White House Touts Job Gains

Summary

Balance of Power — “White House Touts Job Gains”

Bloomberg | Joe Mathieu & Kailey Leinz | November 20, 2025

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Episode Overview

This episode centers on the latest U.S. job numbers and their implications for the Federal Reserve’s policy, the broader economy, and voter sentiment heading into an election year. Hosts Joe Mathieu and Kailey Leinz bring in expert guests—Bloomberg Economics’ Chief U.S. Economist Anna Wong, Ipsos U.S. Public Affairs Chair Cliff Young, and Rep. Andrew Garbarino—to unpack not just what the headline jobs report means, but what underlying trends reveal about labor markets, AI’s economic impact, popular political rhetoric around inflation and affordability, Congressional stock trading controversies, and the growing geopolitical and cybersecurity concerns with technology exports.

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Part 1: Jobs Report & Labor Market Fragility

Segment: 00:55–09:42 | Guest: Anna Wong, Chief U.S. Economist, Bloomberg Economics

Key Points & Insights

• Strong Payrolls Numbers, Rising Unemployment

  • October headline payrolls rose by 119,000—more than twice Bloomberg’s anticipated estimate. Yet, unemployment reached its highest level in four years.
  • The rise in labor force participation—over 200,000 joining the workforce—helped push up the unemployment rate, despite job growth.

• “Fragility Under the Hood”

  • While job gains in construction (especially data centers) and leisure/hospitality were highlighted, Anna Wong noted rising permanent layoffs are near last year’s recessionary levels.
  • Wong draws a parallel to July 2024, when a prior slowdown triggered a 50-basis-point Fed cut, arguing a case is building for another December rate cut:

    “So July 2024 was a very weak moment in the labor market and that was what prompted the Fed to cut by 50 bips in September of last year and we're almost close to that now. So I think there is a case for the Fed to cut in December.” (Anna Wong, 02:11)

• AI, Productivity, & the Future Workforce

  • Anna Wong points to AI as both a current and future productivity driver, but also a cause for concern around white-collar jobs, particularly recent college graduates.
  • Drawing on China’s experience, Wong notes AI is showing deflationary effects and suppressing hiring among highly educated young cohorts.

    “If you think that the AI trend is going to happen, that should lead to decreased hiring amongst college graduates… China's adoption is faster than the US. And I think that society provides a little glimpse of what the labor market could look like.” (Anna Wong, 05:18)

• On AI & Deflation:

  “AI is deflationary ... They were talking about how AI is reducing costs in all these other areas … healthcare to Lowe’s helping with supply chains.” (Anna Wong, 06:45)

  “Productivity is exactly the flip side of the coin. Just a better way to say limiting labor.” (Anna Wong, 07:25)

• Short-Term Labor Demand vs. Long-Term Job Risks

  • The panelists acknowledge that the AI/data center boom creates temporary surges in construction and specialty trades, while the real productivity benefits (and employment impacts) will be visible in a year or two.

Quotes & Moments

• Anna Wong on the puzzle of the jobs data:

  “There are a little bit ... a lot of good news in this jobs report too. For example, the strength on the headline payroll ... construction sector ... specialty trade, construction workers that are in high demand ... leisure and hospitality increasing ... the dollar depreciation … supporting foreign tourism.” (Anna Wong, 03:33)

• On future hiring:

  “We are going to continue to see a lot of payrolls that could be fluctuating between, you know, 10k to 80k.” (Anna Wong, 03:51)

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Part 2: Inflation, Affordability & Political Messaging

Segment: 11:03–21:49 | Guest: Cliff Young, Chair, U.S. Public Affairs, Ipsos

Key Points & Insights

• Rhetoric vs. Reality in the Inflation Debate

  • The White House has shifted its language from “inflation” to “affordability”—a move discussed and gently mocked by the hosts, who note the term is now central in political speeches.

  • Joe Mathieu on President Biden’s messaging:

    “They're making incredible strides to make America affordable again. That's a new word that they're using, affordability. … We’re bringing prices down. But they came up with a new word, affordability.” (Joe Mathieu, 12:37)

• Disconnect with Voters

  • Cliff Young argues the public doesn’t care about Washington’s word games—they feel squeezed, and worry about job security, even if some prices have moderated:

    "The problem is if you talk to people ... they can't make ends meet. ... They're worried about their kids ... can't find jobs ... Americans, I would say, are in a surly mood." (Cliff Young, 15:07)

• Trump’s Declining Economic Approval

  • Despite Biden’s rhetorical pivot, it’s Trump’s approval ratings on the economy that have dropped 8–9 points this year, nearing a critical “inflection point” at 40%. Ipsos estimates tariffs' inflationary impacts could drop support to dangerous lows:

    "Going below 40 is a really negative signal to the markets in general, more specifically to the political market." (Cliff Young, 17:09) "Our estimate ... between one and three points. So if he's at 42, that takes them down to 40 or 39." (Cliff Young, 18:54)

• Walmart, Tariffs, and Real-World Consequences

  • Discussion of Walmart’s warnings about tariff-driven price hikes serve as a stand-in for real economic pain that voters notice.
  • On the administration’s idea of issuing $2,000 checks to Americans:

    “It wouldn't hurt ... but our experience with this sort of pump priming … around the world, is that it has a temporary impact, but the macro conditions tend to swamp them out.” (Cliff Young, 20:25)

