Episode Overview

Title: Crypto Markets Forever Stuck? Onchain Data Explained | Michael Nadeau’s Defi Report #2
Date: July 2, 2025
Host: Ryan (Bankless)
Guest: Michael Nadeau

This episode of the Bankless “Crypto Fundamentals” series delves into why major crypto assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum seem stuck in a trading range, what onchain data reveals about market sentiment, and whether altcoins are due for a rally. Host Ryan and his regular analyst guest Michael Nadeau use data-driven insights to question whether holding crypto makes sense, discuss the so-called “Hodler's Fallacy,” and tease out both macro and micro market forces shaping the current cycle.

Main Themes

• Are Crypto Markets Stuck? Digging into why Bitcoin and Ethereum are range-bound.
• Is Long-Term Holding a Fallacy? Debating the value of conviction in holding digital assets.
• Altcoin Sentiment: Exploring whether altcoins are hated enough to bounce.
• Onchain Data Analytics: Using Glassnode metrics to evaluate holder behavior.
• Market Cycle Positioning: Where are we now in the broader cycle?

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Setting the Stage: Is Crypto Stuck? (00:04–01:40)

• Stagnant Prices: Ryan asks whether Bitcoin, ETH, and Solana are “forever stuck” around their current prices, and wonders if the summer doldrums have set in.
• Altcoin Unpopularity: The hosts speculate about altcoins being “the most hated asset right now,” possibly setting up for a contrarian rally.

“Are we forever stuck at like 107k bitcoin, 2500 ETH and 150 Solana? Feels like we’ve been in this zone forever.”
— Ryan (00:10)

• Market Mood: Michael sees Bitcoin as "a beach ball that's trying to be held under the water," implying pent-up potential, but acknowledges current lack of breakout due to seasonal low interest.

“Bitcoin is like a beach ball that's trying to be held under the water right now... We've been trading in this range now for going on seven, eight months.”
— Michael Nadeau (00:46)

2. Rethinking Hodling: The “Hodler’s Fallacy” (01:40–05:06)

• Article Reference: Ryan references an article titled “The Hodler's Fallacy: Rethinking Conviction in a Naturally Extractive Market” that claims crypto assets (with maybe the exception of Bitcoin) are not suitable for long-term holding because the market only rewards execution, not conviction.
• Value Accrual Debate: Michael counters that while skepticism is understandable—many tokens don’t return value to holders—regulation and deeper understanding of value flows will eventually change this. He draws attention to protocols like Uniswap and the challenge for holders to see value returned compared to equity holders.

“Crypto is pure arbitrage masquerading as an investment market.”
— Ryan quoting article (02:10)

“It's sort of fair to look at it right now and say... how could you have a long-term thesis on a lot of these things when we still aren't at a place where you can hold the UNI token... and know that the value is going to go to you as a token holder?”
— Michael Nadeau (03:44)

• Regulation as Catalyst: Michael predicts that regulation will force projects to return more value to token holders, establishing stronger investment cases for non-Bitcoin assets in the long run.

3. Onchain Analytics: Explaining the Stuck Market (07:03–14:53)

Ryan and Michael review several Glassnode charts to break down Bitcoin’s current holder behavior and supply structure:

a) Bitcoin Holder Accumulation Ratio (07:03–09:50)

• Current State: Fewer existing holders are accumulating Bitcoin compared to previous bullish periods; ratio has “crept down towards 40%.”
• ETF/Exchange Adjustment: Onchain data doesn’t pick up ETF or exchange balances (roughly 18% of supply), so must be interpreted carefully.
• What’s Needed: A breakout likely requires existing holders to start accumulating again, potentially triggered by upcoming macro shifts (e.g., US Fed rate cuts).

“People that already hold bitcoin, there’s more people selling their bitcoin of the current holder base than are accumulating right now.”
— Michael Nadeau (07:47)

b) Addresses with >10,000 BTC: The Whale Indicator (10:31–12:00)

• Whale Behavior: The number of addresses holding over 10,000 BTC (the largest whales) has decreased from 120 at cycle start to under 100 now.
• Implication: These early, massive holders are scaling out—providing sustained, if gradual, sell pressure.

