Balance of Power: Weekly Washington Policy Pulse – October 20th, 2025

Host: Joe Mathieu
Guest/Analyst: Nathan Dean, Senior Policy Analyst, Bloomberg Intelligence
Date Recorded: October 20, 2025
Topics: Federal Government Shutdown, Crypto Regulation, IPO Market, Trade Tariffs, Senate Banking Hearings

Episode Overview

In this installment of the Weekly Washington Policy Pulse, Nathan Dean delivers timely analysis on the major policy topics dominating Washington, D.C. As of October 20th, 2025, the conversation focuses on the ongoing government shutdown, prospects for bipartisan negotiations, updates on crypto legislation and banking, recent shifts in IPO regulation, trade and tariff issues, and notable congressional hearings for the week ahead.

Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. Government Shutdown Stalemate

[01:03–04:46]

• Current Situation: Both Democrats and Republicans are showing little interest in negotiating an end to the government shutdown. Furloughed workers and contractors remain in limbo, with no resolution in sight.
• Polling Data: “Polling data continues to suggest that if you're looking at it from the Democratic perspective, that Republicans are getting a slight edge in terms of being blamed for the shutdown. Republicans are looking at the polling data and they're saying that we're pretty much in a good situation right now. We're sticking to our guns and we have the moral high ground.” – Nathan Dean [01:32]
• Democratic Pressure Points: Moderate Democrats with affected constituents (such as Senators Shaheen, Ossoff, Warner) may eventually seek compromise, but this is unlikely before key dates:
  • October 29th: Next government and military paychecks due.
  • November 1st: Start of ACA (Obamacare) open enrollment and SNAP (food assistance) benefit increases, both threatened by the shutdown.
• Possible Off-Ramps: Economic pain to eligible constituents could push moderate Democrats to negotiate.
• Prediction: No immediate resolution is expected. Betting markets suggest most expect the shutdown to continue into November. “Majority of the folks, over 50%, think this will go into November. So again, we'll see what happens.” – Nathan Dean [03:50]

2. Crypto Legislation at a Standstill

[04:46–07:36]

• Upcoming Meeting: Senator Gillibrand is scheduled to meet with crypto CEOs regarding two major bills—the Clarity Act and the Responsible Financial Innovation Act.
• Partisan Tensions: Distrust and division persist between Senate Republicans and Democrats, making consensus on crypto regulation elusive.
• Banking Sector Concerns:
  • Bank lobbyists worry the bill could overly favor crypto if not aligned with banking security standards.
  • The fight over stablecoin rewards remains unresolved. Platforms have found loopholes allowing them to pay rewards even as direct yield/interest for issuers is restricted.
• Legislative Timeline: “I still think that there's a 70% chance that sometime in the first half of next year you're going to see a broad crypto structure bill pass, but we'll see what happens.” – Nathan Dean [06:15]
• Outlook: Momentum is low as the shutdown drags on, but negotiations will likely resume post-crisis. Banking and crypto industry alignment is crucial.

3. SEC: “Making IPOs Great Again”

[07:36–09:04]

• New Focus: SEC Chairman Paul Atkins is pushing for reforms to revitalize IPOs in the U.S.
• Regulatory Changes Discussed:
  • De-emphasizing quarterly earnings (specifically Q1 & Q3).
  • Additional listing standards to ease companies’ path to public markets.
  • Streamlined disclosure requirements.
• Predicted Impact:
  • Small companies may benefit from eased regulatory burdens.
  • No major IPO volume surge expected.
  • The SEC seeks to balance support for both IPOs and a growing private credit market.
  • “I don't think the SEC is in a position where they're going to pick a winner or a loser here. They're just doing things to actually essentially make sure that both paths are a little bit forward.” – Nathan Dean [08:55]

4. Tariff and Trade Developments

[09:04–11:09]

• Trump's Tariffs: President Trump is expected to announce new tariffs on Colombia, following recent public disputes. Legislative action is also brewing to challenge Trump’s tariffs on Canada and Brazil, with Senator Tim Kaine pushing a resolution.
• Congressional Hurdles:
  • Senate and House need simple majorities, but presidential veto power looms.
  • “Even if you get it past the Senate, will you get it past the House and would the president even sign it? Of course President Trump wouldn't sign it. So you would need a veto proof majority. I don't think it goes there.” – Nathan Dean [10:19]
• China’s Role: Upcoming potential summit between President Trump and President Xi Jinping could yield news on U.S.–China trade, especially concerning agriculture (soybeans) and rare earth minerals. Significant tariff changes are possible but not yet imminent.
• Long-Term View: Trump has floated 100% tariffs as a rhetorical threat, but admits it’s not viable long-term.
• Outlook: Expect closer analysis in the following week as key meetings approach.

5. Congressional Hearings to Watch

[11:09–13:07]

• Senate Banking Committee: Despite the shutdown, two significant hearings are set:
  • Tuesday: Industry and academic experts discuss housing affordability and policy ideas.
  • Thursday: Prudential banking regulators (Fed, FDIC, OCC, NCUA) testify on the future of bank regulation, Basel III implementation, stress testing, and GSIB surcharge changes.
• Regulatory Timelines: Key question is whether new regulations will be finalized by year-end or spill into early 2026.
• What to Listen For: “If they start using language like well start beginning of next year then I think you're going to see the regulators potentially they may not be as far as long as they've once said.” – Nathan Dean [12:44]

Notable Quotes and Memorable Moments

• “Two of your children fighting. You love them anyway, you just want them to go away so you can watch football.” – Nathan Dean, joking about the bank/crypto regulatory dispute [06:40]
• “I think the big question… as we get into the next couple of weeks, it really is what happens with China towards the end of the month, President Trump is meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping potentially in South Korea.” – Nathan Dean [10:58]
• “No matter what the government is shut down, it doesn't mean that we don't have hearings and we don't have votes.” – Nathan Dean [11:09]

Timestamps of Key Segments

• 01:03: Nathan Dean opens with the status of government shutdown
• 04:46: Crypto legislative outlook & banking sector concerns
• 07:36: SEC initiatives for making IPOs more accessible
• 09:04: Update on tariffs—Colombia, Canada, Brazil, and anticipation for China
• 11:09: Upcoming Senate Banking Committee hearings
• 13:07: Episode wrap-up and contact info for further questions

Conclusion

Nathan Dean offered a concise yet deep view into unfolding policy events of October 2025, emphasizing the persistent standstill of the government shutdown, the complex gridlock facing crypto regulation, the SEC’s new IPO priorities, high-stakes maneuvering over tariffs, and the few—but important—Congressional hearings still taking place. His analysis offers business leaders, investors, and policymakers a valuable roadmap for the week ahead amid Washington’s uncertainties.

For more in-depth research or to join live, listeners can contact Nathan Dean at ndean@bloomberg.net.