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Part 3: Congressional Stock Trading Ban – Capitol Hill “Sewer”

Segment: 22:39–31:56 | Contributors: Rick Davis, Kristen Hahn

Key Points & Insights

• Momentum for Banning Personal Stock Trading in Congress

  • Longstanding frustration about insider trading by legislators has boiled over, with the latest hearing and pressure from rank-and-file members, not leadership.
  • Rep. Tim Burchett colorfully compares Capitol Hill to a man-made “sewer,” not a “swamp,” criticizing self-enrichment by lawmakers:

    "Everybody talks about this place being a dadgum swamp. It's not a swamp ... This is a sewer." (Tim Burchett, 23:55)

• Bipartisan Popularity, Private Skepticism

  • As Democratic strategist Kristen Hahn notes, the issue has 90% public approval across party lines, but many lawmakers quietly resent new restrictions, especially those that would affect their families' inherited assets:

    "There are a lot more mixed feelings behind the scenes about this than a lot of the members are saying out loud because they know how popular it is with the American people." (Kristen Hahn, 26:42)

• Current Rules and Gaps

  • Existing regulations (the STOCK Act) require transparency but don’t prohibit trading, and are seen as too lax. New proposals would end individual stock picking—members could use ETFs instead.
  • Rick Davis:

    "You want ETFs, you want to trade on the Pelosi ETF, no problem. But when you start picking stocks, you betray the fact that every major issue ... pass through that chamber ..." (Rick Davis, 27:56)

• Public ETF Performance as Scandal Theme

  • The "Nance" ETF, which tracks Democratic congressional trades (named for Nancy Pelosi), is up 12% in a year—beating the S&P 500—adding to public suspicions of unfair advantages.

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Part 4: U.S. Tech Exports, National Security, and Cyber Threats

Segment: 33:14–42:45 | Guest: Rep. Andrew Garbarino (R-NY), Chair, Homeland Security Committee

Key Points & Insights

• Transfer of Sensitive Technologies

  • The conversation covers U.S. sales of Nvidia chips to Saudi Arabia, and concerns that advanced tech, including F-35s, could be transferred to adversaries via third countries or through cyber-attacks.
  • Garbarino supports enhanced vigilance and secure infrastructure at home:

    “It's always a concern when we develop great technology here and then we export it ... we have to be extra vigilant in making sure that we protect our critical infrastructure here at home.” (Rep. Garbarino, 35:16)

• AI in Cybersecurity—Defense and Offense

  • Garbarino cites a recent aggressive case where AI was used in a cyberattack on Anthropic, calling for use of “AI to beat AI” in defending critical infrastructure.

    “If the bad guys are going to be using AI to attack us, we should be using AI implementing that in our cyber defenses ... it's going to be impossible to fight ... just human intervention and defense alone.” (Rep. Garbarino, 36:00)

• Pillar Cybersecurity Legislation

  • Recent bills strengthen federal response to state-sponsored cyber threats, streamline information sharing across agencies and with the private sector, and fund state/local cyber defenses. Garbarino takes pride in bipartisan passage.

• TikTok and Data Security

  • Garbarino expresses caution about any TikTok “deal” without clear answers on who controls data and algorithms.

• NYC Security and Mayoral Politics

  • On the upcoming White House meeting between the president and New York’s mayor-elect, Garbarino emphasizes public safety in light of 9/11’s upcoming 25th anniversary.

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Job Market Fragility:

  "The fragility under the hood is what this market is concerned about." (Joe Mathieu, 03:16)

• On AI’s True Impact:

  “Productivity is exactly the flip side of the coin: just a better way to say limiting labor.” (Anna Wong, 07:25)

• On the Affordability Messaging:

  “The problem is if you talk to people, ... they can’t make ends meet ... Americans, I would say, are in a surly mood.” (Cliff Young, 15:07)

• On Congressional Stock Trading:

  “It’s not a swamp. A swamp is something cool God created. ... This is a sewer.” (Tim Burchett, 23:55)

• On Export Risks:

  “We have to be extra vigilant in making sure that we protect our critical infrastructure here at home.” (Rep. Garbarino, 35:16)

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Key Timestamps for Important Segments

• Jobs & Labor Market Analysis w/ Anna Wong:
  [00:55–09:42]
• White House Messaging on “Affordability”, Rhetoric vs. Reality:
  [11:03–16:36]
• Ipsos Polling on Economy, Approval Ratings and Voter Sentiment:
  [16:36–21:08]
• Congressional Stock Trading Ban Debate:
  [22:39–31:56]
• U.S.-Saudi AI/Chips Sale, Cybersecurity & Tech Export Policy w/ Rep. Garbarino:
  [33:14–42:45]

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Tone & Style

The episode maintains an analytical, slightly skeptical, and conversational tone, combining data-driven insights, expert interviews, and sharp, at times humorous, commentary on Washington’s political rhetoric.

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For Those Who Haven’t Listened

This episode is a rich snapshot of how jobs, inflation, technological change, political messaging, and ethical dilemmas on Capitol Hill intersect and shape the policy conversation in Washington—and potentially, the choices of American voters. The guests offer clear-eyed, sometimes sobering assessments of both risks and opportunities as policymakers try to navigate a rapidly changing economic and geopolitical landscape.

