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- [00:00]
A
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B
Bloomberg Audio Studios Podcasts Radio news. You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch us live weekdays at noon and 5pm Eastern on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts or watch us live on YouTube.
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A
As we keep the beat on geopolitics and some important developments over the Christmas holiday that you might just now be hearing about, including US Strikes against Nigeria, striking ISIS targets in Nigeria. And now, of course, this potential meeting. That sounds like, well, I should say potential breakthrough. It sounds like a real meeting. President Zelensky will be at Mar a Lago on Sunday to meet with President Trump. And we cover all of this with Laura Davison, Bloomberg Washington Deputy bureau chief, who's with us now in our Washington bureau. Laura, let's start with Nigeria and what was behind this? The president, the administration has been talking about attacks against Christians in Nigeria. Is there any evidence that this has been an issue? And who did we target?
- [01:29]
C
So the targets were these Islamic State sites in Nigeria in the northern part of the country. Trump, for several weeks and really months now has been talking about persecution of Christians, attacks on Christians in the country, and that Islamic State is particularly targeting them. The Nigerian government has pushed back strongly on the notion that Christians in particular are being persecuted, saying this is, you know, that yes, terrorism is a problem, but that both Muslims and Christians are being affected here. And the Nigerian, the Nigerian government actually worked in concert with the US Government in these strikes and are working for more strikes to come, as we heard from the defense secretary, Pete Hegseth.
- [02:05]
A
Okay, so ISIS then remains a problem for Nigeria, but the attacks on Christians is where they draw the line. Is that fair to say?
- [02:10]
D
Yes.
- [02:11]
C
Yes. So they're sort of, they're united in sort of the actions, the military actions that are being taken. But the motivation behind them is where the US And Nigerian, Nigerians are singing from different songbooks.
- [02:20]
A
Yeah. Multiple strikes. The president said we don't have a readout on exactly what was targeted, how many aircraft were involved, et cetera. From the Pentagon.
- [02:28]
C
Correct. We have very few details on exactly what the sites are, you know, who may have been killed, the number of sites and, you know, what weapons were used, etcetera so that's all very cloudy, really. All we have is essentially a tweet of social media posts from the president saying this happened, at least something.
- [02:43]
A
I don't know what we're going to hear about Ukraine this weekend, Laura, but it's pretty important. It looks like Volodymyr Zelensky will be in Florida to sit down with President Trump at Mar? A Lago. Trump has said unless there's an agreement at hand, unless there's a deal here, he has no reason to meet with Zelensky. Does that mean we're on the verge of a breakthrough?
- [02:59]
C
It would certainly suggest that there's some forward momentum. What we heard from even Zelensky, you know, a couple days ago, was that he was not optimistic for a deal. He said it didn't sound like the Russians wanted to negotiate and that there had been all of these, you know, these talks between US Officials and Ukrainian officials and US Officials and Russian officials, and just it seemed like, no, we're at a stalemate. There was no progress being made. Something must have changed over the past couple days. And now Zelenskyy's headed to the US So it's not clear from the Russian side that they are really, know, open to negotiating, open to this deal. You know, they are still wanting some of these land territories that, you know, that Ukraine still controls.
- [03:33]
A
Amazing stuff. Laura, thank you very much. Laura Davison will likely be editing stories about that visit come the end of the weekend. So it's something that we'll keep a close eye on. And we want to add the voice of John Herbst, the former US Ambassador to Ukraine and Uzbekistan is with us right now on Bloomberg TV and radio. Mr. Ambassador, it's great to see you. Will President Zelensky be walking into the lion's den here in Mar a Lago or a room where he could, in fact, strike a peace deal?
- [04:00]
D
Joe, thanks for having me on. It does seem that there has been substantial progress in negotiations between the United States and Ukraine, which is not surprising because Zelenskyy has said yes to five or six Trump proposals for ending the fighting was Putin has rejected every single one of those. What's not clear is what the Russians are up to.
