Bankless Podcast Summary: ROLLUP – June 27, 2025

Episode Title: ROLLUP: Bitcoin Dominance Hits 66% | Circle IPO 10x | Robinhood Flips Coin? | Kalshi vs Polymarket
Guests: Tom Schmidt (Dragonfly), Host: Bankless
Date: June 27, 2025

Episode Overview

In this week’s Bankless Friday Rollup, Tom Schmidt of Dragonfly joins Bankless to recap a surprisingly eventful week in crypto, marked by Bitcoin's continued dominance, Circle’s explosive IPO, surging TradFi interest in crypto equities, and a deep dive into prediction market rivalries. The hosts analyze the state of crypto as H1 2025 ends, debate market meta shifts, discuss Robinhood and Coinbase’s breakouts, dissect the Kalshi vs. Polymarket beef, and close with trends shaping Ethereum L1/L2 identity.

1. Crypto Market Sentiment and Trends

Timestamps: 00:30–11:45

H1 2025 Retrospective and Macro Sentiment

• The mood is cautiously bullish heading into the second half of the year; the consensus of a "rough first half, frothy second" seems accurate.
  • [02:24] Tom Schmidt: "How can you not be bullish? Like every week I feel like you read a headline that would have been totally unbelievable five years ago... we bemoan, oh, bitcoin's down to $100,000. Kind of insane."
• Bitcoin is at $107,500 (+3% on the week); ETH is down 3%. Despite price divergence, BTC is firmly up from the $80,000s, close to all-time highs.
• The only major risk on the horizon: significant macro events or central bank policy shifts that could derail tailwinds.

Bitcoin Dominance Surges

• Bitcoin dominance hits 66%, its highest since December 2020; the eighth straight week of green candles for dominance.
• [04:55] Host: "When bitcoin dominance does turn over, it has never gone down slowly. It only goes down very, very fast."
• Historically, major shifts in dominance are triggered by new "metas": ICO Mania (2017), NFT Mania (2021), and to a lesser extent, meme coins (late 2024).
• Defi (DeFi Summer) didn't dent BTC dominance; new catalysts likely to be unpredictable.
  • [07:11] Host: "I'm guessing whatever brings Bitcoin dominance from 70% back down to like 45%... is going to be something that no one actually sees coming."

2. The ICO Meta, VC Fundraising, and Retail Realities

Timestamps: 07:55–12:45

ICOs and Fundraising Trends

• Renewed discussion about the return of ICOs or token issuance as a meta.
  • [08:06] Host: "You're an ICO meta fan. Maybe you could talk about why you like ICOs."
  • [08:11] Tom: "I don't know if I would say I'm a fan, but I don't hate it... Hopefully we've learned some lessons from 2017."
• Large VC raises have flipped from being bullish signals to anti-signals, often viewed with suspicion by retail who see them as "token shops" (i.e., projects raising at high valuations but with little public involvement).

Retail vs VC Lessons

• "Retail" is getting first-hand experience of VC reality—most startups fail, not all are 100x opportunities.
• Platforms like Kobe's ICO site are exposing the true venture hit rate to retail.
  • [12:10] Tom: "Retail can kind of feel like everything's going to go... But certainly the median venture fund does not do particularly well, but you know, the outliers obviously make up for the rest."

3. TradFi: Circle IPO, Coinbase, and Robinhood’s Crypto Profits

Timestamps: 12:45–24:01

Circle’s Sensational IPO

• Circle IPO opened at $31, soared to a $297 peak (10x!), and now trades at $210—still overvalued by most rational standards.
  • [13:07] Tom: "This is like the most mispriced IPO I've seen in maybe my entire career."
  • Robert Leshner (Compound) suspects TikTok retail is a major driver.
• Circle’s fundamentals (approx. $150M annual revenue) don’t justify $297/share, yet the public markets are exuberant.
  • [14:10] Host: "...the $31 IPO price aligns with that... being priced at $7 billion. There's already a premium there. It's just not justified at $210."
  • [15:07] Tom: "I would not have bought it at open ...the market is telling you something else. Maybe these people are totally irrational..."
• Ripple effect: Coinbase stock, after lagging, rallied 50% in nine days ($254 → $375), now matching its 2021 bull market top.
  • [16:00] Host: "It was ...a very isolated rally, no other crypto equity ...mainly Coinbase, was really moving at all... that has changed in the last ...nine days."

Robinhood’s Crypto Revenue and Stock Surge

• Robinhood (HOOD) is also outperforming; 30–40% of its Q1 2025 gross revenues are from crypto—more than equities or options.
  • [19:16] Tom: "...if you look at their last earnings report, it's very, very heavily crypto... their number one or number two asset was like Doge."
• Despite a two-year trough under $10, HOOD trades at $83, surpassing its IPO highs. Is this all about crypto? Partially, but Robinhood’s product strategy and user base also play roles.
  • [21:40] Host: "Maybe Zoomers just don't have that much money yet... My gut take is that they're not doing anything."
  • [22:01] Tom: "Maybe they're going on chain. Maybe they're, you know, I don't know, trading TikTok Meme coins."
• Crypto now drives legacy fintech stock narratives and competition (e.g., users are tracking the "HOOD to COIN" ratio, both are ~$75B market cap).