Transcript

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[Joe Matthew]

Yeah, it is Thursday. Thanks for being here. 20th of November, Bloomberg Radio satellite radio channel 121 streaming live right now on YouTube. And if you've got YouTube TV by the way, they've got us up there as well. Watch Bloomberg Originals if you want to see the radio on tv. So it's all about numbers here, right? You've got a White House talking about the strength in the job market. You've also got a market worried about strength in the job market keeping the Fed from cutting. But let's see what we have here. Unemployment, highest level in four years. Now again, this is September, right? This is when the government was shutting down. They didn't put out all the data that was had. So we're going back in time here. Positive dynamic as I read on the terminal of more Americans participating in the workforce and as well the gloomier reality of more people losing their jobs. Payrolls today coming in at 119,000. That's more than twice the estimate. But it depends on the estimate because Bloomberg Economics saw a net gain of 100,000 jobs. And that's why we thought we'd spend some time with the face of Bloomberg Economics. Anna Wong is with us, chief U.S. economist at B. Great to see you. Anna. How come you were closer than everybody else?

[Anna Wong]

Well, so the way we forecast is that we look at home base, which is a small business centric private payrolls. And what we have noticed is that small businesses have improved hiring since I would say the middle of this year. So I think for, for that segment of the job market there are some job openings that's that's going on. But I think at the end of the day what's worrisome, as you mentioned, Joe, is the unemployment rate that we are seeing, that the permanent job losses, the U2 unemployment rate, which tends to capture more of the cyclical dynamics show that the number of job losses in terms of permanent job losses is almost back to where it was last year. So July 2024 was a very weak moment in the labor market and that was what prompted the fed to cut by 50 bips in September of last year and we're almost close to that now. So I think there is a case for the Fed to cut in December.

[Joe Matthew]

All right, there you go. Now the word in our headline on the terminal is fragile that the fragility under the hood is what this market is concerned about. And you're reflecting that in your statement. What is this going to mean for a month from is this the beginning of a longer term trend?

[Anna Wong]

Yeah, so. So you know there are a little bit of good news in the I mean not a little bit a lot of good news in this jobs report too. For example, the strength on the headline payroll. One of the reason was the construction sector and you would think it's surprising because the housing sector is definitely cooling.

[Joe Matthew]

Data center.

[Anna Wong]

Yes. So it is a specialty trade, construction workers that are in high demand. So the air is showing up even in the payrolls. And also you have leisure and hospitality increasing because I think the weather was great in September and also the dollar depreciation from earlier this year is supporting foreign tourism. However is this. But if you think that is ultimately going to improve productivity, as I do, I do think that I will be boosting productivity growth into 2026. This weakness in hiring will continue because that's how the productivity gains come, where they come from. So I do we are going to continue to see a lot of payrolls that could be fluctuating between, you know, 10k to 80k.

[Joe Matthew]

Want to hear from the labor Secretary? We spoke earlier today with Laurie Chavez Darimer on Bloomberg TV and Radio. Here's how she reflected these results this morning.

[Anna Wong]

This was a solid report for the September numbers. We'll have to see how November numbers come out in mid December. But I think that this is good for the American people. We know that more people are wanting to work and they're actively seeking those jobs. And so it is my responsibility to make sure that we have that skilled workforce.

[Joe Matthew]

So talk to us in this case about participation and how that played into the unemployment rate.

[Anna Wong]

Right. Recall that earlier this year we had three consecutive months of drop in labor participation and that was one reason why unemployment rate was stable. But suddenly today we see this over 400,000 increase in population growth and over I think 200,000 in labor force increase. And that was one reason why the unemployment rate increased today. I think that this might be an anomaly. I just, I'm. I am not at all confident that labor force participation is improving because this, if you think that the AI trend is going to happen, that should lead to decreased hiring amongst college graduates, the people from from in 20s to early 30s as we have seen in China. Because China's adoption is faster than the US And I think that society provides a little glimpse of what the labor market could look like once it's faster at adoption.

[Joe Matthew]

That's fascinating. I would love to hear more about that because this is what we're hearing, that jobs for instance, new college graduates are just falling off a cliff right now. The push and pull here in Washington about how to regulate this to protect the job market is a difficult one because no one knows exactly what it's going to look like. Do we each get a digital twin or are we replaced by a bot? What's China teaching us about that?

[Anna Wong]

I think China is teaching us that AI is deflationary. In fact, Janssen Huang's presentation yesterday in the Earning Transcript, I was surprised that they, they actually mentioned how AI is deflation. It is talking about, they were talking about how AI is reducing costs in all these other areas. They named like whole bunch of companies that are buying Nvidia chips and from a range of industries from health care to Lowe's helping with supply chains and.

[Joe Matthew]

By simply increasing productivity or what's, what's the lowering costs. But how do you lower costs through AI by increasing productivity or eliminating labor?

[Anna Wong]

It's the same thing. Productivity is exactly the flip side of the coin. Just a better way to say limiting labor.

[Joe Matthew]

So it's already happening then that means some of people's fears are being realized here.

[Anna Wong]

So I think so. But that view is quite polarizing because I think if you survey economists, you will see half of them saying that there's no evidence at all of productivity from AI because I think generally aggregate labor productivity takes about two or three years before it shows up clearly. Like in the 1990s, the statistics didn't show any sign of product productivity boom until 1997. Then they revise all the data and suddenly 1995 was when, when it started booming. However, the evidence of productivity starts at firm earning at the micro level. And we are seeing that right now.

