Weekly Washington Policy Pulse: Venezuela, Congress Returns (Jan. 5, 2026)

Summary

Balance of Power — Weekly Washington Policy Pulse: Venezuela, Congress Returns

Host: Joe Mathieu
Guest Analyst: Nathan Dean (Bloomberg Intelligence), with Wayne Sanders (Senior Defense Analyst)
Date: January 5, 2026
Episode Focus: Venezuela, U.S. policy and defense ramifications, and the congressional outlook for 2026

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Episode Overview

This episode centers on breaking developments in Venezuela—specifically, the U.S.-led extraction and arrest of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro—and the implications for energy markets, defense policy, and the U.S. Congress’s return for the new year. Host Joe Mathieu introduces Bloomberg Intelligence’s Nathan Dean, who is joined by defense analyst Wayne Sanders for insight on the military operation, global energy and legislative impacts, and expectations for Congress in early 2026.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Venezuela: U.S. Arrests Nicolás Maduro

(02:00–08:24)

• Bloomberg Analysis:

  • The recent U.S. military operation in Venezuela and the extraction of President Nicolás Maduro has broad implications—both for energy markets and geopolitics.
  • Energy Impact: Venezuelan oil returning would challenge Canadian oil and affect OPEC.
    • "Bloomberg Intelligence has been putting out notes on the energy impacts. Things like how Venezuelan oil, if it were to come on the market, could be a detriment to Canadian oil, the industrial impact, the OPEC impact." — Nathan Dean (02:29)
  • Scenarios for U.S.–Venezuela Policy: Three possible outcomes:
    • Favorable democratic transition with U.S. support
    • Transactional approach under the Trump administration
    • Worst case scenario: chaos as rival factions vie for control (03:00)

• Political Response:

  • Congress traditionally objects to presidential overreach in such actions, but major pushback is not expected this time.
    • "Generally speaking … Congress always gets a little upset that they weren’t notified in advance ... But again, I don’t think you’re gonna see much of a political pushback." — Nathan Dean (03:48)
  • Both parties distracted or focused on other narratives, with only a few expected critics.

2. Defense Analysis: Underlying Messages and Industry Impact

Wayne Sanders’ Report (04:05–08:24)

• Operation Details:

  • The U.S. executed a rapid, precise extraction of Maduro—showcasing military might as a global message.
  • "It was pretty much just a three hour extraction of an indicted individual … when you look at how precise the US did this, I think this is also a strategic message to a lot of folks as well." — Wayne Sanders (04:19)

• Military Hardware and Strategy:

  • Large-scale naval and air deployment:
    • Ford-class carriers, destroyers, amphibs (Huntington Ingalls, General Dynamics)
    • 150 aircraft—B-1 bombers, F-35s, F-22s, helicopters, electronic warfare, and offensive cyber capabilities
    • Demonstrates joint force capability and U.S. industrial muscle

• Implications for Defense Industry:

  • Positive outlook for precision munitions (benefiting RTX, Lockheed)
  • Shipbuilding receives renewed focus; no diversion from Indo-Pacific commitments
  • "You're really going to see a lot of the boost for precision munitions … you're still going to see a lot for shipbuilding … trying to fix the maritime industrial base inside the United States." — Wayne Sanders (05:11)

• Comparison with Other Scenarios:

  • Operations in Cuba or Colombia unlikely, as those lack the legal justification of an existing indictment.

3. Markets, Military, and What Could Come Next

Nathan Dean Q&A with Wayne Sanders (06:02–08:24)

• Dean asks if this signals a longer defense/military engagement or a one-off event.
• "It's very important for the administration to stress that FBI agents were on the ground and were the ones that actually took him as opposed to a military operation." — Nathan Dean (06:27)
• Sanders discusses "indicators and warnings" for future involvement in the region; suggests significant military buildup would be a sign of more to come, but current differences between Venezuela and other nearby nations make similar operations unlikely.

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U.S. Congressional Outlook: 2026 Session

(08:24–14:40)

• Congress Returns to Washington:

  • Senate in session; House returns the following day.

