Loading summary
Transcript77 lines
- [00:01]
Joe Weisenthal
The thing about AI for business, it may not automatically fit the way your business works. At IBM, we've seen this firsthand. But by embedding AI across hr, IT and procurement processes, we've reduced costs by millions, slash repetitive tasks, and freed thousands of hours for strategic work. Now we're helping companies get smarter by putting AI where it actually pays off, deep in the work that moves the business. Let's create smarter business. IBM,
- [00:33]
Podcast Announcer
Bloomberg Audio Studios Podcasts Radio news. You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch us live weekdays at noon and 5pm Eastern on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts or watch us live on YouTube.
- [00:55]
Kelly Evans
We're waiting to hear from President Trump later this hour. As in the Oval Office, he is expected to swear in the new Homeland Security Secretary Mark Wayne Mullen, after his confirmation in the Senate last night. But that does present an opportunity as well for President Trump to provide any update, if there is one, on negotiations with Iran to potentially end the conflict and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, knowing the president has extended a deadline that was supposed to expire last night to Friday, the expiration of a five day period before he would consider targeting Iranian energy infrastructure. But the president contends that he wants to make a deal and that Iran wants to make a deal. As he emphasized when speaking in Memphis yesterday,
- [01:35]
Donald Trump
I think there's a very good chance we're going to end up in a deal and so we're giving it five days and then we're going to see where that takes us. And I would say at the end of this period, I think it could very well end up being a very good deal for everybody, as good as if we went all the way and just literally annihilated the place, which, which if we don't have to do that, that would be a good thing.
- [02:00]
Joe Weisenthal
That was right at this time yesterday when the president was speaking in Memphis. And as Kelly indicated, not much has been learned since about the negotiating process that he says is underway and fighting continues, with Israel now suggesting that it does not plan to pull back in its campaign still running at full intensity. Michelle Jam Risko joins us from our Washington bureau with the latest Bloomberg White House and National Security editor Michelle I know the president could add some color to this in the next hour here when he addresses reporters in the Oval Office for the swearing in of soon to be Secretary Mark Wayne Mullen. But are we learning anything through Bloomberg's reporting or elsewhere about the veracity or the status of these talks?
- [02:47]
Michelle Jamrisko
Well, there are a lot of questions, Joe, about who is involved in the talks still. You know, we had those questions yesterday. But as you say, there are some details trickling and at least some rumors of folks that are being spoken with. Certainly Pakistan is one that has come forward and said, yes, we would be eager, we would be honored, in the prime minister's words, there to host immediate mediation talks. Iran still giving signals that it is not on board, at least from certain parts of the government, of the regime. Right now, we had the Iranian parliament speaker and the deputy speaker both saying they are not and will not be involved in talks. So there is a certain line coming from the Iranian regime that they are not willing to negotiate at this point, but also some behind the scenes, perhaps posturing, as certainly claimed by Trump that his diplomatic duo of Witkoff and Kushner are trying to, you know, get inroads with some Iranians. And they wouldn't identify who, of course, because as they say, those people could be under threat, you know, from within if they are seen to be negotiating on the side with the US So a lot of, a lot of questions still other countries trying to get involved, jockeying for some sway in either ending the conflict or moving it forward in a different manner. So we've heard about Saudi Arabia, as the New York Times has reported today, maybe pushing to continue the conflict in order to help remake the region, as they put it, inciting some US People familiar with negotiations. But we just don't know yet. And so it will be good to have, you know, the president weigh in and say whether or not he's having these talks. But of course, we're not taking anything at face value from any side at this point, which, you know, everybody has their own motive here to, to claim or to not claim the talks are ongoing.
- [04:34]
Kelly Evans
Well, Michelle, as we are having this conversation, we're getting some fresh reporting out from the Wall Street Journal. In fact, this is in keeping with what Fox had reported earlier. But the US is ordering 3,082nd Airborne soldiers to the Middle east, according to the Journal, also planning to deploy brigade combat team to support Iran operations, though the Wall Street Journal has also reported that while this order to deploy the unit is expected to come in the coming hours, the decision to put boots on the ground in Iran has not yet been been made. But when we consider the deployment of more soldiers, of more assets to the Middle east, knowing as well that there's 2,000 Marines coming from Japan that are expected to arrive on Friday, right around the expiration of the President's new five day deadline for Iran. Michelle, how should we be reading into that?
