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This is your weekly Washington Policy Pulse on the Balance of Power podcast. I'm Joe Matthew. Every Monday, Bloomberg Intelligence Senior Policy Analyst and friend of the show, Nathan Dean shares his weekly call on upcoming catalysts in the nation's capital. Listen for the most recent and relevant policy research from our team at Bloomberg Intelligence. Now with today's installment, here's Nathan Dean.
Nathan Dean
Good morning and good afternoon everybody. My name is Nathan Dean. I'm a Senior Policy Analyst with Bloomberg Intelligence. Welcome to the Washington Policy Pulse. Thanks again for all those of you who have joined us on our Zoom call and thank you. Excuse me. Thank you. For those of you who are joining via the Balance of Power podcast, we always welcome your listening and your readership and your support. So we got a lot of stuff going on today this week. A lot of stuff happened this weekend. But the first thing I want to do is bring in our Senior Litigation Analyst Elliot Stein to talk about the news that we just saw last night that Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell posted a two minute video in which he said that the DOJ was investigating the Federal Reserve over his testimony to Congress last year in regards to the renovations that's been happening over at the Federal Reserve and also the insinuation that potentially Powell could be under criminal indictment. And or is this just an ongoing pressure campaign from the White House when it comes to lowering interest rates? So Elliot, let's bring you in and could you just talk to us about what happened, what the note that you put out in the terminal says, and what do you think is going to happen going forward?
Elliot Stein
Yeah. Thanks, Nathan. And hi, everybody. Yeah, so last evening, in the middle of the great weekend of NFL football games, we got news reports that the Justice Department, out of its Washington, D.C. office, had sent issued subpoenas to the Federal Reserve related to Chairman Powell's testimony to Congress in June concerning renovations of the Federal Reserve building. Shortly thereafter, Chair Powell himself put out a video that essentially confirmed that the subpoenas had been issued and also included his thoughts about sort of what precipitated those subpoenas. And his point was, you know, that you have to frame this in the overall context. The president essentially disagreeing with Chair Powell's views and policies towards interest rates over the months or maybe even years. So, you know, let me just make three points. The first is that, you know, this really, as Chair Powell alluded to in his comments, is really should be seen as part of President Trump's efforts, ongoing efforts to control the Federal Reserve Board. But as we know from the Lisa Cook case, for example, in order to remove a Federal Reserve Board governor, the president needs some sort of cause. And the president has essentially conceded that mere disagreement over interest rate policy would not be sufficient to establish that cause. So he needs something more. And in this case, it seems that they're trying to accuse Chair Powell of lying to Congress when he testified there in June about perceived cost overruns of renovations of the Federal Reserve building. The second point I want to make is that this probe is still in its early stages. This is just a subpoena. There's no certainty yet of an indictment, much less of a conviction for an indictment. A grand jury would have to approve that. If that happens, then the case would go to trial, and again, a jury would have to convict Chair Powell. I think it's going to be very difficult for the Justice Department to establish that Chair Powell intended to mislead and or lie to Congress in his testimony in June. It seemed like the bulk of that, or at least the focus of that testimony that is part of the subpoena concerns Chair Powell's explanations for why some of the details of the renovation are different from what were in planning documents that were sent to the National Capital Planning Commission, which is one of the agencies that oversees the renovation. But those explanations don't seem like they would rise to the level of a federal crime if there were any discrepancies. It seems like it'd be a matter of semantics or totally suitable explanations based on modest changes that the Federal Reserve Board made to the renovation. And those have been supported by an FAQ that the Federal Reserve issued on its website after Chair Powell's testimony, further supporting his testimony and the explanations that he gave. The third and last point I want to make is that you should think about the unintended consequences of this investigation. For one, it could bolster Lisa Cook's case in the Supreme Court. As probably most of you know, that case is set to be argued next week. We think Lisa Cook is going to win. The Supreme Court has hinted in a few other hearings that it views the Federal Reserve as sort of separate from other agencies in that it should be independent from the President's complete and unfettered control. And so the Supreme Court is likely attuned to headlines. And, and with these headlines about an investigation of Chair Powell, if they're already inclined to preserve federal independence, this could just further entrench them. In that view, I would also say that to the extent Chair Powell was considering leaving in May after his term as chair ends, this may motivate him to stay on after his term as chair ends, because his term as governor or doesn't end until early 2028. And so this may, you know, this may give him even more concern about the Fed's independence and may give him a reason to stay on after his term as chair ends. And then I would also just note Senator Thom Tillis comments last night where he said, you know, that this move by the Justice Department calls into question the independence of the Justice Department much more than it does the independence of the Federal Reserve. And Tillis also said that he would be reluctant to confirm any nominee for Fed governor or Fed chair until this investigation is resolved. So this may actually hold up President Trump's efforts to get a new Fed chair in place. So I put out a note this morning. If you have trouble finding it, feel free to email me. My email is eastdein26bloomberg.net thanks, Nathan.
