Balance of Power Podcast Summary

Episode: Zelenskiy Expects to Meet With Trump Sunday; US Strikes Targets in Nigeria
Date: December 26, 2025
Host(s): Joe Mathieu, Kailey Leinz (Bloomberg Washington Correspondents)

Episode Overview

This episode examines two critical international developments:

1. US Strikes on ISIS Targets in Nigeria—exploring the motivations and implications behind US military action.
2. Upcoming Meeting Between Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky and President Trump at Mar-a-Lago—analyzing whether this signals a potential breakthrough in the Ukraine war.

The show features in-depth discussions with Laura Davison (Bloomberg Washington Deputy Bureau Chief), John Herbst (former US Ambassador to Ukraine and Uzbekistan), Jane Harman (former Congresswoman and Intelligence Committee member), Erik Larson (Bloomberg legal reporter), and a panel on US politics with Rick Davis and Doug Farrar.

1. US Strikes ISIS Targets in Nigeria

What Happened & Why?

• Targets: Islamic State (ISIS) locations in northern Nigeria were struck by US forces, reportedly in collaboration with the Nigerian government.
• Motivation: President Trump emphasized attacks on Christians by ISIS, but the Nigerian government disputes claims that Christians are uniquely targeted, arguing that both Muslims and Christians suffer from terrorism.
• Execution & Details: Little official detail on the sites, casualties, or weapons used. The strikes were largely communicated via presidential social media (02:28).

Quote:

• "The Nigerian government actually worked in concert with the US Government in these strikes and are working for more strikes to come, as we heard from the defense secretary, Pete Hegseth."
  — Laura Davison (01:29)

Motivation Misalignment

• While both governments oppose ISIS, their underlying motivations differ:
  • US Focus: Protecting Christians.
  • Nigeria’s View: Terrorism is a shared threat, not uniquely anti-Christian.

Quote:

• "They're united in sort of the military actions... but the motivation behind them is where the US and Nigerians are singing from different songbooks."
  — Laura Davison (02:10)

2. Zelensky–Trump Meeting: Ukraine War Peace Talks

Context & Expectations

• Zelensky will meet Trump at Mar-a-Lago. Trump previously indicated he would only meet if there was potential for an agreement.
• Recent Shifts:
  • Until recently, Ukraine-Russia talks were at a stalemate.
  • Zelensky’s planned visit suggests ‘forward momentum’ in negotiations (02:58).

Quote:

• "What we seem to have...is Zelensky's agreement to perhaps hand over—not to the Russians, but to demilitarize—economic zone areas in western Donbas which are strategically valuable."
  — Ambassador John Herbst (04:42)

Key Proposals & Compromises Discussed

• Demilitarized Zones in Donbas:
  • Ukraine may withdraw from certain territories if Russia also pulls back (06:41).
  • Proposal for international (non-Russian) peacekeeping forces to enforce the zone.
• Security Guarantees:
  • Ukraine seeks US Senate-ratified security guarantees; Trump and the US may agree.
• Asset Redistribution:
  • Disputes over the $300 billion frozen in Russian assets: early drafts favored Russia/US, but Ukrainian advocacy led to revisions (11:06).

Quote:

• "If Ukrainian forces are moving back... the Russian forces have to move back at least a comparable amount and keep that as a demilitarized territory. So that's a serious concession."
  — Ambassador John Herbst (06:41)

Russia’s Stance

• Putin’s Response: Has not rejected recent US–Ukraine positions but "has been meticulous about trying to avoid annoying Trump, albeit without conceding one little bit." (07:46)

3. Global Implications & Perspectives

China’s Perspective

• President Xi closely watches US resolve in Ukraine.
• Xi wants Russia to avoid losing outright (so China isn’t emboldened to act against Taiwan).
• China provides "significant support to Putin" but avoids crossing US red lines—like arms shipments (10:12).