- [05:17]
Michelle Jamrisko
Yeah, well that's another hot area Kelly, that we're looking at is what do you do with these additional troops that are coming into the region. We do know as you mentioned, that me, you from Japan on its way should arrive in a couple of days and certainly a lot of firepower within that unit of more than 2,000 troops. But how and whether they will be used is still up for grabs. And in addition, you know we are hearing the same rumors as you mentioned about the perhaps the 82nd Airborne, other units that may have to support if there is a potential ground invasion of any kind or takeover of Kharg island as has been rumored. Those types of operations certainly would need a lot of different units which you know, as the President probably would say he's keeping options open. He is not promising anything one way or the other and he won't tell reporters first off whether or not they would do such a thing. But you know, in his one thing I do want to remind everyone is in his five day reprieve if you will, of attacks he was very careful to say this is only for energy sites. So we could see, you know, we can't rule out any possibility of further kinetic action on the U.S. s part in the region not associated with energy, energy sites. And even after that five day period ends, you know all, all options are on the table as, as they are right now.
- [06:40]
Kelly Evans
All right, Bloomberg's Michelle Jam Risko covering the White House and national security for us. Thank you so much. I would note as well that we are seeing some escalating market action specifically in the bond market, the two year yield, the five year yield, both up about 10 basis points on the day. And part of that may actually be Joe, because of the weaker year auction that drawing 3.936% compared to the 3.918 pre sale when issued yield. That's the highest auction stop actually since May. So that may be what's going on in the markets though. Certainly the bond market and the oil market have been having to contend with these varying headlines coming from the Middle east as to whether or not there is going to be progress in stopping something that could be an inflationary supply shock.
- [07:23]
Joe Weisenthal
Yeah, there's, there's, there's some obviously turn south here in terms of stocks reaching to their lowest levels of the day. Not that it's a big sell off Kelly. We just seem to get back to the bottom here. Gold turned negative, gave up an early lead the Vix back above 27. So we're not feeling too great today as we wait for more news from Iran.
- [07:43]
Kelly Evans
Yeah, this market may not be that confident in the prospect of a diplomatic off ramp here, but let's see if our next guest is or not. Ambassador Daniel Fried is with us. He is now a distinguished fellow at the Atlanta council and former U.S. ambassador to Poland, as well as Assistant Secretary of State for Europe. And he's here with us in our Washington, D.C. studio. Ambassador, welcome back to Bloomberg TV and Radio. You obviously have vast experience in diplomacy. Are you feeling optimistic about the chance diplomacy prevails in this conflict, in particular?
- [08:12]
Ambassador Daniel Fried
Optimistic, no. Though there is chance, I don't think that US Iranian discussions are advanced. I think the president was exaggerating. But there is a chance that we will negotiate something with Iran. But ask yourself, what then? If this war becomes about opening the Strait of Hormuz. We've already lost because the Strait of Hormuz is only closed because we started the war. We started the war for the purpose of regime change or obliterating Iran's military. And we have not succeeded in doing that. So the president is improvising, which is another way of saying making it up. Starting a war is to enter a dark cave. You never know what you're going to find. We're still in that cave.
- [09:04]
Joe Weisenthal
Wow. Well, as we improvise our way through this conversation, then, I recall yesterday the President suggesting that part of a deal would include the handing over of the highly enriched uranium that has well, gone missing, according to some, since the strikes last summer. Would that be an aim that you could coalesce around separate from the strait? To your point, that's something that we may have provoked. How about getting our hands on that uranium? Is that a goal for talks?
- [09:34]
Ambassador Daniel Fried
It's a perfectly good goal. I hope we get it. The trouble is, suppose we don't. The Iranians may have hidden that uranium. They're not going to give it up because it's their leverage against a new US Attack. So, yeah, a perfectly reasonable goal. I've no sympathy and I don't think Americans should have any sympathy toward the Iranian regime. It's an awful regime with blood on its hands, and its end would be a good thing. The question is not whether our objectives might leave us better off, but whether those objectives are achievable with the resources we've got. And that is not clear.
- [10:15]
Kelly Evans
Well, when we consider what the US Is willing to do in order to achieve those objectives. Again, we have fresh reporting from the Wall street journal about some 3,000 more troops being deployed to the Middle east, specifically 82nd Airborne soldiers, though no decision to put troops on the ground. Boots on the ground, rather, has been made yet. But you are seeing oil markets reacting to this. We're back around the highs of the session. As Joe was pointing out earlier, we're back at around $105 a barrel on Brent crude, specifically. Knowing that oil is the lever that Iran is able to, to pull here. I just wonder what your expectation is, knowing as well that countries that have been more allied with Iran, if you will, China, Russia, have kind of, they have a stake in the oil game as well. And I wonder if you think those pressures are being considered by Tehran right now.