Nathan Dean
Great. Thank you. And, you know, we just got one of the client questions of what do you expect to happen to Myron Spot when it expires at the end of January? And, you know, this is sort of interesting because Senator Tiller's remark, you know, he sits on the Senate Banking Committee, and the Republicans have that committee 13 to 11. So obviously, if Tiller says that he's not going to support this, you know, that effectively blocks committee. Now, the Senate does have the ability to bypass the committee. They don't do it very often. And it's not supposed to be for high profile positions like the Federal Reserve Chairman. So it'd be very unusual for the Senate to say, look, we're just going to bypass the committee and move forward because of one Republican senator saying he's not going to do this. So, you know, it would be one of those things where it's going to be really interesting because if this continues and Senator Tillis holds to his word, you know, we could get to a point where, you know, Jerome Powell remains a little bit longer as chair. And like Elliot mentioned, you know, the, the assumption has always been in Washington is that Powell would step down from the governor position. That takes him through 2028. But for all the talk of a shadow chair, it'd be kind of interesting that if Jerome Powell were to stick around, you know, maybe the shadow chair goes in the other direction. I'm just throwing that out as a, as just a potential unintended consequences. So can the president appoint an acting Fed chairman? So if Myron stays, Elliot, I don't think the. But I'll defer that to you.
Elliot Stein
Yeah, I think what would happen in that case is that Myron would stay on. But no, I don't think he could appoint an acting chair.
Nathan Dean
Yeah. And just let's also remember is that like Elliot's pointed out before, you know, we're talking about the Federal Reserve Board, we're not talking about the fomc. The FOMC has a different, you know, has a different voting establishment for its chair position. So, you know, there, it's certainly interesting story to be following and I think we're going to get a lot more information in the coming days. It's also important to note that the president yesterday on Air Force One, when he was returning to Washington D.C. said he had no knowledge of this. And Bloomberg News is reporting that FHFA Director William Polte is one of the instigators behind this, but he was on Bloomberg Television this morning and he said that he had no knowledge of this whatsoever. So again, really interesting things to see what happened here. And I would just say let's stay tuned and as we get more questions on this, definitely reach out to Elliot and I, you know, on the terminal. We can happily answer anything that you may have.
Elliot Stein
Just one thing, and you alluded to this. The FOMC does have a separate process for electing a chair and it's that the Federal Reserve Board governors themselves vote for the chair of the fomc. So even if President Trump tried to name an acting chair of the Federal Reserve Board Board. The FOMC could still then name Chair Powell if he's still there as chair of the fomc.
Nathan Dean
Interesting times say to least so. Okay, so let's move off the Federal Reserve. Let's move to just some more of the other stuff that's happening. We had a very busy weekend. President Trump put out two social media posts that I wanted to talk about. One was he said, and I'm paraphrasing because I don't have these in front of me, let's talk about this credit card interest ban. So President Trump said that he would like or not like he said effective January 20, he's instituting a 10% cap on all credit card interest for one year. Now, I've looked at it multiple ways. I've tried to figure out how to think outside the box. And I just don't see the President having the authority to do this. A lot of this is governed by state laws. And there have been efforts amongst a couple of senators, Senator Bernie Sanders, the independent from Vermont, and Senator Josh Hawley, the Republican from Missouri, to actually institute this via legislation. And that legislation went nowhere. You know, we had some numbers already out on the terminal on this. If you took just a dropped from the 21% industry average down to 10%, you're looking at around 121 billion in terms of exposure for loss revenues for these credit card issuers. And again, you're also talking about potentially of tightening up credit loss of the loss of these reward programs. Where I'm going with this is that President Trump said this on Friday night. The credit card banks are going to be, obviously they're reacting to this in the news. A lot of these banks are down at the moment. We just don't see any way of this being implemented in 20. I have a 30% chance on this legislation moving forward. The reason being is that, and this is similar to the next story that I'm going to tell in terms of this housing social media post that Trump put out is that President Trump is moving more towards affordability because of the eyes of the election in 2026. And when you get moving to the affordability on issues, you get this bipartisan warmth. For example, in this case, you have Bernie Sanders teamed up with Josh Hawley. You have other Democrats who probably would be over the moon. Elizabeth Warren, for example, would be over the MO in terms of capping credit card interest rates at 10%. But there is a silent Republican out there. Think of these Republicans who are close to Wall street, who are not going to be on board with this. And the idea here is, is that if you have this credit card ban, interest coming from the president, and it needs to be driven by legislation, the Senate Banking Committee and the House Financial Services Committee in particular are going to want to have their hands all over this. They