Podcast Summary
Podcast: Bankless
Episode: Where is Crypto Going in 2026? | Ben Cowen
Date: December 23, 2025
Guests: Ben Cowen (Into the Cryptoverse)
Host: David from Bankless
Overview
In this episode, David is joined by Ben Cowen, renowned crypto analyst behind "Into the Cryptoverse," to explore the current state of crypto cycles, the future trajectory of Bitcoin and Ethereum, macroeconomic influences, the absence of the traditional "euphoria" phase in this cycle, and the outlook for crypto investors through 2026 and beyond. The conversation is rich in historical comparisons, market psychology, and actionable perspectives for investors who may feel disenchanted after a cycle that delivered institutional wins but disappointing price action.
Key Discussion Points and Insights
1. Is the Crypto Cycle Over?
- Bitcoin’s Four-Year Cycle
- Ben observes that Bitcoin’s cycle appears to have ended, lasting roughly the same as previous ones (approx. 1060 days).
- “If the four year cycle seems…intact, which it seems like it is, I think bitcoin more than likely has, has topped for the cycle.”
— Ben (00:12)
- “If the four year cycle seems…intact, which it seems like it is, I think bitcoin more than likely has, has topped for the cycle.”
- Ben observes that Bitcoin’s cycle appears to have ended, lasting roughly the same as previous ones (approx. 1060 days).
- Altcoins and “Alt Season”
- While individual altcoins may hit new highs, the broad “alt season” is unlikely.
- “If they haven’t put in an all time high yet, they’re probably not going to.”
— Ben (12:46)
- “If they haven’t put in an all time high yet, they’re probably not going to.”
- While individual altcoins may hit new highs, the broad “alt season” is unlikely.
2. Ethereum’s Unique Cycle
- Ethereum’s Price Action
- Ethereum followed some of Ben’s expectations: bottoming, rallying out of its regression band, and then correcting 47%—a steeper drop than he anticipated.
- Comparison with Tesla’s chart: similar pattern of sweeping highs, correcting, and then returning to previous levels.
- “What it was going to do was sweep the prior all time high, fall back down about 30% and then go back up. But it's obviously gone down a little bit more…closer to like 40%...It went down about 47%.”
— Ben (01:49)
- “What it was going to do was sweep the prior all time high, fall back down about 30% and then go back up. But it's obviously gone down a little bit more…closer to like 40%...It went down about 47%.”
- Potential for a “Divergent High”
- Ethereum could rally to a new all-time high in early 2026 even if Bitcoin doesn't, but such a move would probably be fleeting—likely a “bull trap.”
- “If it does go up there, while Bitcoin’s in a bear market, it likely means it’s just a bull trap.”
— Ben (12:08)
- “If it does go up there, while Bitcoin’s in a bear market, it likely means it’s just a bull trap.”
- Ethereum could rally to a new all-time high in early 2026 even if Bitcoin doesn't, but such a move would probably be fleeting—likely a “bull trap.”
- Longer Accumulation Possible
- There’s a scenario Ethereum consolidates longer (even into 2027 or 2028) before breaking 5K.
3. Macro Matters: Why Euphoria Never Hit
- Monetary Policy's Role
- This cycle lacked the euphoria phase of previous cycles due to persistent quantitative tightening, high interest rates, and macro uncertainty.
- “There just wasn’t a lot of retail interest this cycle…It looks a lot more like 2019 where Bitcoin topped on apathy.”
— Ben (18:27)
- “There just wasn’t a lot of retail interest this cycle…It looks a lot more like 2019 where Bitcoin topped on apathy.”
- Loose monetary policy is vital for true crypto bull markets, but policymakers only react with aggressive rate cuts when the broader stock market sells off.
- “The main way for crypto to really go back up is for loose monetary policy. But we're not going to get the type of monetary policy we want until the stock market starts to show weakness.”
— Ben (25:45)
- “The main way for crypto to really go back up is for loose monetary policy. But we're not going to get the type of monetary policy we want until the stock market starts to show weakness.”
