Balance of Power — “White House Touts Job Gains”

Bloomberg | Joe Mathieu & Kailey Leinz | November 20, 2025

Episode Overview

This episode centers on the latest U.S. job numbers and their implications for the Federal Reserve’s policy, the broader economy, and voter sentiment heading into an election year. Hosts Joe Mathieu and Kailey Leinz bring in expert guests—Bloomberg Economics’ Chief U.S. Economist Anna Wong, Ipsos U.S. Public Affairs Chair Cliff Young, and Rep. Andrew Garbarino—to unpack not just what the headline jobs report means, but what underlying trends reveal about labor markets, AI’s economic impact, popular political rhetoric around inflation and affordability, Congressional stock trading controversies, and the growing geopolitical and cybersecurity concerns with technology exports.

Part 1: Jobs Report & Labor Market Fragility

Segment: 00:55–09:42 | Guest: Anna Wong, Chief U.S. Economist, Bloomberg Economics

Key Points & Insights

• Strong Payrolls Numbers, Rising Unemployment

  • October headline payrolls rose by 119,000—more than twice Bloomberg’s anticipated estimate. Yet, unemployment reached its highest level in four years.
  • The rise in labor force participation—over 200,000 joining the workforce—helped push up the unemployment rate, despite job growth.

• “Fragility Under the Hood”

  • While job gains in construction (especially data centers) and leisure/hospitality were highlighted, Anna Wong noted rising permanent layoffs are near last year’s recessionary levels.
  • Wong draws a parallel to July 2024, when a prior slowdown triggered a 50-basis-point Fed cut, arguing a case is building for another December rate cut:

    “So July 2024 was a very weak moment in the labor market and that was what prompted the Fed to cut by 50 bips in September of last year and we're almost close to that now. So I think there is a case for the Fed to cut in December.” (Anna Wong, 02:11)

• AI, Productivity, & the Future Workforce

  • Anna Wong points to AI as both a current and future productivity driver, but also a cause for concern around white-collar jobs, particularly recent college graduates.
  • Drawing on China’s experience, Wong notes AI is showing deflationary effects and suppressing hiring among highly educated young cohorts.

    “If you think that the AI trend is going to happen, that should lead to decreased hiring amongst college graduates… China's adoption is faster than the US. And I think that society provides a little glimpse of what the labor market could look like.” (Anna Wong, 05:18)

• On AI & Deflation:

  “AI is deflationary ... They were talking about how AI is reducing costs in all these other areas … healthcare to Lowe’s helping with supply chains.” (Anna Wong, 06:45)

  “Productivity is exactly the flip side of the coin. Just a better way to say limiting labor.” (Anna Wong, 07:25)

• Short-Term Labor Demand vs. Long-Term Job Risks

  • The panelists acknowledge that the AI/data center boom creates temporary surges in construction and specialty trades, while the real productivity benefits (and employment impacts) will be visible in a year or two.

Quotes & Moments

• Anna Wong on the puzzle of the jobs data:

  “There are a little bit ... a lot of good news in this jobs report too. For example, the strength on the headline payroll ... construction sector ... specialty trade, construction workers that are in high demand ... leisure and hospitality increasing ... the dollar depreciation … supporting foreign tourism.” (Anna Wong, 03:33)

• On future hiring:

  “We are going to continue to see a lot of payrolls that could be fluctuating between, you know, 10k to 80k.” (Anna Wong, 03:51)

Part 2: Inflation, Affordability & Political Messaging

Segment: 11:03–21:49 | Guest: Cliff Young, Chair, U.S. Public Affairs, Ipsos

Key Points & Insights

• Rhetoric vs. Reality in the Inflation Debate

  • The White House has shifted its language from “inflation” to “affordability”—a move discussed and gently mocked by the hosts, who note the term is now central in political speeches.

  • Joe Mathieu on President Biden’s messaging:

    “They're making incredible strides to make America affordable again. That's a new word that they're using, affordability. … We’re bringing prices down. But they came up with a new word, affordability.” (Joe Mathieu, 12:37)

• Disconnect with Voters

  • Cliff Young argues the public doesn’t care about Washington’s word games—they feel squeezed, and worry about job security, even if some prices have moderated:

    "The problem is if you talk to people ... they can't make ends meet. ... They're worried about their kids ... can't find jobs ... Americans, I would say, are in a surly mood." (Cliff Young, 15:07)

• Trump’s Declining Economic Approval

  • Despite Biden’s rhetorical pivot, it’s Trump’s approval ratings on the economy that have dropped 8–9 points this year, nearing a critical “inflection point” at 40%. Ipsos estimates tariffs' inflationary impacts could drop support to dangerous lows:

    "Going below 40 is a really negative signal to the markets in general, more specifically to the political market." (Cliff Young, 17:09) "Our estimate ... between one and three points. So if he's at 42, that takes them down to 40 or 39." (Cliff Young, 18:54)

• Walmart, Tariffs, and Real-World Consequences

  • Discussion of Walmart’s warnings about tariff-driven price hikes serve as a stand-in for real economic pain that voters notice.
  • On the administration’s idea of issuing $2,000 checks to Americans:

    “It wouldn't hurt ... but our experience with this sort of pump priming … around the world, is that it has a temporary impact, but the macro conditions tend to swamp them out.” (Cliff Young, 20:25)