don't want it driven by Senator Hawley and Senator Sanders. They want it driven by the committees. And French Hill, the chairman of the House Financial Services Committee, I don't think is on board with this. Tim Scott, the chairman of the Senate Banking Committee, probably not on board with this because the banks certainly aren't on board with this. And when the banks are going to be pushing their allies on Capitol Hill who are already in the middle of a fight on crypto, for example, gets really messy. And as a result, I think that essentially the powers that be essentially say, look, we're going to slow this process down, but again, let's see what happens on January 20th. The bully pulpit from the White House is very real. And so I would anticipate you're going to see more on this, but I just don't see how the president can actually implement it. So let's talk about the housing social media post that he also said last week. Now this was where President Trump said that he's going to work with Congress to codify legislation that would ban corporations from purchasing the institutional purchases of single family homes. Now, there are really two angles here. You can look at single family REITs and you can look at Blackstone. Now we have a big report that came out this morning on the terminal, but essentially the story is this, is that when President Trump goes to Davos in a week and a half, I think it's a week and a half when President Trump goes to Davos, he said he's going to release more information related to this and then he's going to ask Congress to codify this. And there is already legislation out there on this, but it's coming from Democrats. Senator Jackie Rosen from Nevada, for example, already has a piece of legislation that would do something similar. Senator Bernie Moreno from Pennsylvania, Republican, has said that he would actually put this into law. So again, President Trump puts this idea out here. It's got the support of some Democrats, it's got the support of some Republicans. But again, there's this silent Republican out there that's not going to be on board with this idea. Bloomberg Television had a great interview with the former chairman of the House Financial Services Committee, Patrick McHenry, last week. And in that Patrick McHenry said, Look, if I'm on, if I was on Capitol Hill, I'm not going to be on board with this. But at the very least, the House Financial Services Committee is going to run a wrap the issue, grab it back and say, we're going to study it, we're going to have a hearing. And when you have a hearing plus studying, plus an issue that really may not get 60 votes, plus an election year, I just don't see it really going anywhere. I think President Trump is going to continue the bully pulpit because, look, affordability is an issue that he's really trying to push before the midterms, but I don't think it's going to happen. But in terms of the companies that we looked at these single family REITs like Invitation Homes and AMH, there's real risk here because if this were to brew into something, this is really speaks to their business model. But when you look at Blackstone or the private equity firms in particular, they are a lot less exposed to single family retail than when you look at it as part of their assets under management. So there was a lot of sentiment, I think, last week, going against Blackstone in particular, that may not been warranted. So, again, keep that in mind. We're going to talk about cryptocurrency. Just briefly. We have two planned markups. I think one of them is actually going to happen. The other one is a little bit, I still think, uncertain. We have a Senate Banking Committee and a Senate Ag Committee markup. Now, we've talked about cryptocurrency in the past. I'm not going to rehash this. If you're listening to us on the podcast, go back to last week. That's why I talked about this in greater detail. But the story about the, about these markups is this. Right now I'm at a 70% chance of passage of a crypto bill in the first half of this year if we get through these markups. And people are talking great. And there's lots of saying, yep, we had some great movement, some great negotiations, still have some work to do. But hey, let's, let's figure this out. I'm going to stay at 70% if we come out of these markups and they are partisan, meaning the Democrats are not on board with this. And look, I don't think the Democrats are on board with this going into it. But if the Democrats come out here with pretty harsh language about what's going on, I'm going to be lowering my chances because right now, this fight is over. Yield. When it comes to stablecoins. This was part of the Genius Act. And you've heard statements from the banks saying, we're not going to support this if we don't get what we want. You've heard statements from crypto saying, we're not going to support this if we don't got what we want. We even saw the White House last week come out and say, look, folks need to stop complaining about this. And again, I'm paraphrasing because you tell us that the current situation is untenable. There's a lot of emotion going on with this. And so I think these markups are going to be really interesting to watch. So call me on Friday if you want my take on this. I'm going to be putting my takeout after these markups. So if you want to talk about crypto, Friday is probably the best day to talk about it real quickly. On the shutdown and the calendar again, we're at a 30% chance of a shutdown. I don't think that's changing, even with some of the stuff that's going on with the Fed chair or anything like that at the moment. Congress is actually working on. Congress is just working on a mini omnibus at the moment for Commerce, Justice, Energy and Interior. The idea here is that they could pass that, get it through the rest of