Loading summary
Transcript70 lines
- [00:00]
Narrator/Host
Every business starts with an idea. How can you go from daydreamer to industry leader? Amazon Business accelerates your journey with smart business buying. Get everything you need to grow in one familiar place. From office supplies to IT essentials and maintenance tools. Amazon Business takes the buying experience you know and love from Amazon plus tools that help you save costs and make insights based decisions ready to bring your visions to life. Learn how@AmazonBusiness.com Bloomberg Audio Studios podcasts Radio news. You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch us live weekdays at noon and 5pm Eastern on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts or watch us live on YouTube.
- [00:53]
Tyler Kendall
I'm Tyler Kendall alongside Joe Matthew and as Joe laid out earlier, we have our full attention today on ISRA as Vice President JD Vance begins a three day tour of the country. He spoke earlier today to reporters. He was at this US Led military civilian command center which is hoping to help implement this cease fire for the long term. He told reporters though that there's a.
- [01:17]
Natasha Hall
Lot of hard work ahead.
- [01:19]
Joe Matthew
There's this inclination to say, oh, this is the end of the ceasefire, this is the end of the peace plan. It's not the end. It is in fact exactly how this is going to have to happen when you have people who hate each other, who have been fighting against each other for a very long time. We are doing very well. We are in a very good place. We're going to have to keep working on it, but I think we have the team to do exactly that. Vice president in Tel Aviv earlier standing alongside if you're with us on Bloomberg tv, Jared Kushner, Steve Witkoff, they're on the trip together here. As Tyler mentioned, he'll have a couple of days ahead. But he went on to chide the media for celebrating, as he mentioned, the idea of failure. And it was a tough weekend. We have to be honest about what's been happening on the ground. Heavy fighting in Gaza over the weekend with both a deadly Hamas ambush and Israeli airstrikes, are causing many to ask the very obvious question if this ceasefire can hold. Before we're joined by Natasha hall at csis, we spent some time with Nick Wadhams who runs our national security coverage here from Washington. He's with us in our D.C. bureau. Nick, I don't know if it's possible to answer this question right now. What are you watching to try to find out?
- [02:26]
Nick Wadhams
Well, I think the big question is going to be what happens next and whether Hamas is able to, is willing to disarm. I mean, so you had the initial element of the ceasefire, which was the release of hostages and the release of Palestinian prisoners. And now we move to the much more difficult phases. What happens to Hamas? Because Israel has made very clear all along that it will not accept a solution in Gaza where Hamas remains in power or with any sort of control or leverage. They basically want it to wiped off the map. And then obviously Hamas counters and says, we don't really have any interest in that. Though they did say recently, you know, we are willing to undergo this, this power transition. But I mean, when I look at that, what you, what I really see is, you know, the Trump administration has billed this cease fire as a signature achievement by the President. Obviously they want it to stick. If it doesn't stick, it will also be seen as a major failure, not only for the region, but it will say a lot about his deal making prowess. I mean, they have hailed this as something essentially should give him the Nobel Peace Prize. And if, you know, 10 days into it, it's already showing signs of failure. I mean, it should be pointed out that, yes, the Vice President is right, these things do not proceed smoothly a lot of the time. And the challenge is really holding the thing together.
- [03:43]
Tyler Kendall
Well, let's talk about some of the ways that the administration is trying to make this stick. Can you walk us through what this coordination center entails? We know that about 200American troops are staffed there, but what are, what does this effort actually look like in practice? What is happening on the ground? As we know that the Vice President is visiting with this center today.
- [04:04]
Nick Wadhams
I mean, he's there really sort of as a symbolic show of support and trying to, I think, send a message to both sides. Listen, Vice President is here. President Donald Trump and the administration has a great deal invested in this deal. And so that's in a way putting pressure on Israel not to go too far against Hamas and also trying to exert pressure on Hamas, so keeping this thing from sort of spinning out of control, you know, and the Joint Coordination center really is a similar move by the US they're monitoring the ceasefire. He's been very explicit. There are not going to be U.S. troops on the ground in Gaza. But it's really a way of sort of the US putting its assets where its mouth is, saying we have a stake in this as well, to try to keep the two sides in this thing and, and committed to a cease fire. Where efforts at ceasefire in the past have failed so many times.
- [04:57]
Joe Matthew
Those American troops will not cross into Gaza. Is what we have heard correct. Are they directing IDF in Gaza?
- [05:04]
Nick Wadhams
I, we have not gotten that level of detail. I think what you're seeing really is the US Offering intelligence, satellite imagery, other assets to help identify where cease fire violations are occurring and then bringing US advice and involvement. I mean, you know, the US Central Command has been involved a great deal. For example, when Israel exchanged fire with Iran, Israeli armed forces were consulting with the US Military over what to do and how to respond. So there is a deep partnership between the US Military and the Israeli military and has been very explicitly in the last couple of years. So I think what you're seeing is a continuation of that in the final.