4. Kalshi vs. Polymarket: The Prediction Market Rivalry

Timestamps: 24:01–36:39

Kalshi’s $2B Valuation and Crypto VC Funding

• Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated, non-crypto prediction market, closed a $185M Series C led by crypto VCs (Paradigm, Multicoin) as well as mainstream players.
• [28:07] Tom: "I don't think there's anything crazy about $2 billion for a prediction market. I think 2 billion for Kalshi is a little nuts..."
• Robinhood is experimenting with prediction markets by partnering with platforms like ForecastX, not just Kalshi.
• Crypto VCs are investing in Kalshi (a non-crypto, U.S.-legal platform) despite one of their own portfolio companies (Polymarket) being a direct offshore, onchain competitor.
• Kalshi's users are U.S. based; Polymarket is thriving internationally due to regulatory constraints. Parallels drawn to Circle (onshore) vs. Tether (offshore).

Transparency, Onchain Tech, and Industry Allegiances

• Polymarket settles its prediction markets onchain, using UMA as an oracle; Kalshi does not.
  • [30:20] Tom: "Polymarket is actually happening on chain ...it's verifiable ...embodies so much of the Defi story. Kalshi has none of that."
• Allegiance is tribal: some align with legacy TradFi, some with crypto-native tech.

The Spicy Beef: Kalshi Accused of Unethical Conduct

• [31:43] Host: "This is a tweet that you tweeted... ‘Never forget that Kalshi is a team of little rats.’"
• Kalshi staff were caught paying influencers to smear Polymarket CEO Shane Coplin during his FBI raid in 2024.
  • [32:57] Tom: "I just don't think they've been really behaving as good actors in the space... it's not okay to basically libel your competitors or try to beat them on things that aren't just product."
• Host and guests agree the competition "crossed the line from scrappiness to distastefulness"; industry self-policing is needed.

5. Crypto and Mortgages: New Policy Proposals

Timestamps: 36:39–41:38

• The U.S. Federal Housing Finance Agency (under Trump appointee) is studying whether Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac should consider crypto as assets for mortgage underwriting.
  • [38:26] Tom: "When The Bitcoin and ETH ETFs launched the DTCC... marked ...ETFs with 100 haircut for collateral ...It'd be extremely bizarre to me if you can count your crypto assets as collateral for your mortgage, but you can't count your crypto ETFs as collateral for ...your margin loan..."
• Unclear what implementation would look like; banks' risk tolerance would ultimately shape policy even if federal agencies OK crypto as collateral.
• Startups focusing on crypto-mortgage products may have the rug pulled if mainstream lenders enter the space.
• Joke: will "fartcoin" and meme coins end up collateralizing the next housing bubble?

6. Ethereum’s Narrative: L1 vs L2 Identity

Timestamps: 44:31–49:03

• Vitalik retweeted "Ethereum Layer 1 is the world ledger," sparking debate over whether to identify Ethereum with its L1 only or include L2s.
  • [45:00] Tom: "It's almost like when you're overly specific, you sort of invite more questions..."
• The Ethereum community is divided: should L2s be considered "Ethereum," or are they merely users/customers of the L1?
  • [47:20] Tom: "...a good litmus test is: what Percentage of different L2 users know that they're using Ethereum or think they're ...settling back to Ethereum?"
• Host leans toward clear separation: Ethereum L1 is the true ledger; L2s are separate chains leveraging L1’s security.
  • [47:00] Host: "...I actually think it is almost critically important for us to figure this out... Layer twos are just customers ...not inclusive [of] Ethereum."

7. Lightning Round: What’s Exciting to Tom?

Timestamps: 49:03–52:32

• Tom spotlights lighter (ZK-based perps DEX) and Megapot (on-chain lottery where users also "own the house" by LPing).
  • [51:16] Tom: "[Megapot] is ...an API for lottery tickets ...you can buy a ticket, you can be an LP, you can sell a ticket, you can combine it with other people. All sorts of cool stuff."
• Permissionless conference in NYC saw robust attendance and positive vibes despite sweltering heat.

8. Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Tom [02:24]: "How can you not be bullish? Like every week I feel like you read a headline that would have been totally unbelievable five years ago..."
• Host [04:55]: "When bitcoin dominance does turn over, it has never gone down slowly. It only goes down very, very fast."
• Tom [13:07]: "This is like the most mispriced IPO I've seen in maybe my entire career."
• Tom [19:16]: "...very heavily crypto [Robinhood’s revenue]... their number one or number two asset was like Doge."
• Host quoting Tom’s tweet [31:43]: "'Never forget that Kalshi is a team of little rats.'"
• Tom [32:57]: "I just don't think they've been really behaving as good actors in the space... it's not okay to basically libel your competitors..."
• Host [47:00]: "Layer twos are just customers ...not inclusive [of] Ethereum."

9. Key Takeaways

• Bitcoin dominance at multi-year highs, but shifts tend to be fast and driven by unexpected new metas.
• Circle IPO’s 10x rally (and its ripple effect on COIN and HOOD) shows TradFi is fervently chasing crypto exposure, often blurring lines with fundamentals.
• Retail investors are—perhaps painfully—learning the real risks of technified venture investing (via ICO platforms).
• The Kalshi vs. Polymarket rivalry has gone beyond healthy competition, exposing the messy tribal loyalties and transparency gaps within crypto/TradFi crossover plays.
• Ethereum’s identity is being renegotiated, with increasing emphasis on distinguishing L1 from L2 amid mainstreaming adoption.

10. Table of Contents (Quick Reference)

• [00:30] – Crypto Market Sentiment & Macro
• [03:31] – Bitcoin Dominance
• [07:11] – New Meta Triggers & ICOs
• [12:45] – Circle IPO, Coinbase, Robinhood
• [24:01] – Kalshi/Polymarket Rivalry
• [36:39] – Crypto for Mortgages
• [44:31] – Ethereum L1 vs L2 Debate
• [49:03] – What Excites Tom / Permissionless Recap

Follow Tom: @TomHSchmidt
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