Bankless Podcast Summary

Episode: 12 Big Crypto Predictions for 2026 | Ryan & David
Date: December 24, 2025
Hosts: Ryan Sean Adams & David Hoffman

Episode Overview

Ryan and David forgo their traditional weekly rollup to present a “meta-analysis” of everyone’s top crypto predictions for 2026, drawing from forecasts by Bitwise, Coinbase, Galaxy, Grayscale, CoinShares, Fidelity, a16z, and more. They categorize predictions into areas of consensus, thematic broad strokes, and core disagreements, offering perspective, debate, and context for the key trends shaping the next chapter of crypto. The tone is relaxed, occasionally playful, but deeply analytical.

Consensus Predictions: Where All Forecasters Agree

Starts at [03:14]

1. Stablecoins Go Mainstream

• Prediction: Stablecoins will evolve from backend crypto plumbing to true payment rails by 2026.
  • Galaxy: "Stablecoins will overtake ACH in transaction volume." [04:10]
  • Coinbase Institutional: Sees growth in “cross border transaction settlement, remittances, and payroll platforms.” [04:17]
  • a16z: “Stablecoins will fundamentally shift to the foundational settlement layer of the Internet.” [04:24]
  • Bitwise: Predicts “stablecoins will be blamed for destabilizing an emerging market currency.” [04:44]
• Consumer Takeaway: Users may not even realize they're transacting via stablecoins as UX integrates them seamlessly.
  • Ryan: “You may not know you’re even using stablecoins. It’ll be fused into the experiences that we have with our crypto wallets… feels just like Venmo.” [05:12]
• Disruption: Traditional banks may lag behind as fintech and crypto-native firms lead integration.

2. Tokenization Breakout

• Prediction: 2026 is the “breakout year” for tokenization—moving from pilots to real products, especially for equities and other assets.
  • CoinShares: "Tokenization is going to be a breakout year." [07:06]
  • Galaxy: “A major bank or broker will accept tokenized equities as collateral.”
  • Grayscale: “Asset tokenization is at an inflection point.”
  • Coinbase: “2026 might be the year that tokenization makes a similar jump into the mainstream as stablecoins did... $20B already tokenized could balloon to $400B.” [07:37]
• Benefits/Obstacles: Enable 24/7 equities, DeFi-native collateral, but legal and infrastructural friction remains.

3. Explosion of Crypto ETFs

• Prediction: The U.S. will see a boom in crypto-linked and altcoin ETFs.
  • Bitwise: Over 100 crypto ETFs expected to launch. [10:04]
  • Galaxy: More than 50 spot altcoin ETFs, and 50+ basket ETFs.
  • CoinShares: “4 big US wirehouses open solicited Bitcoin ETF allocations in discretionary portfolios.”
• Mainstreaming: Bitcoin and crypto ETFs enter model portfolios and potentially even 401(k)s, driving broad adoption.

4. Market Structure Legislation is Likely

• Prediction: Regulatory clarity is likely, with acts like Clarity or the “Clarity Act” passing.
  • CoinShares: Predicts Clarity Act will pass. [11:46]
  • Grayscale: Expects bipartisan market structure legislation.
  • Coinbase Institutional: “Clear regulation is a core reason 2026 could be transformative...” [12:16]
• Caveat: Ryan is 50/50 on the political viability due to partisanship and election-year politics. [12:38]

5. Prediction Markets Hit Scale

• Prediction: Platforms such as Polymarket exceed $1B (even $1.5B) in weekly volumes.
  • Galaxy, Bitwise, Coinbase Institutional: All cite prediction markets becoming institutional staples. [14:06]
  • Ryan: “Safe predictions this year. It’s all safe predictions.” [14:58]