• Key Policy Issues:

  • Obamacare Subsidies:

    • Enhanced subsidies expired; new legislation unlikely despite some moderate Republican concerns.
    • "It’s very unlikely you’re going to see Congress come together and actually create a deal to extend these subsidies … for the subsidy advocates, it doesn’t seem like that’s going to go anywhere." — Nathan Dean (09:52)

  • Government Shutdown Risks:

    • Next deadline: January 31; most appropriations still pending.
    • Dean sees only a 30% risk of shutdown, expects a short-term continuing resolution.
    • "I don’t think it’s going to happen. I think I’m at a 30% and I actually think that’s a little high at the moment." (10:33)
    • Democrats focus on affordability narrative; Republicans prefer to avoid blame after previous shutdowns.

  • Crypto Regulation:

    • Bipartisan "Market Structure Clarity Act": Dean assigns a 70% chance of passage if action is taken by mid-February.
    • "Every day that we go forward into 2026 and substantial progress on this crypto bill hasn’t been made, my odds are going to decrease." (12:18)

  • Reconciliation and Tariffs:

    • Potential for a new reconciliation bill in 2026 (health care, tariffs, defense) but lacks votes and momentum.
    • Supreme Court’s pending decision could strike down Trump-era tariffs; 60% chance of being ruled unlawful, per Bloomberg’s legal analysts.

  • Federal Reserve Chair Announcement:

    • President Trump has indicated a new Fed Chair announcement is forthcoming in January, so market watchers should stay alert for “out of the blue” headlines.

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Congressional Pushback:
  "Congress always just doesn't like it when presidents take steps like this without notifying them first. But again, I don't think you're gonna see much of a political pushback from most either."
  — Nathan Dean (03:45)

• On Military Demonstration:
  "You were able to see a lot of the might of the US Military when it's actually being put together into this type of joint operation."
  — Wayne Sanders (04:58)

• On Energy and Defense Link:
  "I think this is also a strategic message to a lot of folks as well … highlighting the need to strengthen domestic shipbuilding capacity, which I think has been another one of the key pieces in there."
  — Wayne Sanders (04:30)

• On Likelihood of Government Shutdown:
  "I don’t think it’s going to happen. I think I’m at a 30% and I actually think that’s a little high at the moment."
  — Nathan Dean (10:34)

• On Crypto Legislation:
  "Right now I'm at 70% chance, but I'm slowly becoming out of consensus on that because again, more and more folks are saying maybe not."
  — Nathan Dean (12:41)

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Timestamps for Important Segments

• 02:00 — Opening of policy pulse/Bloomberg analysis on Venezuela
• 04:05 — Wayne Sanders: Defense analysis of Venezuela operation
• 06:27 — Admin justification and future risk in region
• 08:24 — Transition to U.S. Congress: subsidies, shutdowns
• 10:34 — Shutdown risk assessment
• 12:18 — Crypto legislation outlook
• 13:40 — Reconciliation and Supreme Court on tariffs
• 14:05 — Fed chair watch

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Tone and Style

Through the analysts’ pragmatic and somewhat wry tone (with in-jokes about technical difficulties and board setup), the conversation remains brisk, data-oriented, and focused on market and policy impacts rather than sensationalism. The discussion is candid about the likelihood of various outcomes and what listeners should watch for next in Washington and globally.

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Summary

For listeners seeking to understand the far-reaching implications of the U.S. operation in Venezuela and how it sets the stage for 2026 policy, this episode offers both context and a forward-looking assessment—covering the strategic, legislative, and market dimensions in genuine Bloomberg fashion.

Transcript

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[B]

This.

[C]

Is your weekly Washington Policy Pulse on the Balance of Power podcast. I'm Joe Matthew. Every Monday, Bloomberg Intelligence, senior policy analyst and friend of the show, Nathan Dean shares his weekly call on upcoming catalysts in the nation's capital. Listen for the most recent and relevant policy research from our team at Bloomberg Bloomberg Intelligence. Now with today's installment, here's Nathan Dean.