Part 3: Congressional Stock Trading Ban – Capitol Hill “Sewer”

Segment: 22:39–31:56 | Contributors: Rick Davis, Kristen Hahn

Key Points & Insights

• Momentum for Banning Personal Stock Trading in Congress

  • Longstanding frustration about insider trading by legislators has boiled over, with the latest hearing and pressure from rank-and-file members, not leadership.
  • Rep. Tim Burchett colorfully compares Capitol Hill to a man-made “sewer,” not a “swamp,” criticizing self-enrichment by lawmakers:

    "Everybody talks about this place being a dadgum swamp. It's not a swamp ... This is a sewer." (Tim Burchett, 23:55)

• Bipartisan Popularity, Private Skepticism

  • As Democratic strategist Kristen Hahn notes, the issue has 90% public approval across party lines, but many lawmakers quietly resent new restrictions, especially those that would affect their families' inherited assets:

    "There are a lot more mixed feelings behind the scenes about this than a lot of the members are saying out loud because they know how popular it is with the American people." (Kristen Hahn, 26:42)

• Current Rules and Gaps

  • Existing regulations (the STOCK Act) require transparency but don’t prohibit trading, and are seen as too lax. New proposals would end individual stock picking—members could use ETFs instead.
  • Rick Davis:

    "You want ETFs, you want to trade on the Pelosi ETF, no problem. But when you start picking stocks, you betray the fact that every major issue ... pass through that chamber ..." (Rick Davis, 27:56)

• Public ETF Performance as Scandal Theme

  • The "Nance" ETF, which tracks Democratic congressional trades (named for Nancy Pelosi), is up 12% in a year—beating the S&P 500—adding to public suspicions of unfair advantages.

Part 4: U.S. Tech Exports, National Security, and Cyber Threats

Segment: 33:14–42:45 | Guest: Rep. Andrew Garbarino (R-NY), Chair, Homeland Security Committee

Key Points & Insights

• Transfer of Sensitive Technologies

  • The conversation covers U.S. sales of Nvidia chips to Saudi Arabia, and concerns that advanced tech, including F-35s, could be transferred to adversaries via third countries or through cyber-attacks.
  • Garbarino supports enhanced vigilance and secure infrastructure at home:

    “It's always a concern when we develop great technology here and then we export it ... we have to be extra vigilant in making sure that we protect our critical infrastructure here at home.” (Rep. Garbarino, 35:16)

• AI in Cybersecurity—Defense and Offense

  • Garbarino cites a recent aggressive case where AI was used in a cyberattack on Anthropic, calling for use of “AI to beat AI” in defending critical infrastructure.

    “If the bad guys are going to be using AI to attack us, we should be using AI implementing that in our cyber defenses ... it's going to be impossible to fight ... just human intervention and defense alone.” (Rep. Garbarino, 36:00)

• Pillar Cybersecurity Legislation

  • Recent bills strengthen federal response to state-sponsored cyber threats, streamline information sharing across agencies and with the private sector, and fund state/local cyber defenses. Garbarino takes pride in bipartisan passage.

• TikTok and Data Security

  • Garbarino expresses caution about any TikTok “deal” without clear answers on who controls data and algorithms.

• NYC Security and Mayoral Politics

  • On the upcoming White House meeting between the president and New York’s mayor-elect, Garbarino emphasizes public safety in light of 9/11’s upcoming 25th anniversary.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Job Market Fragility:

  "The fragility under the hood is what this market is concerned about." (Joe Mathieu, 03:16)

• On AI’s True Impact:

  “Productivity is exactly the flip side of the coin: just a better way to say limiting labor.” (Anna Wong, 07:25)

• On the Affordability Messaging:

  “The problem is if you talk to people, ... they can’t make ends meet ... Americans, I would say, are in a surly mood.” (Cliff Young, 15:07)

• On Congressional Stock Trading:

  “It’s not a swamp. A swamp is something cool God created. ... This is a sewer.” (Tim Burchett, 23:55)

• On Export Risks:

  “We have to be extra vigilant in making sure that we protect our critical infrastructure here at home.” (Rep. Garbarino, 35:16)

Key Timestamps for Important Segments

• Jobs & Labor Market Analysis w/ Anna Wong:
  [00:55–09:42]
• White House Messaging on “Affordability”, Rhetoric vs. Reality:
  [11:03–16:36]
• Ipsos Polling on Economy, Approval Ratings and Voter Sentiment:
  [16:36–21:08]
• Congressional Stock Trading Ban Debate:
  [22:39–31:56]
• U.S.-Saudi AI/Chips Sale, Cybersecurity & Tech Export Policy w/ Rep. Garbarino:
  [33:14–42:45]

Tone & Style

The episode maintains an analytical, slightly skeptical, and conversational tone, combining data-driven insights, expert interviews, and sharp, at times humorous, commentary on Washington’s political rhetoric.

For Those Who Haven’t Listened

This episode is a rich snapshot of how jobs, inflation, technological change, political messaging, and ethical dilemmas on Capitol Hill intersect and shape the policy conversation in Washington—and potentially, the choices of American voters. The guests offer clear-eyed, sometimes sobering assessments of both risks and opportunities as policymakers try to navigate a rapidly changing economic and geopolitical landscape.