- [05:46]
Tyler Kendall
Minute we have you. I want to turn to another foreign policy issue which is that we had this redhead on the terminal. People familiar telling Bloomberg News that European allies are working with Ukraine to prepare a 12 point peace proposal. Now, it was interesting to me because it mirrors a little of what we've heard in Gaza, including that President Trump could potentially lead a peace commission that would oversee the ceasefire. Just top lines here. What do we know about what this plan would entail if it goes through?
- [06:13]
Nick Wadhams
Well, I think what you're really seeing is a European effort to essentially set the terms of a potential Ukraine deal along the lines of what President Trump had done in Gaza to try to mimic that. It would, it would offer some form of security guarantees for Ukraine. But really what this is, is an effort by the Europeans to get involved and say essentially, okay, here, that here's here, here's a potential proposal that we could get both sides to agree to. Obviously US Involvement would need to be crucial to this as well. There's some indication that the Trump administration has not quite given its imprimatur to this. So this is really a push by the Europeans to essentially halt the fighting where it is now and then push the two sides toward a conversation. They're not talking. They want to at least give them something to talk about as we head into the possibility of a Trump Putin summit at some point in the future.
- [07:08]
Tyler Kendall
All right, Bloomberg's Nick Wadhams, he runs our national security coverage here in Washington. Thank you so much. And to expand the conference conversation, we're joined now by Natasha hall, non resident senior associate at the center for Strategic and International Studies. Natasha, thanks so much for joining Bloomberg today. And as we've been talking about, Vice President J.D. vance is there in Israel. He said that there is still work to be done and a long road ahead. Just from your view, what are some of those biggest hurdles that we could actually see progress on in the coming days and weeks.
- [07:42]
Natasha Hall
Yeah, thanks for having me again. I mean, I think that J.D. vance's visit is really meant to throw more weight behind this peace proposal because one should note that this was a peace plan, not just a ceasefire agreement. And we're already seeing the ceasefire agreement fall apart within the first week. So there's a lot of hurdles ahead. In answer to your question, in terms of aid trucks going in, Israel has already said that it's slashing that in half due to the delayed return of deceased hostages from hamas. We've seen 100 killed in recent days due to Israeli airstrikes. We're seeing a lot of lawlessness in Gaza right now because there's really no security mechanisms in place. So there's a lot that can potentially go wrong. So it's good to hear the vice President saying they understand that the signing of this first phase of the agreement is not the end of it and that there's a lot of hard work ahead because I think myself and many other analysts watching this very closely have said exactly that, that the end of US Pressure to move this through is simply not over.
- [08:53]
Joe Matthew
Hard work is a given, Natasha, but what's the threshold for violence Sunday? I wondered if we would still have a ceasefire by the time the workweek opened here when Israel launched strikes against Hamas in Gaza, suspended all aid shipments. How many more headlines like that can a ceasefire survive?
- [09:13]
Natasha Hall
Thank you so much for that question. I think it's a really vital question for all of us to be asking, because the reality, I think, is that the US and the international community might accept a very low boil essentially of violence in Gaza as long as it wasn't making the headlines quite in the same way that the famine and the constant bombardment was just days earlier. But the reality is that Israel can really put the pressure on Gaza simply through these aid obstructions, as we've seen in the past week, and the sort of more irregular airstrikes in addition to the fact that Israeli forces still occupy more than half of Gazan territory. So, you know, there's the direct violence of the actual war and the conflict, but then there's also the indirect violence on a place that has been experiencing widespread famine and, you know, really requires somewhat of a Marshall Plan, not just sort of a seeping in of hundreds of trucks per day. It really needs to be a pronounced, scaled up response to reverse, I think some of that indirect violence. But I think the issue here is whether or not there's going to be put in place, a monitoring mechanism that really looks at not just the number of trucks going through, but, but actually the effects on the ground. Are we seeing a reversal of a lot of the various issues that I just mentioned? Starvation, the lack of medical personnel and equipment? Are we seeing a reversal and a rebuilding of the Gaza Strip? Because we haven't even gotten to the phase two where we're talking about an international stabilization force, the actual rebuilding of Gaza. 80% of the structures have been destroyed in the Gaza Strip. So there's a long road ahead.
- [11:05]
Tyler Kendall
Well, speaking about these big questions, including what the reconstruction of Gaza is going to look like, another big question is surrounding the future of whether or not Hamas is going to disarm. And we heard from President Trump earlier today on Truth Social posting that if Hamas does not disarm, quote, an end to Hamas will be fast furious and brutal, unquote. Can you just give us a little bit of context here? What do the discussions look like for Hamas to disarm and what are we looking at if the group ultimately doesn't?