[B]

Good afternoon everybody. Welcome to the Washington Policy Pulse. My name is Nathan Dean. I'm a senior policy analyst with Bloomberg Intelligence here in the Washington, D.C. bureau. We want to say thank you very much for joining. Happy New Year. We hope you had a restful holiday season. And we want to obviously want to say thank you to those of you who are joining us via the Balance of Power podcast. We're recording this call on Monday, January 5th at 10:02am and just like how everything's moved in Washington, it's important to timestamp that because obviously things are happening fairly quickly at the moment and that starts with Venezuela. And so what I want to do is just take a few moments to talk about what some of the research that Bloomberg Intelligence and Bloomberg Economics is putting out on the terminal. And then I'm going to turn it over to my colleague Wayne Sanders, our senior defense analyst, to talk a little bit more through of what he's seeing in terms of what happened this past weekend going forward. Now what you need to know is, is that Bloomberg Intelligence has been putting out notes on the energy impacts. Things like how Venezuelan oil, if it were to come on the market, could be a detriment to Canad, Canadian oil, the industrial impact, the OPEC impact. And if you need copies of that, please let me know. I can certainly share those links with you. And then our colleagues over at Bloomberg Economics have been putting out notes in terms of what they think the three scenarios are going forward. Do they think that this is going to be the most favorable, where the US Support opens a new path for a democratic transition, or is it going to be a transactional focus for the Trump administration or is it going to be a worse outcome for Venezuela where the US and the world will slightly slide into chaos as rival factions jostle for power? That also is available for you on the Bloomberg terminal. But more importantly, for those of you who are on the call at the moment, I want to turn it over to Wayne Sanders because Wayne's been looking at this this past weekend. He and his team have put out some notes on the terminal about what it means for the defense industry and also what do we think is going to be coming going forward in terms of the United States and Venezuela? President Trump's comments on Cuba, Colombia, Greenland, for example. And last thing I'll say before we turn over to Wayne is that, you know, from a congressional standpoint, I don't think you're gonna see much in the way of pushback from Congress towards the president on this. Generally speaking that when these types of things happen, you know, Congress always gets a little upset that they weren't notified in advance or they'll say that, you know, there is, you know, Congress is the one that has to declare war. This goes all the way back. Doesn't matter which president is power. Congress always just doesn't like it when presidents take steps like this without notifying them first. But again, I don't think you're gonna see much of a political pushback from most either. This Democrats really want the message in 2026 to be about affordability and Republicans generally aren't going to be pushing back outside of some of folks like Representative Massie and Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene on that. So Wayne, let's bring you into the conversation. So Wayne, when you saw the news the United States had arrested and taken Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro to New York. What were your first thoughts? What were your thoughts on the operation and what's your thoughts on the defense industry going forward?

[D]

Thanks, Nathan. Yeah, I was surprised at first just based off of the timing. I think that I wasn't quite expecting it to go this early in January. I know President Trump said that he wanted to actually do it at the end of last year, but when you look at the way that this went down, it was pretty much just a three hour extraction of an indicted individual from a company or from a country. But one of the key pieces here is when you look at how precise the US did this, I think this is also a strategic message to a lot of folks as well. You look at the Navy buildup this right, you had Huntington Angles, Ford class carriers out there you had General Dynamics, Huntington Angles, destroyers, amphibious warships, highlighting the need to strengthen domestic shipbuilding capacity, which I think has been another one of the key pieces in there. You had 150 aircraft, B1 bombers, F35s, F22 strike fighters, you had helicopters, you had electronic warfare and then you also had in their offensive cyber capability. So you were able to see a lot of the might of the US Military when it's actually being put together into this type of joint operation. So I think from a, from a defense perspective and industrial base, I think you're really going to see a lot of the boost for precision munitions. That's something that we've, we've knew was going to be coming out. That's going to be a positive for RTX and Lockheed. You're still going to see a lot for shipbuilding continued focus on this as they continue to try and fix the maritime industrial base inside the United States. So I think this is one of the kind of the key pieces that are in there. You mentioned Cuba and Colombia earlier. I think it's a little harder to go after Cuba and Colombia because you don't have an indictment that, that really brings you in to some more of the law enforcement side of the House and less on the military operations side of the House. But from defense industrial spending, I don't see this changing anything. I think that the focus for Indo Pacom, the Indo Pacific region as a whole for long range munitions, hypersonic stealth bombers and all that, that's still going to be there. And I think this narrative just solidifies a lot of that based off of the use of the Navy.