- [10:58]
Ambassador Daniel Fried
Well, the Russians have every interest in the price of oil going up. It benefits them. It puts money in their pocket. And we might have thought of that before we started the conflict with Iran. China probably wants a stable oil supply, lower prices, because it's a net, a vast oil importer. So Russian and Chinese interests are different. But the Chinese stand to benefit from this latest Iranian offer to allow ships to go through the strait if they pay a $2 million fee. So the Russians and Chinese, for different reasons, are not going to help out the United States States. The Europeans may help us out, especially if President Trump accepts their help and stops insulting them.
- [11:42]
Joe Weisenthal
How about Gulf states that are now reportedly considering getting involved in this conflict? How important is it for the United States to keep that from happening?
- [11:52]
Ambassador Daniel Fried
Well, if we decide to escalate against Iran, another roll of the dice, we would probably welcome all the help we could get. And the Gulf states certainly don't like Iran. Iran has attacked them. So they're no friend. Iran has no friends in the region, so.
- [12:09]
Joe Weisenthal
But a widening conflict doesn't make you nervous?
- [12:12]
Ambassador Daniel Fried
It all makes me concerned because I don't see how we where the other side is. It's not that I have sympathy for the Iranian regime. As I said, I don't. The question is whether our objectives can be met in a reasonable way that leaves us better off. And that is not clear. The war was supposed to be quick and easy. My sense of it is that the president gambled that he would attack Iran, decapitate its leadership. There would be a quick rebellion and regime change, and he would claim a glorious victory, a bigger version of what he achieved in Venezuela. Well, if that had happened, he might have bragging rights. But it didn't happen. That's the problem.
- [12:57]
Kelly Evans
Yeah, Venezuela, perhaps. This is not to go back to your point on the role Europe may or may not play here. How do you think that calculus changes now that we know Iran may have missile capability that can reach far beyond just the Gulf states who have always had reason to be concerned. But if they can get to Diego Garcia, they can get to a number of European capitals as well.
- [13:15]
Ambassador Daniel Fried
Right. And the Europeans, after their initial hesitation to help us at all and their irritation at not being consulted, are actually coalescing around a pretty reasonable position. The British organized a statement by 22 governments, including some in Asia. Japanese Australians signed onto it, saying that they will take steps, not further defined to help open the strait, and this could be the beginning of a coalition. I don't know that the Europeans are going to join with us in the war, but there are things that they could do to help. They could put pressure on Iran. They are working with us, and they have, let's say, swallowed their understandable irritation for the sake of their interests. And I think that's the right call.
- [14:01]
Joe Weisenthal
Ambassador Fried, you're a career diplomat, as opposed to the two gentlemen who have been put at the table repeatedly and could be again here. Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner more know more about real estate and investment than they do about diplomacy. What does it mean for potential outcomes when you continue to send the same two people, in one case, someone who's not a government employee, instead of experts in a region with a staff that's read in?
- [14:32]
Ambassador Daniel Fried
Well, if the president trusts Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, that's a good reason to have them active. But they need experts, particularly on the nuclear side and other technical experts advising them them so they understand what the Iranians are saying to them. It's not bad for the president to have somebody he trusts leading sensitive negotiations. It's bad when that person doesn't have the expert advice to understand what he's being told.
- [15:00]
Joe Weisenthal
Well, it's great to spend some time with you, and we appreciate your sharing your diplomatic experience. That's Daniel Fried, of course, the former Ambassador Weiser family distinguished Fellow at the Atlantic Council. Ambassador, we thank you so much. Stay with us on Balance of Power. We'll have much more coming up after this.
