Bankless: Is It All Over? What The Markets Are Saying For 2026

Date: November 21, 2025
Hosts: Ryan & David
Episode Summary:
In this episode, the Bankless crew dives deep into the atmosphere of “extreme fear” currently gripping the crypto markets. They analyze whether this marks the start of a bear market, unpack macroeconomic triggers, review influential investor perspectives, and explore insights on the future of Ethereum from DevConnect in Buenos Aires. Key updates on Bankless Summit, the new AAVE app, Aztec’s privacy L2, the coming Kraken IPO, and more round out the discussion.

Episode Theme & Purpose

This episode is a comprehensive pulse check on the state of crypto as 2025 closes. The hosts dissect market turmoil, investor sentiment, and Ethereum’s technical and cultural trajectory, while also reviewing major product launches and industry news. They balance raw market realism ("it feels like a bear market") with on-the-ground excitement from the Ethereum community, providing both investor and builder outlooks.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Market Turmoil & The “Bear” Feeling

• Bitcoin down 13% on the week, 23% on the month ([05:17])
  "We are currently clocking in at just a smidge over $87." – David
• ETH mirrors the pain: $2,800, down 14% on the week, 30% on the month ([05:59])
• Total crypto market cap at $3.1T (from $4T ATH)
• Bear Market Debate:
  Both hosts agree current sentiment and price action feel like a bear market, but stress it hasn’t lasted long enough for technical confirmation.
  • “You check the prices and they’re down and you just repeat that process… it feels like a bear market.” – David ([06:53])
  • “The only part that’s missing… is months of that feeling playing out…” – Ryan ([07:27])
• Fear & Greed Index at ‘Extreme Fear’ ([12:56])
• Death Cross:
  Bitcoin’s 50-day SMA crossing below 200-day triggered concern, but historical precedents are mixed:
  “Sometimes you get a 666% return one year later and other times you get a negative 50%.” – Ryan ([15:17])

2. Macro & Market Catalysts ([07:36–12:18])

• Fed Rate Cut Uncertainty: Repricing of expectations triggered market selling.
• AI Bubble Fears:
  • Peter Thiel and Softbank sold large Nvidia stakes, sparking AI correction fears.
  • Nvidia’s Jensen soothes markets: “He saved the market. He saved AI. That’s what people are saying.” – Ryan ([11:02])
• Liquidity Concerns:
  Prediction markets like Polymarket see $130M+ volume trading Fed outcome ([09:00]).
  AI’s fate became a “bellwether” for overall tech/crypto confidence.

3. Investor Perspectives: Is the Cycle Over or Extended? ([16:48–22:36])

Three takes:

• Raoul Pal – The Extended Cycle Bull:
  “The cycle’s not over. Don’t F it up.” ([17:23])
• Arthur Hayes – Trade the Dip, Prepare for 2026:
  • Called for short-term pain (BTC down to $80k, equities down 10–20%), then raging 2026 bull market fueled by liquidity and China QE.
  • “Arthur Hayes always loves to back into QE is happening… and then we’re going to rip.” – David ([19:27])
• Michael Nadeau – Pragmatic Analyst:
  • “The cycle’s probably over.”
  • Pointed out Bitcoin closing below 50-week moving average ("if we close below… it’s been over").
  • Hope remains if BTC can reclaim this level ([21:37]).
• Nick Carter’s ‘Forgotten Child’ Thesis:
  • "Now, crypto is a forgotten child... Crypto is trending down based on no catalyst, just exhaustion and a lack of attention and buyers." ([22:36])

4. Cultural & Comparative Context ([22:36–25:31])

• 2025 compared to 2022:
  Markets are struggling more because attention and narratives have shifted to AI and “Mag 7” stocks, while crypto is out of the limelight ([22:36]).
• Cycle Analysis:
  Compared to past cycles, this one lacks both euphoric peaks and likely won’t have the corresponding despair troughs:
  • “If we are in the bear market, this will be a slow apathy-type grind, bleed out over time, not despair. And I don’t think we’ll get poor—just bored." – Ryan ([25:35])

DevConnect & Ethereum Updates ([28:42–41:00])

5. On-the-Ground at DevConnect, Buenos Aires ([28:42–31:50])

• 7,000–11,000 attendees, high energy, strong “crypto culture” vibes ([01:13–01:26]).
• Argentina’s cryptonative energy discussed: “The city is saturated… vibes are pretty good.” – David ([01:13])

6. L1 Scaling is (Finally) Back in Focus ([29:40–34:37])

• Vitalik’s Keynote:
  • “In 2026 we will have a series of EIPs that will enable the Ethereum network to safely handle larger scales while maintaining decentralization…” – Vitalik (paraphrased by Ryan, [29:40])
• Execution Path:
  • On track for both 3x gas limit increase and ultimately 1000x scaling (“Lean Ethereum”).
  • “If we saw it coming up, that’s going to raise the gas limit from 45 to 60 million, which is a step in that direction.” – Ryan ([31:50])
• New at DevConnect:
  • Shipping of the Ethereum interoperability layer, aiming to unify UX across fragmented L2s ([32:01–34:31]).