[Joe Matthew]

Incredible. So you know, you start thinking about the near term boost in hiring that you point out construction workers, the data center expansion. So it puts everybody to work to build this whole thing out. Also we can end up without a job by the time it's over.

[Anna Wong]

Well, I think that, I think, I think two things are happening at once. You have this labor demand generating from building out the infrastructure you require for broad based productivity gains. Because, because right now the productivity gains from AI is really concentrated in IT or sales or legal white collar sectors. But for IT to generate broad base against you, everybody is to be adopting it in the Nvidia earning. Yesterday Jensen said AIR is everywhere and he named all these sectors that is using AI. So we're in the beginning of that and I think in a year or two, once this infrastructure is built out in the meantime getting like a lot of labor demand in those, then we'll see more productivity gains. But in the meantime in the transition phase, I do think that the slowdown in labor demand as a result of adoption of AI would more than offset the increase in demand demand from like building data center in the construction sector or H Vac or these specialty trades.

[Joe Matthew]

We better figure out a way to retire here pretty soon. I know producer James is working on IT and it. Thank you so much. I learned something every time I talk to Anna Wong and I think you probably do every time you listen to her. And it's a great pleasure to spend time with the chief U.S. economist at Bloomberg Economics on a Jobs Thursday. Still getting used to that. I'm Joe Matthew in Washington. Cliff Young from Ipsos on the way in next as we turn to polling on the economy on Bloomberg. Stay with us on Balance of Power. We'll have much more coming up after this.

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[Joe Matthew]

We've got concerns about a slowdown in jobs, although that seems to be helping people get their heads around another interest rate cut. I don't know. Look, you can find a way to make good news bad news and make bad news good news when it comes to the Fed pretty easily. So we'll put that down for a moment. The issue of affordability is very real for many Americans. And when you think about what Anna Wong just talked about, the permanent job losses that we're seeing, for instance in the September data put against the prospect of rising prices once again, or at least stubbornly high prices, and we've got some issues here. This is why the White House has been talking about so called affordability, or dare I call it inflation. For weeks now, the President has been saying in interviews and speeches that no prices are lower. And he got to this yesterday during the big Saudi investment conference that took place at the Kennedy Center. That was a, a heck of a speech. We could do a lot of different cuts on this, on a lot of different topics, but he got to this issue, let's call it inflation for a moment or, or just prices for that matter. Cost. I think we heard a lot about costs in the election the other day. And I know this is a game of semantics, but the President seems perplexed by the changing rhetoric here around this very stubborn issue. Listen to what he said about affordability. They're making incredible strides to make America affordable again. That's a new word that they're using, affordability. We're bringing prices down. But they came up with a new word, affordability.

[Andrew Garbarino]

And they look at the.

[Joe Matthew]

We are all about affordability. And everyone assumes that that meant that no, their prices were high. They're being, I guess, Democrats. Affordability. It is a term that we use pretty often in the American lexicon. Just like the word grocery, which the President has also wrestled with. He was grinding through that term grocery for some time on the campaign trail and it still comes up grocery and the things it represents. Here you remember a simple word like that.

[Andrew Garbarino]

Groceries. It was like almost a strange word.

[Joe Matthew]

I hadn't heard the word in so long. But what could be more beautiful than the word grocery? Such an old fashioned term, but a beautiful term, groceries. It sort of says a bag with different things in it. It's a bag with different things in it, as he said a couple of times as well. Blt, right? Grocery. Bacon, lettuce, tomato. We wonder again how much time the President has spent in a grocery store. And you have to Consider the origin of the term. You know, he is right. It is a, it's an old word. You might think it's beautiful. Comes from the old French grocery meaning wholesaler. Did you know that? Yeah. Was used to describe merchants who sold goods in large quantities by the gross. Ah, I get it now. It doesn't mean that something is gross. The earliest use of grocery in English around the 14th century referred to a wholesaler or the goods they sold in bulk or in the words of the President, everything that you put in a bag. Now fast forward to the numbers that they're churning out at Ipsos here because I'll put this all together for you in a minute. Affordability, grocery and the headline from Cliff Young, Trump's inflection point, the economy rears its ugly head. Cliff is the U.S. public Affairs Chair at Ipsos professor at Texas A and M University's Bush School of Government and Public Service. Cliff, it's great to have you back. What do you think of when I use the term grocery?

[Venmo Advertiser (Alternate)]

Yeah, well, first and foremost, I think the President. There's a bit of disconnect there between what real people, real Americans in the day to day lives are experiencing and how you call it.

[Joe Matthew]

Right.

[Venmo Advertiser (Alternate)]

That doesn't matter whether you call it groceries or affordability or a banana. The problem is if you talk to people, you talk to the average person, they can't make ends meet. They don't have as much money at the end of the month. And they're scared because it's not just about the present problems. It's also about future anticipation. There's trepidation about tariffs, there's trepidation and fear about AI and you put that all together and Americans, I would say, are in a surly mood.

[Joe Matthew]

So if I say grocery, that doesn't help. If I say a different affordability, cost, inflation. Do people care about this? Are you doing like word bubbles on this stuff?