- [15:20]
Public Ad Narrator
Support for the show comes from Public. Public is an investing platform that offers access to stocks, options, bonds, and crypto. And they've also integrated AI with tools that can assist investors in building customized portfolios. One of these tools is called generated assets. It allows you to turn your ideas into investable indexes. So let's say you're interested in something specific, like biotech companies. With high R and D spend, small cap stocks with improving operating margins or the S&P 500 minus high debt companies. Chances are there isn't an ETF that fits your exact criteria. But on Public you just type in a prompt and their AI screens thousands of stocks and builds a one of a kind index. You can even backtest it against the S&P 500. Then you can invest in a few clicks, go to public.com market and earn an uncapped 1% bonus when you transfer your portfolio. That's public.com market ad paid for by Public Holdings Brokerage Services by Public Investing member FINRA SIPC Advisory Services by Public Advisors SEC Registered Advisor crypto services by ZeroHash sample prompts are for illustrative purposes only, not investment advice. All investing involves risk of loss. See complete disclosures@public.com disclosures you're listening to
- [16:34]
Podcast Announcer
the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch us live weekdays at noon and 5pm Eastern on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station. Just say Alexa play Bloomberg 11:30 Senator
- [16:53]
Joe Weisenthal
Mark Wayne Mullen will become Secretary Mullen in a swearing in at the White House. They cleared the they cleared the nomination last evening in the Senate. Not that it should come as a huge surprise here. 54:45 the confirmation vote is said to be a dear friend of the President, he said. They talk more as friends than they do as well, coworkers. And this could unlock a new age in the Department of Homeland Security. Some Democrats are skeptical, but there is real talk of a deal today that feels different than it did even 24 hours ago with a flurry of of folks. Everyone noticed Katie Britt running down the driveway of the White House. Then she's on the floor of the Senate here trying to manage both sides on what could in fact be a deal that you heard us talk about weeks ago. None of this would have been necessary. On what is this day 38? I think of the shutdown. Remember, I think it was Rosa DeLauro wrote the first piece of legislation that would carve out ICE from the rest of dhs, knowing ICE has lots of money for years from the big beautiful bill. So you fund fema, you fund the tsa, the guys who are about to miss their second paycheck and the Coast Guard. And everyone is happy, at least for a minute. But the answer was no. Not only from some Republicans on Capitol Hill and even a couple of Democrats we spoke to, but the president was not on board with that idea. John Thune brought it to him just as recently as Sunday. The answer was no. He wanted to tie Homeland Security to voter id. As a matter of fact, the Save America Act. He talked about it yesterday in Memphis, remember?
- [18:27]
Donald Trump
So I'm tying Homeland Security into voter identification with picture and proof of citizenship in order to vote. And those two items are the most important thing having to do with Homeland Security. So it's part. It should be part of the Homeland Security bill. And I'm requesting that the Republican senators do that immediately. You don't have to take a fast vote. Don't worry about Easter going home. In fact, make this one for Jesus, okay? Make this one for Jesus. That's what I tell him. That would be a damn good thing.
- [19:03]
Joe Weisenthal
Well, no need to call Jesus. Katie Britt took care of it, it turns out. I don't know what they talked about in the Oval Office, but the President agreed, following the meeting, to back off that pledge. It did. The idea didn't even last 24 hours on the condition that the SAVE act be tied. What they're going to do, however, is it's going to come back around in a reconciliation bill. And we're going to talk about how this works with Jim Kessler here. And I'm glad to say that Jim is packing some news. The Executive Vice President for Policy at Third Way has conducted an exhaustive survey on the midterms, and we're going to talk strategy as well. But. But, Jim, welcome back. It's great to see you. You spent many years working with Chuck Schumer, and he appears to be on the verge of a breakthrough here with Republicans in his chamber and the president. How do you see this ending?
- [19:56]
Jim Kessler
It looks like a huge victory for schumer, for Rosa DeLauro, for mainstream Democrats. This is what they called for six, seven weeks ago with some minor, minor alterations. This looks like what the deal is going to be. We're going to split off, you know, the parts of Homeland Security and Customs Enforcement, Border Enforcement from the rest of the bill. Everything else is going to get funded. So big, big win for the Democrats.
- [20:24]
Joe Weisenthal
Have you seen something like that happen where they split a funding bill, splinter a funding bill to please one side or the other politically here, let the other. I mean, this is kind of an interesting maneuver.
- [20:35]
Jim Kessler
I don't know if I've ever seen this before.
- [20:37]
Joe Weisenthal
That says something.
- [20:38]
Jim Kessler
Look, everyone says, like, we're in unprecedented times. Yeah, we are unprecedented times. That's what's happening.
- [20:43]
Joe Weisenthal
So the government's funded, presumably, then for the rest of the year. Right. ICE has money for several years.
- [20:48]
Jim Kessler
Right.
- [20:48]
Joe Weisenthal
What will Mark Wayne Mullen mean at the head of this agency? If anything, the de masking was not accomplished. I don't know where we are with judicial warrants, for instance. All that still needs to be hammered out.
- [20:59]
Jim Kessler
Right. So. So look, I think Democrats wanted a couple of things. One is to split off the funding here. The other is they wanted to get rid of Kristi Noem, who was unqualified media addicted, tried to please the boss, like should not have had the job. Who knows how well Senator Mullen is going to be. But it is a departure. It is going to be presumably a more professional running of Department of Homeland Security. I do believe there is some desire among the administration and Republicans to tame ice. They don't want to admit it too loudly, but this issue has rebounded poorly for them in the last six months.
- [21:40]
Joe Weisenthal
I wonder if the next couple of weeks or days at airports might change the way people view ICE with no masks and apparently getting along fairly well with people. With some exceptions. Everybody wants to get out of here in time for recess. I realize. So there's. They're kind of fast walking this potentially right now. But what about the parliamentarian? How do you take portions of the SAVE act and put that in a reconciliation bill and get that through the parliamentarian? Is that possible?