6. Quantum Risk: Real, But Not Immediate

• Prediction: Quantum computing is recognized as a risk, but not a 2026 threat.
  • Grayscale, BlackRock: “Quantum is going to become a growing subject, but it’s not a risk in 2026.” [15:27]
  • Ryan: Points out Bitcoin’s slowness in pushing upgrades, amplifying future risks.
  • David (on the stakes): “If Bitcoin does nothing, then it divides by zero when quantum eventually comes... it has to do something and it can't wait too long.” [19:38]

Broad Thematic Predictions (“Broad Strokes”)

Starts at [20:30]

1. Hybrid Finance (“HyFi” or “HyFiFi”)

• CoinShares Coined: “Hybrid finance” as the fusion of TradFi scale, regulation, and products with crypto composability and public blockchains.
  • David: “If I would actually summarize the whole of everything about all these predictions, this idea of hybrid finance... is like the net sum of it.” [25:14]
  • Ryan: “The public chains become the settlement composability layer while TradFi supplies the regulation, scale, distribution, custody, and product wrappers.” [25:14]
• Limitations: Bearer assets (like true on-chain securities) face regulatory friction—there can’t be bearer Apple shares. [26:01]

2. Privacy as a Core Theme

• Need for Privacy: Institutional ramp-up and on-chain finance demand deeper privacy.
  • Coinbase: Anticipates advancements in ZK-proofs, homomorphic encryption, and increased confidential on-chain usage. [28:02]
  • Galaxy: Predicts “combined market cap of privacy tokens will exceed $100 billion by end of 2026.” [28:43]
  • a16z: “Privacy will be the most important moat... creates chain lock-in and network effects because bridging secrets is hard.” [32:01]
  • Ryan: “You shouldn’t have to invest in a Ponzi just to get privacy.” [29:44]
• Differences: Varied views on whether privacy is a chain, a feature, or both.

3. CeFi-to-DeFi (CEX-to-DEX) Migration

• DEXs Eating Market Share: DEXs’ volume to rise from ~15% to over 25% of spot market by 2026.
  • Galaxy: “By the end of 2026, DEXs will capture more than 25% of combined spot trading volume.” [33:28]
  • CoinShares: DEX volumes will be “structural, not 2021 mania,” topping $600B/m. [34:03]
  • Ryan: “Centralized exchange business model... will not be sustainable over the long run.” [34:03]

4. Rethinking Tokenomics and Value Capture

• Protocols pivot: Towards explicit value capture - fee share, buybacks, and “Fat App Thesis.”
  • Grayscale: "A focus on sustainable revenue as a top 2026 theme." [36:09]
  • Coinbase: “Protocols are leaning into value capture, fee sharing, buybacks…”
  • Galaxy: Application revenue to network revenue ratio will double.
  • Ryan: Skeptical investors want clarity and a single asset that captures the full value (“I simply want to capture all of it.”) [38:21]
• Debate: Uncertainty remains over value accrual—tokens vs. equity, app layer vs. protocol layer.

Core Disagreements and Controversies

Starts at [39:44]

1. The Fate of Digital Asset Trusts (DATs)

• Coinbase: DATs will “evolve” beyond accumulation into “blockspace selling.”
• Galaxy: Predicts consolidation—“five or more digital asset companies will be forced to sell assets, be acquired, or shut down.”
• Grayscale: Calls DATs “a red herring and not a major factor in 2026.”
• Synthesis (Ryan+David): Most DATs are momentum vehicles, only a few will survive long-term, and not a 2026 market mover.

2. Market Cycles and Macro Trends

• Bitwise & Grayscale: Bitcoin will break its four-year cycle and hit new all-time highs in 2026.
• Galaxy & Coinbase: Caution—“2026 is too chaotic to predict.” Coinbase expects BTC in $110-$140k range.
• David (yearly candle analysis):
  • “My bear case is another red sliver candle… up to +50% is my range.” [46:40]
  • “It’s hard to see a big green or red candle next year.” [45:52]
• Sense: Expect muted price moves, uncertainty on whether bull or bear, with only moderate optimism for wild bull markets.