[Venmo Advertiser (Alternate)]

No. You know, U.S. analysts called it affordability. U.S. analysts call it inflation. Inflation rate. The average American is talking about making ends meet. How much money is left over at the end of the month. They're worried about their kids that are coming out of college that can't find jobs. These are very practical, very real issues. And indeed, just to emphasize again, the disconnect that you just showed with the President, Biden committed the same error, the Biden administration as well, by saying that the economy was doing well when it wasn't doing well. It's very important for decision makers to understand that Americans truly don't feel like they can make ends meet today.

[Joe Matthew]

Well, I wonder what people make of this rhetoric. Obviously, some of that was from the campaign trail, and he was obviously elected after that. Mike Walsh used to make fun of the whole grocery thing on the trail, but you remember a time when George H.W. bush was mocked for not knowing the price of a gallon of milk. Right. He didn't know what the scanner was at the grocery store. And people said, my God, he doesn't even know what it's like to live in this country. That doesn't seem to be an issue for Donald Trump, but his approval ratings when it comes to the economy are not good. Cliff, what are you learning now?

[Venmo Advertiser (Alternate)]

I think it's showing, by the way, I think that the economy is having impact. People are feeling it. Donald Trump obviously started off as the second term in a lower place relative to historical averages, but in a pretty good place. He's been. He's been outstripping for a big chunk of this year, 2017. Right now he's at 42% approval rating. That is the average of all the polls out there, not just Ipsos. Is that good or bad? Well, I would say it's trending negative. If you put that into historic context, the decline over this year for Donald Trump is about 8 or 9. The historic average is 5. And when you get close to 40, that's like the inflection point. That's a moment when administrations really have to worry about things. Going below 40 is a really negative signal to the markets in general, more specifically to the political market. So, no, he's not in a good place. And the primary driver of this is the economy. It's how people are feeling day to day.

[Joe Matthew]

Look no further than Wal Mart. I don't know if the President's been inside a Wal Mart lately, but number one, we know a lot of people are trading down. So Walmart's pretty crowded place these days. And we got earnings from the company this morning. It was a beat and raise, but the company warned that higher costs are coming. Walmart's been eating the tariffs largely, and we're about to start getting shipments of goods that have higher tariffs on them from different parts of the world. Here the stock is higher at the moment, but separately announced this concern about the quarters ahead. Cliff, what would that mean for the President if this story continued to get worse?

[Venmo Advertiser (Alternate)]

Yeah, well, retail writ large, including Wal Mart, have been trying to manage the inflationary aspects of tariffs in the short term. They can't keep a reign on that forever. You know, if you look at Chief Economists, whether at associations or banks, they're basically saying that, saying that the impact, that is the tariff, inflationary impact will hit in the fourth quarter and the first quarter. That is not good for Donald Trump and his administration. And inflation has a negative impact now. It won't be huge, probably. We're not talking about 5 points, 5% greater inflation or 10%. We're talking a few points. But even then that will affect his approval ratings. Our estimate here at Ipsos, between one and three points. So if he's at 42, that takes them down to 40 or 39. So again, it's a difficult headwinds right now. Presently not a good place looking forward because of inflation. A pretty negative scenario from a political perspective.

[Joe Matthew]

Yeah, President's been talking about Thanksgiving at Walmart a lot. He actually referred to it as a study at one point. It's basically a promotion, right? It's a coupon. You get this bundled meal that is according to Walmart and the president is true. I think it was 25% cheaper or something like that than last year. But it also includes a lot less food. So it's maybe no Wonder. Would sending $2,000 checks to everybody in the country help?

[Venmo Advertiser (Alternate)]

Well, it wouldn't hurt, right? And I think that the very least give the Donald Trump administration credit for, for trying to align with the problem with the scenario. That is people are feeling the pinch or the squeeze of aff. I think it speaks to it, but I think the problems are greater than just that. Ultimately, our experience with this sort of pump priming done, not just the United States, but around the world, is that it has a temporary impact, but the macro conditions tend to swamp them out. So I would say yes, it's not bad, it's directionally correct, but probably too little too late to have an impact from a public opinion standpoint.

[Joe Matthew]

Always great to spend some time with you, Cliff. Thanks for coming back to see us. Cliff Young Ipsos. Of course you can also, if you're lucky, sit in his class at Texas A and M University's Bush School of Government and Public Service. Pretty interesting story, I guess the President will continue talking about affordability and grocery. And if you think about the two thousand dollar checks, you could buy a lot of groceries with that, right? I mean, as the President says, bacon, lettuce, tomato, eggs. Prices are down on eggs. He talks about that a lot. I'm getting hungry around here. Stay with us on balance of power. We'll have much more coming up after this.

[Venmo Advertiser]

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[Joe Matthew]

This is a curious moment, and maybe if you're a member of Congress, you would have felt a little bit better at this time if you were paying attention to the new stock trading ban that has yet to materialize. This is a big story in Washington this week that you probably haven't heard a lot about, with the Epstein stuff happening on one end of Pennsylvania Avenue and the Saudis on the other stock trading ban. We've had this conversation before and Republicans, as we read, are putting pressure on the speaker to advance legislation that would make it. Well, it would prohibit the idea of insider trading for lawmakers, which has a different wrinkle on Capitol Hill. They're in hearings that involve a lot of different companies and a lot of different policy that impact companies. And you obviously don't want your government representatives trading on that. You wouldn't think it was that controversial, but it was a big deal when this piece of legislation finally got a hearing this week in front of the Admin Committee. And Tim Burchett, the Republican from Tennessee, spoke to reporters when it was done. Listen, everybody talks about this place being a dadgum swamp. It's not a swamp. A swamp is something cool God created. It's a It filters water. Animal life lives and flourishes around it. This is a sewer.

