Episode 4649: The Coming Economic Boom; On The Brink Of 3rd World War

Summary

Podcast Summary: Bannon's War Room
Episode 4649: The Coming Economic Boom; On The Brink Of 3rd World War
Release Date: July 22, 2025

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Introduction

In Episode 4649 of Bannon's War Room, host Stephen K. Bannon delves into pressing national and international issues, focusing on the anticipated economic boom juxtaposed with escalating geopolitical tensions that could potentially ignite a third World War. The episode features in-depth discussions with economic experts, defense strategists, and political commentators, providing listeners with comprehensive insights into the current state of affairs and future projections.

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1. Justice Department's Statement on Ghislaine Maxwell ([00:00] - [06:53])

The episode opens with Kate Bolduan reporting on a significant development from the Justice Department concerning Ghislaine Maxwell, a convicted associate of Jeffrey Epstein.

• Key Highlights:

  • Deputy Attorney General Todd Blanche announced plans to meet with Maxwell to ascertain if she possesses information about other crimes related to Epstein’s activities.
  • This move appears to intensify pressure on the White House, especially from President Trump's allies demanding greater transparency and accountability.
  • Maxwell's Attorney, David Oscar Marcus, confirmed ongoing discussions, emphasizing Maxwell’s commitment to testify truthfully:

    "Ghislaine will always testify truthfully. We are grateful to President Trump for his commitment to uncovering the truth in this case." ([04:20])

• Discussion Points:

  • Doubts linger about whether Maxwell’s testimony will satisfy the demands for transparency from Trump supporters and constituents.
  • The administration's previous efforts, such as unsealing grand jury transcripts, are deemed insufficient by many critics.

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2. Economic Policies and the "Big Beautiful Bill" ([06:53] - [22:57])

Stephen K. Bannon and guest Joe Lavorne from the Treasury Department discuss President Trump's economic strategies aimed at revitalizing American manufacturing and fostering economic growth.

• Key Highlights:

  • Tariffs and Manufacturing Incentives:
    • Enforcing tariffs to encourage companies to bring manufacturing back to the U.S.
    • Offering full expensing for equipment and factory investments to stimulate capital expenditures (CapEx).
  • AI Boom and Deregulation:
    • Highlighting the surge in artificial intelligence as a catalyst for economic expansion.
    • Emphasis on deregulation to expedite infrastructure projects, with permits issued within a month.

• Notable Quotes:

  • Donald Trump:

    "It's the tariffs bringing back manufacturing to the US... America is building things again." ([02:58])

  • Joe Lavorne:

    "The one big beautiful bill is already paying dividends... incentivize people to invest in capital equipment." ([09:58])

• Economic Projections:

  • Lavorne presents data indicating a significant increase in CapEx, projecting growth rates surpassing conventional estimates.
  • The policy's effectiveness is underscored by a CapEx surge not seen since 1997, fostering productivity and a blue-collar boom.

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3. BRICS and the Global Economic Shift ([15:00] - [28:27])

The conversation shifts to global economic dynamics, particularly the actions of the BRICS nations aiming to challenge the dominance of the U.S. dollar.

• Key Highlights:

  • BRICS Global Summit ("Rio Reset"):
    • Emerging powers including China, Russia, India, and Persia convene to promote alternatives to the U.S. dollar as the global reserve currency.
    • This move is anticipated to decrease global demand for the dollar, potentially destabilizing its value.
  • Economic Preparedness:
    • Steve Bannon warns listeners to diversify savings into precious metals like gold to hedge against the dollar’s decline.
    • Promotions for Birch Gold Group are interspersed, encouraging investment in gold as a safeguard.

• Notable Quotes:

  • Steve Bannon:

    "The Rio reset... marks a pivotal moment when BRICS objectives move decisively from a theoretical possibility towards inevitable reality." ([15:00])

• Implications:

  • The shift away from the dollar could lead to significant economic repercussions, including reduced savings value for Americans.
  • Strategies for financial security, such as investing in gold, are recommended to mitigate potential losses.

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4. Economic Growth and CapEx Discussion ([28:27] - [50:32])

The focus returns to the domestic economy, with a detailed analysis of the proposed tax incentives and their impact on growth.

