Balance of Power Podcast – Weekly Washington Policy Pulse: Shutdown Update, Supreme Court Tariff Preview (Nov 3, 2025)

Date: November 3, 2025
Host: Joe Mathieu (Bloomberg)
Guest/Analyst: Nathan Dean (Bloomberg Intelligence Senior Policy Analyst)

Episode Overview

This episode of the Weekly Washington Policy Pulse segment explores the latest developments in U.S. government policy, with a focus on the looming government shutdown, upcoming Supreme Court hearings on Trump administration tariffs, and key election updates. Nathan Dean provides insight into policy catalysts, legal battles, and the economic consequences affecting sectors from retail to agriculture.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Upcoming Elections & Political Outlook

States and Races of Note

• Elections in Virginia, New Jersey, and New York City happening tomorrow.
• Virginia: Democratic governor candidate holds a 12-point lead.
• New Jersey: Race is much tighter; Democrat ahead by 4-5 points, within margin of error.
• California: Redistricting proposition being closely monitored.
• Texas: Several minor ballot items with local impact.

Analysis & Context

• "As much as we love to see people say that this is going to be a bellwether for 2026... politics are local. Politics is also national." — Nathan Dean [02:00]
• Suggests caution in over-interpreting results as predictors of the 2026 midterms.

Presidential Involvement

• Trump is already commenting on and likely to further weigh in regarding the New York City mayoral election.

2. Supreme Court Tariff Case Preview

Background on Reciprocal Tariffs

• Oral arguments at the Supreme Court scheduled for Wednesday regarding Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs.
• Tariffs were implemented under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), though tariffs are not explicitly mentioned in IEEPA.

Legal Journey

• U.S. Trade Court: Found Trump’s tariffs unlawful.
• Appeals Court: Found tariffs legal.
• Supreme Court: Bloomberg Intelligence’s Holly Frome estimates a 60% chance the tariffs will be struck down as unlawful.

“My colleague Holly Frome has a 60% chance the Supreme Court is going to find those tariffs to be unlawful.” — Nathan Dean [04:00]

Potential Implications

• If ruled unlawful, Treasury Secretary Scott Besson says $80–$100 billion in tariffs will be refunded — an operational nightmare dubbed “refund chaos.”
• Refunds would occur by check, not wire, leading to lengthy and disorderly payouts.
• Uncertainty for industries exporting to or importing from affected countries.
• Even a negative ruling leaves President Trump other tools (e.g., Section 232, Section 301) to impose tariffs.

Congressional Response

• Senate passed resolutions to overturn tariffs on Canada and Brazil (with bipartisan support), but it's symbolic; the House will not consider them.

3. SNAP Benefits (Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program)

Current Status & Economic Stakes

• SNAP funding lapsed as of November 1st.
• Major retailers’ exposure:
  • Walmart: 25% of revenue tied to SNAP
  • Albertsons: 6%
  • Kroger: 8%
• $8 billion in monthly SNAP revenue at stake.

Legal and Policy Developments

• A lawsuit forced the White House to act on SNAP reallocation.
• Court gave the administration until today (Nov 3) for full reallocation or until Wednesday for a partial solution.
• Treasury Secretary indicates partial refunding likely by Wednesday (~Nov 5).

“From an economic perspective... this isn’t one of those situations where the lapse in money just means the money is not going to be spent. It just means the money is going to be spent a little bit later in the month.” — Nathan Dean [07:28]

Market Impact

• Minimal long-term equity effect unless SNAP remains unfunded for the whole month.

4. Agriculture: Farmer Bailouts & China Soybean Deal

• U.S.-China deal for soybean purchases announced last week; seen as positive, but insufficient for struggling U.S. farmers.
• Anticipation of a major farmer bailout post-shutdown — ranging from $13B (default estimate) to $50B (some House Ag Committee calls).
• Expected to provide only temporary support, primarily for Q4 agriculture spending.

