Podcast Summary: Bankless – "ROLLUP: One Chart Determines if We're in a Bull or Bear Market"

Date: September 12, 2025
Hosts: Ryan Sean Adams ("A") & David Hoffman ("B")
Episode Theme:
This episode delves into the state of the crypto market in September 2025, examining whether the bull run is over—or just on pause—through macro data and, most importantly, a single revealing chart. The hosts cover the week's biggest stories, including global liquidity trends, ETF launches, tradfi’s embrace of tokenization, high-profile DeFi drama, the stablecoin "bachelor" contest, regulatory intrigue, and significant developments on Ethereum L2s.

Main Theme: Are We in a Bull or Bear Market? The All-Important Chart

• Early in the episode, the hosts frame “Down Timber”—market doldrums in September—but debate whether this implies a bear market.
• Question posed: “Is the bull market over?” Both hosts agree: No one truly knows, but Ryan claims to have one “must-see” chart that answers the question definitively.
• [08:01]
  Ryan: "This is the chart that to me, the one chart I look at to tell whether the bull market's over..."
  • It’s the Weekly Global Liquidity Chart, which is at an all-time high, moving up and to the right.
  • Insight: Crypto prices tend to lag global liquidity. As long as liquidity is climbing, markets are likely to continue higher.
• [09:22]
  Ryan: “The global liquidity chart, man, this is the thing that puts juice and energy into all of crypto markets and it's still going up.”

Economic Update & Fed Watch

Bad News: Unemployment

• [03:08] US unemployment rose to 4.3%, a 4-year high, but still "pretty good historically."
• Memorable:
  David: "Going from 3.5% to 4.3% over three years. I don't care about that." Ryan: "You haven't been fired, David, or lost your job..."

Good News: Producer Price Index Cools

• [04:53] PPI fell 0.1%—the first decline since April 2025; inflation seems to be moderating.
• The markets are focused on the next move by Fed Chair Jerome Powell, with markets predicting a 25 basis point rate cut.

Discussion on Jerome Powell’s Legacy

• Both hosts reflect positively on Powell's performance, noting he navigated post-COVID inflation and helped avoid recession.
• [07:03]
  Ryan: “I think I'm going to miss him when he's gone, dude... I feel like we gave him the hardest time when he was on the transitory inflation path." David: “The tightrope...so far there is not a recession and jobs are doing fine and inflation is like sticky at 3%. But 3% is a totally fine new normal to me. Like the Fed has done a great job.”

Crypto Markets and ETF Update

Bitcoin & ETH Rally

• [10:17]
  • Bitcoin: $114,500, up 4.5% on the week
  • ETH: $4,430, up 3%
  • Total crypto market cap back above $4 trillion

Dogecoin Gets an ETF

• [11:00] First Dogecoin ETF ("DOJE"), not from BlackRock.
  Eric Balchunas (quoted): "Pretty sure this is the first ever US ETF to hold something that has no utility on purpose."
  Ryan: "Bitcoin was the first, my friend."
  Discussion on what counts as "utility" for meme coins.

DeFi, DAOs & "Ponzinomics" Discourse

Treasury Stocks and MNAV Issues

• [12:27] Sharplink Gaming begins $1.5 billion share buyback as its MNet Asset Value drops below 1.
• [13:59]
  Joseph Shalom (quoted): "They believe SBET is significantly undervalued...anytime that it's under one and significantly undervalued, they're just going to buy back their shares."

Ponzi Labels & Cyclical Markets

• Discussion on skepticism and labeling DAOs as Ponzi schemes.
• [15:08]
  Ryan: "Calling them Ponzis is not quite right...there is an underlying asset." David: "Not feeling great and feeling nervous is a fantastic thing to feel in a healthy financial market...these things could just totally be cyclical."

Major Moves: ETH, Solana, and Worldcoin Treasury Activity

Tom Lee Buys ETH, Worldcoin

• Tom Lee purchases almost $1 billion in ETH and $20 million of Worldcoin, which rapidly appreciates.
• Hosts debate the mandate and purity of DAOs holding non-native assets.
• Photo-op banter: Tom Lee with Michael Saylor, and Lee with the Worldcoin Orb.
• [17:29]
  Ryan: “Tom Lee loves a good photo op.”

Solana DAOs Follow Suit

• Kyle Samani (the "Michael Saylor of Solana") chairs a new $1.65B Solana DAO.
• Debate if Samani can become the "torchbearer" for Solana like Saylor and Lee were for BTC/ETH.
• [21:32]
  David: "Kyle Somani has already saturated his network of the Solana narrative."

Real World Assets (RWA): Ethereum’s Quiet Dominance

• [23:02] Ryan details surprising data: Ethereum L1/EVMs dominate tokenized stablecoins (95%), treasuries (86%), gold (99%), and stocks (~44% on L1).

• [24:01]
  Ryan: “If you zoom out and you take like market share of real world assets, Ethereum's at like in the 70% range right now for everything on the L1. And then if you add EVM...it's 93%.”

• [26:25]
  David: "No one is really responsible for like beating the drum of Ethereum's dominance..."

• Notable: Fidelity stealth-launched a money market fund on Ethereum L1, now with $200m+ deposited.

