Balance of Power: Vance Hails Progress on Gaza Peace Accord

Podcast: Balance of Power (Bloomberg)
Air Date: October 21, 2025
Hosts: Joe Matthew, Tyler Kendall
Notable Guests: Nick Wadhams (Bloomberg DC), Natasha Hall (CSIS), Jeannie Shanzano (Harvard Ash Center), Maura Gillespie (Blue Stack Strategies), Rep. Brian Stile (R-WI), Joe Doe (Bloomberg)

Episode Overview

This episode focuses on Vice President JD Vance’s visit to Israel amid international efforts to maintain and stabilize the Gaza ceasefire agreement brokered by the Trump administration. The hosts and expert guests analyze the challenges facing the accord, broader Middle East policy maneuvers, the ongoing US government shutdown and its domestic repercussions, and breaking economic news involving US access to strategic mineral resources in Kazakhstan.

Gaza Ceasefire: Progress and Peril

Situation on the Ground ([00:52]–[07:41])

• VP Vance’s Show of Support: Vice President JD Vance is touring Israel and visiting a US-led military-civilian command center intended to support the Gaza ceasefire and upcoming reconstruction. He emphasized the complexity and “hard work ahead” in achieving lasting peace.
  • Quote (JD Vance, relayed by Joe Matthew, [01:19]):
    “There's this inclination to say, oh, this is the end of the ceasefire, this is the end of the peace plan. It's not the end. It is in fact exactly how this is going to have to happen when you have people who hate each other, who have been fighting against each other for a very long time.”
• Setbacks and Skepticism: Heavy weekend fighting, including a deadly Hamas ambush and Israeli airstrikes, raised concerns about the durability of the ceasefire.
• US Commitment: The Biden administration views the ceasefire as a “signature achievement,” with significant political stakes if the deal fails, especially as potential Nobel Peace Prize chatter circulates.
  • Quote (Nick Wadhams, [02:26]):
    “If it doesn't stick, it will also be seen as a major failure, not only for the region, but it will say a lot about [Trump’s] deal making prowess.”

How the Ceasefire is Enforced ([04:03]–[05:45])

• The Joint Coordination Center: About 200 US troops are stationed at the center, but not in Gaza itself. The US is providing coordination, intelligence, and satellite support but will not deploy troops inside Gaza.
  • Quote (Nick Wadhams, [04:03]):
    "He’s there really as a symbolic show of support ... putting pressure on Israel not to go too far against Hamas and also trying to exert pressure on Hamas."
  • On American troops in Gaza ([04:56]):
    "There are not going to be U.S. troops on the ground in Gaza. But it's really a way ... the US putting its assets where its mouth is."
• US–Israel Military Coordination: Deep partnership between US CENTCOM and the Israeli military continues from the Iran crisis and now through the Gaza ceasefire.

European Diplomatic Efforts Regarding Ukraine ([05:46]–[07:08])

• Peace Plan Parallels: European allies are developing a 12-point peace proposal for Ukraine, reportedly modeled after Trump’s Gaza deal. US involvement is not yet confirmed, but the European push is aimed at halting fighting and potentially facilitating a Trump-Putin summit.

On-the-Ground Challenges in Gaza

Obstacles to Progress ([07:42]–[11:38])

• Ceasefire Fragility: Aid shipments have been cut, Israeli airstrikes continue, and Gaza suffers lawlessness without a stabilization force.
  • Quote (Natasha Hall, CSIS, [07:42]):
    “We’re already seeing the ceasefire agreement fall apart within the first week ... it really needs to be a pronounced, scaled up response to reverse, I think some of that indirect violence.”
  • Key Needs: Security mechanisms, scaled humanitarian aid, and a future plan for governance are missing.

Acceptable Levels of Violence? ([09:12]–[11:04])

• International Tolerance: There’s concern the global community may accept “a very low boil of violence” if it remains out of media headlines.
  • Quote (Natasha Hall, [09:12]):
    “The US and the international community might accept a very low boil essentially of violence in Gaza as long as it wasn’t making the headlines quite in the same way ...”

Disarming Hamas ([11:04]–[13:43])

• No Clear Successor: Removing Hamas as a military force leaves Gaza without a governance or police presence, leading to increased crime and public executions by Hamas.
  • Quote (Natasha Hall, [11:39]):
    “If you disarm Hamas ... what will take its place? Because there needs to be some kind of governance structure in Gaza and there needs to be some kind of police force as well... So I think the big question is ... what’s going to be there in the meantime to restore order?”
  • On Trump’s stance ([11:04]):
    “If Hamas does not disarm, ‘an end to Hamas will be fast furious and brutal.’” – (President Trump, quoted by Tyler Kendall)

Regional Actors and Stabilization Force ([13:43]–[15:44])

• Saudi & Regional Reluctance: While President Trump claims neighboring states will intervene militarily if needed, Natasha Hall notes regional countries are unlikely to “enforce” peace on the ground due to ongoing violence and high reconstruction costs.
  • Quote (Natasha Hall, [14:21]):
    “This is not an area that I think any Arab or Muslim country would want to inject their own forces into because it’s not really peacekeeping, it’s peace enforcing, which one could also say is fighting.”