- [22:10]
Jim Kessler
I don't think it's possible. Now somebody just like lawyers can argue on all sides. Somebody is going to draft up legislation on the Republican side and make the argument to the parliamentarian that this is a principally a revenue matter, not a, you know, a policy matter. For those not familiar, reconciliation is a special procedure in the Senate that allows you to avoid a filibuster in rare occasions when it is a purely budgetary, budgetary revenue, you know, revenue associated, associated, you know, legislation. So they've got to go through budget resolution, resolution first, take it through the Budget committee, instructions to committees and then put this on and then it has to clear the parliamentarian. I don't, I don't see how that
- [23:00]
Joe Weisenthal
it'll end up being something under the guise of funding for states to enact voter ID policy or something like that, if that'll be the swing.
- [23:08]
Jim Kessler
Even that we'll see may not work because that sounds like an appropriation, not mandatory spending, which is really where reconciliation.
- [23:18]
Joe Weisenthal
All right, keep this in mind. Just pack that away. We're not there yet. I want to talk about this important poll that you conducted at Third Way that you were kind to bring to us here. You guys worked with A global strategy group. It was an online survey, 1400 registered voters back in February. And this is not the first swing that you've made with this group. Right. Who say they are likely to vote in a Democratic presidential primary. So it brings us to the headline here. The truth is about Democratic primary voters. And you can't find the truth without first identifying who they are. And you went to great lengths to tell us who Democratic primary voters are. What did you learn?
- [23:53]
Jim Kessler
Yeah, so these are voters that say they're going to vote in a Democratic primary. They're taking from, you know, voter lists as well. What we learned is Democratic primary voters are not nearly as progressive as the media, certainly online media portrays them. Yeah, they are looking for a Democrat to elect a Democrat who is a fighter, but more a fighter for reform, more of a fighter in the moderate lane than the progressive lane. And their number one issue, frankly, is electability. They want to be able to. They're so concerned about Trump, they're concerned about Republicans in Congress. They want someone who can win over someone that, let's say they agree with every checklist item on the policy list.
- [24:37]
Joe Weisenthal
I was fascinated by this dichotomy of fights for or fights against. People want a fighter. You established that. But there are, depending on where you fall on the spectrum here of Democrat, it depends where you're going to fall on this particular issue. For moderates, you're going to be a fighter for. And we always hear people come on the program, well, you can't just run against Trump. Well, a lot of people want to. Progressives and even socialists, as you find, want someone who's going to fight against a certain issue, person or thing. How does that shake out? And when you're, when you're managing a campaign.
- [25:14]
Jim Kessler
Right. So the, when we ask people to sort of identify where they are ideologically. Among Democratic primary voters, about 16% say I'm either a progressive or socialist. About 40% say I'm a moderate. Another 30 some percent say that I'm a liberal. And they fall kind of in between. But the, so there's a 2 to 1 margin of moderates over progressives and socialists. And the moderates want someone like, fight for an economy that is going to work for me, fight for affordability, fight for schools that teach, fight for government that is accountable. Fight for a balanced approach at the board, you know, with strong border and humane interior policy. On immigration. On the progressive side, a lot of it is like, take on Trump, take on Republicans fighting for certain things like democracy. And moderates are concerned about Democracy, but it's far lower on the list. So there's a, dare I say more fight for the optimistic side of politics among the moderates.
- [26:20]
Joe Weisenthal
So this is interesting that we're having this conversation. You and your colleagues at Third Way are known for being dangerously centrist right in Washington. That upsets some people. And you're seeing this sort of bias in media coverage and the assumptions that we make that, well, progressives and left leaning Democrats are going to be more likely to vote in primaries just like, you know, hard right voters are going to. That's the base they're going to. MAGA is going to show up at the primary. You clearly feel like this is a narrative that needs to be corrected.
- [26:53]
Jim Kessler
It does. And look, there's a. When you get to the general election, the both, both parties have a different dynamic. For a Democrat to win in a typical swing district or state, at a minimum, that Democrat needs to win 60, more likely 65% of the self identified moderate vote. Republicans only need to win 40, you know, even some like 38% the moderate vote to win their races. So Democrats need to appeal more to the center to win in the general electorate. But it also means in the primary electorate. Our primary electorate is much more dominated by moderates than progressives and socialists, certainly. But those moderates are not online. They don't post on social media. 53% of moderate Democratic primary voters never post online about politics.
- [27:47]
Joe Weisenthal
How about that? Never.