- [04:24]
A
Well, that's been a big question all along. And as Mitch McConnell has said not that long ago. Putin's been playing President Trump since January. Do you see that being the case? Or could he, in fact, be about, about to turn position on this as well?
- [04:42]
D
We've seen Trump in the nine, excuse me, nearly 11 months. Actually, it is over 11 months now since he's returned to the White House. Take periods where he's been very tough on Zelinsky and then periods when he been moderately tough, only moderately tough on Putin. And since he put the sanctions on Ross Neft and Luke Oil, which was what, sometime in middle of October, he began to put pressure on Zelensky. And that's continued. But Zelensky, while conceding some things, has also stood tough on others. And what we seem to have, what seems to have happened in the last few days is Zelensky's agreement to perhaps hand over not to the Russians, but to demilitarize economic zone areas in western Donbas which are strategically valuable, which the Russian army has been unable to take. But he's insisted, and this is new, and the US Seems to have agreed that Russia must pull back equally from areas that hit controls in Donbass. And what Zelensky has insisted on, it seems that the US has agreed that there has to be serious military forces. So we're not talking about peacekeepers from, from the global south in that area to prevent future Russian aggression. And what Trump seems to have conceded on, too, which Zelensky has long sought, are clear guarantees, circular guarantees from the United States ratified by the Senate. And now according to what's in the media, which we can't be certain is accurate, but if it is accurate, it's interesting, the US Side has seemed to agree. So we've seen some serious movement by both Ukraine and the United States in the past week or so. Again, what we have not is any indication of Moscow's willingness to compromise.
- [06:31]
A
What you mentioned what could happen in the Donbas, and I realize that could take on a couple of different forms. Is a demilitarized zone off the table at this point?
- [06:42]
D
Well, it seems that the demilitarized zone is very much on the table. But the Russians had insisted and still have not changed its position. Ukraine gives to them territory the Russian army has been unable to take, and the Russians give nothing back in return in Donbass. What Zelensky has insisted and of apparently the United States has agreed is if Ukrainian forces are moving back in western Donbas, the Russian forces have to move back at least a comparable amount and keep that as a demilitarized territory. So that's a serious concession. And again, if the US has agreed, there have to be troops, serious troops in that area, in that demilitarized zone, international troops to prevent further Russian aggression. That would seem to be another element of compromise from Team Trump.
- [07:34]
A
All right, so you sit down at Mar a Lago and talk peace. Does that mean that Vladimir Putin also needs to sit down with President Trump? Will they get back to this idea of meeting in Hungary?
- [07:47]
D
Well, I don't know where they'll meet, but I assume if Zelensky and Trump are satisfied after their meeting, then there'll be some form of reach out to the Kremlin. Now, according to the media, Kirill Dmitriev, who's the Putin envoy, was in Florida this past week. And so he apparently has reported back on roughly the terms that have been reached between the US And Ukraine. And the Russian reaction has been interesting. They haven't rejected it. They praised Trump's efforts to achieve peace. They said they're willing to continue to negotiate. But things Putin said as recently as a week ago would not allow the sorts of ideas that Zelensky and Trump seem to be agreeing on to be accepted by the Kremlin. But again, we'll see. Putin has been meticulous about trying to avoid annoying Trump, albeit without conceding one little bit. At some point, he may not be able to do the two things together.
- [08:48]
A
To what extent is President Zelensky trying to head off the constant communication between Steve Witkoff and Moscow, whether he's talking to Putin or his lieutenants? Is that why he needs to get to Florida right now?
