Bankless Podcast Summary

Episode: 10 Crypto Predictions for 2026: $1M BTC, Wall Street Onchain & ETF Takeover

Guests: Matt Hougan & Ryan Rasmussen (Bitwise)
Date: December 16, 2025

Overview

This episode of Bankless features Matt Hougan and Ryan Rasmussen from Bitwise, delivering their highly anticipated ten predictions for crypto in 2026. The discussion covers the maturation of crypto markets, regulatory regimes, institutional adoption, the breakdown of legacy narratives, and the seismic changes unfolding in crypto finance. In classic Bankless fashion, the conversation is bold, data-rich, and both optimistic and critical, drawing on U.S. and global trends. The team also looks back at their 2025 predictions, grading their accuracy and reflecting on the lessons learned.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. 2025 Prediction Retrospective

• Previous predictions were reviewed and graded (B- average courtesy of ChatGPT).
  • Narrative and Regime calls: A-
  • Precise numbers: C+
• Major successes included calling new ATHs for ETH and Solana, the boom in crypto IPOs (Circle, Figure, Gemini), but missed the $200K BTC target due to unexpected macro shocks and regulatory delays (e.g., Clarity Act stalling in Congress).
  • Quote: "I would grade us decently well; all things considered, Matt what would you say?" – Ryan Rasmussen (03:33)
  • Quote: "I'd give us a gentleman C." – Matt Hougan (01:53)
• Bonus prediction of BTC > $1M and overtaking gold by 2029 is still “in play,” though gold's market cap moved up, raising the bar.
  • Quote: "I think gold racing far ahead is because central banks have been buying gold in size... Eventually that excess demand overwhelmed available supply... What’s happening in Bitcoin right now is that institutions via ETFs are buying more than 100% of the supply..." – Matt Hougan (08:29)

2. 2026 Prediction #1: The Four-Year Cycle is Dead

• BTC will break past ATHs and the four-year halving cycle is now obsolete.
• Institutional demand, regulatory clarity, and lower blow-up risk (thanks to ETFs & custodians) are overwhelming “halving” significance and other old-school drivers.
  • Quote: "I think the four-year cycle is dead. I think we're in something like a five-to-ten-year institutional cycle." – Matt Hougan (09:49)
  • Quote: "I just don't see it in 2026. I think it's up and to the right. There's too much institutional demand." – Matt Hougan (13:37)
  • Timestamp: 13:02–15:00

3. 2026 Prediction #2: BTC Will Be Less Volatile Than Nvidia

• As AI stocks like Nvidia become more volatile and BTC matures with increased institutional adoption, Bitcoin’s volatility will dip below that of major tech equities.
  • Quote: "We spend so much time at Bitwise talking to financial advisors... I could never invest in Bitcoin because it's too volatile... then we show them the volatility of Nvidia vs. Bitcoin..." – Ryan Rasmussen (16:56)
  • Timestamp: 16:56–18:52

4. 2026 Prediction #3: ETFs Will Buy >100% of New BTC, ETH, SOL Supply

• Explosive ETF demand (especially now that platforms like Merrill Lynch, Morgan Stanley are open to crypto ETFs) means funds will outstrip new issuance of major assets.
  • Current flows: BTC supply $15B; ETF inflows $22B+ (2025 numbers, expected to rise in 2026); trends echoed in ETH and SOL.
  • Quote: "The comparison to net new supply is because... crypto prices are set by supply and demand... ETF makes it so easy... people will just continually buy it and buy it and buy it." – Matt Hougan (27:31)
  • Timestamp: 21:54–29:40

5. 2026 Prediction #4: Crypto Equities Will Outperform Tech Equities

• Ongoing expansion of listed crypto businesses (ex. Coinbase, Circle, Figure, etc.). Many investors still treat them as highly risky, which creates outperformance opportunities as real business models flourish.
  • Quote: "Wall Street just writes them off and that's a huge mistake and that's why we continue to see the growth of these companies surprise Wall Street..." – Ryan Rasmussen (29:53)
  • Timestamp: 29:40–32:07

6. 2026 Prediction #5: Polymarket Open Interest Will Hit New Highs

• Prediction markets will surpass 2024's U.S. election highs (>$500M in open interest), fueled by U.S. market access, diverse event categories, and global events like the World Cup.
  • Quote: "Polymarket is opening in the US... You could see this go to a billion dollars... I think this one is pretty easy." – Matt Hougan (37:45)
  • Timestamp: 37:01–39:40

7. 2026 Prediction #6: Stablecoins Will Be Blamed for Destabilizing a Currency

• The “shadow side” of global stablecoin adoption: as citizens seek stability (e.g., in Argentina, Nigeria), central banks will accuse stablecoins of currency destabilization, risking bans or crackdowns (which likely won’t work).
  • Quote: "For the people running the central banks in that country, it's less of a wonderful story.... It's capital flight, it's dollarization..." – Matt Hougan (42:55)
  • Timestamp: 42:55–46:47

8. 2026 Prediction #7: Onchain Vaults (ETF 2.0) Will Double in AUM

• “Onchain vaults” (decentralized asset management) grew from $2B to ~$9B, had a post-volatility dip, but are poised for massive institutional entry. Bitwise hints at future involvement.
  • Quote: "Vaults is a natural evolution... we'll be sitting here talking about multiple trillions of dollars in vaults..." – Matt Hougan (50:18)
  • Timestamp: 47:52–51:27