Domestic Politics: Government Shutdown and Nominations

Shutdown Stalemate ([17:24]–[27:34])

• Status: Day 21 of the government shutdown with no resolution in sight.
• Sticking Points: Dispute over ACA premium subsidies. Senate Majority Leader John Thune is open to a 1-year continuing resolution; Democrats resist until healthcare provisions are addressed.
  • Quote (Jeannie Shanzano, [20:56]):
    “Shutdowns never result in voters policy changes or wins ... It’s usually and always about the politics of this thing. And at this point, both sides feel like they’re winning on the politics.”
  • Quote (Jeannie Shanzano, [21:43]):
    “The reality ... this thing also is not going to end until one person comes to the table and forces it. And that one person ... is Donald Trump. Until Donald Trump pulls the plug on this thing, it is not going to move forward.”
• Coverage of Senate Nominations: President Trump’s nominee for Special Counsel, Paul Ingrazia, faces likely defeat after offensive text messages are disclosed, causing both Republican and Democratic senators to express opposition.
  • Quote (Maura Gillespie, [23:55]):
    “That’s a disgusting way to speak. ... That’s disqualifying in and of itself.”
  • Quote (Jeannie Shanzano, [25:08]):
    “It is telling ... that the White House has not yet come out and said we are going to withdraw his name considering how disgusting these texts are.”

Special Legislation and the Shutdown ([27:36]–[27:52])

• Pay for Federal Workers and Troops: A bill to pay federal workers and the military during the shutdown is being debated, but remains tied up in the broader political battle over healthcare subsidies and Senate rules.

Stakeholder Perspective: Rep. Brian Stile (R-WI) on Shutdown Impacts ([32:21]–[38:24])

• Blame Game: Rep. Stile and Republicans blame Senate Democrats and Majority Leader Schumer for refusing a “clean CR”; Democrats say the White House is not engaging on key policy issues.
• Shutdown Consequences: Only short-term funding for the military, backlogs in economic assistance (including for farmers), and impending spikes in ACA premiums are highlighted.
  • Quote (Rep. Brian Stile, [36:05]):
    “The Affordable Care Act was anything but affordable for the American people. The program the Democrats put in place ... again, the Democrats set the sunset date themselves.”
• Farm Assistance and China Trade: USDA farm assistance is delayed; Stile supports both emergency relief and long-term trade deals with China to help Wisconsin farmers.

Economic Scoop: US Eyes Tungsten in Kazakhstan ([28:25]; [39:31]–[43:43])

• Strategic Pivot: The US, via private companies and Kazakh partners, is seeking access to one of the world’s largest untapped tungsten deposits, important for defense manufacturing and countering Chinese dominance of critical minerals.
  • Quote (Joe Doe, [39:50]):
    “It’s just another thing that really kind of emphasizes this ongoing trade war between the United States and China ... The Defense Department needs more [tungsten] and ... we need to wean our needs off of China.”
• Change in Policy: Recent $8.5B US-Australia pact signals a shift to diversify mineral supply chains away from China, including “nearshoring” approaches.
  • Concern over Hype: Some caution about a possible “meme stock” bubble in rare earths, differentiating substantial miners from juniors.

Notable Quotes & Moments

• On Peacemaking Realities: “These things do not proceed smoothly a lot of the time. The challenge is really holding the thing together.” – Nick Wadhams ([02:26])
• On Role of Regional Powers: “It’s not really peacekeeping, it’s peace enforcing, which one could also say is fighting.” – Natasha Hall ([14:21])
• On Shutdown Politics: “It’s upsetting ... [but] not surprising from the White House.” – Jeannie Shanzano ([25:08])

Timestamped Key Segments

| Timestamp | Segment | |-----------|-------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | 00:52 | Opening focus: Vance in Israel, Gaza ceasefire, and command center | | 02:26 | US–Israel military cooperation and ceasefire stakes | | 04:03 | Inside the Joint US–Israel Coordination Center | | 05:46 | Ukraine peace plan modeled on Gaza negotiations | | 07:42 | Natasha Hall on on-the-ground Gaza obstacles | | 09:12 | Ceasefire “low boil of violence” and humanitarian concerns | | 11:04 | Disarming Hamas and security vacuums | | 14:21 | Saudi Crown Prince, regional forces and peace enforcement | | 17:24 | Government shutdown, politics, and ACA subsidy extension fight | | 22:22 | Senate nominations controversy (Special Counsel Paul Ingrazia) | | 32:21 | Rep. Brian Stile interview: blame, impacts, and CR debate | | 36:05 | Obamacare premium spikes and their political implications | | 39:31 | US aims for tungsten access in Kazakhstan amid China rivalry | | 42:13 | Rare earth “meme stocks” concern (Joe Doe) | | 43:22 | US not seeking equity in Kazakh venture |

Episode Tone

Engaged, policy-driven, unsparing about setbacks, occasionally blunt—directly expressing frustrations and tough realities. The discourse combines granular analysis, political finger-pointing, and urgency about both Middle East security and US domestic government functions.

For Listeners

This episode is essential for those seeking a detailed understanding of the US role in the Gaza ceasefire, how US domestic politics and the government shutdown interplay with foreign policy, and how strategic economic maneuvers are emerging against the backdrop of US–China rivalry.

Skip the ads, but don’t miss:

• Natasha Hall’s breakdown of Gaza’s humanitarian needs ([07:42]–[15:44])
• Real-time political debate over the government shutdown ([17:24]–[27:52])
• The scoop on rare earths and strategic minerals ([39:31] on)