Balance of Power: Weekly Washington Policy Pulse

Host: Joe Mathieu (Bloomberg)
analyst: Nathan Dean (Bloomberg Intelligence)
Guest: Dwayne Wright (Senior Healthcare Policy Analyst)
Date: November 24, 2025
Main Topics: Obamacare Subsidies Proposal, Bank Leverage Ratio, CFTC Leadership, Executive Order on AI

Episode Overview

This week’s episode of Weekly Washington Policy Pulse on the Balance of Power podcast delivers an in-depth, real-time analysis of the latest policy moves from Capitol Hill and the White House, focusing especially on healthcare reform (Obamacare subsidies), looming changes to big-bank leverage ratios, crypto regulation updates, and an anticipated executive order on artificial intelligence (AI) by President Trump. Host Joe Mathieu and analyst Nathan Dean are joined by Dwayne Wright to dissect policy surprises in what was expected to be a quiet Thanksgiving week.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Washington Legislative Calendar & Upcoming Catalysts (00:47–02:50)

• Nathan Dean outlines the typical December legislative rush: Most policy actions wrap up early in the month as Congress and regulators prepare to adjourn for the holidays.
  • Farm Aid Package: $13B package announcement expected after Thanksgiving.
  • NDAA Delay: Defense spending language now expected December 1, with residual haggling over $32B and relevant AI language.

2. CFTC Leadership and Derivatives Regulation (02:50–04:38)

• Senate Agriculture Committee advanced Mike Selig’s nomination as CFTC Chair; confirmation likely in early December.
• Dean expects little change for swaps/futures regulations:
  • “If you're looking at the CME or the ICE world, really that regulatory framework is going to stick around.” (03:46)
  • Crypto oversight remains the key wildcard, as Selig’s SEC experience is noted.
• “Ultimately, [Selig] is just going to allow the CFTC to continue without much disruption or change.” (04:30)

3. Executive Order on Artificial Intelligence (04:40–05:41)

• President Trump is set to sign an AI executive order at 4pm EST.
  • Bloomberg Intelligence believes efforts to preempt or block state-level AI laws without Congress will likely falter in court.
  • Quote: “[The] executive order most likely will be to say...any state that implements, restricting or constraining artificial intelligence is going to face funding fights...but unless Congress passes a law...such actions will likely falter in court.” (05:16)

4. Banking: Enhanced Supplementary Leverage Ratio (SLR) Finalization (05:42–06:25)

• FDIC & Federal Reserve expected to finalize the new SLR rule at 10am the following day.
• Key Changes:
  • SLR lowered from 5% to ~3.4–4.3% for G-SIBs (Global Systemically Important Banks).
  • Crucially: Treasuries remain in the denominator, contrary to some industry hopes.
  • “The final rule will most likely exclude treasuries from the—I'm sorry, does not exclude treasuries from the denominator. May have just made a big mistake there.” (06:17)

5. Obamacare Subsidies Extension Proposal (Healthcare Focus) (06:30–13:33)

• Guest: Dwayne Wright delivers real-time analysis on the administration’s rumored healthcare proposal.

  • White House to propose:

    • Extension of Obamacare (ACA) subsidies for two years.
    • Cap eligibility for subsidies at under 700% federal poverty level (~$110,000/year).
    • End “Zero Premium” options for lowest-income enrollees, which Republicans assert has led to fraud and rapid enrollment increases at lowest income levels.
    • Expansion of Health Savings Accounts (HSAs), a key Republican priority, offering individuals more personal control and flexibility over healthcare spending.
    • “If you give people more control...it would reduce healthcare utilization...but also just give people more flexibility in how they spend their resources.” (08:34, Dwayne Wright)

  • Democratic Response and Bipartisanship:

    • Many Democrats are already open to capping subsidy eligibility, though the HSA piece remains contentious.
    • “We've seen a handful of Democrats either come out with some income limit...right around 700% of the poverty level.” (09:33)
    • The main concern is loss of the $0 premium, which affects lower-income enrollees.

  • Political Dynamics and Legislative Prospects:

    • Trump’s support likely enough to bring Senate Republicans on board, potentially achieving the 60-vote threshold.
    • Wright highlights the possibility of House passage even if most Republicans oppose, provided Democrats support.
    • If passed, the move nearly eliminates the risk of a government shutdown over this issue:
    • “If the White House bought into that and believed...this would pretty much seal the deal.” (10:54, Wright)
    • “I've always believed that a bill could pass the House. It just wouldn't necessarily have a majority support of the Republican caucus.” (12:17, Wright)

6. Lighter Moment & Podcast Close (13:33–14:24)

• Dean admits losing a shutdown wager:
  • “Full disclosure, I got it wrong and I owed a lot of people. Actually. Five folks came in for Bloomberg Coffees that I had to give because of the shutdown.” (13:41)
• Thanksgiving well-wishes and a light mention of Trump’s turkey pardoning tradition.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Nathan Dean on CFTC and status quo:
  • “The industry has largely just been in the status quo at the moment just because there really hasn't been all that much tinkering with these rules, really hasn't many changes to these rules.” (03:24)
• Dwayne Wright on ACA Subsidy Limit:
  • “Right now...your premiums are capped at 8.5% of your income...as reported, [the proposal would] cap eligibility to those making under 700% of the federal poverty level, which is still roughly $110,000 a year.” (07:22)
• On zero-premium fraud risks:
  • “Many Republicans have said [zero premiums] has led to an increase in fraud. And quite interestingly, that's where we've seen the biggest increase in enrollment.” (08:00)
• On political strategy:
  • “If Trump bought into that and the White House bought into that...this would pretty much seal the deal.” (10:54, Wright)
  • “If he does jump on board and Democrats are there...I would be more optimistic that it does happen. But again, let's see what happens in terms of the details.” (12:17, Wright)
• On government shutdown:
  • “This would pretty much make the likelihood [of a January shutdown], barring something else happening, close to zero.” (12:51, Wright)

Timestamps for Key Segments

• 00:47 – 02:50 Legislative calendar, Farm Aid, NDAA
• 02:50 – 04:38 CFTC leadership update and focus
• 04:40 – 05:41 Executive Order on AI
• 05:42 – 06:25 Enhanced Supplementary Leverage Ratio (SLR) rule
• 06:30 – 13:33 Obamacare subsidies, ACA reform, and political implications
• 13:33 – 14:24 Closing remarks, shutdown odds, holiday banter

Tone & Takeaways

• Tone: Analytical, direct, with a mix of urgency and policy nerd enthusiasm, especially as breaking healthcare news interrupts expectations for a quiet holiday week. A thread of realism about legislative sausage-making and bipartisan horse-trading runs throughout.
• For Listeners:
  • Expect continued status quo in derivatives/crypto regulation amid new CFTC leadership.
  • Significant changes coming in healthcare: Watch for Trump’s formal proposal to extend and recalibrate ACA subsidies — a move aimed at shoring up the center.
  • Bankers should watch for tomorrow's finalized leverage ratio rules.
  • AI policy remains murky; real limits on state action likely require Congressional action, not just executive orders.

This summary offers a tightly-packed policy rundown for Beltway and Wall Street watchers alike, capturing all major developments and real-world implications without fluff or filler.