- [11:39]
Natasha Hall
Right, so let's just zoom out a little bit and acknowledge the fact that Hamas, regardless of what anyone thinks of them, has been the government in Gaza for over two decades and has also been essentially the police force there. And right now you have essentially vacuums throughout the Gaza Strip. There is no international stabilization force. There is no other entity. And so you've seen rising inter clan, inter gang violence in Hamas, which in Gaza, which Hamas is essentially tried to eradicate through these very public executions that we've seen in recent days. But I think the real question is if you disarm Hamas, which is clearly the goal of many regional partners in Israel and the United States and others, what will take its place? Because there needs to be some kind of governance structure in Gaza and there needs to be some kind of police force as well, because what we've seen is Israel has also been supporting some of these other gangs and militias within Gaza that have been looting aid in recent months. So there needs to be something there. So I think the big question is, you know, if the international stabilization force by some accounts, might take months to actually put in place, what's going to be there in the meantime to restore order, to allow, you know, humanitarian workers to go through in safety, etc. And that's a, that's a really big question. And so I think for that reason, you've seen President Trump essentially go back and forth on this. At one point, he said he's not so unhappy about Seeing these public executions of gang members by Hamas and at the same time saying that they need to eradicate Hamas if it fails to disarm. So I mean, I think that this is the, this is a larger question. Who is going to provide security in Gaza in the, in the weeks and months ahead?
- [13:44]
Joe Matthew
Natasha, the President said a lot in that post at 9 o' clock this morning, including numerous of our now great allies, as he called them in the Middle east and areas surrounding the Middle east have explicitly and strongly, with great enthusiasm, informed me they would welcome the opportunity. Opportunity at my request, to go into Gaza with a heavy force and straighten out Hamas if Hamas continues to act badly in violation of their agreement with us. I'm just wondering your thoughts on the neighbors, as the President likes to call them, in light of the headline today that the Saudi Crown Prince will be visiting the White House next month, what will that meeting bring?
- [14:22]
Natasha Hall
Yeah, well, I think the Saudi Crown Prince MBS will be focused very much on a defense pact with the United States rather than simply offering a peace force, as he put it, to the Gaza Strip. Listen, I don't think that this is attractive to any Arab or Muslim country. We're still seeing airstrikes, we're still seeing infighting. This is not an area that I think any Arab or Muslim country would want to inject their own forces into because it's not really peacekeeping, it's peace enforcing, which one could also say is fighting. And so I think that that's, that's the big issue today. It's probably not going to be a majority force from oil rich nations, but it's probably going to be from Egypt and other countries that actually stand up a pretty major military elements or have a, you know, a larger military to offer to the Gaza Strip. But I think that that remains to be seen. Again, what those forces will entail. We haven't even really talked very much about how much money these oil rich countries are willing to inject into Gaza which is going to take about 50 billion or more to reconstruct. So you know, again, I think we're a long ways off from, from seeing Saudi forces.
- [15:45]
Joe Matthew
Natasha, thank you. It's always a pleasure to spend some time. Natasha hall at csis, the center for Strategic and International Studies. We've got our eyes on the Rose Garden Club. We're going to assemble our panel next right here on the fastest show in politics. This is Bloomberg. Stay with us on Balance of Power. We'll have much more coming up after this.
- [16:07]
Public Investing Advertiser
You're thoughtful about where your money goes You've got your core holdings, some recurring crypto buys, maybe even a few strategic options plays on the side. The point is you're engaged with your investments and Public gets that. That's why they built an investing platform for those who take it seriously. On Public you can put together a multi asset portfolio for the long haul. Stocks, bonds, options, crypto. It's all there plus an industry leading 3.8% APY high yield cash account. Switch to the platform built for those who take investing seriously. Go to public.com and earn an uncapped 1.1percent bonus when you transfer your portfolio. That's public.com paid for by Public Investing. All investing involves the risk of loss, including loss of principal. Brokerage services for U.S. listed registered securities options and bonds in a self directed account are offered by Public Investing Inc. Member Finran SIPC crypto trading provided by Backed Crypto Solutions LLC. Complete disclosures available@public.com disclosure you're listening to.
- [17:09]
Narrator/Host
The Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch us live weekdays at noon and 5pm Eastern on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts or watch us live on YouTube.
- [17:24]
Tyler Kendall
We have one eye on Pennsylvania Avenue where today President Trump welcomed Senate Republicans. They spoke about a range of issues earlier, including what's been an expedited process for confirmation of some of President Trump's nominees. But of course top of mind has been the government shutdown, which is now officially in day 21 with little sign that there is any progress towards a deal reopen now. President Trump addressed this earlier, saying that it is all about partisan politics.
