Balance of Power: Weekly Washington Policy Pulse – Iran, Basel III, Stablecoins, Warsh
March 16, 2026 | Host: Joe Mathieu | Guest: Nathan Dean, Bloomberg Intelligence

Episode Overview

This episode delivers an in-depth briefing on the major political and policy developments unfolding in Washington, D.C., with special emphasis on issues impacting financial markets, regulation, and geopolitics. Bloomberg Intelligence senior policy analyst Nathan Dean explores headline topics: escalating tensions with Iran, key banking regulation updates (Basel III), developments in crypto and stablecoin regulations, ongoing Congressional negotiations, and personnel drama at the Federal Reserve. The episode is characterized by direct, policy-focused analysis intended for financial professionals and politically engaged listeners.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Geopolitics: Iran Tensions and White House Strategy (01:39–07:45)

• Strait of Hormuz Crisis:

  • President Trump has called for a “coalition of the willing” to ensure safe passage of tankers through the closed Strait of Hormuz, seeking participation from China, the UK, Japan, South Korea, and Australia.
  • Reaction: International response has been tepid—Japan and Australia cite no immediate plans to participate; Germany has not received a formal request; the UK is polling for a stance.
  • Summit with China: Trump may delay, but not cancel, this month’s planned summit with Xi Jinping: “At times of war, the president is not going to leave US soil,” paraphrasing Press Secretary Caroline Levitt (03:05).
  • Real-time talks: US and China are concurrently negotiating tariffs in Paris.

• Iran Supplemental Defense Bill:

  • Pentagon is reportedly seeking $50 billion in new defense funding; House and Senate Agriculture Committees considering adding $15 billion in farm aid.
  • Bill is not close to Congressional consideration—likely delayed until summer. “Once you get something out there … then the insurance industry for disasters is going to get $20 billion … I’m guessing that this package will probably be somewhere between 100 to 200 billion.” (05:44)

2. Congressional Agendas: Housing & Crypto Legislation (07:45–11:35)

• 21st Century for Road Housing Act:

  • Passed Senate, now goes to a resistant House, which objects to several provisions:
    • Regulatory red tape reduction: Unlikely to spur enough new homes on its own.
    • Central bank digital currency provision: A ban until 2030, with House Republicans pushing for a permanent ban.
    • Institutional homebuying:
      “Disposal language” requires single-family REITs to sell developments within seven years, raising concerns for investors.
  • Next steps: The House may sit on the bill or force a conference committee. Senator Kennedy (LA): “I think the White House is going to have to go over to the House and knock some heads into Pluto.” (09:53)

• Crypto Regulation:

  • Senate Banking Committee preparing to intensify efforts around stablecoin regulation in April.
  • OCC has proposed stablecoin rules exceeding the Genius Act’s requirements; bans agreements (formal or informal) between issuers & third-party platforms offering stablecoin yield/rewards.
    • “The OCC is going to come in there and say, no, you can’t do that … and obviously the crypto industry is not happy.” (10:53)
    • Senate Crypto Clarity Act, if passed, would override OCC action.

3. Financial Regulation: Basel III Endgame (11:35–13:33)

• Coming Thursday: Government proposes “Basel III endgame” and the GSIB (Global Systemically Important Banks) surcharge update.
  • Basel III endgame: Will increase capital requirements for banks, especially on operational and market risk; may decrease credit risk, particularly for mortgages.
  • GSIB surcharge tweak: Decreases requirements for top 6 GSIBs by $32 billion. “It’s a method two tweak ... that’s why it’s a little bit more subdued than what anticipations were earlier this year.” (12:53)
  • Proposals include a 90-day comment period, possible finalization before December holidays.

4. CFTC & Prediction Markets (13:33–15:36)

• CFTC Guidance:
  • New guidance classifies most prediction markets as swaps under the Commodities Exchange Act—directed at operations like Coinbase, CME, Robinhood, Intercontinental Exchange holdings in Polymarket.
  • The advance notice of proposed rulemaking (AMPR) asks for input on separating gambling vs. permissible contracts (e.g., assassination/wartime bets).
  • Timeline: Finalized rule not before mid-2027.
  • Political context: A future Democratic CFTC would have a harder time swiftly reversing these rules. “Think of it as icing on the cake … it’s going to prevent you from getting to the actual cake unless you get [the] icing off.” (15:26)

5. Congressional News: SAVE Act & Voting Law (15:36–16:41)

• SAVE Act:
  • Requires U.S. citizens to verify identity before voting—attempt to federalize state-administered voting procedures.
  • Republican leadership (Senator Thune) lacks 60 votes to overcome a filibuster, but will attempt to pass it with only 50 votes, though ultimate passage remains unlikely.
  • President Trump insists on passage before signing other legislation.
  • “The filibuster is not going away.” (16:32)

6. Federal Reserve & Personnel Drama (16:41–17:15)

• Kevin Warsh Nomination:
  • Senate Banking Committee (Sen. Thom Tillis) continues to block nomination pending unresolved legal tussles involving Fed Chair Jerome Powell subpoenas.
  • “If we get to May, when Chairman Powell has to step down as chairman, not governor, but as chairman, you could see a scenario where you have acting Chair Myra in the interim.” (17:03)

7. Other Policy Developments (17:15–17:33)

• Confirmation hearing for Markwayne Mullin as DHS Secretary upcoming; no new developments on government shutdown risk.
• Illinois primary (March 17): “We may get some indication whether or not a moderate or progressive Democrat has any success.” (17:30)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Iran coalition response:
  “It doesn’t seem that there’s many people chomping at the bit at the moment to send more troops… President Trump will still try to put up that political pressure.” — Nathan Dean (02:59)

• On the supplemental appropriations process:
  “Once you get something out there and you say, ‘Hey, I want $50 billion for the troops. We’re going to get $15 billion for the farmers.’ Well then, the insurance industry for disasters is going to get $20 billion… I’m guessing that this package will be somewhere between 100 to 200 billion. But again, that’s just pure guess at this point.” — Nathan Dean (05:44)

• On Senate–House tension over housing bill:
  “The House is not happy being stifled by the Senate. The Senate has jammed them multiple times, trying to jam them again here.” — Nathan Dean (09:00)

• On CFTC’s rulemaking strategy:
  “Think of it as icing on the cake… It’s going to prevent you from getting to the actual cake unless you slip off the icing. It’s a bad analogy, but you get the idea.” — Nathan Dean (15:26)

Important Timestamps

• 01:39–07:45 – Iran crisis, coalition negotiations, defense bill, US–China talks
• 07:45–11:35 – Housing bill, digital currency, institutional home ownership, crypto regulation update
• 11:35–13:33 – Basel III endgame & GSIB cap requirements explained
• 13:33–15:36 – CFTC prediction markets guidance
• 15:36–16:41 – SAVE Act & Senate procedural updates
• 16:41–17:15 – Federal Reserve personnel and legal wrangling
• 17:15–17:33 – DHS confirmation and Illinois primary preview

Tone and Style

• Direct, insider-focused, policy-wonk language
• Accessible to financial industry listeners, with references for follow-ups and further reading
• Intentional focus on actionable insights and headline risks with a wry sense of humor on Congressional dysfunction

For further details or policy briefings, listeners are encouraged to reach out directly to Nathan Dean or Bloomberg Intelligence.