Weekly Washington Policy Pulse: September 22, 2025

Summary

Balance of Power – Weekly Washington Policy Pulse: September 22, 2025

Host: Joe Mathieu (Bloomberg)
Guest Analyst: Nathan Dean (Bloomberg Intelligence Senior Policy Analyst)
Special Guest: Tamlin Basin (IT & Policy Analyst, London Bureau)

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Episode Overview

This episode delivers a timely briefing on the latest U.S. policy developments, focusing on President Trump’s executive order to drastically increase H1B visa fees, the brewing congressional standoff over a potential government shutdown, updates on the TikTok deal, and new signals from regulators on the financial sector. Nathan Dean and guest Tamlin Basin dissect the practical policy outcomes, economic implications, and emerging political dynamics in Washington.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Trump's H1B Visa Executive Order

(Main section: 01:02–05:58)

• Summary: President Trump issued an executive order raising the application cost for H1B visas to $100,000, sparking confusion and immediate concern across the technology and IT sectors, especially given the order’s initial ambiguity regarding effective dates.

• Immediate Impact: Confusion at airports (e.g., an Emirates flight incident in San Francisco), and uncertainty for current H1B holders about their status.

• Clarification: Over the weekend, administration clarified—change applies only to next year’s applications.

• Background: H1B visas are vital for supplementing U.S. talent in IT, financial services, and tech industries, heavily used by firms like Infosys, Tata Consultancy, Accenture, and Cognizant to place skilled engineers and tech specialists onsite with U.S. clients.

• Business Impact: The $100k fee is “impractical” for IT services firms operating on slim margins. Likely responses: exit the H1B program or pass costs to customers, especially in finance and healthcare.

  Quote (Tamlin Basin, 03:41):
  “This $100,000 fee… really makes it an impractical way forward. This is a fairly low margin business and they simply cannot continue on this. So they’re going to entirely pivot away from the H1B program or… pass those costs through to their end user clients.”

• Sector Differences:

  • IT Service Firms: Are already pulling back due to increased scrutiny and costs—less reliant on H1B.
  • Big Tech (Amazon, Google, Meta, Microsoft): Have increased their H1B use, can likely absorb extra costs thanks to wider margins.

  Quote (Tamlin Basin, 05:21):
  “The difference I think here is the margins are a lot wider in the tech space. So they may not love that $100,000 per application fee, but they certainly can stomach that if they need to.”

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2. TikTok U.S. Ownership Deal

(Segment: 05:58–07:06)

• Summary: Ongoing negotiations on TikTok’s U.S. operations; President Trump’s floated deal would put 80% ownership with U.S. interests, 20% with ByteDance.
• Anticipated Developments: White House meeting scheduled on the day of recording—possible news imminent, but details remain unclear until finalized.

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3. United Nations General Assembly in New York

(Segment: 07:06–07:38)

• Summary: Expect a quiet week in Congress due to the UN General Assembly in New York; world leaders, including President Trump, are set to address.
• Note: Bloomberg Economics covering the event; President Trump’s speech notable.

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4. Regulatory Watch: Financial Stability Oversight Council (FSOC) Guidance

(Segment: 07:38–08:56)

• Background: FSOC met recently to assess guidance on “non-bank asset managers” (e.g., BlackRock, large alternative managers).
• Policy Shifts:
  • Trump 1.0: Activity-based systemic risk criteria (focus on specific activities, not entities).
  • Biden: Shifted to looking at the entity level (“systemically important” institutions).
  • Trump 2.0 (now): Returning to activity-based guidance, reducing chances of entity-level designations, and thus capital requirements, for large non-bank asset managers.

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5. Government Shutdown Prospects

(Segment: 08:56–12:33)

• Current State: ~8 days before a potential shutdown; House has passed a stopgap “CR” (continuing resolution) to keep government open until November 20 at current funding levels.

• Shutdown Politics: Senate is on recess for Rosh Hashanah—set to return September 29; leadership on both sides engaged in blame games rather than actual negotiation.

• Odds & Analysis:

  • Nathan Dean raises his government shutdown odds to 40% (up from 30% last week), much lower than prediction markets.
  • Shutdown could affect up to 750,000 federal workers (first missed paycheck around November 15 if impasse persists).
  • Some Democrats may see value in fighting now—better politically than just before 2026 elections.