- [09:00]
D
Well, I think that, you know, the plan that was given to Zelensky by the Secretary of the Army Driscoll, in the middle of November was far too favorable to the aggressive to Putin and reflecting, I think, Kremlin influence on parts of the Trump team. But that was corrected, you know, within a few days when Rubio met with the Ukrainians in Geneva. Rubio and Wytkoff met with the Ukrainians in Geneva. And since then, we've seen a back and forth of ideas and we've seen Ukraine being willing to compromise, but not to, not to make fatal mistakes like simply giving Ukraine highly strategic land in Western Donbas without security guarantees, without any requirements from the Kremlin to actually make peace. And again, the deal that has been emerging, again, we only have some of the details. We don't have enough suggest that the United States has taken account of this. And this reflects, again, Ukraine's willingness, ability, abilities, Alinsky's ability to advocate for their positions and Team Trump's willingness to listen to them. And that's a good thing.
- [10:08]
A
Really fascinating. What does China make of all of this? What is President Xi watching in Ukraine?
- [10:13]
D
Well, she is watching intently. American policy in this war. He doesn't want Russia to Lose. And by lose I mean Russia not being able to take effective political control of Ukraine, which is why she has provided significant support to Putin, albeit trying to avoid American red lines, like by sending weapons systems to you, to Russia. But he wants us a to be, he wants to see America allow Putin to win in Ukraine because that would be a sign of great weakness, which Xi would, you might say, interpret as meaning he has a free hand to go after Taiwan.
- [10:49]
A
We are spending some time with former ambassador to Ukraine in Uzbekistan, John Herbst ahead of this meeting at Mar a Lago on Sunday between President Zelensky and Donald Trump. You know, Trump said he would end this war on his first day. Ambassador, is there a chance he ends it in his first year?
- [11:07]
D
No. The only way this will end is if Putin understands the United States is determined that Trump is determined to achieve his stated goal of a durable peace, not a peace which enables Putin to come back for more of Ukraine in six months or 12 months or 36 months. But the only way to do that is to make it extremely painful for Putin to continue because for Putin to have effective political control of Ukraine, he has to take a great deal of more of Ukrainian territory, including Kiev and the Dnipro and Odessa, which means a lot more fighting. The only way that Putin understands he cannot achieve those objectives is if Trump puts serious pressure on him in two, four, three forms. Three forms. One, greater sanctions. More of what Trump did in October, meaning the sanctions on Lukoil and Rossnft, two major Russian oil firms. Two, major weapons supplies to Ukraine. Under Trump's view, it doesn't have to be paid for by the American taxpayer, but the Ukrainians and the Europeans will pay for it. Three, the United States should work with our European allies and making sure the $300 billion roughly of frozen Russian state assets in the international financial system go to Ukraine. One of the bad proposals that were prevented presented to Zelensky in the middle of November reflecting undue Russian influen was that Ukraine would get 100 billion of those assets and the US and Russia would get the majority of those assets. That, that, that was not a good look. That suggested to Putin that the Trump team was not going to be tough.
- [12:46]
A
With the potential of much more fighting ahead. Former Ambassador John Herbst, we thank you for the insights. Stay with us on balance of Power. We'll have much more coming up after this.
- [12:58]
E
Support for the show comes from public on public. You can build a multi asset portfolio of stocks, bonds, options, crypto and now generated assets which allow you to turn any idea into an investable index with AI. It all starts with your prompt. From renewable energy companies with high free cash flow to semiconductor suppliers growing revenue over 20% year over year. You can literally type any prompt and put the AI to work. It screens thousands of stocks, builds a one of a kind index and lets you back test it against the S&P 500. Then you can invest in a few clicks. Generated assets are completely customizable and based on your thesis, not someone else's. Go to public.com market and earn an uncapped 1% bonus when you transfer your portfolio. That's public.com market paid for by Public.
- [13:49]
A
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A
Complete disclosures available@public.com disclosures you're listening to.
- [14:09]
B
The Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch us live weekdays at noon and 5pm Eastern on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station. Just say Alexa playback Bloomberg 11:30 Want.
- [14:28]
A
To add the voice of Jane Harmon, the former Democratic Congresswoman, who of course was ranking member on the Intelligence Committee. Jane, Merry Christmas. It's great to have you. Glad you could join us today. I want to just step back to this looming meeting with President Zelensky. Are we going to see a breakthrough this week, or is Lucy about to pull out the football again?