- [17:56]
Joe Matthew
Unfortunately, in a craven and pointless act of partizan spite, Chuck Schumer, who I've known for a long time and the radical left Democrats are holding the entire federal government hostage to appease the extremists in their party. President Trump reading prepared remarks in the Rose Garden, or the Rose Garden Club as he likes to put it a short time ago where Republican senators have gathered in the sun today to celebrate unity. The President inviting them to talk about holding the line on the government shutdown and helping to pass his nominations in the Senate, which have been moving on a bit more. And we've got a new wrinkle on that that we'll mention to you. The President's nominee to run the special Counsel's office could be in trouble. His hearing is set for Thursday and we've got another potential text scandal it looks like. But on day 21 we are still talking about a shutdown with no end in sight and in fact even floating the idea, you know, that things could be a little bit troubled when we're floating the idea of a year long continuing resolution, just kick the can for a year so we don't have to fight anymore. That's the narrative today in the Capitol as we assemble our political panel. Bloomberg Politics contributor Democratic analyst Jeannie Shan Zaino is with us, Democracy visiting fellow at Harvard Kennedy School's Ash Center. Maura Gillespie is with us as well, Republican strategist and founder of Blue Stack Strategies. Maura, you worked for a former speaker of the House in John Boehner and the idea of a year long CR is something that a lot of Republicans have an allergy to. Is that in fact how this all ends?
- [19:31]
Maura Gillespie
I mean, seeing of my years in secret Boehner's office, it's hard for me to maybe stomach that. But I do think that things are just so divisive right now that I, I worry that without something more long term, we'll be having this fight on repeat and unfortunately have another shutdown in the future. And I'd rather not see that happen. And so I do think that maybe looking at getting past this stage which at this point, and I know we'll get into it, but it does feel as though Democrats need to come to the come and just end the shutdown because I do think Thune is being fair in sense that he's willing to have conversations, he's willing to bring legislation to the floor to extend subsidies in a way that also doesn't, you know, isolate every Republican vote in both chambers. But this shutdown isn't serving the greater good. And I think that no American benefits when we have a government shutdown. And unfortunately Congress has for a long time struggled to get this, you know, their funding appropriations done in a timely fashion.
- [20:32]
Tyler Kendall
Well, Jeannie, what is the risk reward calculus here for Democrats? Because as Mora points out, we've heard from Senate Majority Leader John Thune who says that Democrats can have a up and down vote on a one year extension of those premium Affordable Care act tax subsidies. How are Democrats looking at their options on the table right now or is this just going to keep going on until they actually get some tangible policy changes?
- [20:57]
Jeannie Shanzano
Yeah. You know, my view, Tyler, is that shutdowns never result in voters policy changes or wins, I should say. And so it's usually and always about the politics of this thing. And at this point, both sides feel like they're winning on the politics. And that's the problem until one or both start to feel pain. We're not going to see this change. And so Democrats, I suspect, will hold out at least until that November 1st date because of course, what we're going to see then, and Bloomberg has been reporting this is the skyrocketing of health care subsidies. I think, Joe, you said at the beginning of the top of the show quadrupling in Georgia, about a quarter in Maine, almost 20% in Michigan. The list goes on and on. And oddly, this is going to be impacting Trump states, red states more viciously than it's going to impact blue states. So it's his own voters and the president knows that because he's spoken about it in the past. So I think we will see the Democrats hold out for that. And the reality of this, and I don't know anybody in Washington who doesn't think that this thing also is not going to end until one person comes to the table and forces it. And that one person, I'm sorry to say is a Democrat, is not Chuck Schumer. It is Donald Trump. Until Donald Trump pulls the plug on this thing, it is not going to move forward.
- [22:22]
Joe Matthew
Donald Trump just a short time ago invited John Thune to the podium in the Rose Garden to talk to his members who were lunching in the Sun. Knowing that he said we may have no choice but to pursue a one year cr. And by the way, Donald Trump may not have a problem with that. It was the White House that suggested that a couple of months ago when everyone's had exploded on Capitol Hill at the idea that could in fact become a reality. But I want to ask you about the nominations that are also being celebrated in the Rose Garden Club today. It's not just holding the line on the shutdown, Maura, as you well know, the president wanted to thank Republican senators for moving on block in some cases a huge number of nominees. Of course, that's the job of the Senate and it's one that doesn't get a lot of coverage. But there's one that may just not make it. According to John Thune himself, quote, he's not going to pass the line from the majority leader. We're talking about Paul Ingrazia, the president's nominee to run the office of the Special Counsel. This is another text scandal that has been made public by Politico. Allegedly, of course, that has now prompted at least three other Republicans to oppose his nomination. In this text chain which was repeatedly bumping into themes of Nazism, he said that Martin Luther King Jr. S holiday should be tossed into the city. Seventh Circle of Hell, and that when asked about his viewpoints, he said he has a bit of a Nazi streak. Is Mr. Ingrassia's nomination as good as dead?