  Quote (Nathan Dean, 11:50):
  “They need to show their base that they’re fighting… it’s better to shut the government down now in September of 2025 than it is to shut the government down in 2026 before the November elections.”

• Likely Scenario: Senate may gather enough bipartisan support to accept the House CR, pushing showdown to right before Thanksgiving.

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Notable Quotes & Moments

• Tamlin Basin on H1B Fee Impact:
  (03:41) “This $100,000 fee… makes it an impractical way forward. This is a fairly low margin business and they simply cannot continue on this.”

• On Tech Sector Absorbing Costs:
  (05:21) “The difference I think here is the margins are a lot wider in the tech space. So they may not love that $100,000 per application fee, but they certainly can stomach that if they need to.”

• Nathan Dean on Congressional Dysfunction:
  (09:34) “They’re really just talking past each other… There was a story last week where both sides were saying the other side just needed to talk to them about setting up a meeting as they were walking past each other talking to reporters.”

• Dean on Shutdown Politics:
  (11:50) “It’s better to shut the government down now… than it is to shut the government down in 2026 before the November elections.”

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Timestamps for Major Segments

• Intro & H1B Visa Executive Order – 01:02–05:58
• Impacts for Amazon, Meta, and Microsoft – 04:43–05:58
• TikTok U.S. Ownership Deal – 05:58–07:06
• UN General Assembly Preview – 07:06–07:38
• FSOC Regulatory Guidance Shift – 07:38–08:56
• Government Shutdown Watch & Analysis – 08:56–12:33

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Tone & Style

The analysis is brisk, methodical, and steeped in real-world impacts, with Nathan Dean’s dry wit and granular detail clearly aimed at a policy-savvy audience. Tamlin Basin provides measured, data-driven insights on tech and immigration policy, while Nathan’s commentary is candid and occasionally laced with self-deprecating humor.

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Conclusion

This episode offers a sharp, up-to-the-minute survey of Washington’s most pressing policy issues—in particular, the far-reaching consequences of a tenfold hike in H1B visa fees, ongoing high-stakes maneuvers over the federal budget, and shifts in regulatory posture for large financial actors. With the threat of a shutdown looming and global attention on the UN, listeners are left with a sense of a capital in flux and high uncertainty, but also equipped with clear-eyed analysis of what matters most in the days ahead.

Transcript

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[C]

This is your weekly Washington Policy Pulse on the Balance of Power podcast. I'm Joe Matthew. Every Monday, Bloomberg Intelligence, senior policy analyst and friend of the show, Nathan Dean shares his weekly call on upcoming catalysts in the nation's capital. Listen for the most recent and relevant policy research from our team at Bloomberg Intelligence. Now with today's installment, here's Nathan Dean.

[D]

Good morning and good afternoon, everybody. Welcome to the Washington Policy Pulse. My name is Nathan Dean. I'm a senior policy analyst with Bloomberg Intelligence here in the Washington, D.C. bureau. Joining us today is Tamlin Basin from London. He is going to be talking about the H1B visa program. He actually put out a note at 2:11 Eastern Time this morning, but since he's based in London, I think it's more appropriate for him to talk about that. Just say is is that we want to say thank you. Those of you who are coming to us via the Balance of Power podcast certainly always welcome your opinions and your thoughts as well. So let's go ahead and get started. I want to talk to Tamlin first and then we'll let him get back to his day. So Tamlin, can you just tell us so Friday night, President Trump puts out an executive order announcing that the new cost, if you will, for an H1B visa program is now $100,000. You know, for example, I was watching social media and I saw there was an Emirates flight that was supposed to go from San Francisco to DU Dubai. And as the news was breaking, they had already closed the doors to the Emirates flight and enough people stood up and said we're not leaving that they actually allowed the plane to go back to the gate and offload these individuals. So can you just tell us what is the executive order that President Trump put out and more importantly, what is the impact for the IT and the technology firms that you're covering? Because I can imagine this is a fairly big deal.