DeFi Drama: Justin Sun & Blacklistings

Justin Sun’s WFLI Tokens Frozen

• [29:45]
  • Justin Sun had $100m+ of unlocked WFLI tokens frozen by World Liberty Financial, due to “compromised wallets” or “phishing” concerns. Total at risk: $420m.
  • Sun protests on X but is rebuffed.
• [34:23]
  Ryan: “The WLFI token specifically includes a blacklist address function...This is not normal.”
  • Highlights the irony of a "decentralized" stablecoin with centralized blacklist powers.
  • Quote: "It has a debanking button on it.” ([34:40], Ryan)

"The Bachelor" for Stablecoins: Hyper Liquid’s Big RFP

• [35:39]
  • Hyper Liquid, leading perps DEX, generates $200m in stablecoin yield; half goes to competitor Coinbase.
  • Hosts a public contest (RFP) to select a native stablecoin provider for "USDH" ticker.
• Proposals from: Athena (MakerDAO), Frax, Agora, Paxos, Bastion, Native Markets, others.
  • [39:52] Native Markets emerges as the heavy favorite to win.
  • [40:20]
    Ryan: "This was like a bidding war...a public RFP process...almost felt DAO-like in governance forums."
  • Critique: Haseeb (Dragonfly) claims the RFP was always destined for Native Markets.
  • Final vote scheduled for September 14th.

Chain Business Models & Innovations

MegaETH Launches Embedded Stablecoin

• Instead of charging blockspace/transaction fees (which are zero on HyperScale chains), MegaETH partners with Athena to mint a native stablecoin. The protocol collects backend yield from stablecoin holdings as its revenue model.

Recap of Chain Revenue Models (per Ryan, [44:32]):

1. Sell blockspace (L1s, L2s)
2. Take a cut of TVL/yield (as with native stablecoins)
3. Meme yourself into a Store of Value (BTC, ETH)

Regulatory & TradFi News

Nasdaq’s Tokenization Play – Not What It Seems

• [58:38] Nasdaq CEO Adina Friedman announces tokenization option for equities.
• On further inspection, the equities are settled and “tokenized” on the private DTCC blockchain (R3 Corda)—not public, not composable.
• [60:49]
  David: “You can't use the tokenization word on a private blockchain. That's our word.”

Robinhood Enters S&P 500 & Launches Social Features

• [51:07] Robinhood joins S&P 500; Coinbase joined earlier this year.
• [61:11] Robinhood launches “Robinhood Social”—a finance-focused social app for sharing trades.

Missing Texts Scandal: Gary Gensler & the SEC

• [54:08] A year of Gensler's texts (Oct. 2022–Sept. 2023) “lost” due to “avoidable IT errors” during a crucial enforcement arc.
• The only texts recovered discuss timing enforcement actions.
• [55:07]
  Hayden Adams (quoted): “Subpoenaed the text of every founder in crypto and then deleted his own before leaving office.”
• David: “This pissed me off. This was one of [the only times in a decade]. To me, this [‘just deal with it’ meme] is an admission of guilt.”

Senate Legislation Update

• Senate reviews the “Clarity Act” (re: commodity v security, non-custodial software, validator liability, NFT status).
• Call for retroactive application to Roman Storm’s case.

Ethereum L2s, OP Stack Expands, and Blobs

• Ronin (Axie gaming chain) and South Korea’s Upbit both announce moves to launch L2s using the OP Stack.
• Ethereum’s blobspace being steadily consumed by L2s, signifying L2/L1 synergy growth.

Notable Quotes

• "Liquidity to me also is just like...the denominator is just getting larger. As in the dollar's devaluing. It's almost the same thing." — David [09:38]
• "If you minted above MNAV and buying below MNAV, that's just a good trade." — David [13:17]
• “Doing pretty well...93% of all token real world tokenized assets are actually on Ethereum or the EVM.” — Ryan [26:02]
• “You can't use the tokenization word on a private blockchain!” — David [60:49]

Timestamps for Key Segments

| Time | Segment | |--------------|--------------------------------------------------------| | 00:00–01:44 | “Down Timber” Market Mood + Main Agenda | | 03:08–05:25 | Unemployment (“bad news”) & PPI (“good news”) Update | | 08:01–10:06 | The "Bull Market Decider" – Global Liquidity Chart | | 12:27–17:16 | DAOs, Treasury Buybacks, “Ponzinomics” | | 23:02–26:09 | Ethereum RWA Dominance—Stablecoins, Gold, Stocks | | 29:45–35:25 | Justin Sun vs. WFLI—Blacklisting Controversy | | 35:39–41:30 | Hyper Liquid’s Stablecoin “Bachelor” RFP Competition | | 44:32–44:48 | Revenue Models for Chains | | 51:07–52:28 | Robinhood Joins S&P 500—Coinbase, MicroStrategy notes | | 54:08–56:05 | Gensler’s Lost Texts & Enforcement Era | | 58:38–61:05 | Nasdaq’s Tokenization—Public vs. Private Chains | | 61:11–63:04 | Robinhood Social—Finance Meets Social Media |

Tone & Takeaways

Bankless’ trademark blend of light sarcasm, deep dives, and market pragmatism is present throughout. The episode balances crypto-native technicals with macro, regulation, and industry gossip, always colored by the hosts’ pro-Ethereum, decentralization-first worldview. The single “liquidity” chart carries the day: as long as it points up, the bull market isn’t finished—just “flat” or in pause.

Key takeaway:
Global liquidity drives crypto. While turbulence, drama, and regulatory weirdness persist, foundational metrics still indicate bullish structural trends. Ethereum continues to quietly dominate in real world asset tokenization, and DeFi’s creative destruction is alive and well.