9. 2026 Prediction #8: ETH & SOL ATHs If the Clarity Act Passes

• Both will see new all-time highs contingent on passage of the U.S. Clarity Act, which would cement regulatory certainty for tokenization and DeFi. Odds for passage put at 60%.
  • Quote: "If the Clarity Act passes, we have the full regulatory spectrum to build the future of finance to build a bankless world..." – Matt Hougan (53:09)
  • Quote: "I'd put [Clarity Act odds] like something like 60%... It's not a guarantee; we need to continue focusing on it." – Matt Hougan (55:11)
  • Timestamp: 52:22–56:03

10. 2026 Prediction #9: Half of Ivy League Endowments Will Invest in Crypto

• Currently only Brown & Harvard have exposure; expect at least 4/8 Ivies, spurring institutional “copycat” flows, similar to what Yale once did with hedge funds.
  • Quote: "The reason [Ivies] matter is because they set the tone for institutional investors... If we get half or more of the Ivies investing in Bitcoin, it validates it for every institutional investor." – Matt Hougan (56:30)
  • Timestamp: 56:03–58:06

11. 2026 Prediction #10: 100+ Crypto ETPs Will Launch in the U.S.

• SEC’s new generic listing standards have unlocked a “cheesecake factory” menu of ETPs: expect single-asset, index, smart-beta, and more.
  • Bitwise’s own market cap-weighted Top Ten Crypto Index ETF launches—seen as the new “easy button” for mainstream investors.
  • Quote: "I think over 100 crypto-linked ETPs will launch next year..." – Ryan Rasmussen (58:28)
  • Quote: "This is actually why I joined Bitwise in 2018... Index funds are the primary way people invest in stocks... I think they're going to be one of the primary ways people invest in crypto..." – Matt Hougan (61:02)
  • Timestamp: 58:06–63:05

12. Bonus Prediction: Bitcoin’s Correlation to Equities Will Fall

• As crypto-specific drivers (e.g., regulation, tokenization, use-cases) grow in importance, BTC will “decouple” further from equities.
  • Quote: "If you think the relative importance of the real world use of crypto is rising, then you think correlations are going down..." – Matt Hougan (64:16)
  • Timestamp: 63:55–66:39

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Crypto’s Big Shift:
  • “Crypto Twitter has sort of lost its ambition... The chairman of the SEC... said all U.S. stocks would be on chain in a couple of years... For context, the tokenized stock market today is $680M. U.S. stocks are $68 trillion... that’s 100,000x bigger.”
    – Matt Hougan (00:00, repeated at 68:56)
• On Institutional Adoption:
  • “Suit coiners are bullish; their peers are bullish... They're at the frontier of adoption and can see it.”
    – Matt Hougan (73:18)
• On Regulatory Progress:
  • “We've made this regulatory progress... we can move the full financial economy on chain... We're not really bullish enough, I think, is my take.”
    – Matt Hougan (68:56)
• On Use Cases:
  • “Prediction markets is probably the fourth leg... but we’re also going to see privacy, DeFi, DePIN... Crypto’s going to be a ten-trick pony.”
    – Matt Hougan (39:40)
• On Crypto Vocabulary:
  • "Crypto's no longer a four-letter word in traditional finance—it's been defanged, it is the term."
    – Matt Hougan (72:30)
• On the Future:
  • "Returns are going to go up, volatility going down, and correlations going lower... That's part of why institutional adoption will continue."
    – Matt Hougan (66:39)

Additional Insights

• Changing Investor Psychology:
  The panel observes that, ironically, traditional (“suit-coiner”) investors are now more bullish and energized about crypto’s future than many “crypto natives,” who are mired in bear market sentiment. (73:18)
• On Generational Wealth Transfer:
  The “drip-by-drip” effect continues, as more family offices and retiring boomer wealth positions crypto as a must-understand asset for advisors, plus the “aging up” of crypto-native talent into key roles at major institutions. (70:58)
• On DeFi and Tokenization:
  Improved regulatory clarity is blurring the lines between tokens and equities—the “future of finance” will require exposure to both. (33:19)

Timestamps by Topic

| Segment | Start | End | |-------------------------------------------|---------|---------| | Reflection on 2025 Predictions | 01:13 | 09:46 | | Cycle Theory, Institutional Demand | 13:02 | 16:06 | | ETF Demand, Supply Outstripping | 21:54 | 29:40 | | Crypto Equities Outperform | 29:40 | 32:07 | | Prediction Markets & Polymarket | 37:01 | 41:56 | | Stablecoin Impact on Emerging Markets | 42:55 | 47:30 | | Onchain Vaults (ETF 2.0) | 47:52 | 51:27 | | Crypto ETP/ETF Explosion | 58:06 | 63:05 | | Decoupling from Equities | 63:55 | 66:39 | | Long-term Industry Reflections | 66:39 | 68:56 | | Generational Wealth Transfer | 70:58 | 72:10 | | Language of Crypto/Institutional Bullish | 72:10 | 73:57 |

Tone

• Confident, data-driven, occasionally irreverent: This is a show by and for market realists, but optimistic about crypto's trajectory.
• Bullish but grounded: Regular reminders that regulatory, institutional, and narrative shifts are not price panaceas, but represent tectonic changes.

Final Thoughts

2026 is poised to be a watershed year, with crypto’s integration into institutional and regulatory frameworks accelerating at a pace that even seasoned industry veterans find hard to absorb. While crypto Twitter sulks, the suits are getting “bankless”—and there’s never been a better time to align with the real, on-chain future.

For more, listen to the full episode for deep context and further nuance behind each prediction.