Balance of Power: Weekly Washington Policy Pulse — Rescheduling, Stablecoins (Dec. 15, 2025)
Podcast: Balance of Power | Host: Bloomberg | Featured Analyst: Nathan Dean
Date: December 15, 2025

Episode Overview

This episode delivers an end-of-year policy rundown from Washington, D.C., focused on what's happening now and what to expect in early 2026. Bloomberg Intelligence Senior Policy Analyst Nathan Dean walks listeners through key debates shaping the legislative agenda—healthcare subsidies, possible government shutdown, defense funding, new regulations on stablecoins, prospects for marijuana rescheduling, farm aid, and priming for a pivotal election year in 2026.

Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. Obamacare (ACA) Subsidies—Legislative Outlook

[02:04 - 04:35]

• Ongoing debate regarding the extension of ACA (Obamacare) subsidies:

  • Democrats push for a 3-year extension.
  • Republican moderates prefer 2 years or redirecting money towards HSAs.
  • No single Republican approach holds a majority.
  • President Trump not actively engaged in ACA negotiations.

• Outcome for 2025:

  • "Ultimately we don’t see there’s going to be a solution found this week. The number one goal for Washington at this point for this week is to get out of Washington and go home for the holidays." (Nathan Dean, 03:46)
  • Most expect the debate to extend into January, past the open enrollment and government funding deadlines.

2. Government Shutdown Risk

[04:36 - 06:00]

• Nine of twelve appropriation bills funded through Jan 31; risk of partial government shutdown remains.
• Shutdown odds at roughly 30%:
  • “We're at a 30% chance of government shutdown because...The Republicans largely got the blame for the shutdown." (Nathan Dean, 05:10)
• Both parties see downsides in a shutdown—Republicans due to recent polling losses, Democrats not wanting to upset current polling momentum.
• Likely outcome: Another short-term spending agreement.

3. National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) Completion

[06:01 - 07:10]

• Senate poised to pass a $900 billion defense bill.
• Minor Senate dispute over Reagan Airport flight rules is not expected to derail final passage.
• Defense industry will gain clarity for 2026 budgeting:
  • "If you're in the defense industry, you are going to get some clarity for 2026 spending." (Nathan Dean, 06:46)
  • Reference to Wayne Sanders’ deep-dive analysis for industry watchers.

4. Crypto Policy—Stablecoin Regulation

[07:11 - 08:10]

• Awaiting the White House's review of a stablecoin proposal via the Office of Information and Regulatory Affairs (OIRA).
• This is the first proposed rule under the Genius Act relating to stablecoin issuer registration (Fed/FDIC).
  • "Not exactly the most exciting proposal out there... If you’re on the legal or compliance side, you’re probably a little bit more excited than if you’re a crypto investor." (Nathan Dean, 07:40)
• Final rule expected soon, possibly before year-end.

5. Research Outlooks Season

[08:11 - 08:38]

• Bloomberg Intelligence releasing industry and macro outlook reports for 2026 in stages through early January.
• Copies available upon request.

6. FCC Hearing — Media Regulation

[08:39 - 09:10]

• FCC Chair Brendan Carr testifies before Senate Commerce; could create headlines, especially given President Trump's criticism of broadcasters.
• Matt Shettenholm tracking developments:
  • "It's the only interesting hearing that's really going on this week." (Nathan Dean, 09:00)

7. Farm Aid—New Relief and Projections for 2026

[09:11 - 10:40]

• President Trump authorized $12 billion in farm aid ($11B for 20 commodities, $1B in reserve).
• Current aid is considered a "band aid, not a solution."
• Corn alone saw $9B in losses ($93 per acre x 98 million acres), indicating more aid likely needed.
• "There's more farm aid coming, so stay tuned. It's most likely going to come via either a light farm bill, maybe in January." (Nathan Dean, 10:17)

8. Cannabis Rescheduling — White House Action and Political Context

[10:41 - 13:43]

• President Trump met cannabis industry CEOs and signaled support for moving marijuana from Schedule I to Schedule III.
  • Reported pushback from Speaker Mike Johnson; CEOs directly rebutted his stance in meeting.
• Investors should note: President cannot unilaterally reschedule, but can direct DOJ/DEA to expedite the process.
• Schedule III rescheduling would lower tax rates for cannabis businesses from 40-45% to about 10%.
• Likelihood of rescheduling estimated at 60-70% by mid-2026, contingent on political advantage:
  • "The president usually doesn’t put out an order saying, 'I want this done', and then 11 months later nothing actually happens." (Nathan Dean, 13:13)
• Investor guidance: Watch for political calculus—will it energize younger voters or risk alienating the Republican base?

9. 2026 — Regulatory and Legislative Outlook

[13:44 - 16:10]

• Congressional time in Washington expected to be limited due to the election cycle:
  • “For every day they spend in Washington in 2026 is a day that their opponent is back home campaigning against them. And Congress largely does not want to be here in election years.” (Nathan Dean, 14:10)
• Democrats' polling advantage (D+14.4) spells trouble for Republicans, who need to win by at least +7 in many House districts.
• Main story for 2026: Regulatory proposals moving forward, limited major legislation (possibility of "Reconciliation 2.0" bill low).
• Watch for potential executive orders on tariffs (Section 232/301) and possible changes to current IPA tariffs, depending on political appetite.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• "The number one goal for Washington at this point for this week is to get out of Washington and go home for the holidays." — Nathan Dean [03:46]
• "We're at a 30% chance of government shutdown because... the Republicans largely got the blame for the shutdown." — Nathan Dean [05:10]
• "Not exactly the most exciting proposal out there... If you’re on the legal or compliance side, you’re probably a little bit more excited than if you’re a crypto investor." — Nathan Dean [07:40]
• "There's more farm aid coming, so stay tuned. It's most likely going to come via either a light farm bill, maybe in January." — Nathan Dean [10:17]
• "The president usually doesn’t put out an order saying, 'I want this done', and then 11 months later nothing actually happens." — Nathan Dean [13:13]
• "For every day they spend in Washington in 2026 is a day that their opponent is back home campaigning against them." — Nathan Dean [14:10]
• “The rule of thumb... is that any Republican member needs to win about plus 7 in order to keep their seat.” — Nathan Dean quoting Henrietta Treys [15:00]

Timestamps for Key Segments

• ACA Subsidies/Obamacare Vote: 02:04 – 04:35
• Government Shutdown Risk: 04:36 – 06:00
• Defense Bill (NDAA): 06:01 – 07:10
• Stablecoin Regulatory Proposal: 07:11 – 08:10
• 2026 Outlooks/Reports: 08:11 – 08:38
• FCC Hearing Media Issues: 08:39 – 09:10
• Farm Aid: 09:11 – 10:40
• Cannabis Rescheduling: 10:41 – 13:43
• Election-Year/Law-Making Outlook: 13:44 – 16:10

Tone & Approach

Nathan Dean brings a direct, analytical, and slightly wry approach, keeping the policy commentary accessible but firmly grounded in Washington realities. Emphasis is on pragmatic probability and the political calculations underpinning policy outcomes.

Summary prepared for listeners who missed the episode or want a reference guide to recent and forthcoming DC policy developments.