[Rick Davis]

This is created by man and it needs to stop.

[Joe Matthew]

We've, you know, for years Congress has.

[Rick Davis]

Been using hardworking American taxpayers money to get rich. Dad gum.

[Joe Matthew]

It's got to stop. America knows what the heck's going on. Everybody wants to knock Pelosi.

[Rick Davis]

Heck, she's not even in the top 10.

[Joe Matthew]

Wow. Yeah. You know, there's a whole ETF track in the Pelosi trades. So I thought this was a swamp. It's not a swamp. Now I was feeling good about being in a cool place God created that filters water and allows animal life to flourish. Let's see how the panel feels about this. Rick Davis is with us, Bloomberg Politics contributor, Republican strategist and partner at Stone Court Capital. And look at that. Kristen Hahn is here as well, Democratic strategist and partner at ROC Solutions. Great to have you both here. Rick, you can't, you can't beat a good Tim Burchett line like that. But I'm just curious your thoughts on this and why it is so controversial on Capitol Hill.

[Rick Davis]

Nice to hear a Southern accent on the show every now and then. And Tim's right. I mean, lamps are nice. This used to be one in Washington and we built a sewer right on top of it. And that's called Capitol Hill. Look, this is a bipartisan thing. Democrats, Democrats and Republicans have been complaining about this. The lack of implementation of the current ethics rules governing stock trades and, and, and yet leadership, whether it was Pelosi or Johnson or any of his predecessors have really ignored this, not taken it seriously. But the door is getting busted down. I mean, like these Republicans and Democrat backbenchers, non leadership types have taken control of the chamber.

[Andrew Garbarino]

Chamber.

[Rick Davis]

They shoved over a huge bill to release the Jeffrey Epstein files and now they're on a warpath and are even talking about doing a discharge petition on this one if, if they aren't given.

[Joe Matthew]

A vote on the floor.

[Rick Davis]

So my guess is that Johnson's picked a few fights, too many to control this Congress and now he's got a divided Congress. And it's not ours versus these, it's leadership versus everybody else.

[Joe Matthew]

Yeah. Wow. By the way, I believe it's Anna Paulina Luna who's behind that discharge petition. So the walls may be closing in here for Speaker Johnson. Kristen, we're going to try to play a Tim Burchett cut like that every day just to make everybody smile. But while we're sitting here in the swamp or sewer, depending on what you want to call it, can Speaker Johnson withstand the forces of nature here?

[Kristen Hahn]

I think it's really interesting. You know, Rick, I'm from Texas. I can bust out a Texas accent if you'd like.

[Andrew Garbarino]

Everyone's home.

[Kristen Hahn]

We're on the table together. But no, I think, you know, they got a taste of what it's like to be successful with a discharge petition. And Congressman Luna has this one. I will add a few little nuances here. This is hugely popular with the American people. I think it pulls it like 90% across the board, Republicans and Democrats. There are some complications, though, and I can tell you that a lot of the members really don't like it. And you know, if you're looking at this from, you know, when you, when you decide to run for Congress and there are a lot of restrictions what you can and can't do. This is one more of those. So, you know, say if, if you have a child, you're a member of Congress and their grandparents pass down some stocks to them, you know, they have to sell those within 180 days. It's a, it's another barrier to entry. Not to say that nothing should be done, but I think that there are a lot more mixed feelings behind the scenes about this than, than a lot of the members are saying out loud because they know how popular it is with the American people.

[Joe Matthew]

Well, that's true. And boy, we should note there, there was a stock act already. There is a set of rules here for lawmakers to follow. Rick, how come that's not enough?

[Rick Davis]

Well, they held a hearing on this yesterday. That's part of what has percolated all the press interest in this hearing, by the way, that Johnson was not allowing anybody to attend. I mean, he was trying to stop the hearing until he finally let you know, Fitzpatrick and Burchette and others, you know, take, take it on. And, and basically it's, it is a set of ethics regulations that are really not effective. And what they really want to do is just basically say you can't trade individual stocks. You want ETFs, you want to trade on the Pelosi ETF, no problem. But when you start picking stocks, you betray the fact that every major issue and some in a confidential nature pass through that chamber. And you can't recuse yourself itself on everything because that's basically what you would have to do if you see the kinds of confidential information that goes through the Congress. And so rather than worry about the conflicts, just take them out. Take out individual stock trades. The current ethics regulations do not require that. And that's really the key crux of this bill.

[Joe Matthew]

There is something called the unusual Whales Subversive Democratic Trading etf. This is real. The ticker symbol is Nance. Nancy. This is for Nancy Pelosi. Kristen, this is actually, this is real. It mirrors trades that have been recorded by Democrats, the trading activities of Democratic members of Congress in the last year. It is up 12% in the last five years. If you followed the trades of Nancy Pelosi and Democrats in the House House, you would be up 78%. It's now trading above $44. This is obviously some kind of a game here, Kristen, that people are having fun with and you know, the Nance ticker symbol and all that. But a lot of stock investors in the Capitol members themselves say this is part of their income because they don't make as much money in some cases as they think they should. What do you members actually think of this?

