Balance of Power — Weekly Washington Policy Pulse: Venezuela, Congress Returns

Host: Joe Mathieu
Guest Analyst: Nathan Dean (Bloomberg Intelligence), with Wayne Sanders (Senior Defense Analyst)
Date: January 5, 2026
Episode Focus: Venezuela, U.S. policy and defense ramifications, and the congressional outlook for 2026

Episode Overview

This episode centers on breaking developments in Venezuela—specifically, the U.S.-led extraction and arrest of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro—and the implications for energy markets, defense policy, and the U.S. Congress’s return for the new year. Host Joe Mathieu introduces Bloomberg Intelligence’s Nathan Dean, who is joined by defense analyst Wayne Sanders for insight on the military operation, global energy and legislative impacts, and expectations for Congress in early 2026.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Venezuela: U.S. Arrests Nicolás Maduro

(02:00–08:24)

• Bloomberg Analysis:

  • The recent U.S. military operation in Venezuela and the extraction of President Nicolás Maduro has broad implications—both for energy markets and geopolitics.
  • Energy Impact: Venezuelan oil returning would challenge Canadian oil and affect OPEC.
    • "Bloomberg Intelligence has been putting out notes on the energy impacts. Things like how Venezuelan oil, if it were to come on the market, could be a detriment to Canadian oil, the industrial impact, the OPEC impact." — Nathan Dean (02:29)
  • Scenarios for U.S.–Venezuela Policy: Three possible outcomes:
    • Favorable democratic transition with U.S. support
    • Transactional approach under the Trump administration
    • Worst case scenario: chaos as rival factions vie for control (03:00)

• Political Response:

  • Congress traditionally objects to presidential overreach in such actions, but major pushback is not expected this time.
    • "Generally speaking … Congress always gets a little upset that they weren’t notified in advance ... But again, I don’t think you’re gonna see much of a political pushback." — Nathan Dean (03:48)
  • Both parties distracted or focused on other narratives, with only a few expected critics.

2. Defense Analysis: Underlying Messages and Industry Impact

Wayne Sanders’ Report (04:05–08:24)

• Operation Details:

  • The U.S. executed a rapid, precise extraction of Maduro—showcasing military might as a global message.
  • "It was pretty much just a three hour extraction of an indicted individual … when you look at how precise the US did this, I think this is also a strategic message to a lot of folks as well." — Wayne Sanders (04:19)

• Military Hardware and Strategy:

  • Large-scale naval and air deployment:
    • Ford-class carriers, destroyers, amphibs (Huntington Ingalls, General Dynamics)
    • 150 aircraft—B-1 bombers, F-35s, F-22s, helicopters, electronic warfare, and offensive cyber capabilities
    • Demonstrates joint force capability and U.S. industrial muscle

• Implications for Defense Industry:

  • Positive outlook for precision munitions (benefiting RTX, Lockheed)
  • Shipbuilding receives renewed focus; no diversion from Indo-Pacific commitments
  • "You're really going to see a lot of the boost for precision munitions … you're still going to see a lot for shipbuilding … trying to fix the maritime industrial base inside the United States." — Wayne Sanders (05:11)

• Comparison with Other Scenarios:

  • Operations in Cuba or Colombia unlikely, as those lack the legal justification of an existing indictment.

3. Markets, Military, and What Could Come Next

Nathan Dean Q&A with Wayne Sanders (06:02–08:24)

• Dean asks if this signals a longer defense/military engagement or a one-off event.
• "It's very important for the administration to stress that FBI agents were on the ground and were the ones that actually took him as opposed to a military operation." — Nathan Dean (06:27)
• Sanders discusses "indicators and warnings" for future involvement in the region; suggests significant military buildup would be a sign of more to come, but current differences between Venezuela and other nearby nations make similar operations unlikely.

U.S. Congressional Outlook: 2026 Session

(08:24–14:40)

• Congress Returns to Washington:

  • Senate in session; House returns the following day.

• Key Policy Issues:

  • Obamacare Subsidies:

    • Enhanced subsidies expired; new legislation unlikely despite some moderate Republican concerns.
    • "It’s very unlikely you’re going to see Congress come together and actually create a deal to extend these subsidies … for the subsidy advocates, it doesn’t seem like that’s going to go anywhere." — Nathan Dean (09:52)

  • Government Shutdown Risks:

    • Next deadline: January 31; most appropriations still pending.
    • Dean sees only a 30% risk of shutdown, expects a short-term continuing resolution.
    • "I don’t think it’s going to happen. I think I’m at a 30% and I actually think that’s a little high at the moment." (10:33)
    • Democrats focus on affordability narrative; Republicans prefer to avoid blame after previous shutdowns.

  • Crypto Regulation:

    • Bipartisan "Market Structure Clarity Act": Dean assigns a 70% chance of passage if action is taken by mid-February.
    • "Every day that we go forward into 2026 and substantial progress on this crypto bill hasn’t been made, my odds are going to decrease." (12:18)

  • Reconciliation and Tariffs:

    • Potential for a new reconciliation bill in 2026 (health care, tariffs, defense) but lacks votes and momentum.
    • Supreme Court’s pending decision could strike down Trump-era tariffs; 60% chance of being ruled unlawful, per Bloomberg’s legal analysts.

  • Federal Reserve Chair Announcement:

    • President Trump has indicated a new Fed Chair announcement is forthcoming in January, so market watchers should stay alert for “out of the blue” headlines.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Congressional Pushback:
  "Congress always just doesn't like it when presidents take steps like this without notifying them first. But again, I don't think you're gonna see much of a political pushback from most either."
  — Nathan Dean (03:45)

• On Military Demonstration:
  "You were able to see a lot of the might of the US Military when it's actually being put together into this type of joint operation."
  — Wayne Sanders (04:58)

• On Energy and Defense Link:
  "I think this is also a strategic message to a lot of folks as well … highlighting the need to strengthen domestic shipbuilding capacity, which I think has been another one of the key pieces in there."
  — Wayne Sanders (04:30)

• On Likelihood of Government Shutdown:
  "I don’t think it’s going to happen. I think I’m at a 30% and I actually think that’s a little high at the moment."
  — Nathan Dean (10:34)

• On Crypto Legislation:
  "Right now I'm at 70% chance, but I'm slowly becoming out of consensus on that because again, more and more folks are saying maybe not."
  — Nathan Dean (12:41)

Timestamps for Important Segments

• 02:00 — Opening of policy pulse/Bloomberg analysis on Venezuela
• 04:05 — Wayne Sanders: Defense analysis of Venezuela operation
• 06:27 — Admin justification and future risk in region
• 08:24 — Transition to U.S. Congress: subsidies, shutdowns
• 10:34 — Shutdown risk assessment
• 12:18 — Crypto legislation outlook
• 13:40 — Reconciliation and Supreme Court on tariffs
• 14:05 — Fed chair watch

Tone and Style

Through the analysts’ pragmatic and somewhat wry tone (with in-jokes about technical difficulties and board setup), the conversation remains brisk, data-oriented, and focused on market and policy impacts rather than sensationalism. The discussion is candid about the likelihood of various outcomes and what listeners should watch for next in Washington and globally.

Summary

For listeners seeking to understand the far-reaching implications of the U.S. operation in Venezuela and how it sets the stage for 2026 policy, this episode offers both context and a forward-looking assessment—covering the strategic, legislative, and market dimensions in genuine Bloomberg fashion.