- [23:56]
Maura Gillespie
MAURA it certainly should be. I mean, that's a disgusting way to speak. Just even if it's in private text messages, the fact that he has that on his heart and he believes that enough to say it, whether he's in his mind joking or not, there's something that spurred him to say it and that's disqualifying in and of itself. And so Thune is right to say that, you know, there's not going to pass on Thursday. I'm sure that's a conversation that's being had in that lunch right now as they're celebrating. You know, I think there are probably some Republican senators who have a bit of a queasiness about some of the ones that they've gotten through in that first, you know, few months there that, you know, I think of Pam Bondi, I think of RFK Jr. I think there are a couple of senators who are wondering if they made the right choices. But with this they seem the fact that so many again, you said three at least maybe four or five I've seen they're going to say that this isn't a yes vote for them. That's encouraging to me.
- [24:50]
Tyler Kendall
Right. And the Republican senators expressing opposition. The list keeps building. We also heard from Senator James Lankford, a Republican from Oklahoma, earlier today saying that he thinks In Gracia should withdraw. Jeannie, is just is this just mounting pressure on the White House? When can we expect to hear from from them, if at all, on this nomination?
- [25:08]
Jeannie Shanzano
Yeah, I mean, it is telling and I agree wholeheartedly with what Maura just said. It is telling to me that the White House has not yet come out and said we are going to withdraw his name. Considering how disgusting these texts are, this is, though, not surprising from the White House. Right. We have had a president who has flirted with neo Nazis in the past. He is being accused, by the way of at the Quantico speech, of dog whistling to neo Nazis. The list of things goes on and on. And of course, this comes at a time when people in this country who have long fought for civil rights are feeling under threat from a variety of specters, including the the attack on dei, but also the Voting Rights act case that the Supreme Court is arguing in May Court Supreme Strike down Section two any day now or at least in the spring. So it is shocking and his name should be withdrawn immediately from this White House, but they haven't, at least as far as I know, had any statement on this, which is not surprising. But it is, it is upsetting.
- [26:22]
Joe Matthew
It's an oddity here because I don't think anyone really even knows who leads the office of the Special Counsel. It's not like we're talking about attorney General here more or secretary of State. This could, this could have been handled pretty quietly. Right. If you're a nominee, it's not unusual to have a withdrawal letter handy in case something happens. Does Ingrassia just handle this on his own?
- [26:45]
Maura Gillespie
I mean, I don't know. I think when you look at some of the Trump White House, either whether they're candidates or acting positions, they have all mostly decided to go with the Trump method of doubling down, tripling down and holding firm and more or less hoping that the president will back them and then the public scrutiny and our distaste for it will subside because something else will come and distract us from their issue. And unfortunately, I do think that's probably what he is holding out for. He's waiting for direction from the White House. He's not going to back down on his own accord, which speaks more about him and his own personal moral compass than anything else. But I do think there are some people in the White House who should have acted and have not done so yet. And maybe today's meetings with Republican senators giving the president a real picture of what's going to happen on Thursday may help spur that action to take place today.
- [27:37]
Tyler Kendall
Jeannie, final 30 seconds here. I do want to ask you about some policy we could see hit the Senate floor this week. This bill to pay federal workers and our troops. Are we expecting this to actually pass amid the shutdown? Because it looks like Democrats are the ones opposing this.
- [27:52]
Jeannie Shanzano
Yeah, you know, my view is that it should pass, but I can see that the Democrats point, which is that it still doesn't address the underlying issue, which is the Obamacare subsidy. So I think it's still an open question whether it passed. And of course, you've got some Democrats like Fetterman out there calling for real changes to Senate rules to avoid these kinds of things in the future in this filibuster, the necessity of the filibuster proof majority that's going to obviously rankle people on both sides of the aisle.
- [28:26]
Tyler Kendall
All right, our political panel today, Jeannie Shanzano and Maura Gillespie. We thank you both so much for joining, as always. And Joe, we did get a redhead on the Bloomberg terminal moments ago. President Trump's administration is involved in talks for a US Company to access one of the world's largest untapped deposits of tungsten in Kazakhstan.
- [28:47]
Joe Matthew
That's right, News coming from Kazakhstan, potentially by way of the White House. We'll keep tabs on this for you. As Tyler mentioned, it just went red on the terminal, so we'll have much more straight ahead. Also our conversation with Congressman Brian Style. We've been talking shutdown. Let's hear from a stakeholder in the House. The Republican from Wisconsin is in the nation's capital and will join us live straight ahead here as we talk politics in Washington. On Balance of Power this is Bloomberg. Stay with us. On Balance Of Power Of Power will have much more coming up after this.