[Kristen Hahn]

I mean, I think there's been a lot of coverage of that. You know, I think, you know, members of Congress, it is, you know, the, they're, the level that they make. It's in the high almost 200,000, which is a lot of money. But they also have to, you know, pay for out of their own pocket places to stay in Washington D.C. now, I don't want to be, you know, apologists for everybody there, there. It's very difficult to figure out, you know, the rules and the ethics violations and a lot of times they're not enforced. So, you know, I, I understand that something needs to be done with these members as far as enforcing all of this, but there are challenges to being a member of Congress if you're not independently wealthy already, which is a problem.

[Joe Matthew]

Yeah, Cece just put up the Nance chart in the clutch. Incredible. Ed reminds us this compares with an 11% one year gain in the S&P 500. You would have beat the market, Rick, if you followed Nance up 12%. Is this the problem?

[Rick Davis]

Yeah, I think it is part of the problem. And, and members tend to look the other way when, you know, some of the more scandalous things happen where you have a committee member who's seeing confidential information trades on it and you know, it tends to get some swept under the ethics rug. I think one of the tactics that Brian Fitzpatrick is talking about is actually, since we know it, start listing all the members trades when they happen. I mean, you know, so if you really want to make a living at it and you need extra capital, then you won't mind all the taxpayers seeing exactly what you're up to. So those guys who walk out of hearings and trade on the information, just make it public.

[Joe Matthew]

No problem. Here you go. Rip the covers off the bed. Rick Davis, Kristin Hahn. This was a great conversation and one that's right down the middle on Bloomberg, the true intersection here of Washington and Wall Street. We'll let you know what happens to that legislation as it makes its way potentially to the floor. I'm Joe Matthew in Washington. Thanks for being with us. A great hour. On balance of Power only on Bloomberg. Radio. Stay with us on Balance of Power. We'll have much more coming up after this.

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[Joe Matthew]

YouTube One of the big questions we've had about in video this week is the transfer of its technology to not only Middle Eastern nations, but of course, eventually or not China. The company's earnings report did not show sales of the 20 chips in China, and we knew that would be the case because there have been no export licenses talked about here. When it comes to advanced chips like Blackwell chips, which the president had floated at one point potentially selling to China. Michelle, this is something that's not going to go away anytime soon. The president is selling these chips to Saudi Arabia and there are concerns, of course, about them getting into the wrong hands.

[Kristen Hahn]

Right.

[Joe Matthew]

And while These chips and F35 technology and everything that else, everything else that came up this week as we're looking at these Saudi tentative deals. Absolutely. We talked about it with Denver Riggleman just yesterday. As a matter of fact, the former Republican congressman has his eyes on this creep of technology. Here's what he told us on Bloomberg.

[Andrew Garbarino]

Regardless of the relationships you have to have for certain strategic goals or objectives, you have to look at the government itself.

[Joe Matthew]

But you also have to look at.

[Andrew Garbarino]

What happens with something called fme, foreign material exploitation. And the fact is, if we're providing.

[Joe Matthew]

Chips or F35s, we're providing technology, advanced technologies. And the Russians are there also with their technologies, they can exploit what we.

[Andrew Garbarino]

Have without us having insight into that.

[Joe Matthew]

It's a concerning prospect. And it's where we start our conversation with Congressman Andrew Garbarino, the Republican from New York's 2nd district, who serves on not only financial services but also Homeland Security, where in fact he is chair. And that's why this is central to the conversation that we're having. Mr. Chairman, welcome back to Bloomberg TV and Radio. It's great to see you. Do you share Denver Riggleman's concerns when we talk about multibillion dollar deals with the likes of Saudi Arabia, knowing that China built a good amount of Saudi Arabia's Internet infrastructure and there are worries about this getting into the wrong hands? Do you share them?

[Andrew Garbarino]

Well, absolutely. It's always a concern when we develop great technology here and then we export it. It's always a concern that it gets into the wrong hands because that's what, that's what the bad guys do. So I'm always concerned that the good work that we do here falls in the wrong hands, which is why we have to be extra vigilant in making sure that we protect our critical infrastructure here at home to protect against these foreign actors if they get, if they get access to this technology.

[Joe Matthew]

Mr. Chairman, I know among the things that you're working on in this space is looking at Anthropic and their concerns that there was a Chinese hack of their AI technology. I'm wondering where do we stand on that? Have you seen the evidence of that case?

[Andrew Garbarino]

Well, we haven't. The federal government has not determined. FBI since they have not determined if it is a, if it was a Chinese back back to tech. Anthropic did come out in its report saying that China was behind it. What I do know is it was the most aggressive use of AI in a cyber attack. Attack. We've seen AI being used by the bad guys in these in cyber attacks for four years now. But this was the most aggressive use and it is very concerning that it could just get worse. So one thing I've been talking about with the private sector, you know, 85% of our critical infrastructure is held by the private sectors controlled by the private sector. Is if the bad guys are going to be using AI to attack us, we should be, we should be using AI implementing that in our cyber defenses because you know it is going to, it's going to be impossible to fight this aggressive use of AI and cyber attacks by just human intervention and defense alone. So we have to, we have to step up our game.

