Transcript
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Bloomberg Announcer (0:39)
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Tom Keene (1:01)
Kevin War she Clear Just like that it was less than a week ago that Thom Tillis dropped his objections after the DOJ dropped, if I can use that word, or transferred its investigation into Jay Powell from DOJ to the Fed, IG Tillis dropped his blockade and just like that, Warsh as expected, clears committee. The question is when he will see a full confirmation vote, and many expect that to take place on the floor of the Senate by the end of this week. But today it's about the matter at hand and what it's going to mean for Jay Powell his final meeting as chair. And I'm glad to say that we're joined by Stuart Paul, of course, Bloomberg Economics US Economist it's great to see you. Just as I introduce you here, Stuart Red headline on the terminal Brent rises above 1001950 a barrel, the highest since June of 2022. How difficult? Before I ask you about Jay Powell, swan song is this war in Iran, the reaction on the energy markets going to make it for the Fed to ever cut rates?
Stuart Paul (2:11)
Well, so the war in Iran creates two way risk. Of course it almost mechanically boosts inflation acting through gasoline, but it also weighs on real household spending growth. I expect that we're going to end up seeing some dulling real spending, especially in the second quarter. And I given the fact that the Fed cannot do anything to bring additional barrels online, I wouldn't be surprised to see the Fed become a bit more attentive to downside growth risks in the future. I think that even as oil prices stay high, we could see the door open for rate cuts if we end up seeing further deterioration in the labor market. And again, that downside growth materializing.
Tom Keene (2:51)
Really interesting headlines by the way. Crossing, crossing the terminal on Pershing Square. Easy for me to say. We're waiting for the initial trades of this combined IPO. Pershing Square USA now indicated at 3250 to 3750 with an IPO price of $50. Pershing Square Inc. Indicated to open at 19 to 22 dollars each. When this crosses the screen, we'll of course let you know. What's Jay Powell going to say today about the way forward? We don't expect any change in rates. What's the, what's the statement going to read?