- [14:48]
B
Put me down as a pessimist, Joe, and a super pessimist about the meetings with Israel. I'm a pessimist because I don't see that Putin will be satisfied with this deal. I give Zelensky enormous credit for working on it and for it seems to me, so far as I can tell, ridding his top levels of government of corruption. I mean, that was a big blow to him. But and I give the Ukrainian people even more credit for putting up with four years of war. They are Ukraine's strongest weapon, the Ukrainian heart. But what does Putin get out of this? Maybe, you know, something like North Korea, South Korea with some kind of a police border. He doesn't get much new territory. He certainly doesn't get an open door to take over Europe, which is something he might be after. And I don't see it. Mitch McConnell said that Putin has been playing Trump since January. I agree with Mitch McConnell, but the other point here is that Europe has now promised some Additional aid. Imagine this, the defense Congress passed. Congress did something contains hundreds of millions of dollars of aid for Ukraine. So if Trump lets that go forward, please lets that go forward and doesn't do any kind of stuff to our intelligence capacity that really helps Ukraine keep its at least keep parity with Russia. This can go on longer and maybe Russia will be worn down more. Let me talk about the Middle east for a minute because I don't see anything going on there. Bibi Netanyahu just announced new Israeli housing in the West Bank. Now that's not Gaza, but it is enormously provocative. He has said he will not, will not recognize two states. And I thought a cornerstone of increased involvement or ongoing involvement by the Arab neighborhood was a pass to two states. So even if there is some kind of a police force type thing, as your commentator pointed out, Hamas is not gone. Hamas won't want to be gone. And I just don't see how that gets anywhere there. I'm a really super pessimist.
- [16:59]
A
All right, so we've got two pessimistic cards here. You said that Putin's been playing President Trump since January. Is Netanyahu also playing President Trump?
- [17:11]
B
I think so, yes. I think that Trump is tougher with him than former President Trump Biden was ever able to be. And Trump has still kept his strong support from some many in the pro Israel community. But I think that Netanyahu is a, is a hard line conservative would understate it a hard line, maybe reactionary Israeli and hasn't budged here. He did get the, the good news is and Trump helped with this enormously got the prisoners back and got the sadly the bodies of the deceased back. That's great. But I don't see Hamas willingly move out and I don't see major efforts to improve the quality of the Palestinian leadership such as it is. So I don't see how you put money into developing I guess what the Trump's son in law wants to be some new beachfront property. If there is no stability, I just don't see that moving. And one more thing, Joe, let's remember that also in the Middle east is isis. Isis. We bombed isis. We the US in Syria recently. We're bombing ISIS now in Nigeria. But ISIS is not just a training group on the ground. ISIS is now all over the Internet radicalizing people like those in Australia and maybe some in the United States and Europe in the near future. So it seems to me if I were President Trump, he hasn't called me lately. But if he did, I would Say, please focus on this, Mr. President. It is the most imminent threat to U.S. security.
- [18:48]
A
Well, you brought this up to us. Maybe. It was two weeks ago. Jane Harmon. And sure enough, the headlines on Christmas, US Forces striking ISIS targets in northwestern Nigeria. The president wrote on Truth Social, and he had a lot to say on Christmas on social media. Merry Christmas to all, including the dead terrorists, of which there will be many more if their slaughter of Christians continues. There have been a lot of questions about whether this slaughter of Christians is in fact taking place in countries like Nigeria or even South Africa, which the President had first brought forth in a meeting in the Oval Office with the. The Prime Minister, the President of South Africa. We've not received details on this. The military conducted multiple strikes, according to the President, but we haven't heard anything else. Jane, what are we getting into in Nigeria?