[B]

Right? Well, Wayne, I funny enough. So we're going to call this in the Happy New Year aspect of Nathan didn't get his board set up correctly. So I actually didn't hear a single thing you said, Wayne, but because I can read lips, I actually can't. But I'm just going to presume that you said everything that you said on our team call that we had at 8:30 this morning. So Wayne, I guess the one question I have for you, and I hope that you didn't answer this, but if you did, just give me a wave and say hey, hello, you know, I already sent this so forth like that. You know, as you think of President Trump's strategy, you know, as you think of how the defense industry and how the military is actually going to respond to this, do you think that this is something that's going to play out through the rest of 2026 or do you think that this is something that's more of just like a nuance that markets are going to be like, okay, yes, we had this operation. Nicolas Maduro has been under indictment for the last five years. That's what the administration is using as justification for going in there. It's very important for the administration to stress that FBI agents were on the ground and were the ones that actually took him as opposed to a military operation. When you hear the president talk about Colombia and Cuba and Greenland, I think that's where a lot of our investors are interested in is what's coming next. What are your thoughts? Obviously, I'm not going to hear them, so if you could just give me a smile and a wave when you're done and then I'll come back and listen. I'm going to presume that you said some great stuff.

[D]

Yeah, I think really you're going to be looking for. What we look for is called indicators and warnings. On the, on the military side is you would, you would look at some type of additional buildup. Right. You've already seen some of the key focuses of carrier strike groups going down and being into the Latin America region. I think that's an area where that's, you're probably going to see some impact. You're going to see some variations that are in there. But in terms of trying to pull off the same type of thing that they did against Cuba and Colombia, I think that that does. That ends up being a different kind of capacity that we end up having. We did put one out where we actually looked at the difference between Cuba and Venezuela in terms of size and gdp in terms of what you're actually able to throw at it. Right. Cub 81 billion and Venezuela at 111 billion. So in terms of being able to come forward and defense capacity, I don't see him doing it from the military side.

[B]