- This cycle lacked the euphoria phase of previous cycles due to persistent quantitative tightening, high interest rates, and macro uncertainty.
4. Competition for Attention: AI vs Crypto
- Investor and Developer Attention
- Much of the speculative energy and innovation in this cycle shifted to AI. Developers found more reward and recognition in AI rather than crypto, which saw meme coins outperform utility-driven projects.
- “How demoralizing would it be as a developer to…spend years pouring your skills into developing something only for some random meme coin to outperform your lifetime returns on a Tuesday afternoon?”
— Ben (33:06)
- “How demoralizing would it be as a developer to…spend years pouring your skills into developing something only for some random meme coin to outperform your lifetime returns on a Tuesday afternoon?”
- Much of the speculative energy and innovation in this cycle shifted to AI. Developers found more reward and recognition in AI rather than crypto, which saw meme coins outperform utility-driven projects.
5. The Future of Crypto Cycles and Market Structure
- Are Crypto Cycles Broken?
- A debate exists on whether crypto’s cyclical boom-bust nature will persist or transition into a slower, grind-it-out phase driven by real adoption, not speculation.
- “You're saying…dubious speculation only gets us so far.”
— David (38:12)
- “You're saying…dubious speculation only gets us so far.”
- A debate exists on whether crypto’s cyclical boom-bust nature will persist or transition into a slower, grind-it-out phase driven by real adoption, not speculation.
- Path to Recovery
- Ben argues meaningful utility and sustainable economic models are needed for the next wave of adoption.
- “We need to rebuke all the crap in the space and we just need to focus on a few things…There's not really a future where everyone's launching their own meme, coin and altcoin and that's a sustainable thing.”
— Ben (38:14)
- “We need to rebuke all the crap in the space and we just need to focus on a few things…There's not really a future where everyone's launching their own meme, coin and altcoin and that's a sustainable thing.”
- Ben argues meaningful utility and sustainable economic models are needed for the next wave of adoption.
- Retail Will Return—Eventually
- Retail and sentiment will return but perhaps only after macroeconomic conditions improve and crypto delivers real value.
6. Paradox of Institutional Adoption and Price Stagnation
- All the Wins, None of the Price
- Despite ETFs, regulatory clarity, and institutional buy-in, prices and sentiment remain low. Markets are forward-looking—often, by the time positive changes are fully visible, the rally is already past.
- “If you wait for the robins, spring will be over…If you wait to see the robins, if you wait for things to look good, to buy, the bull market's over.”
— Ben (47:59)
- “If you wait for the robins, spring will be over…If you wait to see the robins, if you wait for things to look good, to buy, the bull market's over.”
- Despite ETFs, regulatory clarity, and institutional buy-in, prices and sentiment remain low. Markets are forward-looking—often, by the time positive changes are fully visible, the rally is already past.
7. Crypto vs. Gold and Stocks
- Bitcoin Not Digital Gold
- Bitcoin doesn’t behave like gold; it’s a “risk asset,” correlated much more closely to stocks (especially the NASDAQ) than to gold.
- “Bitcoin is a risk asset…It's always traded like a levered version of the Nasdaq.”
— Ben (59:34)
- “Bitcoin is a risk asset…It's always traded like a levered version of the Nasdaq.”
- Gold rallies during macro uncertainty; Bitcoin does not.
- Bitcoin doesn’t behave like gold; it’s a “risk asset,” correlated much more closely to stocks (especially the NASDAQ) than to gold.
- On Stock and AI Bubbles
- Ben offers frameworks for evaluating bubbles in the AI and stock market, concluding we might be in a period reminiscent of the 1970s more than the dot-com boom, but every cycle is different.
- “I think something slightly different will happen…”
— Ben (53:01)
- “I think something slightly different will happen…”
- Ben offers frameworks for evaluating bubbles in the AI and stock market, concluding we might be in a period reminiscent of the 1970s more than the dot-com boom, but every cycle is different.