- [29:17]
Public Investing Advertiser
You're thoughtful about where your money goes. You've got your core holdings, some recurring crypto buys, maybe even a few strategic options plays on the side. The point is you're engaged with your investments and Public gets that. That's why they built an investing platform for those who take it seriously. On Public you can put together a multi asset portfolio for the long haul. Stocks, bonds, options, crypto. It's all there plus an industry leading 3.8% APY high yield cash account. Switch to the platform built for those who take investing seriously. Go to public.com and earn an uncapped 1% bonus when you transfer your portfolio. That's public.com paid for by Public Investing. All investing involves the risk of loss, including loss of principal. Brokerage services for U.S. listed registered securities options and bonds in a self directed account are offered by Public Investing Inc. Member Finran SIPC crypto trading provided by Bakkt Crypto Solutions LLC. Complete disclosures available@public.com disclosures you're listening to.
- [30:18]
Narrator/Host
The Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch us live weekdays at noon and 5pm Eastern on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station. Just say Alexa play Bloomberg 11:30 with.
- [30:37]
Joe Matthew
Our eyes on Capitol Hill and a government shutdown that is now 21 days old. Maybe you've stopped keeping count at this point because nobody seems to see light at the end of the tunnel. We do see some important dates though, including the next paycheck fulfillment for our military or active duty military. Remembering that $8 billion at the President managed to find to pay the troops only covers a single pay period. You've also got federal law enforcement and there's a piece of legislation that's going up in the United States Senate that would address some of this, it's just not expected necessarily to pass. As we told you yesterday, Democrats are not on board, just like they are not on board with the continuing resolution. And I'll tell you what, Tyler, as we consider the idea here of a CR expiring on the 21st of November, that's the plan on the table. It's a month away from today. You've also got November 1st open enrollment beginning and the expiration of SNAP benefits. So maybe it's no wonder John Thune suggests a full year CR might be coming.
- [31:39]
Tyler Kendall
Not just suggesting a full year CR might be in the pipeline, but also that maybe it's time for the House to come back into session so that they can repass a clean CR that has that end date in place. Because as you mentioned, November 21st is what they're currently voting on. But we are just ticking closer and closer to that now. We're lucky to be joined now by one of those members of Congress who is currently out of session. But joins us now from Capitol Hill. That's Congressman Brian Stile, Republican representing Wisconsin's 1st district. Congressman, it's good to see you and thanks so much for joining. I'd loved your your opinion on this. The Senate Majority Leader suggesting it's time for the House to come back into session. Do you think that's a good idea?
- [32:22]
Congressman Brian Stile
Well, it's time for the Senate to pass the clean cr. We're in this situation because the Senate Democratic leadership under Chuck Schumer refuses to vote for a clean cr. This used to be a non controversial vote here on Capitol Hill. In fact, Democrats have voted time and again in favor of clean crs, most recently in the spring. What changed is the politics for Democrats, the United States Senate. So the the House has done our job. We're all waiting for the Senate to do their job. Chuck Schumer is beholden to his radical base. A lot of us are frustrated. It's time for us to move on because there's really important negotiations in front of us, including fiscal year 26 appropriations as well as other prior policy priorities that you mentioned.
- [33:06]
Joe Matthew
Congressman, it's good to see you. Kevin Hassett had suggested yesterday maybe there's capitulation this week and this whole thing comes to an end. But every time the Senate votes on this, it's the same two Democrats and independent who break ranks here. So I mean, at some point we could be bumping up against November 21st. What do we do then? Do you wait forever for Senate Democrats? We just stay shut down until Chuck Schumer changes his tune.
- [33:30]
Congressman Brian Stile
Well, the consequences of the Schumer shutdown continue to build. President Trump has done a great job taking some extreme extraordinary actions to make sure that the consequences aren't felt by our troops, for example. But many of these are one time actions. And so the consequences will continue to build. The pressure will build. And I do believe at some point the Senate will come to the table and recognize that their action to close the federal government and put at risk, for example, payment to our troops, the men and women wearing the United States military uniform, was the wrong bat. The sooner we come out of the shutdown and begin the substantive negotiations and fiscal year 26 approach, as well as other policy priorities, the better off we are.
- [34:14]
Tyler Kendall
Well, the White House has come to the table on some of these really critical issues like military pay, pay for the Coast Guard, also finding that supplementary funding for that key federal nutrition assistance program that helps women and children. But, Congressman, we hear from Democrats that they want President Trump to come to the negotiating table when it comes to the policy stances at stake here, particularly related to health care. We know he had this luncheon today with Senate Republicans, but do you think President Trump should be getting more involved as this shutdown drags on?
