Balance of Power Podcast: Weekly Washington Policy Pulse Episode Date: November 17, 2025
Host: Joe Mathieu (Bloomberg)
Guest/Analyst: Nathan Dean (Senior Policy Analyst, Bloomberg Intelligence)

Episode Overview

This week’s Washington Policy Pulse delivers a rapid, insightful rundown of the most critical developments and upcoming legislative catalysts in DC as the year nears its end. Nathan Dean covers everything from congressional tight timelines, farm aid, government shutdown odds, and the fate of major bills in crypto, defense, marijuana, and banking regulation, with a special focus on the “HallowThankmas” legislative season. Dean blends policy analysis with on-the-ground perspectives, providing actionable intelligence for investors and policy-watchers.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The "HallowThankmas" Crush & Legislative Calendar

• Only 15 legislative days remain before year-end (03:00).
• Dean coins the term "HallowThankmas" (from a shirt at Buc-ee's) to describe the high-pressure window between Halloween and Christmas, when DC scrambles to finish legislative business before lawmakers leave for the holidays.

  "By the second week of December, most of the politicians and most of the policymakers are like, you know what, get me out of town. I don't want to be here."
  — Nathan Dean (04:20)

2. Upcoming House Vote: Jeffrey Epstein Files

• House will vote on releasing the Jeffrey Epstein files, likely passing due to a successful discharge petition (05:15).
• This is expected to dominate headlines, but Dean notes it has no investable impact.
  • Notable shift as President Trump (recently) urged Republicans to support the measure.

3. US Farm Aid Package

• Anticipated $12–13B in USDA-administered farm relief—modeled after 2018–2019 Trump-era payments—will target short-term farmer needs, not address structural issues (06:35).

  "Trade, not aid, because US farmers are struggling due to high crop production costs and low crop prices."
  — Nathan Dean (07:10)

• Aid focuses on Q4 and Q1 crop cycles; mostly for input purchases, not equipment.

4. Government Shutdown: Status and Risks

• Current stopgap funds cover only 3 of 12 appropriations bills through Sept. 2026 (USDA, Congressional Apparatus, Veterans Affairs). Remaining nine (including defense and treasury) funded only through Jan 31, 2026 (09:10).
• Dean assigns a 30–40% chance of a shutdown in February 2026. Key caveat: a White House push for a “rescissions bill” (clawing back spending) could drive shutdown risk.

  "Shutdowns in election years are not good politics... by March or April, policymakers don't want to be in Washington while their opponents are back home campaigning."
  — Nathan Dean (10:40)

  • Senator Thune expected to try packaging remaining appropriations for a vote.

5. Cryptocurrency Legislation Outlook

• Both Senate Banking and Ag Committees have released competing discussion drafts post-shutdown; the House already passed a Clarity Act earlier this year (12:45).
• Given the tight calendar, Dean thinks final crypto bill passage before year-end is unlikely—predicts a 70% chance for passage in 1H 2026 (14:50).

  "The amount of crypto lobbying dollars being thrown at Washington at the moment is almost unheard of... it's going to be very difficult for politicians to say, I don’t want any part of this."
  — Nathan Dean (15:25)

• Specific contention over stablecoin “rewards” loophole—banks want to close it, crypto industry resists. Dean expects status quo (rewards via platforms) will remain.

6. National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA)

• NDAA conference close to agreement (16:30).
• Senate asking $925B in defense spending vs. White House’s $893B (+ $150B from separate bill). Expectation: bipartisan, may move quickly.
• Watch for NDAA “Christmas tree” effect: probability of unrelated legislative priorities (ex. Credit Card Competition Act) being attached.

7. Marijuana: Hemp Loophole Ban & Legalization Prospects

• Senate voted 76–24 to ban hemp-derived product loophole (2018 farm bill)—major blow to $28B hemp industry (18:20).
• Dean interprets this lopsided vote as signaling low support for broad marijuana liberalization.

  "If you have 76 senators that voted to ban these products... most likely [they are] not on board with this idea of loosened up marijuana regulation."
  — Nathan Dean (19:10)

• Legalization/Safe Banking Act: Not likely through 2028.
• Rescheduling: Possible as a politically-timed move from the White House, but not soon due to bureaucratic, agency resistance.

8. Bank Regulation: Regional Banks & Final Leverage Ratio Rule

• Regional bank relief will follow big bank capital relief; industry pushing to raise asset thresholds via indexing to nominal GDP or inflation (20:45).
• If successful, banks like PNC, Capital One could expand assets without tripping enhanced regulation.

  "Investment bank, big bank relief first, regional banks second... I think once all the big bank capital rules are done, so maybe by the tail end of next year, that's when these proposals come out."
  — Nathan Dean (21:30)

Enhanced Supplemental Leverage Ratio (ESLR)

• Rule has moved from Fed to OMB for review, signaling close to finalized (22:05).

  "If it's already at OMB, it means that they have a rule they've essentially blessed."
  — Nathan Dean (22:40)

• Expected finalization: December 2025. Banking industry wants it done by January 1, 2026.

9. International & Geopolitical Watch

• President Trump meeting Saudi Crown Prince: watch for U.S.-Saudi deals on F-35s, tech, AI (23:00).
  • Time: Around 11:30–12:00pm ET.
• US naval activity near Venezuela; potential for headlines if U.S. military action occurs.

10. Other Notable Headlines to Watch

• Supreme Court: AA tariffs, possible $100B refund – market-impactful.
• 50-year Mortgages: Colleagues doubt industry adoption.
• Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac: Bill Ackman to hold Twitter Spaces (Nov 18) on recap and release; possible headline risk.
• Fed Chair Appointment: Treasury Sec. Scott Bessant to recommend a nominee to President Trump by Thanksgiving; confirmation process anticipated to be smooth (25:20).

Memorable Quotes & Moments

• "By the second week of December... get me out of town. I don't want to be here." (Nathan Dean, 04:20)
• "Shutdowns in election years are not good politics. Nobody likes having a shutdown in an election year..." (Nathan Dean, 10:40)
• "The amount of crypto lobbying dollars... is almost unheard of." (Nathan Dean, 15:25)
• "If you have 76 senators that voted to ban these products... that 76 senators most likely are not on board with this idea of loosened up marijuana regulation." (Nathan Dean, 19:10)
• "If it's already at OMB, it means that they have a rule they've essentially blessed." (Nathan Dean, 22:40)

Timestamps for Key Segments

• Opening & Legislative Calendar / "HallowThankmas": 03:00–04:30
• House Vote: Epstein Files: 05:15–06:00
• US Farm Aid Package: 06:35–08:20
• Shutdown Odds & Government Funding: 09:10–11:00
• Cryptocurrency Regulation & Bill Odds: 12:45–16:00
• NDAA / Defense Funding: 16:30–18:00
• Marijuana Regulation & Hemp Ban: 18:20–20:10
• Regional Bank Regulation & ESLR Update: 20:45–22:45
• Geopolitical Events to Watch: 23:00–23:40
• Housing Policy, Fannie/Freddie, Fed Chair Nomination: 24:00–25:35

For further questions or Bloomberg policy analysis, listeners can contact Nathan Dean at ndean@bloomberg.net.