Balance of Power Podcast: Weekly Washington Policy Pulse – October 13, 2025

Hosts: Joe Mathieu & Kailey Leinz
Guest: Nathan Dean (Senior Policy Analyst, Bloomberg Intelligence)
Date: October 13, 2025
Episode Focus: Nathan Dean delivers a deep dive into the policy catalysts and major political-economic events unfolding in Washington, particularly focusing on the ongoing government shutdown, tariffs, financial regulation updates, and sector-specific news impacting banking, fintech, agriculture, and international policy.

Episode Overview

This week’s “Washington Policy Pulse” provides an incisive, up-to-the-minute briefing on the state of U.S. federal policy debates. Nathan Dean discusses the multifaceted drivers and implications behind the ongoing government shutdown, analyzes pressure points in negotiations, dissects emerging developments in U.S.-China tariffs, and highlights pending regulatory actions affecting the financial, tech, and agricultural sectors. The tone is analytical and accessible, with Dean translating inside-the-Beltway nuance for a business-minded audience.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Government Shutdown Dynamics

Timestamps: [00:58]–[04:45]

• Current Status: The shutdown continues, with no clear resolution in sight. President Trump declared over the weekend that military members would still be paid on October 15, removing a key pressure point for quick congressional action.

  • “If President Trump goes ahead and pays the military, that removes a pressure point and honestly, it removes Congress from the situation … doesn’t give Congress much in the way of an incentive to come together and negotiate.” – Nathan Dean [01:50]

• Political Calculus:

  • Recent polling shows little movement. Democrats feel emboldened, as “about two thirds of independents out there blame the Republicans for this,” while Republicans retain strong internal support—about 85–90% of their base. [02:30]
  • “Nothing has really changed. And as a result, this shutdown may last for a while.” – Nathan Dean [03:05]

• Duration Outlook:

  • Prediction markets (Polymarket, etc.) now expect the shutdown could extend to 35 days or more—poised to become the U.S.’s longest.
  • The next notable pressure point is at the end of October, when SNAP (food stamp) benefits risk disruption for 42 million Americans. [04:12]
  • “If we get into a situation where later in the month … this government shutdown hasn’t been resolved, you could see some headline risk associated to those grocery stores.” – Nathan Dean [04:25]

2. Tariffs & U.S.–China Relations

Timestamps: [05:00]–[06:55]

• Presidential Threats: President Trump threatened 100%+ tariffs on Chinese rare earth minerals (potential effect in November), though subsequent comments suggest possible negotiations.

  • Dean urges caution: “Let’s wait for more information before we get excited about this. Because as you’ve seen many, many times in the past, President Trump makes a statement, there’s a headline reaction… then subsequently, President Trump either further negotiates or something’s pulled back.” [05:35]
  • Likely legal basis: Section 232 or 301 tariffs, not IPA. [06:15]

• Immediate Tariffs: New tariffs go live at 12:01 AM the next day targeting furniture and cabinetry:

  • Softwood lumber: 10%
  • Upholstered wood products: 25% (rising to 30% on Jan 1)
  • Kitchen/bath cabinets: 25% (up to 50% on Jan 1)
  • Coverage and impact details with a touch of personal humor: “Which is great, because I have to remodel my kitchen next year.” – Nathan Dean [06:50]

3. Financial Sector, Regulation & Legislation

Timestamps: [07:00]–[08:55]

• Deposit Insurance Reform: Treasury Secretary Scott Besant advocates raising the $250,000 FDIC insurance cap for business transaction accounts to $20 million, with upcoming legislation co-sponsored by Senators Hagerty (R) and Brooks (D).

  • “Who pays the increase in deposit insurance? It’s the big banks. JP Morgan, Bank of America, Citigroup. So let's just keep that in mind.” – Nathan Dean [08:30]

• Bank Merger Watch: Fifth Third–Comerica merger unlikely to face regulatory opposition. Combined assets ($289B) well below the $750B G-SIB threshold.

  • “Not really any issue … Fifth [Third] can easily resolve [branch] issues by changing a couple things.” [08:50]

4. Week Ahead: Events & Market Implications

Timestamps: [09:00]–[10:05]

• IMF/World Bank Week: Expect numerous speeches and policy signals from global leaders and central bankers.

  • Fed Vice Chair Michelle Beaumont to speak twice, including on bank stress testing, with a key proposal still pending.

• DC Fintech Week & Crypto Regulation:

  • Big focus on stablecoins and legislative developments like the GENIUS Act.
  • CFTC chair speculation: Mike Selig (current SEC advisor) rumored as nominee, noted for deep industry knowledge.
  • “I think he actually would be a very effective pick for the crypto sector.” – Nathan Dean [10:00]

5. Agricultural Policy: Farmer Aid Package

Timestamps: [10:10]–[10:55]

• Pending USDA Aid: Treasury Secretary Bessant expected to release $10–13B in farmer support (GOP wants up to $50B). Most will go towards buying operational needs (fertilizer) for Q4 harvesting rather than capital investments. [10:15]
  • “So most of that money will be spent in the fourth quarter, and then by this time next year, we'll be in a situation where probably nothing has really changed.” – Nathan Dean [10:45]

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Shutdown Duration:
  “There's no real pressure point here right now for this week.” – Nathan Dean [03:44]

• On SNAP Benefits as a Catalyst:
  “That's, I think, the next major pressure point… about 42 million Americans rely upon food stamps for their consumer goods purchases.” – Nathan Dean [04:25]

• On Washington’s Legislative Style:
  “If there is going to be a solution, it's going to come from a bipartisan group of senators … ultimately that's where the deal would come from.” – Nathan Dean [03:55]

• On Regulatory Developments & Humor:
  “Kitchen and bath cabinets, which is great, because I have to remodel my kitchen next year, you're looking at 25% tariff today, up to a 50% tariff on January 1st.” – Nathan Dean [06:50]

Important Timestamps

• [00:58] – Start of Nathan Dean’s Policy Breakdown
• [01:50] – Military Pay & Shutdown Pressure Points
• [02:30] – Political Polling on Shutdown
• [04:12] – SNAP Benefits Pressure Point
• [05:35] – Caution on China Tariff Announcements
• [06:50] – Tariffs Hitting Furniture & Cabinet Market
• [08:30] – Deposit Insurance Proposal Insights
• [09:00] – Financial Policy Events (IMF/Fintech)
• [10:10] – Farmer Aid Package Discussion
• [11:01] – Segment Wrap-Up

Summary

Nathan Dean’s segment this week is a thorough, pragmatically delivered pulse-check on DC’s legislative landscape. The government shutdown shows no immediate end, with pressure points delayed by executive maneuvering and partisanship entrenched. Tariffs—both threatened and immediate—are in focus as U.S.–China brinkmanship continues, yet Dean advocates skepticism until policies are actually implemented. Regulatory watchers get a preview of high-stakes banking legislative proposals and notable M&A, while fintech and crypto get their turn with big events and possible regulatory appointments. The agricultural sector awaits new rounds of federal support, albeit with tempered expectations for longer-term impact.
Overall, insiders and market-watchers seeking forward guidance and context on DC’s next moves are well-served by Dean’s unvarnished analysis and timely updates.

Contact for Further Information:
Nathan Dean: ndean@bloomberg.net [11:01]