Balance of Power – Weekly Washington Policy Pulse: September 29, 2025

Host: Joe Mathieu (Bloomberg Correspondent)
Guest/Analyst: Nathan Dean (Senior Policy Analyst, Bloomberg Intelligence)
Date: September 29, 2025

Overview

This episode features Nathan Dean’s expert analysis and predictions for the upcoming week in U.S. federal policy, focusing heavily on the imminent threat of a government shutdown and its potential outcomes. The episode also covers President Trump's recent moves at the United Nations, developments in agricultural policy, the current state of cryptocurrency regulation, updates in bank capital regulation, key defense meetings, and headlines regarding proposed new tariffs.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Looming U.S. Government Shutdown

• Shutdown Probability and Stakes
  • As of September 29, Nathan maintains a 40% chance of a government shutdown, though he notes the situation is increasingly uncertain as the deadline nears ([01:08]).
  • "Last Friday I was at a 40% chance of a shutdown and where I am this morning is a 40% chance of a shutdown. But I may be wrong on this one and that’s my tongue in cheek way of saying… the odds of a shutdown are increasing." – Nathan Dean ([01:08])
• Partisan Dynamics
  • Republicans have offered a “clean CR” (continuing resolution)—a seven-week extension to keep the government funded through November 20th. Traditionally, the party offering the clean CR maintains political leverage.
  • Democrats want to be seen fighting President Trump and may be aiming for an extension of ACA (Affordable Care Act) subsidies due to expire soon ([01:49]).
• Critical Meeting Scheduled
  • President Trump to meet with Republican and House leadership at 3:00pm ET on Sept. 29. Nathan expects little positive outcome: “I think President Trump’s going to make a statement that the Democrats are going to cause a shutdown. I think the Democrats are gonna make a statement that President Trump is ultimately not negotiating. And I think this is anticipated." ([02:38])
• Senate Negotiations as the Deciding Factor
  • The status of talks between Senator Thune (Republican) and Senator Schumer (Democrat) the following morning is key: if there is communication, a one-week CR may be possible; otherwise, a shutdown is likely ([03:24]).
• Contingency Plans and Economic Fallout
  • Federal agencies are preparing and releasing contingency plans to define essential vs. non-essential workers ([04:02]).
  • The fate of market data releases such as the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ jobs number is uncertain if a shutdown occurs ([04:22]).
  • Market impact is expected to remain minimal, but broader economic effects may grow with the duration of the shutdown, particularly as government worker paychecks are delayed ([06:22]).
  • "Every government shutdown in the past, Congress has retroactively paid those workers. Contractors who get furloughed are not. But for the government workers… they're retroactively paid. Again, we're not sure if that’s going to happen in this scenario." – Nathan Dean ([06:59])
• Potential Local Political Leveraging
  • OMB Director Russ Vought is suggesting large-scale layoffs, which may motivate DC-area senators (notably from Virginia and Maryland) to avoid a shutdown due to local constituent impact ([05:16]).

2. President Trump at the United Nations

• President Trump’s speech at the UN drew intrigue for not explicitly mentioning China—a notable omission ([08:06]).
• Key analyst Adam Farrer (Bloomberg Economics) highlighted that Trump may preview future policy moves at the upcoming South Korea Asia Summit and questioned the strength behind Trump's Ukraine support statement ([08:23]).
• "I was curious about this speech… Adam’s key points was that it was kind of interesting that he didn’t mention China in this speech." – Nathan Dean ([08:05])

3. Agricultural Policy & Farmer Aid

• Secretary of Agriculture and President Trump both hint strongly at new rounds of farmer aid, to be funded with tariff revenue—similar to approaches used in Trump’s first administration ([09:03]).
• "There’s this general anticipation here in Washington that you’re going to see another round of farmer aid." ([09:19])
• The “skinny farm bill” proposal is stalled, with no significant work ongoing due to shutdown distractions ([09:37]).