Okay, great. Thank you, Wayne. Really appreciate it. And folks, if. If you do want to have a deeper dive conversation with Wayne or individual from a Bloomberg Economics team, please just let us know. I highly recommend, you know, the BE team, Chris, Chris Kennedy, Becca Wasser, they were up over the weekend working on this. We also have our energy analysts, Rob Barnett, Vince Piazza, T. Talon Custer and our industrials teams. They've been writing about this as well. So great. Thank you, Wayne. Feel free to drop if you want, but appreciate and again apologize for the technical difficulties. So let's just move on to a couple of the other congressional stuff that's happening. You know, first off, let's. We have to talk about Obamacare. Now, the Senate returns today, the House returns tomorrow. We're not anticipating a lot happening this week. Fun fact. There's actually a vote on showerhead regulations that I'm actually going to watch just because I think there are some regulations on we need power as showerheads to be a little more powerful. But the one vote that could come up this week is the discharge petition on Obamacare subsidies. Now, obviously, those subsidies, the enhanced subsidies, expired at the end of the year. My colleague Dwayne Wright continues to write about this. The latest that he's put out is that, you know, it's very unlikely you're going to see Congress come together and actually create a deal to extend these subsidies even with the discharge petition. There's just too many Republicans who want these subsidies to end. And there's really no reason here politically why, you know, the Republican Party would want to change this, despite the fact that there's a lot of moderate Republicans who are somewhat, you know, they're a little bit on the fence about this and a little bit concerned on that. So expect some headlines. But unfortunately for the subsidy advocates, it doesn't seem like that's going to go anywhere. We should also talk about the government shutdown. So the government shutdown on January 31st, this would be 9 out of 12 appropriation bills. I actually just pushed put my outlook on the shutdown out this morning. I don't think it's going to happen. I think I'm at a 30% and I actually think that's a little high at the moment. Senator Schumer did one of the Sunday shows over the weekend and essentially just ruled out the idea, saying, look, and I'm paraphrasing here, you know, look, affordability is going to be the word for 2026. This is something the Democrats succeeded in pushing the message in the Virginia, New Jersey, Tennessee, the Georgia special election and so forth like that. And I don't think you're going to see Democrats really want to rock the boat in terms of trying to risk another government shutdown, changing that narrative. And then from the Republican perspective, again, it's not something that they largely got the blame, according to the polling data amongst independents for the previous shutdown. It's not that you're going to likely see. Now, I do think you're going to see a continuing resolution that pushes this to either February or March. And I think part of that is because of what just happened over the weekend. I think you are going to see some of the defense hawks push for additional spending on the defense side, the appropriators probably don't have enough time to get that done. Maybe they will. They probably don't have enough time to get that done. The easiest thing for them to do is kick the can to march and they continue to push this forward. So again, I don't think the government shutdown is going to occur. But the problem with kicking the can to march is that you're going to take time away from other bills. And the one that I'm most tracking and the one that I get the most client interactions with is the crypto, the bipartisan market structure bill, the Clarity Act. Now what I'm telling my clients is on January 1, I was at a 70% chance of passage and I'm sticking with that. Right now. This is slightly becoming out of consensus. But if we get into mid February and we haven't seen any, any real substantial movement on this, then the odds of that are going to slowly decrease because there are a lot of hang ups right now related to the President's involvement in crypto. Some of the privacy, security, securance, I think the privacy security, certain securities, sorry, privacy security concerns can be dealt with. But every day that we go forward into 2026 and substantial progress on this, this crypto bill hasn't been made, my odds are going to decrease. So right now I'm going to give it to about Valentine's Day before I really start changing things, unless we see a statement or two. But something to keep in mind is that the crypto bill right Now I'm at 70% chance, but I'm slowly becoming out of consensus on that because again, more and more folks are saying maybe not. Also on the legislative side, let's talk about reconciliation because you're going to hear a lot of that in terms of headlines this year as well. So if you remember, under the one big beautiful bill, this was passed via reconciliation. This is that bipartisan? Sorry, not bipartisan. It's certainly not bipartisan. It's the budgetary maneuver, the budgetary resolution that allows a majority vote in the House and a majority vote in the Senate. You can bypass the Senate filibuster and you can pass legislation via reconciliation. It only can be used one time per fiscal year. The fiscal year ended on September 30th. And so Republicans have this new ability to pass another reconciliation bill bill. Now, I don't think it's going to happen. I'm going to have a much more in depth note coming out later this week on this. But the one thing to keep in mind is that Senator Lindsey Graham over the weekend is pushing this idea for another reconciliation bill. And right now it's health care tariffs, defense spending. Those are the three areas that folks are really talking about potentially putting it in in terms of trying to get something passed. But again, I'm not exactly sure that they have the votes. The easiest way I've said it, and folks who've been on this call have heard me say this before. You know, if it was easy the first time, they would have done it. It's much harder the second time. So again, we'll see. But my, my bigger note is coming out later this week. Also, keep in mind the scope, the Supreme Court tariff piece. We're still waiting in the Supreme Court arguments on the tariffs. President Trump obviously just put on Truth Social this morning, something about that. I think he's not too happy with what the Supreme Court is thinking. Holly, from our legal analyst, still gives it a 60% chance that the Supreme Court is going to deem those tariffs to be unlawful. She's going to put her update on timing for later this month. This update's going to come out tomorrow. So again, stay tuned on that. And then the last thing I want to point out, just because we've been a little bit, a little bit longer than I like these calls to go, is now that it's January, President Trump has always said the Fed chair decision is coming in January. Now, there hasn't been any reporting that this is going to come anytime soon, but it's January. So be very careful that, you know, expect some headlines related to that because it can come at any point at this time. Time. So again, I want to say apologize for the technical difficulties. I'm sure Wayne did some great speaking. I didn't hear it. I'll hear it when I go back and do the replay. But as we get into 2026, if there's anything we can do, if you want to ask us questions to talk about on the call, please feel free to reach out. My email is ndean10bloomberg.net Again, that's ndean10bloomberg dot net and that is whether or not you're actually on this call or if you're listening to us via the Balance of Power podcast, we certainly want to hear from you. You either way, again, if you have any suggestions on improvements or anything like that, we'll certainly take it. I will stop there. We'll say happy New Year. Thank you again for attending and we wish you a great week.

[C]

Our thanks to Nathan Dean, Bloomberg Intelligence senior policy analyst bringing you the latest installment of his weekly Washington policy Pulse. For more from BI or to join this call live each week, you can email [e-mail] that's ndanoomberg.net and come back to the podcast later today for the latest edition of Balance of Power.

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