Balance of Power – Weekly Washington Policy Pulse: September 22, 2025

Host: Joe Mathieu (Bloomberg)
Guest Analyst: Nathan Dean (Bloomberg Intelligence Senior Policy Analyst)
Special Guest: Tamlin Basin (IT & Policy Analyst, London Bureau)

Episode Overview

This episode delivers a timely briefing on the latest U.S. policy developments, focusing on President Trump’s executive order to drastically increase H1B visa fees, the brewing congressional standoff over a potential government shutdown, updates on the TikTok deal, and new signals from regulators on the financial sector. Nathan Dean and guest Tamlin Basin dissect the practical policy outcomes, economic implications, and emerging political dynamics in Washington.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Trump's H1B Visa Executive Order

(Main section: 01:02–05:58)

• Summary: President Trump issued an executive order raising the application cost for H1B visas to $100,000, sparking confusion and immediate concern across the technology and IT sectors, especially given the order’s initial ambiguity regarding effective dates.

• Immediate Impact: Confusion at airports (e.g., an Emirates flight incident in San Francisco), and uncertainty for current H1B holders about their status.

• Clarification: Over the weekend, administration clarified—change applies only to next year’s applications.

• Background: H1B visas are vital for supplementing U.S. talent in IT, financial services, and tech industries, heavily used by firms like Infosys, Tata Consultancy, Accenture, and Cognizant to place skilled engineers and tech specialists onsite with U.S. clients.

• Business Impact: The $100k fee is “impractical” for IT services firms operating on slim margins. Likely responses: exit the H1B program or pass costs to customers, especially in finance and healthcare.

  Quote (Tamlin Basin, 03:41):
  “This $100,000 fee… really makes it an impractical way forward. This is a fairly low margin business and they simply cannot continue on this. So they’re going to entirely pivot away from the H1B program or… pass those costs through to their end user clients.”

• Sector Differences:

  • IT Service Firms: Are already pulling back due to increased scrutiny and costs—less reliant on H1B.
  • Big Tech (Amazon, Google, Meta, Microsoft): Have increased their H1B use, can likely absorb extra costs thanks to wider margins.

  Quote (Tamlin Basin, 05:21):
  “The difference I think here is the margins are a lot wider in the tech space. So they may not love that $100,000 per application fee, but they certainly can stomach that if they need to.”

2. TikTok U.S. Ownership Deal

(Segment: 05:58–07:06)

• Summary: Ongoing negotiations on TikTok’s U.S. operations; President Trump’s floated deal would put 80% ownership with U.S. interests, 20% with ByteDance.
• Anticipated Developments: White House meeting scheduled on the day of recording—possible news imminent, but details remain unclear until finalized.

3. United Nations General Assembly in New York

(Segment: 07:06–07:38)

• Summary: Expect a quiet week in Congress due to the UN General Assembly in New York; world leaders, including President Trump, are set to address.
• Note: Bloomberg Economics covering the event; President Trump’s speech notable.

4. Regulatory Watch: Financial Stability Oversight Council (FSOC) Guidance

(Segment: 07:38–08:56)

• Background: FSOC met recently to assess guidance on “non-bank asset managers” (e.g., BlackRock, large alternative managers).
• Policy Shifts:
  • Trump 1.0: Activity-based systemic risk criteria (focus on specific activities, not entities).
  • Biden: Shifted to looking at the entity level (“systemically important” institutions).
  • Trump 2.0 (now): Returning to activity-based guidance, reducing chances of entity-level designations, and thus capital requirements, for large non-bank asset managers.

5. Government Shutdown Prospects

(Segment: 08:56–12:33)

• Current State: ~8 days before a potential shutdown; House has passed a stopgap “CR” (continuing resolution) to keep government open until November 20 at current funding levels.

• Shutdown Politics: Senate is on recess for Rosh Hashanah—set to return September 29; leadership on both sides engaged in blame games rather than actual negotiation.

• Odds & Analysis:

  • Nathan Dean raises his government shutdown odds to 40% (up from 30% last week), much lower than prediction markets.
  • Shutdown could affect up to 750,000 federal workers (first missed paycheck around November 15 if impasse persists).
  • Some Democrats may see value in fighting now—better politically than just before 2026 elections.

  Quote (Nathan Dean, 11:50):
  “They need to show their base that they’re fighting… it’s better to shut the government down now in September of 2025 than it is to shut the government down in 2026 before the November elections.”

• Likely Scenario: Senate may gather enough bipartisan support to accept the House CR, pushing showdown to right before Thanksgiving.

Notable Quotes & Moments

• Tamlin Basin on H1B Fee Impact:
  (03:41) “This $100,000 fee… makes it an impractical way forward. This is a fairly low margin business and they simply cannot continue on this.”

• On Tech Sector Absorbing Costs:
  (05:21) “The difference I think here is the margins are a lot wider in the tech space. So they may not love that $100,000 per application fee, but they certainly can stomach that if they need to.”

• Nathan Dean on Congressional Dysfunction:
  (09:34) “They’re really just talking past each other… There was a story last week where both sides were saying the other side just needed to talk to them about setting up a meeting as they were walking past each other talking to reporters.”

• Dean on Shutdown Politics:
  (11:50) “It’s better to shut the government down now… than it is to shut the government down in 2026 before the November elections.”

Timestamps for Major Segments

• Intro & H1B Visa Executive Order – 01:02–05:58
• Impacts for Amazon, Meta, and Microsoft – 04:43–05:58
• TikTok U.S. Ownership Deal – 05:58–07:06
• UN General Assembly Preview – 07:06–07:38
• FSOC Regulatory Guidance Shift – 07:38–08:56
• Government Shutdown Watch & Analysis – 08:56–12:33

Tone & Style

The analysis is brisk, methodical, and steeped in real-world impacts, with Nathan Dean’s dry wit and granular detail clearly aimed at a policy-savvy audience. Tamlin Basin provides measured, data-driven insights on tech and immigration policy, while Nathan’s commentary is candid and occasionally laced with self-deprecating humor.

Conclusion

This episode offers a sharp, up-to-the-minute survey of Washington’s most pressing policy issues—in particular, the far-reaching consequences of a tenfold hike in H1B visa fees, ongoing high-stakes maneuvers over the federal budget, and shifts in regulatory posture for large financial actors. With the threat of a shutdown looming and global attention on the UN, listeners are left with a sense of a capital in flux and high uncertainty, but also equipped with clear-eyed analysis of what matters most in the days ahead.