8. Advice for Crypto Investors
- Don’t Marry an Asset Class
- Diversify—hold various assets, not just crypto.
- “I think it makes sense not to marry an asset class…large positions in gold, silver, stocks, etc.”
— Ben (63:10)
- “I think it makes sense not to marry an asset class…large positions in gold, silver, stocks, etc.”
- Diversify—hold various assets, not just crypto.
- When to Accumulate
- Best opportunities to buy Bitcoin and Ethereum tend to be mid to late midterm year (i.e., 2026), and in line with long-term technical indicators (regression bands for ETH, 200-week moving average for BTC).
- “When Ethereum’s in the regression band, usually like that's a good time to accumulate.”
— Ben (65:00) - “With bitcoin in the midterm year, normally it goes to the 200 week moving average. That tends to be a good time to accumulate bitcoin.”
— Ben (65:00)
- “When Ethereum’s in the regression band, usually like that's a good time to accumulate.”
- Best opportunities to buy Bitcoin and Ethereum tend to be mid to late midterm year (i.e., 2026), and in line with long-term technical indicators (regression bands for ETH, 200-week moving average for BTC).
- Long-Term Bullishness
- Remaining bullish for the long-term makes sense, but patience is required.
- “I think…we’re in a bear market, but it doesn’t mean that the bull market will never come back. And when it does, Bitcoin will…outperform once again.”
— Ben (63:10)
- “I think…we’re in a bear market, but it doesn’t mean that the bull market will never come back. And when it does, Bitcoin will…outperform once again.”
- Remaining bullish for the long-term makes sense, but patience is required.
Notable Quotes & Moments (with Timestamps)
- Bitcoin’s Cycle Ended:
“If the four year cycle seems…intact, which it seems like it is, I think bitcoin more than likely has, has topped for the cycle.” — Ben (00:12) - On Ethereum’s Prospects:
“I could see a scenario where Ethereum does it, but I'm also not married to the idea…Low probability, but a possibility that ETH could hit an all time high in 2026. If so, it would be more of a fleeting all time high so long as Bitcoin is in a bear.” — Ben (12:45, 12:59) - Market Forward-Looking:
“If you wait for the robins, spring will be over…If you wait to see the robins, if you wait for things to look good, to buy, the bull market's over…” — Ben (47:59) - Crypto Market Self-Regulation:
“You don’t need the SEC to regulate crypto in my view, because I think the market will regulate itself over a long enough period of time.” — Ben (33:06) - Bitcoin is a Risk Asset:
“Bitcoin is a risk asset. Right. It's not a risk off asset. It is always traded like a risk on asset. It's always traded like a levered version of the Nasdaq.” — Ben (59:34) - On Patience:
“Usually the time to buy crypto is like halfway…through the midterm year, through the end of the midterm year…The market usually ends up bottoming out.” — Ben (63:10)
Important Segments & Timestamps
- Bitcoin’s Cycle and Alt Season: 00:04–01:49
- Ethereum’s Unique Path: 01:49–10:39
- Macro Factors/Euphoria Discussion: 18:27–36:30
- Will Investors/Builders Return?: 36:30–38:07
- Transition to More Durable Adoption?: 38:07–44:45
- Paradox of Institutional Wins/Price Action: 46:54–49:19
- Crypto vs. Gold/Stocks/AI Bubbles: 56:23–62:32
- Investor Advice and Accumulation Points: 63:00–65:42
Conclusion
This in-depth episode pulls no punches in its diagnosis of the current crypto market. Ben Cowen—analytical as ever—paints a picture of a maturing, macro-dependent asset class, tamped down by monetary policy and drained of euphoric speculation, yet quietly preparing the ground for its next cyclical upswing. Investors are advised: have patience, diversify, avoid “marrying” crypto, and recognize that meaningful gains may require a long-term view and real-world adoption—not just hype, memes, or hope.
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Host: Bankless
None of this is financial advice. Crypto is risky!