the year, but more likely than not, they're going to kick the can into March. Think about it this way. The calendar is the most important thing to think about this week. The Senate is really focused on this war powers authorization related to Venezuela. Now, look, I'm not paying attention to that just because it really doesn't have any investable angle. It's a resolution Trump can. Trump can veto resolutions all you want. I'm not really paying attention to it, but it's going to eat up the Senate calendar next week. We have Martin Luther King on Monday, the Senate is out for recess. Then they come back and boom, it's right before January 31st. It's very unlikely they're going to come into an agreement before January 31st. They know this. And so don't be surprised if they kick the can because, you know, it's just one of those things. There's really no strategy on either side at the moment. And so I think they come back after the recess, they say, right, we need more time. They do a continuing resolution that gets us to February or March, and then they have the shutdown threat if it happens at that point as well. The last thing I'm going to leave you with and I apologize that we went a few minutes over, but I think there's just so much happening is that we did not see the Iiba case come out on Friday. This is President Trump's tariffs. The next choice, the next chance of this is Wednesday at 10am Eastern. Just from a logistics standpoint, we're going to be on standby at 10am we at Bloomberg Intelligence are going to put together a webinar, I think and Elliot can correct me if I'm wrong in the chat. I think it's for Friday. If it were to happen also in the chat, just FYI, Elliot put in a little bit more and more point about, about POTUS and Jerome Powell. But when it comes to these tariffs, there are two questions that I'm asking myself. When we read that decision. If the decision comes out and says that these tariffs are unlawful, we are still at a 60% prediction. Markets are actually a little bit higher. They're just north of 70% at the moment. But if SCOTUS comes out and says that these tariffs are unlawful, the two questions you should be asking yourself is one, are there going to be refunds involved or not? Now on January 2, the Customs and Border Patrol put out a very small interim final rule into the Federal Register. I didn't notice it until last week that they actually confirmed that these refunds, if they were to come out or refunds in general would be sent via electronic funds transfer. If you've heard me on this call before, you said it'd be paper check. The paper check is gone. They can do this via electronic funds transfer. Now the second question, so the first question is is the Supreme Court going to allow refunds or not? We're going to have to look at that and see because that a lot of companies are dictating, including myself. I went to Finland earlier this year, bought some Ethela and I have like some import taxes. I want to get back. I still have that receipt. So I'm going to be watching. But that's the question, refunds or not. Then the next question is outside of the Supreme Court and we really have to look at the White House. The second question is this. President Trump has other ways to do tariffs. Section 231, section 301, section 100, all these investigations. Now they can come out and say we are going to do an investigation that moment and we are going to kick start this and we're going to put these tariffs back on. But investigations take time and those investigations, if they end or when they end, would most likely be two or three months before the midterms. And again, I'm not convinced that President Trump would immediately come back and say, look, we're going to plate these tariffs back on that are extremely unpopular with the American populace two to three months before an election. So again, something to keep in mind, I don't have a view on that either way in terms of like he's going to do it or not, but that's like my Spidey sense is tingling on that. So again, that's the question that we're going to have to see on the tariffs. So I apologize that we went 20 minutes but though but I do want to say thank you for sticking around. We're going to have a really busy week this week. So again, feel free to reach out to us on the terminal or call us, email us. Thank you very much for listening. We really appreciate it. Hope you have a great week and we'll talk soon.
Podcast Host / Narrator
Our thanks to Nathan Dean, Bloomberg Intelligence Senior Policy Analyst, bringing you the latest installment of his weekly Washington Policy Pulse. For more from BI or to join this call live each week you can email nathan@ndeanloomberg.net that's n d e a n bloomberg.net and come back to the podcast later today for the latest edition of Balance of Power Power.
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Episode Date: January 12, 2026
Host: Joe Mathieu (Bloomberg)
Main Guest: Nathan Dean (Bloomberg Intelligence Senior Policy Analyst)
Notable Guest: Elliot Stein (Senior Litigation Analyst, Bloomberg Intelligence)
This episode dives into a turbulent week in Washington policy, covering high-profile developments and upcoming catalysts from Capitol Hill and the White House. Topics include the DOJ’s investigation into Fed Chair Jerome Powell, President Trump’s surprise social-media-driven policy declarations (credit card interest cap and housing reforms), significant movement on crypto legislation, and quick updates on the federal shutdown risk and the pending Trump tariffs court case. The discussion is lively, data-driven, and marked by political sharpness and Washington insider insights.
[01:40–11:54]
[11:54–16:54]
[16:54–19:40]
[19:40–20:48]
[20:48–21:50]
[21:50–22:47]
Stay tuned for rapid developments—Washington’s volatility shows no signs of slowing this year.