- [27:49]
Jim Kessler
So they don't want to be part of that crazy debate out there about whether bad bunny is good for America
- [27:55]
Joe Weisenthal
or bad for America. I hope they're still listening. And I'm really taken by the conclusion this whole poll to what you say. This is what commentators and candidates alike should be reminded of. Twitter is not really real life. Primary voters are pragmatic. They don't want their nominee to go so far left. You say in a primary that they cannot win against MAGA in the general. Twitter is not real life. Put that on your tombstone. Maybe. Jim Castle.
- [28:19]
Jim Kessler
Absolutely. Because I have a Twitter addiction problem. You do? Self. Oh, I'm all the time.
- [28:24]
Joe Weisenthal
But you have to tell campaigns this, right?
- [28:26]
Jim Kessler
Absolutely.
- [28:27]
Joe Weisenthal
Stay off Twitter.
- [28:28]
Jim Kessler
And it's very hard because you can raise money on Twitter too.
- [28:31]
Joe Weisenthal
But that's for sure. My God, it's great to share this with us. And when you learn more, come back and see us. Jim Kessler at Third Way, of course, the Democratic strategist you normally see in our panels with us one on one with some important information. Stay with us on balance of power. We'll have much more coming up after this.
- [28:51]
Public Ad Narrator
Support for the show comes from Public Lately it feels like there are two types of investing platforms. Some are traditional brokerages that haven't changed much in decades, and others feel less like investing and more like a game. Public is positioned differently. It's an investing platform for people who are serious about building their wealth on public. You can build a portfolio of stocks, options, bonds, crypto without all the bugs or the confetti. Retirement accounts? Yep. High yield cash? Yes again. They even have direct indexing. Public has modern design, powerful tools and customer support that actually helps go to public.com market and earn an uncapped 1% bonus when you transfer your portfolio. That's public.com market ad paid for by Public Holdings Brokerage services by Public Investing member FINRA SIPC Advisory services by Public Advisors SEC Registered Advisor crypto services by ZeroHash all investing involves risk of loss. See complete disclosures@public.com disclosures you're listening to
- [29:51]
Podcast Announcer
the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch us live weekdays at noon and 5pm Eastern on Apple Car Play and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station. Just say Alexa play Bloomberg 11:30.
- [30:10]
Joe Weisenthal
Thank you for being with us. Already on the Tuesday edition of Balance of Power, we've got a quick update on the story involving the Pentagon press. Remember yesterday we talked right around this time with Tony Capacio about the court ruling that overturned the Pentagon policy that turned the screws on reporters, and, well, the court said in an unconstitutional way that violated their First Amendment rights, forced them all out of the building, and the court said, no, we're not going to stand by. This was a suit brought by the New York Times, and of course we knew that the Department of Defense was going to appeal, but at some point it seemed like Tony Capaccio was going to get back in the building, have a badge, get the desk again, get the terminal back in there, start reporting along the corridor. The Defense Department now says it's taken a whole new approach in light of this ruling, which they will appeal. They've tweaked the policy and they're kicking everyone out of the building. The workspace that has been used for years, for decades by journalists will be shut down and a new area for the press will be set up, according to the Washington Post, in an annex. You don't want to be in an annex ever outside the main Pentagon building. So they're building an outhouse for the press on the other side of the Potomac we'll see where this goes as they appeal the ruling. Big stuff happening at the White House about 45 minutes away. You're going to get a new secretary of Homeland Security. Senator Mark Wayne Mullen got the vote last evening, did pretty well, 54 to 45 confirmed. The president will swear him in at 1:30pm Eastern time. There are big questions, though, about what will happen to the department that he is going to be running, remembering it's still closed and members of the TSA who work, of course for dhs, are now coming up on their second missed paycheck. There is news of a deal in the works, though. We were just talking about it with Jim Kessler and we're going to play it to the panel because, remember, the president decided he wanted to tie the Save America act voter ID to the Homeland Security funding bill. He wanted to do a lot of things with the SAVE act that John Thune said they simply did not have the votes for. And it's something that we spoke about last evening with Senator Mike Rounds. Of course, this is a senior Republican in the Senate with his view here on DHS and the prospect of that working out. Here's what he told us.
- [32:46]
Jim Kessler
The president continues to lobby as hard as he can and to tell the American people that it's always important that our elections be free and fair and that the only people that should vote in them are Americans. Senator Thune is correct when he says that we simply don't have the votes in the United States Senate today. We're going to do the best we can to get, at least in front of the American people, clear evidence that our Democrat colleagues, simply athletic this stage of the game, are not in support of the voter IDs that most the vast majority of states already agree on right now, today.