- [34:45]
Congressman Brian Stile
Well, I think again, the challenge here is we put forward a clean CR now, as you noted weeks ago passed in the House. We're three weeks into a shutdown. We should be three weeks in to the cr, utilizing the time that we're burning right now to negotiate those policy priorities. Many of these have year end deadlines, appropriate conversations for us to be having. But we should be doing that in the context of an open and operational government. Again, the House did our job. The Senate is running into filibuster challenges. Senator Fetterman is even calling now and saying maybe we have to overcome that because a minority of United States state senators are standing in the way under the leadership of Chuck Schumer from reopening the federal government.
- [35:28]
Joe Matthew
Hmm. You've seen what's going on with the premiums here, Congressman. And I know that you're careful not to conflate this debate with that of government funding. But we saw a couple of states this morning in Georgia where I know Congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Greene has been making some noise here. Obamacare premiums could rise as much as as four times. They could quadruple. In Maine, plans will see premiums up an average of 24%. In Michigan could surpass 18%. And that's before factoring in the expiration. What would it mean for people looking at their subsidies rise in Wisconsin.
- [36:06]
Congressman Brian Stile
Well, I think what we see is the data continues to come in that the Affordable Care act was anything but affordable for the American people. The program the Democrats put in place, again, the Democrats set the sunset date themselves. This was a Democrat decision to sunset it at the end of the year. But what we continue to see is challenges inside the structure of the program. There is plenty of evidence of the waste, fraud and abuse inside this Democrat created program. There's a Treasury report that came out under President Biden that identifies the significant flaws in side these premium credits that go back to insurance companies as to why it's structurally unsound. So at an absolute minimum, we would need to make meaningful and substantive reform in the program. But again, these are the conversations and the debates that we should be having right now on Capitol Hill instead were shut down all because Chuck Schumer and Democrats in the Senate refused to open the government with a clean CR to allow these negotiations and debate to take place.
- [37:05]
Tyler Kendall
Well, Congressman Joe just outlined one of the potential impacts for constituents. Another has to do with economic assistance for farmers. A senior administration official tells me that's currently been delayed because of this ongoing shutdown. I looked up the stats. The USDA estimates Wisconsin farmers produce $1.3 billion worth of soybeans each year. This is of course at the center of this issue as China hasn't imported any US Soybeans so far this harvest season. I'm wondering if you're in any discussions with the administration on what this aid package might look like. Are they talking with Congress on this and any update on when it could be rolled out?
- [37:42]
Congressman Brian Stile
I had a long conversation with two soybean farmers from Wisconsin yesterday talking about this exact challenge. The short term fix may be that type of a subsidy, but the long term fix is getting trade agreements in place and having China once again purchased purchasing U.S. soy. The U.S. soy exports are heavily dependent on the Chinese markets. The broader trade negotiations that we're having is causing concern. I'm of the view that we have a huge opportunity here to work with our allies, hold China accountable and then strike the trade deal. I think President Trump's in a position to do that. The short term fix may be providing some level of assistance. The long term fix is striking these trade agreements to the benefit of of American workers and farmers.
- [38:24]
Joe Matthew
Congressman, we appreciate the insights as always. That's Brian Stile, Republican Congressman from Wisconsin who chairs the House Admin Committee. And always a pleasure to have the chairman with us as part of our conversation here on Bloomberg Tyler, there's more breaking news. You mentioned it very quickly. We're learning more about tungsten than some of us have ever known. When we start talking about rare earths and rare minerals that are used in this case in the manufacturing of defense equipment and other critical technologies. This is a big one, a chemical element. If I bring you back to chemistry class, it has the symbol W, its Atomic number is 74, and it has the highest melting point of all known elements. Which is why, Tyler, this is one of the most sought after ingredients for weapons manufacturing, especially when it comes to building rockets.
- [39:14]
Tyler Kendall
Markets, Right, Exactly. And this headline appears to be underscoring the administration's push to try to bolster its own supply and position in the critical and rare earth market to really compete with China ahead of this really important meeting next week between President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping.
- [39:32]
Joe Matthew
Yeah, that's right. Joe Doe is writing about this right now on the Breaker. And I hope that Joe doesn't mind us interrupting his coverage here in the clutch. Bloomberg News economic statecraft reporter Joe, it's great to have you. This is a big one, of course, as we remind ourselves that all roads lead to China.
- [39:49]
Congressman Brian Stile
Yeah, exactly.
- [39:50]
Joe Doe
It, in a lot of ways is just another thing that really kind of emphasizes this, this ongoing trade war between the United States and China, which we have seen escalated now in recent weeks. Tungsten is just another one of those critical minerals that the Defense Department needs more of and that the US has said, listen, we need to wean our needs off of China. Specific.