- [19:38]
B
Well, I don't think we know. The government has pushed back and said there is no slaughter of Christians. I'm sure some Christians are being killed similarly in South Africa, which is not to praise those governments, but it is to say that this seems to be another campaign pledge, you know, some kind of pro Christian white supremacy agenda. Although that would be tricky in Africa. Why don't we have a strategy for our foreign policy? Why don't we focus on the. On the real threats, the imminent threats to the United States. We've degraded a lot of our intelligence community assets in the United States, and that worries me enormously. And recent articles just talked about how Russia has been able to degrade and invade the cyber protections in Europe. So all of that leads me to believe that people are going to be radicalized on the Web. ISIS has a very sophisticated use now of technology, and this is where we need to go, and this is what we need to beef up. And so did these random actions around the globe. Take Venezuela. If I could just rant on that for a second. Nobody is defending Maduro, but nobody was defending the bad guy next door in Honduras either. He was convicted in US Courts and he has now been pardoned. And the new person that Trump supported has just been elected in Honduras. Are we now doing regime change in South America? Why?
- [21:06]
A
Well, let me ask you. I've only got one minute left, Jane, and I'm loathe to cut you off. Is if we're striking targets on the ground in Nigeria, will Venezuela be next?
- [21:17]
B
Who knows? I mean, I don't. I don't know. We. Trump has said he might. The sad part. Let me just win my 12 seconds. Where is Congress? Where is Congress? Congress just Last week defeated two resolutions to assert itself on party line votes. Go figure. Why did Congress come back from its long close for business vacation or that's not fair, but close for business action? Why did it come back down in history?
- [21:49]
A
Well, they've taken a couple of swings at the ball with war powers acts and they haven't gone anywhere yet. Jane, I'm delighted to talk to you. Happy New Year. Let's get back together in 2026 and see where we are.
- [21:59]
B
You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch us live weekdays at noon and 5pm Eastern on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station. Just say Alexa play Bloomberg 11:30.
- [22:18]
A
As we look back on the year and look ahead to the new year, we wanted to spend some time with Erik Larson, Bloomberg's legal reporter, who we have spent so much time with talking about the Supreme Court over the past year. And we're still waiting for the big one, of course, the Supreme Court's ruling on President Trump's tariff regime. And Eric is with us now from world headquarters in New York. It's great to see you, Eric. We understand this could be days or weeks away, right? This is an imminent ruling.
- [22:44]
F
Yeah, that's correct. I think some people were even expecting we might get it before I get the decision before the holidays. But no, we, we are expecting it in the next weeks, potentially very soon. No word on exactly when that will be though, of course.
- [23:00]
A
Yes. So obviously when it does, first of all, it'll be seismic in the political world, but also when it comes to markets, this could come down a couple of different ways. Right, Eric, there are big questions about whether there will be refunds that are, that are mandated as part of this ruling, whether a one off or something that could take years to repay or how could this take shape?
- [23:22]
F
Yeah, you're right. That's going to be the big question. If in fact the tariffs are ruled illegal. I think that all of these companies that have been paying these billions of dollars in tariffs so far are going to demand them back. Some of them have already gone to court to set the stage for that, should it happen. And folks who have been watching this closely will recall that when there were the oral arguments at the Supreme Court not so long ago, they signaled that this conservative leaning court could be leaning toward overturning the tariffs. You know, of course, they didn't say outright what they were thinking, but this is just based on the questions from the judges. So I think people are preparing for that eventuality. Of course, President Trump has also signaled there are other options to try to get other types of tariffs in there through other legal maneuvers, which also could end up being challenged in court. But folks are definitely preparing for the eventuality that they are overturned and they'll demand this money back.
- [24:14]
A
Well, I'm glad you mentioned that, because the White House has made it clear that if the court strikes down the tariff regime on the IPA justification, that there will be another and maybe another other after that. But that would be preceded by an investigation or review. Right. So this. This could take months before they come back to the plate.