- [33:20]
Joe Weisenthal
And so they have been decoupled. Important as Katie Britt, the Republican from Alabama, apparently leading the charge here on negotiations back and forth, the White House, the Senate. President Trump agreed in the meeting to back off his demand to link the bills further. There is an agreement. You're going to laugh when I say this if you've been listening to this show at all for the last couple of months to carve out ICE funding. They're going to pass. Everything else would restore funding for all of dhs, except for the arm of Immigration and Customs Enforcement that carries out arrests and deportations. So we could have avoided, once again this entire thing because that had been proposed weeks and months ago. Let's assemble the panel and get their take. They're probably both shaking their heads. Republican strategist Maura Gillespie is with us. Bluestack Strategy's founder and Bloomberg Politics contributor and Democratic analyst Jeannie Shan Zaino, Democracy visiting fellow at Harvard Kennedy School's Ash Center. I don't know what to say here, guys, but this sure seemed to be avoidable. And if you're a TSA agent who's been driving Uber at night to, to pay, you know, for your rent or whatever the situation is, it's kind of outrageous. Jeannie Rosa DeLauro, a Democrat, wrote this bill two months ago. How come they didn't pass it?
- [34:48]
Jeannie Shan Zaino
Joe, am I to believe that Donald Trump is capitulating? He's tacoing now on this. I have to hear him say it and admit it to believe it, but because just yesterday he was, he was so committed to the fact that the SAVE act had to be coupled with this DHS funding. So I really am holding my, my breath and my reaction until we hear it directly from the horse's mouth, as it were. But yeah, apparently this could have all been avoided. And you know, Donald Trump had said even as recently as a few hours ago that you needed to pass the SAVE act, that Democrats needed to save it, to pass it rather, and that he was going to essentially own this shutdown. I'm not sure what happened since then that he's decided he doesn't need to own it. Maybe some pressure from Britain, Thune, although I find that hard to believe. So I'm in a wait and see sort of mood, Joe, on how this pans out. But yes, apparently all could have been avoided.
- [35:48]
Joe Weisenthal
Well, so the idea here, I guess I should have dropped the punchline on this. There's more to the plan, Maura. They would actually pay for, I guess, the rest of DHS and get the Save America stuff on board and to become law by putting it in a reconciliation bill. But the Save America act doesn't have anything to do with reconciliation, does it? Will the president find himself wanting at the end of this game?
- [36:16]
J
I think partially, yes. To answer your question directly, yes, I think so. Because, yes, the argument that the Republicans are making and regarding the voter id, most Americans agree that voter ID is a, you know, pretty something that we use for a lot of things. Right. We have to show ID for a lot of things in this country. And so showing your ID to vote seems pretty common sense. The problem is the additives that are in this bill. The Save America act is not just voter id, and I think that's what's been misleading to most people it creates burdens not just on Democrats, but on Republicans as well. And so it actually would end up hurting Republicans ability to be able to vote, because a lot of Republicans, majority states use mail in ballots and mail in voting. And so that's just one example of the things that would be problematic. So I do think the president, looking ahead, he needs to get out of the situation that he has more or less made upon himself by putting these demands around what Congress can do and what bills he will sign. And so your Jeannie, I understand her wanting to be hesitant here, but I do believe the president is capitulating because of the backlash of what we're seeing play out at airport across the country. But also when you have these TSA agents sitting next to ICE agents who are funded more or less through the same mechanism. But TSA agents are not getting paid right now because of the boon in immigration enforcement that came last year through tax cuts, that the president's able to pay ICE agents and not TSA agents. It feels very much directly related to what Trump is deciding is important and what's not important. And that becomes problematic for voters.
- [37:43]
Joe Weisenthal
All right, so we got two tacos. It sounds like two Taco Tuesdays in Maura and Jeannie. Just quickly, Maura, you worked for a Speaker of the House in John Boehner. Do you think DHS is about to reopen?
- [37:56]
J
I think it needs to. I think that people are calling Republicans and Democrats and saying, enough, I don't care whose fault it is, fix this problem.
- [38:06]
Joe Weisenthal
Okay. Want to ask you about the new secretary, because in the next hour, Jeannie, it will be Secretary Mark Wayne Mullen, who in his confirmation hearing described his relationship with the president to be friends first, he said, we speak usually as friends. And I know the president went out of his way to help Mullen's family over the years. They have a long relationship. What is this going to mean to have, Well, I guess the former senator from Oklahoma at the helm?