7. Other Key Themes at DevConnect

• Privacy:
  • “Institutions aren’t looking for massive cypherpunk levels of privacy… just can’t see it publicly on Etherscan.” – Stephen Goldfeder (paraphrased by David, [36:31])
• ZK Proofs are Productized:
  • Deep research into ZK technology now surfacing at the application layer (Brevis, Succinct, etc.).
  • “The fruits of these investments are born and it’s now up to apps to pick them.” – David ([36:31])
• Ethereum’s ‘Reality Check’:
  • A shift from abstract/future idealism to actionable product-market fit.
  • “If you can’t explain what your job is in crypto, then you should be concerned.” – Ansgar (shared by David, [37:49])
• Stablecoins/Neobanks as ‘the New Wave’:
  • “Ethereum is the banking layer and you don’t need banks anymore.” – David ([38:26])
• Future Tension:
  • Ethereum still reaffirms its cypherpunk, anti-dystopia ideals ([39:44]).

Product & Ecosystem Launches

8. AAVE’s New Consumer App ([42:16–44:54])

• Consumer-facing savings app; users deposit fiat, it’s converted to stables and earns 6–9% yield.
• “All good products in crypto are front run by two to four years of a scam that came before it… Now we have some actual polished professionals.” – David ([44:26])
• Up to $1M deposit insurance.
• Focus: “You don’t see blockchains if you’re a new user.” – David ([42:48])

9. Aztec L2: A Private Ethereum? ([45:32–48:42])

• First fully decentralized L2 sequencer set, aiming for a Zcash-like privacy experience on Ethereum.
• “The most cypherpunk thing to have launched in so long.” – David ([48:13])
• Mainnet expected post-audit by February 2026.
• Public token sale announced.

Major Market/Industry News

10. Kraken IPO ([52:15–54:29])

• $800M raise, aiming for Q1 2026 IPO with ~$20B valuation.
• Expanding into equities, tokenized assets, and more—joining major US-centric public exchanges.

11. Coinbase Leak: Stocks & Prediction Markets? ([54:29–55:47])

• Public code hints at plans to support stock and prediction market trading in-app (“Kalshi integration”), perhaps dropping December 17.

12. Mainstream and Political Backlash

• 60 Minutes segment links Trump, ‘pardon’ culture, Binance/CZ, and stablecoin growth with corruption and financial risk ([56:03–59:25]).
• The Atlantic's David Frum writes “How Crypto Could Trigger the Next Financial Crisis” (dismisses stablecoin payment utility outright, sparking hosts’ pushback).

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Market Pain:
  "It feels like you're just getting punched in the gut repeatedly and you just don't sell because like, I'm not going to sell now. Like it already happened, but then it happens again." — David ([07:17])
• On Investor Roles:
  “Everyone in crypto tends to play their character class, right? Raoul Paul’s going to be forever bullish... Arthur Hayes, he’s a trader... Michael Nadeau... I have not identified a bit with.” – Ryan ([20:14])
• On Ethereum’s Direction:
  “If you can't explain what your job is in crypto, then you should be concerned.” – Ansgar ([37:49])
• On Cultural Shift:
  “Ethereum is a bit more grounded, a less, less infinite garden vibey and more like defi.” – Ryan ([40:32])

Timed Segment Highlights

| Timestamp | Segment | |-----------|------------------------------------------------------------| | 05:17–07:17 | Market drawdown, sentiment check—bear market or not? | | 08:20–09:00 | Fed uncertainty, macro catalysts for crypto crash | | 11:02–12:05 | Nvidia earnings, AI bubble “saved” (?) | | 16:48–22:36 | Three investor macro takes: Raoul Pal, Arthur Hayes, Nadeau | | 28:42–34:31 | DevConnect: L1 scaling & Ethereum’s technical roadmap | | 36:31–39:44 | ZK privacy advance, TradFi/Defi productization | | 42:16–44:54 | AAVE launches consumer-facing “neobank” app | | 45:32–48:42 | Aztec L2: decentralizing privacy for Ethereum | | 52:15–54:29 | Kraken’s $800M raise and IPO details | | 54:29–55:47 | Coinbase leaks: stocks and prediction markets coming | | 56:03–59:25 | Mainstream backlash: 60 Minutes, The Atlantic, stablecoins|

Overall Tone

• Raw, often self-deprecating and honest about market pain ("just getting punched in the gut"), balanced with technical curiosity, builder optimism, and meta humor about crypto culture and cycles.
• Both skeptical and hopeful: cautious calls for cycle “end,” but genuine bullishness on Ethereum’s actual development and product market fit.

Summary:

If you’re feeling the sting of recent red candles, this episode offers both therapeutic commiseration and an informed lens on why it’s happening, what the major investors and builders think, and where to look for signs of real progress. Whether this is “all over” or just another apathy-driven market lull, the message is clear: it pays to stay informed and grounded – and Ethereum’s cultural and technical shifts may set the stage for a new kind of sustainable growth.