- [24:33]
F
Exactly. These other ways to put tariffs in place involve, as you said, investigations, and some of them have limits to how long they can last and how high they can be. So that's. It's not quite as easy as using IPA the way Trump has done. No president before him had used that law in that way. And the way that he did use it, as we, as we know, allowed him to put whatever amount of tariffs he want on any country he wants for as long as he wants. So that's the emergency power that these lawsuits are seeking to claw back, to say that that's not how the law was intended. All the other ways are just going to be more difficult for the president to put these tariffs back in place.
- [25:14]
A
I'm sure there's nothing else on the docket that rises to this level, Eric, but correct me if I'm wrong, is there anything else that we should be looking at in terms of the court's term next year?
- [25:23]
F
Yeah, there are some big ones. We still have a decision on birthright citizenship, that Trump is President Trump. Trump is trying to roll that back. Several courts ruled that that effort, that executive order limiting birthright citizenship was illegal. We heard arguments at the Supreme Court already. It's another one where there were signals that they might overturn Trump's executive order, but we don't know for sure. That's a huge one, involves citizenship for potentially thousands of people, babies. We also have some big decisions on state laws banning transgender athletes at school schools, campaign finance, and also voting rights, and whether or not efforts to make majority minority districts, voting districts are illegal. So there are some other big ones out there.
- [26:12]
A
Yeah, this is going to be a huge year with questions as well about the legality over the administration's approach to Venezuela. Eric, I don't want to conflate different beats here, because it does seem that if there will be any justification or. Or challenged, this would be in Congress, not in the courts. Is that right?
- [26:31]
F
That's my understanding. I certainly haven't heard of or seen any specific legal challenges around that yet. But it's also early days to see what happens there.
- [26:40]
A
God knows Eric Larson has learned you never know what you're going to be reporting the next day. It's great to see you, Eric. Happy New Year. Thank you for your great coverage in 2025. As always, stay with us on Balance of Power. We'll have much more coming up after this.
- [26:58]
E
Support for the show comes from Public on public you can build a multi asset portfolio of stocks, bonds, options, crypto and now generated assets which allow you to turn any idea into an investable index with AI. It all starts with your prompt. From renewable energy companies with high free cash flow to semiconductor suppliers growing revenue over 20% year over year, you can literally type any prompt and put the AI to work. It screens thousands of stocks, builds a one of a kind index and lets you back test it against the S&P 500. Then you can invest in a few clicks. Generated assets are completely customizable and based on your thesis, not someone else's. Go to public.com market and earn an uncapped 1% bonus when you transfer your portfolio. That's public.com market paid for by Public.
- [27:48]
D
Investing Brokerage Services by Open to the Public Investing Inc. Member FINRA and SIPC Advisory Services by Public Advisors, llc.
- [27:55]
A
SEC Registered Advisor.
- [27:57]
E
Generated Assets is an interactive analysis tool.
- [27:59]
D
Output is for informational purposes only and is not an investment recommendation or advice.
- [28:03]
A
Complete disclosures available@public.com disclosures.
- [28:09]
B
You'Re listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch us live weekdays at noon and 5pm Eastern on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts or watch us live on YouTube.
- [28:26]
A
When we come back to Washington in the new year. Lawmakers come crawling back from the holidays in a bruising debate over health care premiums that ended this year on Capitol Hill. They're going to be big questions and some fast work required if lawmakers are going to deal with the expiration of Obamacare subsidies, which by the way is just what, four days off right now. We go over the cliff when we hit the new year. And then of course, the matter of government funding. That'll be the end of January. If you've listened to this program, you know about this all the while two very important deadlines that really could help set the direction for the entire year in Washington when it comes to politics, maybe not just Washington, maybe the country when it comes to the midterm election cycle. That's where we start our conversation with our political panel, Bloomberg Politics contributor. Republican strategist Rick Davis is with us, partner at Stone Court Capital, alongside Democratic strategist Doug Farrar, former director for the Office of Public affairs, the ftc. Great to have both of you with us here. Rick, I don't know your thoughts on this as we look beyond January, but many have suggested that if there's no deal on health care reform, not only might the government close at the end of January, but that could in fact be the issue that tips a Republican majority into a Democratic one in the midterms. If politics is national, as you frequently say, will the midterms be decided next month?