[E]

Yeah, sure. First of all, thanks for having me, Nathan. So the order that came out Friday and sort of the flight you talked about, so it landed with Quite a bit of chaos, uncertainty. It was supposed to go into effect this weekend, but a lot of uncertainty of does that mean existing H1B holders are impacted by this? So really the immediate pushback was just for a little bit of clarity. And that did come over the weekend where the Trump administration said this is going to apply for next year's applications. So just to back up little bit about what H1B visas are, these are a skilled immigration visa, which has largely since the early 90s, been used by the technology sector. And it's used really to supplement the labor pool with respect to a lot of these ICT jobs. So a lot of engineers, software engineers, coders, data scientists are using these. They're coming over, they're being sponsored by a large multinational firm. They're working in the US for the IT services sector. They're often doing this because the IT service firm like Infosys, like Tata Consultancy, even some of the US listed ones like Accenture and Cognizant, are using the H1B program in order to attract talent and then have those individuals really sitting with the end user client, whether that means a financial services firm, whether that means a healthcare firm, what have you. It's really important to have some onshore delivery to sort of supplement that outsourcing model, which really is based on impairment structure, with much cheaper offshore delivery of people based sort of in India, in Eastern Europe and Latin America. What this $100,000 fee does, especially for these IT services firms, is it really makes it an impractical way forward. This is a fairly low margin business and they simply cannot continue on this. Sorry. PHONE RINGING they simply cannot shoulder this fee. So they're going to entirely pivot away from the H1B program or they're going to look to pass those costs through to their end user clients. And again, many of these are in the financial services world, many of these in health care. So I think those are the discussions that are going to be taking place for the next few weeks.

[D]

So can you talk about the impact on like Amazon, Meta and Microsoft? Because in your note you say that there are firms like Cognizant that have pulled back, but Amazon, Meta and Microsoft have actually increased their usage of H1B visas. So what do you think the impact to them is?

[E]

Sure. And the reason that these firms pulled back was sort of under Trump one, there was already pressure on this program. This is an issue that really does fracture the Republican field with you had during the campaign, people like Elon Musk and the tech sector who really are supportive of the H1B visa program, but you have others who are more anti immigration and want to see those jobs go to the US So the IT services sector has sort of made a cocky decision to be less reliant on that. On the flip side, you have these hyperscalers, you have Amazon, Google, Meta, who are needing more and more software talent. So they've been relying more and more. And I think in 2021, the top nine tech firms actually outpaced the top nine services firms. The difference I think here is the margins are a lot wider in the tech space. So they may not love that $100,000 per application fee, but they certainly can stomach that if they need to. As opposed to the service sector, we're talking much thinner margins.

[D]