• Key Highlights:

  • CapEx Comeback:
    • Analysis of how full expensing on capital equipment is driving business investment.
    • Joe Lavorne highlights the unprecedented rate of CapEx growth, linking it to future productivity and wage increases.
  • Debate on Economic Projections:
    • Contrasting views on the sustainability of growth rates and the feasibility of debt reduction within the proposed economic framework.

• Notable Quotes:

  • Derek Harvey:

    "We need more investment in DoD... to maintain deterrence in Asia." ([37:34])

  • Tulsi Gabbard:

    "President Trump is hitting it across the board... But it's very hard to grow your way out of $60 trillion in debt." ([50:32])

• Discussion Points:

  • Spending Cuts and Rescissions:
    • The necessity of reducing deficits through spending cuts to complement tax incentives.
    • Concerns raised about the administration's ability to manage substantial debt despite projected economic growth.
  • Long-Term Productivity Trends:
    • Tulsi Gabbard emphasizes the importance of sustained productivity growth and investment in human capital to ensure long-term economic stability.

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5. Geopolitical Tensions and Defense ([50:32] - [43:37])

Addressing the potential for escalating conflicts, the episode explores the likelihood of the U.S. entering a third World War.

• Key Highlights:

  • Military Investments:
    • Discussion on enhancing naval and air force capabilities to deter aggression from peer adversaries like China and Russia.
  • International Alliances:
    • The strategic importance of alliances with the Philippines and other Pacific nations in countering Chinese influence.
  • Derek Harvey’s Analysis:
    • Derek Harvey, a former intelligence expert, assesses the containment strategies regarding Ukraine and China's internal challenges.

• Notable Quotes:

  • Derek Harvey:

    "We need to contain that. I still don't see a way out in that conflict right now." ([37:34])

  • Tulsi Gabbard:

    "War obliterates the price system. There are no more price signals." ([35:39])

• Discussion Points:

  • The precarious balance between economic prosperity and military readiness.
  • The impact of geopolitical conflicts on America's economic strategies and the potential derailment of the proposed economic boom.

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6. Audience Engagement and Final Remarks ([43:37] - End)

The latter part of the episode shifts between discussions and promotional segments, maintaining focus on actionable insights for listeners.

• Key Highlights:

  • AI Action Plan:
    • Preview of the White House’s forthcoming AI strategy and its implications for the economy and national security.
  • Public Engagement:
    • Encouragement for listeners to monitor economic indicators and stay informed through the provided resources.

• Notable Quotes:

  • Tulsi Gabbard:

    "If Trump is able to put all this in place, you can do the math." ([50:32])

• Conclusion:

  • The episode concludes with reiterated emphasis on the importance of investment in capital equipment and maintaining military strength to ensure both economic growth and national security.
  • Listeners are urged to stay vigilant and proactive in safeguarding their financial interests amidst evolving global and domestic landscapes.

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Key Takeaways

• Economic Revival:
  President Trump's economic policies, particularly the "Big Beautiful Bill," are central to a projected economic boom driven by increased capital expenditures and manufacturing resurgence.

• Geopolitical Risks:
  Rising tensions with BRICS nations and potential conflicts highlight the fragility of the current economic optimism, underscoring the need for robust defense strategies.

• Transparency and Accountability:
  The Justice Department's actions regarding Ghislaine Maxwell signify a push towards greater transparency, though its sufficiency remains debated among Trump supporters.

• Strategic Investments:
  Emphasis on technological advancements and deregulation aims to position the U.S. as a leading economic powerhouse, but sustained growth faces challenges from substantial national debt and global economic shifts.

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Notable Quotes with Timestamps

• Donald Trump ([02:58]):
  "It's the tariffs bringing back manufacturing to the US... America is building things again."

• Dave Brat ([06:53]):
  "This is the primal scream of a dying regime."

• Tulsi Gabbard ([35:39]):
  "War obliterates the price system. There are no more price signals."

• Joe Lavorne ([09:58]):
  "The one big beautiful bill is already paying dividends... incentivize people to invest in capital equipment."

• Derek Harvey ([37:34]):
  "We need to contain that. I still don't see a way out in that conflict right now."

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This episode of Bannon's War Room weaves together intricate discussions on economic strategies and international relations, presenting a narrative of optimism tempered by significant global risks. Listeners are provided with expert analyses and strategic perspectives aimed at navigating the complexities of the current geopolitical and economic landscape.