- [29:53]
G
I actually think the midterms were decided last month. I really think that we lost the Republicans, lost the initiative on health care. We had a chance to get ahead of it and take away an issue for the Democrats. And, you know, when you look at the stack of debt that we've laid on through the one big beautiful bill, not a very popular bill to voters and not hardly sold by Republicans in the process, you know, we've laid ourselves bare. And so I think if the election were today, you know, you'd have a 40, 50 seat loss. So I, I think it can improve. But if the Republicans don't do something more aggressive on health care, it just gives Democrats way too big a handle to use to beat up, you know, House members and win seats next cycle.
- [30:43]
A
Yeah. Doug, do you agree were the midterms decided in December?
- [30:48]
H
Well, I'd like to agree, but I'm always a little nervous about the fortunes of my party. What I will say, though, is that the winds are clearly favorable for Democrats. I mean, they found an issue they can really campaign on and affordability. Obviously, the president does him and his party no favors in the way that they handle a lot of the cost issues in the economy, including health care. But, you know, there's lots of twists and turns left to come. What I will say, though, is I think it's time for the Democrats now to buckle down and not just say, okay, we want to make things more affordable, but show how they plan to do it. And I'll be looking to see which candidates in which races are able to articulate a really compelling policy agenda as they hope to take over at least the House and hopefully the Senate.
- [31:28]
A
Will you be watching New York Mayor Mamdani? He's going to be sworn in just about a week from now. Doug, does he have the playbook?
- [31:38]
H
Well, he's being incredibly well advised. He's got a great set of transition chairs, including Lina Khan, who's the real policy all star. Obviously, people like Senator Warren and Senator Sanders and others have been close to the transition, as was reported by the Times today. And I think what they're trying to do is figure out how to deliver on his agenda. And there are a lot of policy options that are available to him that don't necessarily require Albany or City Council to get involved because there's lots of really strong consumer protection and worker protection rules on the books that they can enforce and signal enforcement to businesses. So I think he's got a really good opportunity to hit the ground running.
- [32:15]
A
I'm not sure how to think about Mayor Mamdani, Rick, after that meeting with Donald Trump, he was going to be the foil, right? This was going to be the enemy of all Republicans for the next political cycle. But now they're, they're, they're shaking hands, laughing together, talking about affordability as if they are partners. Does that change the political prospects for Mamdani in New York?
- [32:38]
G
Well, it's certainly changed the political prospects for Stefanik in New York. I mean, basically that's knocked her out of the race. So he's already delivered a win for the governor at Stefanik's expense. Look, I think all this focus on him is relatively irrelevant. There's virtually nobody outside the boroughs of New York who cast their ballot based on what's happening inside the boroughs of New York. And so, yeah, it's going to be fun because a third of the entire media establishment resides in that jurisdiction. And so everybody's going to, to be watching what he does. But I know very few voters who are sitting there breathlessly holding their vote to see what he does and then make a decision. So, yeah, a lot of steam, but not a lot of fire.
- [33:28]
A
Interesting. You know, Doug, following the elections, the big question was, does Mamdani have the playbook for Democrats or is it in fact the two moderate governors in Mikey Sheryl and Abigail Spanberger and, and a lot of folks said all of the above that the Democratic Party is going to be successful in the midterm cycle and, well, in the next presidential election, it's going to have to keep growing the tent. Do you agree?