Great. Well, thank you very much for your time. Really appreciate it and talk soon. So other things that we wanted to talk about this week is expect more news related to the TikTok deal that President Trump was floating last week. You know, under this deal at least, the framework that's been reported is the United States or the United States entities would own 80% of the deal and 20% would be under ByteDance. There is going to be a meeting at the White House later today about this and again, we're recording this on September 22, so potentially anticipate some news about what that deal will actually look like. Again, it's one of those things where we don't really know what the deal is until it's signed. But again, expect some news on that. It's going to be also a fairly quiet week in Washington from the congressional perspective because we have the United Nations General Assembly. My friends over at Bloomberg Economics who just sit a couple rows behind me are going to be covering that. Just remember, a lot of speeches generally, I think it starts with Brazil. Every time world leaders I think are given around 15 minutes, you know, some leaders will just take as many hours as they can. So also President Trump is set to address the UN later this week. So that's something to keep an eye on. And then the last thing I want to talk about before we get into the shutdown is just some things that we wrote about in terms of the Financial Stability Oversight Council. So if you're in the non bank asset management space, so think of one of the big alternative asset managers or maybe somebody like BlackRock, the financial stability Oversight Council had their meeting just a few weeks ago. And while you don't really get much good, much good readouts, you don't get a really good readout of what happens. At the FSOC meeting, they did say that they're looking at guidance for non bank asset managers. So this is, if you go back all the way to the creation of Dodd Frank, this is the idea that a non bank institution could be deemed systemically important. And if you get systemically important status, it means you potentially could get hit with capital requirements. Now back in the day, they started with like MetLife, Prudential, GE Capital and so forth like that. And for a variety of reasons, there are no non bank SIFI's today. Now, under the Biden administration, let me up. Under the Trump 1.0 administration, they put out guidance that essentially said we're not going to look at the entity level, but rather we're going to look at activities based level. Under the Biden administration, they changed the guidance to say, no, we're actually going to go back and start looking at the entity level. Well, now that the Trump administration is back, we're going to go back to this guidance of going back to the activities based level. So, you know, if you're looking at one of these alternative asset managers, and we've always said that this is a low chance of happening, but again, if you're looking at those alternative asset managers, you have somewhat more of a clarity that none of them are going to be hit with any type of bank like capital requirements anytime soon. Now the last thing I want to talk about is a government shutdown because we are approximately eight days away from the government shutting down and Congress isn't here. This week the house passed a CR essentially keeping the government open until November 20th. And not all of them were thrilled with this, but they did pass this. This would keep the government open until November 20th, keeping everything at fiscal 25, fiscal year 2025 levels. And then they left town, left. And Speaker Johnson even said, you know what, don't even come back until October. They're gone until the shutdown debate is resolved. Now the Senate is out for Rosh Hashanah this week. They do not come back until September 29th. It's always feasible that they could come back earlier. But now we're in this stage of the shutdown where both sides are essentially saying the same thing, but they're really just talking past each other. Senator Schumer says he wants a meeting with Majority Leader Senator Thune. Senator Thune said that he wants a meeting with Senator Schumer, or more so like Senator Schumer can call him. In fact, there was a story last week where both sides were saying that the other side Just needed to talk to them about setting up a meeting as they were walking past each other talking to reporters. And one of the reporters even said, well, he's right there. Do you want to just go talk to him? And they're like, well, he can come talk to me. Look, they got to get it out of their system. But the reason why I still think we're at a 40% chance of a shutdown, remember last week I was at 30, I've gone up to 40. And that is because of the Jimmy Kimmel saga. And also I would just say is that I do think that there's a potential for a handful of Dems to come through on the Senate side and say, you know what, now's not the time to have a shutdown. Let's go to November 20th and let's accept this seven week continuing resolution. I may be out of consensus on it, certainly am. Compared to Polymarket, Polymarket said a 70% chance of government shutdown. I would note that they say shut down this year. They don't say shut down September 30, but the political rhetoric is there. So I think what's going to happen is this, is that I think that the Senate will come back. They'll eventually get these Democratic senators to come on board, at least seven or eight of them, and they'll pass the kick the can and we'll fight this again right before Thanksgiving because, and I've said this before, the director of the omb, Russ Vote, is the one that ultimately decides who is essential and who is not essential. They're the ones who put out the guidance. And as a result, we could get in a situation where Russ vote says 85% of the government's not essential or 85% of the government is essential. By law, they cannot pay government workers. And so if you're looking at this from an economic perspective, around 750,000 government workers that would be deemed, if you go based off of past experiences and stuff that potentially could miss out on government paychecks. They're paid on a bimonthly schedule, so it would be actually 15 days. Their first paycheck is most likely going to be November 15th. So if you're looking at this from an economic perspective, keep that in mind. But last thing I want to leave you with is I was talking with a Democratic aide the other day and I said tell me why it's a good thing to shut the government down. And they actually had a fairly compelling case. The case was, is that they need to show their base that they're fighting that they need to show that they're taking on President Trump. And because the approval ratings aren't that all that good for the Democratic Party right now, they're not actually going to be harmed all that much. And it's better to shut the government down now in September of 2025 than it is to shut the government down in 2026 before the November elections. Because this is when this has happened in the past, when, for example, the Tea Party or the House Freedom Caucus shut the government down back in, I think it was like 2013 or, you know, they certainly came back and this wasn't harmed by them one bit. But again, I don't think it really is going to be. I still made a 40% chance of a shutdown. So anyway, I apologize. We went about a minute or two over this week. Want to say thank you very much for attending. We really appreciate it. Again, I don't think you're going to see much going on from the Washington space, but again, we'll talk soon and always take care.

[C]

Our thanks to Nathan Dean, Bloomberg Intelligence Senior Policy Analyst, bringing you the latest installment of his weekly Washington Policy Pulse. For more from BI or to join this call live each week you can email [e-mail] that's ndeanloomberg.net and come back to the podcast later today for the latest edition of Balance of Power.

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