- [40:19]
Tyler Kendall
Joe, let's connect the dots here and look at the broader picture. Yesterday, the US and Australia inking this $8.5 billion cooperation agreement when it comes to critical minerals. Does this mark perhaps a new era for the administration as it is looking at supply chains? Because up to this point, we've really seen them focus on domestic projects. Right. I'm thinking MP materials, trilogy, trilogy, medals, things like that. But now it looks like we're kind of pointing outward.
- [40:45]
Joe Doe
Yeah, I think, you know, this is one of the things we had been talking about recently, which is we had reported at the end of September that there were a group of mining companies from Australia in the US In DC in the middle of September. And they were talking to senior Trump administration officials who had been saying, look, we're looking for warrants in companies, we're looking for offtake agreements and when you can, bringing your processing or production here to the United States. And one of the things that we noted when we had that scoop was this is a very serious indication that the administration is looking at foreign companies. And this group that we have out now with tungsten says that Howard Lutnick himself has been facilitating talks with the US Private company and the sovereign wealth fund of Kazakhstan. Again, so that's another non US Based deposit. And it's showing that maybe the Trump administration when it comes to these critical minerals, supply chain permanent magnets, everything else are saying, you know what, near shoring might be an important aspect of this whole thing. We can't just do it all here.
- [41:51]
Joe Matthew
We've been seeing a pretty interesting turn in some of the companies that Tyler mentioned. Whether it's MP or some of the others that have been on an absolute tear. Most recently, in fact, MP Materials was up over 400% year to date. Shares of other rare earth companies, USA Rare Earth, Ramaco, some of the. Are these the new meme stocks, Joe?
- [42:13]
Joe Doe
That's a concern. That's a real concern. There was a note out earlier this week from I believe it was one of the big banks saying there is a concern that some of this becomes a bit of a meme stock situation. You have the good companies, the ones with substantial balance sheets that have serious operations or deposits that are more than deposits, like actual mining activity. And then you've got a lot of others who are exploration companies and junior miners. That's a space that I covered for 10 years at Bloomberg. And typically if you're exploration or junior miner, that's not like you were sitting down writing a big story about them, right? It was these guys would go to conferences and show you something called core samples, which were just long cylindrical things sitting on a table of literal earth that they had shot down into the ground, grabbed up and showed, hey, look at all the veins that are in here. I mean these are the kind of companies that we could be talking about and that is a concern in all of this. Despite the fact that we need these minerals, despite the fact that the administration is putting effort into bringing onshore supply chain of it, you do have to wonder which of these will actually materialize.
- [43:22]
Tyler Kendall
All right. And Joe, I'm going to pull one line from your reporting. The Trump administration is not currently seeking an equity stake in this venture, according to U.S. officials. Joe Doe, Bloomberg News Economic Statecraft Reporter thank you so much. And quite the incredible scoop, Joe, especially on this news that we are gearing up for this big high stakes meeting between President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping.
- [43:43]
Joe Matthew
Tungsten letter W I've learned that you love learn a lot today about chemistry apparently. Yeah, well I'm learning as I go here. Thanks for listening to the Balance of Power podcast. Make sure to subscribe if you haven't already at Apple, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts. And you can find us live every Weekday from Washington, D.C. at Noontime Eastern@Bloomberg.com Mint is still $15 a month for premium wireless, and if you haven't made the switch yet, here are 15 reasons why you should 1. It's $15 a month.
- [44:14]
Narrator/Host
2.
- [44:15]
Joe Matthew
Seriously, it's $15 a month.
- [44:17]
Maura Gillespie
3.
- [44:18]
Joe Matthew
No big contracts.
- [44:19]
Tyler Kendall
4.
- [44:20]
Joe Matthew
I use it. 5. My mom used to say are you. Are you playing me off? That's what's happening, right? Okay, give it a try@mintmobile.com Switch upfront.
- [44:28]
Tyler Kendall
Payment of 45 for 3 month plan $15 per month equivalent required New customer offer first 3 months only, then full.
- [44:32]
Natasha Hall
Price plan options available, taxes and fees extra.
- [44:34]
Joe Matthew
See mintmobile.com this podcast is brought to you by FedEx the new power Move hey, you know those people in your office who are always pulling old school corporate power moves? Like the guy who weaponizes eye contact. He's confident, he's engaged, he's often creepy. It's an old school power move. But this alpha dog laser gaze won't keep your supply chain moving across borders. The real power move? Having a smart platform that keeps up with the changing trade landscape. That's why smart businesses partner with FedEx and use the power of digital intelligence to navigate around supply chain issues before they happen. Set your sights on something that will actually improve your business. FedEx the new power Move.