Memorable Quotes & Notable Moments

• Ryan: “Let a thousand stablecoin experiments bloom.” [03:14]
• David: “Bitcoin is bestowed upon humans by God and therefore it is perfect and doesn’t need to be [touched].” [18:50]
• Ryan: “Imagine if Amazon spun off AWS. There’s a separate equity vehicle." [39:25]
• David: “[If] Bitcoin does nothing, then it divides by zero when quantum eventually comes.” [19:38]
• Ryan: “You get to choose your own adventure here.” [62:26]

In-depth: Ethereum and Bitcoin Year in Review & Predictions

Starts at [50:23]

Ethereum (Network)

• Ryan: “A good year, not a great year... There’s a much clearer roadmap and priorities. We’re back to scaling the L1 and that feels really good.” [52:24]
• David: “Great year for the technicals of Ethereum... fundamentally it was a bad year for actual L1 usage.” [53:30]
  • Active addresses and L1 activity: Contentious, as usage is up but fees are low, and no block speed improvement yet.

Ethereum (Asset)

• Ryan: “Not even a good year for ETH the asset... we traded down to 1500.” [56:57]
• Valuation Debate: ETH is valued anywhere from $40 (price-to-sales) to $9,400 (Metcalfe's Law). [58:05]
• Core Tension: “The bulk of layer one value needs to come from monetary premium… ETH is either a money, or bust.” [60:14]
• David: Where ETH lands on that spectrum depends on its smart contract market share. Technical improvements and adoption could push ETH closer to “store of value” valuations. [60:38]

Bitcoin (Asset)

• David: “On the year, Bitcoin is down 6%... If that’s all we got and next year’s green, that’s a fantastic year.” [63:12]
• Ryan: “It is doing the thing that bitcoiners had hoped it would do… [being] a hedge against issuance, fiat issuance, and inflation.” [64:34]
• Threats: Quantum risk could fundamentally change the narrative, with major pricing implications.
• David: “The biggest bullish catalyst for Ethereum is Bitcoin’s failure to deal with Quantum.” [65:54]
• Ryan: “I think the truth is both of these visions [monochain and multichain] will be present into the future and certainly in 2026 and beyond.” [70:10]

Two Competing Visions for Crypto’s Future

Starts at [67:25]

1. United Chains of Ethereum: One composable, credibly neutral settlement layer (Ethereum), offering every use case via L2s and privacy/app chains.
2. Specialized App Chains: An ecosystem of niche, high-revenue chains for specific use cases—Bitcoin as SoV, Solana for execution, Zcash for privacy.

Both hosts conclude: Both visions will persist, and allocation across both is rational.

Timestamps for Key Segments

• [03:14] – Start of consensus (agreement) predictions
• [14:47] – Prediction markets in 2026
• [15:27] – Quantum computing risks
• [20:30] – “Broad strokes” (thematic) predictions
• [25:14] – Hybrid finance (HyFi)
• [28:02] – Privacy: need and trends
• [33:28] – CeFi to DeFi: CEX→DEX
• [36:09] – Tokenomics and value capture
• [39:44] – Disagreements: DATs, cycles, and macro
• [50:23] – Ethereum and BTC year-in-review and outlook
• [62:09] – How to value ETH (“Choose your own adventure”)
• [67:25] – Two visions: United Chains vs. Specialized App Chains

Final Takeaways

• The narrative for 2026 is one of maturation: Real-world adoption (stablecoins, tokenization, ETFs), major TradFi/DeFi convergence, regulatory progress, and surging privacy concern.
• The “ETH as money or bust” thesis holds for layer ones, while Bitcoin risks being blindsided by quantum if development ossifies.
• Despite some safe predictions, considerable debate and existential tension animate the future—be it around value capture, privacy, cycle theory, or the fundamental architecture of crypto.
• Macro and technical tailwinds align for both ETH and BTC, but don’t count on wild volatility.
• Expect a blend of both united and chaotic ecosystem approaches into 2026 and beyond.