- [33:55]
H
I do in some ways, and I don't in others. I mean, I think you see Sherrill and, and Spanberger adopt some pretty progressive economic concepts from trying to freeze rates at the utilities in New Jersey under an emergency order to an effort to set up a public pbm, which is an entity that's a middleman in pharmaceutical products. In Virginia under Spanberger, I think there definitely needs to be a big tent with respect to sort of cultural and social presentation in different districts. Obviously, what works in Brooklyn is not necessarily going to be what works in Nebraska. But interestingly, there is a candidate running in Nebraska with a very similar economic concept to Mayor Mamdani, who's getting a lot of attention and potentially going to threaten the incumbent. So I do think the Democrats have found an affordability message with an economic populism frame, and now they just need to deliver on it. And that's one thing where Mayor Mamdani will be very relevant because he's set the bar very high, and I expect he'll deliver.
- [34:54]
A
Rick, where's the money going? We're looking at some doozy Senate races, right? Whether it's North Carolina, whether it's Texas, the races in California. We could see some new records this cycle. No?
- [35:09]
G
Yeah, I spent a little bit of time in Texas last week. And Republicans are really looking at what could be an incredibly confusing and also super expensive primary that then leads into an equally expensive general election. North Carolina, as you mentioned, historically a place where a lot of money spent. No question. It's going to be really important to Republicans there in order to sustain their majorities in the Senate. Anybody who thinks the Senate is an automatic Republican domination is wrong. They've got to think through what happens when the bottom falls out if Republican policies aren't widely accepted. And, you know, that's, I think, one of the missing elements. Democrats sort of, you know, kicked off this idea of reassessing their party. They didn't want to make it public because I'm sure it would hurt. But the Republicans have to be equally concerned right now. We have some of the highest retirements in history going on in party in power. Why would anybody want to retire if you think you're going to win reelection? And so the reality is this could be a rocky one, but there's no question fundraising and spending records are going to be set in this cycle.
- [36:26]
A
Are Democrats ready for it, Doug, in the financial department?
- [36:31]
H
I'd like to think so. I mean, obviously I was concerned to see the DNC not come out with their autopsy. And obviously there's still some, some ongoing infighting in the party. But at the end of the day, I think these folks want to beat Donald Trump. And while there may be some disagreements across issues like economics and, and other social and cultural issues, I think that you know the winds are favorable and that the donors will come off the sidelines. I also think you're going to see a lot of small dollar donation candidates do really well because I think people are really unhappy with the way in which very large and wealthy oligarchs are working with this administration to drive up costs for people. People are very, very mad and usually that generates a lot of attention and can generate a lot of small dollar donations supporting candidates who are more on the populist end of the party.
- [37:19]
A
Really, really interesting conversation, Doug. Thank you so much. Of course, Rick Davis. They'll be back with much more as we make our way into the New Year and I appreciate your insights as always. Our great panel, Rick Davis, Partner at Stone Court Capital Doug spent time at the FTC as Director for the Office of Public affairs, our Democratic strategist and great to have you both with us on this day after Christmas. Thanks for listening to the Balance of Power podcast. Make sure to subscribe if you haven't already at Apple, Spotify, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts. And you can find us live every weekday from Washington, D.C. at Noontime Eastern@Bloomberg.com these days it seems like AI agents are just about everywhere you turn, every field and every function. But without identity, you can't trust they'll serve your business instead of jeopardizing it. Fortunately, Okta helps you get identity right by securing your AI agents identities, giving you a single layer of control, a single standard of trust. So whether an AI agent supports a single user or your entire enterprise, with Okta you'll turn risk into opportunity. Secure every agent. Secure any agent. Okta secures AI. Tis the season for identity theft. This time of year most of us are checking off our holiday gift lists. But guess what? Identity thieves have lists too, and your personal information might be on them. Protect your identity with LifeLock. LifeLock monitors hundreds of millions of data points every second and alerts you to threats you could miss by yourself. Even if you keep an eye on your bank and credit card statements. If your identity is stolen, your own US based restoration specialist will fix it, guaranteed or your money back. And all plans are backed by the.
- [39:05]
D
Million dollar protection package.
- [39:07]
A
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