“[The] soybean purchases that China has agreed to do, it’s great, but it’s not that great … anticipating a significant farmer bailout coming at the end of this government shutdown.” — Nathan Dean [09:00]

5. Federal Reserve & Bank Capital Stress Testing

Regulatory Update

• Fed’s new stress testing proposal offers transparency by releasing 2026 scenarios in advance.
• Move designed to help risk, compliance, and legal officers plan for regulatory reviews.
• Negligible effect for investors or for capital requirements; only minor, indirect impacts on buffer calculations.

“If you work in risk, compliance, or legal, you’re probably really excited about this. If you’re on the investor side … probably doesn’t excite you all that much…” — Nathan Dean [10:35]

6. Government Shutdown: Update & Endgame Scenarios

Optimism for Reopening

• Bipartisan “chit chats” among rank-and-file senators are progressing appropriation bills (e.g., NDAA).
• Multiple pressing factors may prompt a resolution:
  • SNAP funding delays
  • Air traffic controller shortages (notably delaying senators’ own flights)
  • Impact on holiday travel
  • ACA open enrollment with rising healthcare premiums
  • Results of tomorrow’s state elections

“There is some optimism that the government shutdown could end later this week.” — Nathan Dean [11:55]

Travel Snarls as a Catalyst

• Air traffic disruptions affected senators trying to fly home; cited as a key motivator for legislative urgency.

“DCA had a ground stop on Friday when a lot of senators were trying to fly home… especially majority leaders. Thune, I think, was stuck at Reagan airport for three hours.” — Nathan Dean [12:55]

Timing Scenarios

• Most likely: Resolution by the end of this week or just before Thanksgiving.
• Congress wants to avoid high-profile holiday travel disruptions and is eager to start a planned 10-day recess.

Filibuster Debate

• Trump increasing pressure to end the budget filibuster; most GOP senators remain opposed.
• No changes expected unless the shutdown extends into December, which could significantly ratchet up political pressure.

“The filibuster is not going away right now, but if the shutdown goes into December, that pressure is going to ramp up tremendously.” — Nathan Dean [14:30]

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “Politics are local. Politics is also national. There’s a lot of things going into this.” — Nathan Dean [02:00]
• “It’s called 'refund chaos' because the United States does not have the ability to just turn on an electric send wires… It has to be done by check. It’s going to be very messy.” — Nathan Dean [05:10]
• “It just means the money is going to be spent a little bit later in the month.” — Nathan Dean, on SNAP funding delays [07:45]
• “[On farmer bailout:] Most of that is going to go to 4Q spend. It’s not going to be a long-term solution.” — Nathan Dean [09:50]
• “Air traffic controller situation is getting worse and that is weighing on Congress people’s minds… especially when they’re stuck at Reagan airport.” [13:00]
• “If the government shutdown goes into December, then the pressure [to end the filibuster] is going to ramp up tremendously.” [14:30]

Timestamps for Key Segments

• [01:11] Introduction & Episode Roadmap (Nathan Dean)
• [02:00] State Elections Overview
• [03:40] Supreme Court Tariff Case Background & Analysis
• [07:00] SNAP Benefits Update & Market Effects
• [09:00] Agriculture: China Soybean Deal & Bailout Scenarios
• [10:35] Fed Stress Testing Transparency Proposal
• [11:55] Shutdown Update: Negotiation Status & Optimism
• [12:55] Air Traffic Controllers and Shutdown Pressure
• [13:30] Congress Travel Disruptions & Policy Timing
• [14:10] Filibuster Pressure if Shutdown Drags On

Conclusion

This episode delivers a concise rundown of the week’s most pressing U.S. policy issues, including a critical Supreme Court tariff hearing, the status of major benefit programs and agriculture, the prospects for ending the government shutdown, and the political calculations driving congressional action. Nathan Dean’s now-standard blend of policy detail and pithy, practical analysis makes this a valuable listen (and read) for anyone tracking U.S. policy impacts on markets and the broader economy.