify or wherever you get podcasts. And you can find us live every weekday from Washington D.C. at noontime eastern@bloomberg.com so have you heard the story about the prescription plan? With savings automatically built in, it's where a family of any size can feel confident the cost of their medication won't hold them back. Go to CMK Co Stories to learn how CVS Caremark helps members save just by being members. That's CMK Co. S T O R I E S well, the holidays have come and gone once again, but if.

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