Bannon's War Room: Battleground EP 953

Live Coverage from Advance Australia Conference
Date: February 21, 2026
Host: Steve Bannon
Guests: Dr. Bradley Thayer, Ben Harnwell, Trita Parsi

Episode Overview

This episode presents live coverage from the Advance Australia conference in Sydney, focusing on the role of the Australian populist right and its lessons for global populist movements. Host Steve Bannon is joined by War Room International Editor Ben Harnwell and Dr. Bradley Thayer for on-the-ground analysis from the Sydney event. Key topics include the evolving U.S.-Iran dynamic, the global legitimacy crisis facing Western democratic institutions, the impact of COVID authoritarianism, and how new-right grassroots strategies from Australia might be exported elsewhere.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. U.S. Strategy on Iran: Leaks, Red Lines, and Diplomacy

Trita Parsi (Quincy Institute) Interview (01:01-08:43)

• Bannon frames the leaked Wall Street Journal report: Trump prefers incremental, non-regime-change military options against Iran, aiming to pressure Iran without full-scale war, reminiscent of approaches in Venezuela.
  • Quote:

  "President Trump did not want to do a regime change war … He was very specific. He totally obliterated the nuclear weapons program." (01:19 – Bannon)

• Trita Parsi is skeptical:
  • Incremental attacks can backfire. Iran, though weakened, may feel compelled to escalate dramatically against the U.S. rather than acquiesce, potentially aiming to damage Trump politically.
  • The Israeli government has shaped Trump’s perceptions, but Israeli and U.S. interests are not perfectly aligned.
  • Negotiated agreements remain possible if the only "red line" is nuclear weapons, via multinational enrichment schemes and intrusive inspections.
  • The core negotiation barrier is Iran's refusal to speak directly to Trump, rooted in internal politics—ironically, this refusal may be the last remaining path to de-escalation.
  • Memorable quote:

  "Their incentive... is actually to escalate fast, in that type of a scenario, despite the fact that they clearly are the weaker party." (03:21 – Parsi)

  • Memorable quote:

  "The big mistake the Iranians have done ... they have refused to talk directly to Trump. I think if they were open to that ... there could be a massive de-escalation." (05:22 – Parsi)

2. Military Options and Limitations in Iran

Dr. Bradley Thayer’s Analysis (09:17-11:57)

• Limited military strikes are “tremendously disadvantageous”; only full-scale, regime-targeted campaigns could work if force is used.
• Diplomacy remains an option, and Trump remains unpredictable; war is not a foregone conclusion.
  • Quote:

  "Limited attack options are going to be inferior to major attack options against the pillars of the regime." (10:39 – Thayer)

3. Advance Australia: Mission, Tactics, and Achievements

Ben Harnwell Explains Advance Australia’s Origins & Impact (12:15-15:10)

• Advance aims to replace Australia’s establishment center-right parties, having led a successful referendum campaign against an Indigenous-only parliamentary body and engineered a nearly 30-point polling turnaround.
• The movement is compared to MAGA in the U.S.: anti-establishment, focused on engaging (rather than ignoring) grassroots base.
• Analogy:

  "Only thing I can... compare is when you took over the Trump campaign in 2016... that was one of the great military turnarounds in history." (14:07 – Harnwell)

4. The Legitimacy Crisis of Western Democracy

Global Populism vs. Center-Right “Betrayal” (16:36-22:43)

• Center-right and Christian Democrat parties in Europe (and Australia) have allegedly abandoned their bases, fueling migration and facilitating “globalist” agendas.
  • Example: Portugal’s center-right supporting a Socialist over a populist in a runoff.
  • Merkel cited as an “architect” of mass immigration into Germany, inadvertently empowering the far-right AfD.
  • Quote:

  "Christian Democrats... have betrayed the people, but... the people themselves are responding by creating new political movements." (19:45 – Harnwell)

• Thayer:
  • “Legitimation crisis” of elite uniparty ignoring popular will.
  • Advance demonstrates how targeted electoral tactics (voter ID, messaging, granular engagement) can allow populists to win.