“If you own 10,000 BTC, you’re probably in very early and so you still have some of that sort of sell pressure.”
— Michael Nadeau (11:40)

c) Long-Term Holder Supply Rising (12:00–13:24)

• Positive Signal: Long-term holder supply is at all-time highs—around 74% of circulating supply—indicating strong conviction among core holders.
• Turnaround Point: Recent dip shows some took profits, but long-term holders are stepping back in.

“Long term holder supply is now back to all time highs... That’s usually a pretty good base for if we see speculation come back into the market.”
— Michael Nadeau (12:22)

d) Illiquid Supply at All-Time High (13:24–14:23)

• Supply Dynamics: Glassnode estimates most BTC is in “strong, diamond hands”—wallets classified as illiquid.
• Bullish Base: Suggests a robust floor for prices, as these coins are less likely to hit the market.

“Most of the supply looks like it’s in strong, diamond hands right now... that’s another bullish indicator.”
— Michael Nadeau (13:44)

e) Synthesis: What It All Means (14:23–14:53)

• Market Position: The market is “setting a very strong base.” The absence of major liquidations or inflows means the next move hinges on macro events, especially US monetary policy.
• Historical Patterns: The long-term store-of-value dynamic is driving BTC, with price appreciation requiring new sources of demand on top of strong holder conviction.

4. Macro Factors and Next Moves (14:53–15:12)

• Powell vs. Trump: The final “domino” for market breakout may be US Federal Reserve policy decisions or post-election clarity.
• Outlook for Alts: Host pivots to discuss altcoins for the remainder of the episode.

Notable Quotes & Timestamps

• On Market Stagnation:
  “Bitcoin is like a beach ball that's trying to be held under the water right now...” — Michael Nadeau (00:46)
• On Holder Conviction:
  “How could you have a long term thesis on a lot of these things when we still aren’t at a place where you can hold the UNI token... and know that the value is going to go to you as a token holder?” — Michael Nadeau (03:44)
• On Glassnode Data:
  “People that already hold bitcoin, there’s more people selling... than are accumulating right now.” — Michael Nadeau (07:47)
• On Whale Behavior:
  “If you own 10,000 BTC, you’re probably in very early and so you still have some of that sort of sell pressure.” — Michael Nadeau (11:40)
• On Market Foundation:
  “Most of the supply looks like it’s in strong, diamond hands right now.” — Michael Nadeau (13:44)
• On Next Market Driver:
  “I think the market is waiting to see what Mr. Powell is going to do and who’s going to win this fight between Trump and Powell.” — Michael Nadeau (14:53)

Important Timestamps

• 00:04-01:40 – Episode themes and market overview
• 01:40-05:06 – Hodler’s Fallacy debate and value in onchain assets
• 07:03-09:50 – Bitcoin holder accumulation ratio explained
• 10:31-12:00 – Whale accumulation trend and sell pressure
• 12:00-13:24 – Long-term holder supply at all-time highs
• 13:24-14:23 – Illiquid supply insights and market foundation
• 14:23-14:53 – Market summary and path forward

Flow and Tone

The discussion is candid and data-driven, mixing skepticism (are alts dead? Is hodling a trap?) with analytical optimism (macro setup, holder conviction, illiquid supply as foundation). Michael’s tone is balanced yet bullish, emphasizing patience and fundamentals.

Summary Takeaways

• BTC and majors remain stuck until macro shifts—Fed policy is key.
• Holder data shows conviction is high among long-termers, while big whales continue to slowly exit.
• Altcoins are deeply out of favor, potentially creating contrarian opportunities.
• Regulatory clarity and real value accrual are crucial for crypto’s long-term investability.
• The market may be in a waiting phase, but onchain metrics suggest a strong foundation for a future move.

This episode gives listeners a clear, data-backed roadmap for interpreting crypto’s “stuck” phase and primes them for deeper analysis in coming segments, which promise altcoin and portfolio insights.