[Joe Matthew]

You need AI to beat AI. It brings us to speaking of cyber and AI, some of the legislation that you're putting forth. Mr. Chairman, the pillar act supports state and local cyber programs as well as strengthening cyber resilience against state sponsored threats Threats act that would create a joint task force focused on external threats the likes of which we're discussing right now. Does this argue with the type of deal that we were just discussing between the US and Saudi Arabia or help to make it possible?

[Andrew Garbarino]

Well, I think the second bill you mentioned, the one dealing with the foreign state actors is hugely important because it's actually going to help us streamline our response to these, these attacks by other, our foreign adversaries. You know, we kind of did this after 911 where we had intelligence agencies that were not talking to each other and then after 911 we made them so they had to talk to each other and they had to share information. Now our cyber border is a new battlefield and making sure that the FBI, cisa, other federal agencies are sharing information and sharing it also with the private sector. You know, so we can, we can protect against these foreign adversaries, especially when it comes to attacks on our critical infrastructure. That is, that is something that why I'm so proud this bill passed. Hopefully the Senate moves it so you know, we can streamline our response to the thousands and thousands and thousands of attacks that we see every day from foreign actors in the likes, from the likes of China, Russia, you know, North Korea and the other, the other bill, the Pillar act. You know, federal government has a lot of money, they have a lot of expertise. But our state and local governments, municipalities, counties, mayors, the cities, they don't have the money, they don't have the expertise even though they also control a lot of critical infrastructure. So this grant program is a continuation of one that's been going on will help these, these local governments stay protected because they need it. And I think this year we've said 44 states have been hit by, by cyber attacks. So we need to prepare them so they can defend against these cyber attacks as well. So very proud of the two pieces of legislation that passed passed the house this week.

[Joe Matthew]

Mr. Chairman. Let's talk about the other side of the equation too. Of course as you're aware the debate has been raging this year between the strict national security hawks and those who are taking kind of a more pro tech stance. Some in the White House kind of are trying to find that nice middle ground there. You mentioned protections earlier. I'm wondering how does this apply to the TikTok case? We haven't heard movement on that. The Chinese of course said that they're ready to resolve, help resolve the issue. Where do you think that will fall? I know you, you voted for the divestor van the so called bill.

[Andrew Garbarino]

Well I mean it's again you know, we're waiting for information like you said it's going to be interesting to see who's controlling the algorithm, who's controlling the data. This is all questions that we haven't gotten the answers to yet. And I understand that a lot of people want TikTok to continue, but I have major concerns over what happens with that data. So I'm going to save judgment on what I think of the final deal until I get some more information on it. But I am very concerned about who controls the data, who controls the algorithms, and it's something that myself and my colleagues are keeping a close eye on. But you know, data protection across, across the board, all these new technologies that are coming, the use of AI, I am a major proponent of including when Congress acts, when the federal government acts on laws or regulations, there should be some sort of cybersecurity protections built into, into these regulations, into these requirements, into the language. So we have that extra protection for our people.

[Joe Matthew]

Congressman, tomorrow's big day for New York here in Washington. As you well know, the mayor elect, Zoran Mamdani is going to be in the Oval Office for a meeting that he requested. The President has been talking about this on Truth Social and just now the press secretary, Caroline Levitt, said that a communist is going to be coming to the White House tomorrow. What do you hope comes from this meeting? What's this all about?

[Andrew Garbarino]

Well, you know, I appreciate the President taking the time to meet with the new mayor, the mayor elect, but my main focus is as a New Yorker and Chairman of the Homeland Security Committee, is that New York remains a safe place to live, visit and work. And I hope the President makes clear to the Mayor that his past anti police comments, his past anti police rhetoric is not going to, it's not going to last. It's not going to exist. He can't act this way as mayor. And if and if he does anything that makes New York less safe, the President has my support in doing what he needs to do in making sure it stays safe. You know, next year is the 25th anniversary. Yeah, look, you know, this is an important topic. Next year's the 25th anniversary. 9 11. You know, this was, you know, Department of Homeland Security, the Committee of Homeland Security. This started after 9 11. So I'm not going to sit by and the President not going to sit by. If the mayor decides that his policies are going to make New York less safe, you know, we're not going to, we're not going to put up with it. And you know, I hope the President makes that painfully clear tomorrow in the meeting. You know, I'm sure they'll discuss other things, but my number one concern is making sure New York City remains a safe place.

[Joe Matthew]

Well, we'll be keeping our eyes and ears on this. Congressman Andrew Garberino, Republican from New York, second Chair of the Homeland Security Committee. It's great to have you with us, Mr. Chairman. Thanks for your insights today on Bloomberg TV and radio. Thanks for listening to the Balance of Power podcast. Make sure to subscribe if you haven't already, Apple, Spotify or wherever you get at your podcasts. And you can find us live every weekday from Washington, D.C. at noontime [e-mail] Pro drivers live for race day, but for small business owners, every day is race day. That's why going pro with Lenovo Pro matters one on one advice IT solutions and customized hardware powered by Intel Core Ultra processors. Keep your business on the right track. Business goes pro with Lenovo Pro Sign up for [e-mail] Pro.

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[Joe Matthew]

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