5. Australia’s COVID Response and Its Political Fallout

Australia as Authoritarian Outlier (22:43-25:35)

• Australia’s lockdowns described as "draconian," only outdone by China.
• The lack of political opposition even from conservative parties led to the rise of Advance; backlash now fuels more active populist organizing.
  • Quote:

  "The government is only a step away from being hard authoritarian." (23:30 – Thayer)

6. Populist Internationalism and Cross-pollination

Lessons and Connections between Populists Globally (33:29-39:52)

• Australian populists do not feel isolated; see themselves as part of a transnational movement, culturally and legally rooted in the "Judeo-Christian West."
• The U.S. and the MAGA movement offer a template. Bringing in “America First” themes strengthens all like-minded movements.
  • Quote:

  "America is the most economically powerful... nation that's ever existed... If America can absorb within its system the principles delineated by MAGA... that is possible for every country." (38:39 – Harnwell)

7. Australia’s Geopolitical Role: CCP Influence and the Indo-Pacific

CCP Threat, Strategic Defense, and Western Alliances (39:53-42:43)

• Australia’s role as a bulwark against Chinese Communist Party penetration is central, both as a political and military ally for the West.
• Advance is tackling CCP political influence and practical election mechanics simultaneously, aiming to be part of a global “general staff” for the populist right.

8. Practical Populist Campaign Strategy: Lessons from Advance

Tactics for Electoral Victory (44:35-48:40)

• Advance’s defeat of the Greens:
  • Used targeted messaging, identified the Greens as “not who you think they are” (radical, not conservationist, aligned with communism and Islam), and gave permission for traditional supporters to sit out this cycle.
  • Reduced Greens from 5 to 1 Parliamentary seats—proof that careful, tailored messaging can shift outcomes dramatically.
  • Quote:

  "The strategy... was to say, the Greens are not who you think they are... It's far more radical than that these days, working hand in hand with communism and with Islam." (47:03 – Harnwell)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Steve Bannon:

  "This is the primal scream of a dying regime. Pray for our enemies because we're going medieval on these people." (00:12)

• Trita Parsi:

  "If the only red line is no nuclear weapons, there’s absolutely a chance of getting a deal..." (04:45)

• Ben Harnwell:

  "The centre right political movements... have pretty much been taken over by purely performative apparatus." (16:39) "We have elected and we go on electing sociopaths, people who pretend to seek... to represent us, but in fact they're representing ideologies that are antithetical." (36:06)

• Dr. Bradley Thayer:

  "The legitimation crisis is profound and it's affecting, of course, all Western democracies. But groups like Advance ... are offering solutions about how a populist right can employ very specific mechanisms to win elections." (21:47) "Advance is focusing on actively the nuts and bolts of winning ... it’s an extraordinary group and there’s much to learn from it." (22:25) "A hard authoritarianism that would rival China... is possible, really, in any Western democracy." (24:09) "The tactics Advance is moving in a direction which is allowing them to really have the nuts and bolts of election victory, which is also a big part of the solution to the legitimation crisis." (41:22)

Segment Timestamps

• [01:01–08:43]: U.S.-Iran policy debate (Steve Bannon & Trita Parsi)
• [09:17–11:57]: Military strategy discussion (Steve Bannon & Dr. Thayer)
• [12:15–15:10]: Advance Australia background & recent wins (Ben Harnwell)
• [16:36–22:43]: Center-right decline and populist responses (Bannon, Harnwell, Thayer)
• [22:43–25:35]: Australia’s COVID experience and Advance’s rise (Bannon & Thayer)
• [33:29–39:52]: Australia’s sense of connection to global right/liberty movements (Bannon & Harnwell)
• [39:53–42:43]: CCP, geopolitical context (Bannon & Thayer)
• [44:35–48:40]: Campaign tactics against the Greens, messaging lessons (Bannon, Harnwell, Thayer)

Additional Resources Shared

• Trita Parsi: Twitter (@tparsi), Quincy Institute (quincyinst.org), Responsible Statecraft (responsiblestatecraft.org)
• Dr. Bradley Thayer: Social (Getter, Truth Social), and recommends exploring Advance Australia’s resources (advanceaustralia.org)
• Ben Harnwell: Getter (@Harnwell)

Tone & Takeaways

• Tone is combative and populist, targeting elites (labelled “sociopaths,” “globalists,” “uniparty”) and establishment conservative parties for "betrayal."
• Strong emphasis on tactical, election-winning approaches rather than protest or “performative” politics.
• Celebration of international populist networking: MAGA as reference point; Australia dubbed “fertile ground” for Bannonism.
• Critical of COVID-era government authoritarianism and suspicious of CCP influence in Australia, foregrounding these as both challenges and motivating factors for populist mobilization.

This summary distills the episode’s content, highlighting Australia’s role in the global populist resurgence, U.S. foreign policy debate, strategies that bridge activism and practical politics, and the underlying theme: populists can win if they get organized and connected across borders.