- [38:34]
Jeannie Shan Zaino
Well, I think for members of Congress who voted for him, including two Democrats, I think it is they're hoping to put behind them what has been a very chaotic and at least by the way it's been presented in the press, an inhumane treatment of many people both in and out of DHS under Kristi Noman and Corey Lewandowski. Corey Lewandowski, who in the last just few days has been the subject of enormous investigative journalism, uncovering what is purported to be bribes. And we know the House Oversight Dems have launched an investigation into that. So chaos was reigning at dhs, it's a critically important obviously area in for Donald Trump politically and for all of us as Americans. So I think that's the hope that and we should say Mark Wayne Mullen during his confirmation hearing said he was open to and in fact negotiating prior to being named about issues like the judicial warrants being more open to that kind of thing. So you know, Heinrich, who voted for him and is also a friend of his, said those were some of the reasons that he voted for him as a Democrat. But I think we have to take a wait and see attitude. For my money, I think the most important questioning he got during the hearing was from Melissa Slotkin who said are you going to allow ICE agents to, to go into polling booths in November? Are you going to allow them at our polling sites as we have now seen ICE agents in places they shouldn't be, like airports? This is an enormous concern and I don't think we got a real clear answer to that. So those are the kinds of things I think we have to take a wait and see attitude. And Joe, I have to say on the SAVE act finally that the president as part of the SAVE act has been trying to end mail in ballots. Well, Joe and Maura, guess who just voted by mail in ballot in Palm Beach. I noticed that the President of the United States. So what's good for the goose should be good for the rest of us, but apparently not
- [40:47]
Joe Weisenthal
pesky facts that you point out here, Jeannie Maura, what do you think about this, this MMA fighter millionaire, former plumber turned senator becoming the Secretary of Homeland Security. Is he going to bring the leadership that some people say as an agency in disarray needs right now?
- [41:11]
J
I think for Donald Trump, you know, it's probably an idea of his mind of central casting and it's something he likes to have this vision of strength. He likes to have that around him especially right now. You're watching, watching that the president really loves to have this idea of power and strength. And so for him that's right there is Markway Mullen. And so but I think for people who work within and around the dhs, they're probably hoping that it's a calm and not the scandal ridden DHS under Kristi Noem and Corey Lewandowski. And you know, I would lump in Stephen Miller in that department as well. He's relatively quiet and I think there's a reason for that. I think that there is hopes there that the administration to gain back control over DHS in a more, you know, not as heavy handed as Christy Dunn was trying to do, but in a more streamlined process. And I think between Tom Homan and Markway Mullen, that's probably the hope there.
- [42:03]
Joe Weisenthal
You know, it turns out Gregory Bovino is not a big fan of Tom Homan. Jeannie the profile today in the New York Times Bovino's final days Harsh words and few regrets. He mocked Homan, the administration's border czar, referencing accusations. Remember the $50,000 in the bag? You're not going to see me talking to anyone for a bag of money, he said. Some of the quotes are really something. I wish I'd caught even more illegal aliens, he said. I mean, we went as hard as we could, but there's always a creative and innovative solution to catching even more Jeannie. That's the kind of public relations battle that the incoming secretary is going to have to fight here, right in our remaining moment. What does he do about it?
- [42:48]
Jeannie Shan Zaino
He absolutely is. I think he should say good riddance to Be Vivino with his jacket that we all remain. Tom Holman has at least been able to introduce some more civility in Minneapolis and hopefully that continues elsewhere. And I do think that we're going to see Mullen try to just lean on home and say goodbye to Bovino and push back on Miller to Morris Point as much as he can. At least that's my hope. But again, the question is, does he allow ICE agents in other areas of our lives?
- [43:19]
Joe Weisenthal
Jeannie Shanzano and Maura Gillespie Many thanks for the insights. Thanks for listening to the Balance of Power podcast. Make sure to subscribe if you haven't already at Apple, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts. And you can find us live every weekday from Washington D.C. at Noontime eastern@bloomberg.com
- [43:38]
Podcast Announcer
if you follow markets, you know the value of long term thinking. You plan, you diversify, you prepare for volatility. But even the best strategies can't prevent every bad day. For more than 75 years, Cincinnati Insurance has helped individuals and businesses navigate tough moments with expertise, personal attention and independent agents who focus on relationships, not transactions, the Cincinnati Insurance companies let them make your bad day better. Find an agent@cin fin.com these days it
- [44:14]
Joe Weisenthal
seems like AI agents are just about everywhere you turn every field and every function. But without identity, you can't trust they'll serve your business instead of jeopardizing it. Fortunately, Okta helps you get identity right by securing your AI agents identities, giving you a single layer of control, a single standard of trust. So whether an AI agent supports a single user or your entire enterprise with Okta. You'll turn risk into opportunity. Secure every agent. Secure any agent. Okta secures AI.