4. Cryptocurrency Regulation Updates

• The Senate Banking Committee missed its self-imposed deadline to mark up the Responsible Financial Innovation Act, which aligns with expectations ([10:04]).
• "This is the security side of crypto, not the commodity side." – Nathan Dean ([10:17])
• Nathan anticipates this may actually help the legislation’s prospects, as synchronizing timelines with the Senate Agriculture Committee could create a stronger, unified approach ([10:24]).
• Upcoming SEC and CFTC roundtable with top industry executives (CME’s Terry Duffy, NASDAQ CEO, etc.) to discuss regulatory harmonization and to mitigate jurisdictional turf battles between commissions ([10:39]).
• "This meeting could potentially stave off… jurisdiction grabbing fights later this year." ([11:06])

5. Bank Capital & Stress Testing Proposals

• A new Federal Reserve proposal for more robust bank stress testing is expected soon (by September 30) ([11:22]).
• Additional revisions to the G-SIB surcharge and the Basel III endgame timeline discussed—now expected late this year or early next ([11:38]).
• "Governor Bowman, Vice Chair Bowman… pushed Basel III timeline from… early next year to potentially the end of this year, early next year." ([11:47])

6. Defense & International Relations Updates

• Department of Defense hosts a major global leadership event, described as a “pep rally” to motivate U.S. and allied armed forces. The meeting is to be recorded and shared throughout the military ([12:10]).
• President Trump is also set for a meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, with headlines anticipated ([12:46]).
• No in-depth analysis on the defense or Netanyahu meeting from Nathan, but notes Bloomberg coverage for further reference.

7. New Trump Tariff Proposals

• Movies: Trump proposes a 100% tariff on foreign-made movies, reviving an idea first floated in May.
  • "My first thought, because my wife loves Hallmark movies and they're pretty much made in Vancouver is okay, does that mean there's no more Hallmark movies? But this isn't new… Holly Fromm actually looked at it at the time and she essentially said weak legal grounds for a tariff of this nature." – Nathan Dean ([13:02])
• Furniture: Trump proposes tariffs on countries not buying U.S. furniture; Nathan clarifies this likely means tariffs on imported furniture, which already exist ([13:18]).
  • "I think this is one of those posts where it’s sort of just like I think he meant something else and it just didn’t come out that way. But again, we’ll see." ([13:24])

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Nathan's tongue-in-cheek forecasting:
  “I may be wrong on this one and that's my tongue in cheek way of saying that look, things are getting tight and the odds of a shutdown are increasing.” ([01:11])

• On Trump–leadership meeting:
  “I don't anticipate much positive news coming out of that meeting. For one thing, I think President Trump’s going to make a statement that the Democrats are going to cause a shutdown. I think the Democrats are gonna make a statement that President Trump is ultimately not negotiating.” ([02:38])

• On Hallmark tariffs:
  "My wife loves Hallmark movies and they're pretty much made in Vancouver—does that mean no more Hallmark movies?" ([13:03])

Timestamps for Important Segments

• Government Shutdown Odds & Dynamics: 01:03–07:05
• UN General Assembly/Trump Speech Analysis: 08:00–09:00
• Farmer Aid & Farm Bill Update: 09:03–09:45
• Crypto Regulatory Developments: 10:04–11:15
• Bank Capital & Stress Testing: 11:22–12:07
• Defense/International Meetings: 12:10–12:55
• Trump Tariff Headlines: 13:00–13:24

Flow Summary

Nathan Dean provides a brisk, no-nonsense rundown of the policy issues at the forefront in D.C. this week, emphasizing the unpredictability and high stakes of the government funding showdown. He moves fluently between Congressional politics, the implications of presidential moves on the world stage, legislative developments in agriculture and fintech, regulatory maneuverings in banking, and headline-grabbing but legally questionable tariff proposals. The tone is seasoned, wry, and rooted in both policy nuance and pragmatic expectations of how Washington works.

Conclusion

This episode is essential listening for anyone tracking the current volatility in U.S. federal policy and its ripple effects in markets, regulation, and international affairs. Nathan Dean’s insights position listeners to anticipate not just the decisions being made, but the forces and motivations behind them.

Contact
Listeners interested in more detailed notes or live calls with Nathan Dean are encouraged to reach out directly, as policy developments are highly fluid this week.