Balance of Power: Weekly Washington Policy Pulse (Dec. 8, 2025)

Host: Joe Mathieu, Bloomberg
Guest: Nathan Dean, Senior Policy Analyst, Bloomberg Intelligence
Date Aired: December 9, 2025

Episode Overview

In this fast-paced episode, Nathan Dean, Senior Policy Analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence, provides his weekly rundown of high-priority policy developments coming out of Washington, D.C. Topics include new federal farm aid, the fate of Obamacare subsidies, President Trump’s impending AI executive order, a major media merger, NDAA defense updates, Supreme Court scrutiny of international tariffs, and late-breaking crypto regulation news. The conversation is candid, data-driven, and peppered with tips for Bloomberg Intelligence clients and market watchers.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Farm Aid Package: “A Band-Aid on a Bigger Issue”

(01:01–03:00)

• Announcement: USDA is set to release a $12 billion farm aid package, mirroring similar efforts in 2018–2019, with roughly $22,000 per participating farm.
• Core Problem: Aid is seen as a stop-gap for deeper, ongoing structural issues, primarily U.S.-China trade friction impacting soybean purchases.
  • “This package…is a band aid on something that is actually a much more bigger structural issue and that is due to the purchase of Chinese purchases of U.S. soybeans.” — Nathan Dean [01:52]
• Timing and Outlook: The aid is late for the current planting season and most will be spent on Q4 capital expenditures.
• Future Aid: More packages possible in 2026; discussions ongoing in the House Agricultural Committee for up to $50 billion.
• Farm Bill: A “light” version may be used as a vehicle for future support, but bipartisan movement is currently stalled.

2. Obamacare Subsidies Extension: “Long Odds and Skeptical”

(03:00–04:45)

• Senate Vote: Upcoming vote on a three-year subsidy extension expected to fail; GOP is not in favor of further subsidies.
  • “If you ask most of the Republicans on Capitol Hill, they're not in favor of additional subsidies. And we're just going to get into a situation where this expires.” — Nathan Dean [03:52]
• Alternate Plan: Two-year proposal exists but unclear if Republicans will act.
• Executive Direction Lacking: GOP seems to be waiting for White House direction.
• Outlook: Dwayne Wright’s Bloomberg Intelligence view — “long odds and skeptical” for a deal before year-end.

3. Trump’s Executive Order on Artificial Intelligence

(04:45–06:30)

• Announcement: President Trump teased an AI executive order—calling it “one rule to rule them all”—via Truth Social.
• Possible Contents & Legal Risk:
  • Draft hints at DOJ power to sue states with independent AI rules.
  • Analyst Matt Shettenhelm predicts courts would likely strike down such federal overreach.
    • “If the executive order were to be like that, the courts most likely would find an issue with that and find the executive branches overstepping its bounds.” — Nathan Dean summarizing Matt Shettenhelm [05:46]
• Necessity of Congressional Action: Real regulatory clarity will require legislation.
• Policy Debate: A comprehensive federal standard could jumpstart the 2026 AI regulation debate and avoid a “patchwork” of state rules.

4. Netflix–Warner Brothers Merger & Paramount Hostile Bid

(06:30–08:23)

• Merger Details: Netflix–Warner Brothers announced a deal; Paramount launched a hostile takeover bid.
• Antitrust Outlook:
  • Analyst Jennifer Reeve sees numerous regulatory hurdles. Even without White House intervention, DOJ review will take a year, with the full process possibly stretching 18+ months.
    • "Her point is the antitrust process will likely take over a year, and that's if the DOJ challenges the deal in court." — Nathan Dean [07:32]
• Presidential Interest: Trump has indicated interest in reviewing the deal personally.

5. NDAA/Looming Defense Policy Votes

(08:23–09:25)

• NDAA Language: Released the prior night, not especially controversial except for minor China biotech provisions.
• Expectations: Swift passage predicted in the House and Senate.
• Analysis Forthcoming: Wayne Sanders is preparing a detailed note on defense winners and losers.

6. Supreme Court: Trump’s Reciprocal Tariffs

(09:25–10:00)

• Possible Ruling: Supreme Court could rule as soon as this week on the legality of President Trump's reciprocal tariffs (“Liberation Day” tariffs).
• Outcome Odds: Analyst Holly Fromman says there’s a 60% chance the Court upholds lower court rulings against the tariffs.

7. Crypto Regulation: Stablecoins & Clarity Act

(10:00–12:55)

• GENIUS Act Implementation: FDIC set to release a proposal for stablecoin issuer application “this month.”
• Regulatory Framework:
  • Initial proposal will focus on bank/non-bank issuer registration; secondary proposal (expected Q1–Q2 2026) will address prudential standards (capital requirements, safeguards).
  • “Our stablecoin framework…would be up and operating by January 1st of 2027.” — Nathan Dean [11:57]
• CFTC Spot Trading Ruling: Allows more crypto spot trading, benefiting the industry.
• Congressional Action Needed: Full legal clarity requires passage of the Clarity Act or a market structure bill.
• Holiday-Driven Timeline: Regulators are eager to release proposals before year-end.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• "This package... is a band aid on something that is actually a much more bigger structural issue and that is due to the purchase of Chinese, of Chinese purchases of U.S. soybeans." — Nathan Dean [01:52]
• “If you ask most of the Republicans on Capitol Hill, they're not in favor of additional subsidies. And we're just going to get into a situation where this expires.” — Nathan Dean [03:52]
• “The one rule is President Trump said in his True Social post this morning, one rule to ring them all or to rule them all. Sort of sounds like Lord of the Rings…” — Nathan Dean [05:12]
• “Matt [Shettenhelm] essentially said that if the executive order were to be like that, the courts most likely would find an issue with that and find the executive branches overstepping its bounds.” — Nathan Dean [05:46]
• “Her point is the antitrust process will likely take over a year, and that's if the DOJ challenges the deal in court.” — Nathan Dean re: Jennifer Reeve [07:32]
• “Our stablecoin framework… would be up and operating by January 1st of 2027.” — Nathan Dean [11:57]

Important Timestamps

• Farm Aid Package Discussion: [01:01–03:00]
• Obamacare Subsidy Extension & Senate Dynamics: [03:00–04:45]
• Trump AI Executive Order Speculation: [04:45–06:30]
• Netflix-Warner Bros-Paramount Merger Antitrust: [06:30–08:23]
• NDAA & Defense Legislative Update: [08:23–09:25]
• Supreme Court - Tariff Law: [09:25–10:00]
• Crypto Regulation Outlook: [10:00–12:55]

Tone and Takeaway

Nathan Dean’s analysis is conversational yet rigorous, calling out uncertainty and offering actionable insight. The episode stresses headlines to watch—and why they matter for markets, industry stakeholders, and policymakers—without hyperbole. If you missed the news this week, this episode gets you up to speed on legislative bottlenecks, executive ambitions, and regulatory queues shaping 2026 and beyond.