Europe & Aid

• Europe is set to provide additional aid to Ukraine; US domestic policies and Congress' actions remain critical.

Quote:

• "Europe has now promised some Additional aid. Imagine this, the Congress did something, contains hundreds of millions of dollars of aid for Ukraine."
  — Jane Harman (14:47)

4. Pessimistic Outlooks and Cautions

Ukraine

• Many guests are skeptical a breakthrough is imminent.
  • Jane Harman: "I'm a pessimist because I don't see that Putin will be satisfied with this deal." (14:47)

Middle East & Other Flashpoints

• Israel/Gaza: Jane Harman doubts substantive progress under Netanyahu and is critical of settlements, as well as the enduring threat of Hamas.
• ISIS: The group is morphing into an online radicalization engine ("not just a training group on the ground... now all over the Internet," 17:10).

US Foreign Policy Critique

• Harman lambasts the lack of strategic focus and possible political motives for "pro-Christian" strikes in Africa.
• Fears over degraded US intelligence assets and Russian cyber intrusions into Europe raised as major emerging threats (19:37).

5. Legal and Political updates

Supreme Court Watch

• Imminent Ruling: Awaited on Trump’s tariff regime.
  • If overturned, companies may seek refunds for billions in tariffs.
  • Alternative ways for Trump to reimpose tariffs could be slower, less powerful (24:14).
• Birthright Citizenship: Possible court action to overturn Trump’s executive order limiting it.

Quote:

• "No president before him [Trump] had used that law in that way... All the other ways are just going to be more difficult for the President to put these tariffs back in place."
  — Erik Larson (24:32)

Future Legislative Battles

• Obamacare Subsidies Expiry: Looms in 4 days; may define midterms if not resolved (28:25).
• Government Funding: Critical deadline at the end of January.
• Political Panel:
  • Rick Davis: Republicans have lost initiative on healthcare, risking big electoral losses (29:53).
  • Doug Farrar: Democrats must offer concrete affordability solutions beyond slogans (30:48).

6. Notable Quotes and Memorable Moments

• On US–Nigeria Attacks:

  • "[The motivation] is where the US and Nigerians are singing from different songbooks." — Laura Davison (02:10)

• On Ukraine Negotiations:

  • "Zelensky's agreement to perhaps hand over—not to the Russians, but to demilitarize—economic zone areas in western Donbas...but he's insisted...Russia must pull back equally." — John Herbst (04:42)
  • "Putin has been meticulous about trying to avoid annoying Trump, albeit without conceding one little bit." — John Herbst (07:46)

• On Prospects for Peace:

  • "The only way this will end is if Putin understands...Trump is determined to achieve his stated goal of a durable peace, not a peace which enables Putin to come back for more..." — John Herbst (11:06)

• On US Policy:

  • "Why don't we have a strategy for our foreign policy? ... Random actions around the globe." — Jane Harman (19:37)

Timestamps for Key Segments

• US strikes in Nigeria: 00:50–02:42
• Zelensky–Mar-a-Lago peace talks & US–Russia–Ukraine dynamics: 02:42–13:00
• Jane Harman on Ukraine, Israel, ISIS, US foreign policy: 14:27–21:48
• Erik Larson on Supreme Court, tariffs, birthright citizenship: 22:18–26:40
• Political panel on healthcare, Congressional elections: 28:25–37:19

Tone and Style

• The episode is analytical, cautious, and urgent, with experts providing sober assessments and measured skepticism about diplomatic breakthroughs and policy victories.
• Pessimism dominates, especially regarding Ukraine-Russia negotiations, US foreign policy coherence, and Congressional willpower.

Conclusion

The podcast delivers a nuanced, sometimes grim analysis of how US military, diplomatic, and legal moves are shaping global events—from Nigeria and Ukraine to the US Supreme Court and domestic politics. While faint optimism emerges regarding Ukraine–US peace alignment, skepticism about Russian cooperation and broader US strategy persists.

End Summary