Transcript

[Kate Bolduan]

New information, a new statement coming out from the Justice Department on all of this. What are you learning? Yeah, I mean, this is what just came in moments ago, Kate, from a statement from Deputy Attorney General Todd Blanche. I want to read for you what it said because it seems like this pressure campaign on the White House is working. So Blanche said, quote, at the direction of Attorney General Bondi, I have communicated with counsel for Ms. Maxwell. He's referring to Ghislaine Maxwell, of course, one of Jeffrey Epstein's associates who has been convict on some of those crimes, to determine whether she would be willing to speak with prosecutors from the department. I anticipate meeting with Ms. Maxwell in the coming days. Now, part of that statement as well, we had heard from Blanche saying that if she has information about anyone who has committed crimes against victims, he said the FBI and the DOJ will hear what she has to say. This is a new development, Kate, and this is exactly what we've been now hearing from not just, you know, Democrats and the broader American public, from the president's fiercest supporters. You had that graphic of some of the people who are pushing for and supporting that discharge position in the House to try and force a floor vote on this. I mean, this has now become an untenable position for the White House, this idea. And they're really their strategy for the last couple of weeks now of trying to move on from this subject. We have now seen the pressure really ratcheted up here. And now we are hearing from the Justice Department that they are planning to meet with Ghislaine Maxwell and see if they can get more information on what she knows. And specifically, as Blanche had said, about anyone who had also committed crimes against victims. I think, of course, a key question is, will this be enough? Because we have now heard from several different of the president's supporters, people like Steve Bannon, like Laura Loomer, but then also many of his supporters on Capitol Hill, Marjorie Taylor Greene, one of them, saying, you need to publish this. There needs to be more transparency. And what I found really interesting about, you know, I was watching some of what our colleague Manu Raju, he was catching up with Republicans on Capitol Hill. Many of them were saying Greene, but also Senator Josh Hawley was another example, saying that they are getting calls, Kate, from their constituents. Greene said that this is what she's been getting calls about more than anything else is to push for more transparency here. And you mentioned this. The president so far has again, really been trying to move on from this. He's been trying to change the Subject he's been telling his supporters, you know, don't be weaklings. We need to move on from this. But now it looks like the Justice Department is moving forward in trying to get more information on this beyond what we saw the president do last week, which was ask the Attorney General, Pam Bondi, to unseal some of the grand jury testimony and transcripts from the Epstein case. And we had heard then from many legal experts and others that that wouldn't be enough. We'll see if this quenches the thirst of many of his supporters. This call to interview Ghislaine Maxwell, this is a combination.

[Donald Trump]

It's the tariffs bringing back manufacturing to the US it's the full expensing in the one big beautiful bill, which I think is one of the most important things that we did. Companies can do 100% expensing for equipment, 100% expensing for factories. If you bring your factory back here, I think we had big pent up demand. We are in the middle of this incredible AI boom that I don't know whether you want to say this is the third, fourth, fifth industrial revolution. So we're seeing the hyperscaler spin like we never have before. And I think what's really gone unheard, unheralded here is the Trump administration's emphasis on deregulation. We are making it possible to build things in America again. For years, if you wanted to build a factory, a pipeline, a transmission grid, you were held up by permitting. And President Trump has given, whether it's epa, the energy interior, a mandate that these permits should get out within a month. So America is building things again. And I tell you, this is the way that countries get rich and stay rich is through long term investment and productivity.

[Kate Bolduan]

Want to read for you just more of that statement that we got this morning from the deputy Attorney General, Todd Blanch. He said, at the direction of Attorney General Bondi, this is a, quote, I have communicated with counsel for Ms. Maxwell to determine whether she would be willing to speak with prosecutors from the department. I anticipate meeting with Ms. Maxwell in the coming days. And then, Kate, we also got a statement from Glenn Maxwell's attorney, David Oscar Marcus. This is what he told cnn. He said, quote, I can confirm that we are in discussions with the government and that Ghislaine will always testify truthfully. We are grateful to in Trump for his commitment to uncovering the truth in this case. So again, of course, a couple key questions now about all of this. One is what exactly are they going to glean from this will Maxwell be truthful? Does she have ulterior motives? Of course. You mentioned she's in prison now for serving a 20 year sentence. You know, they have to determine what she says, whether it's credible and whether they can release it to the public. I'd remind you the president has now repeatedly said that he's giving the attorney general, Pam Bondi kind of it's up to her to decide if there's credible information to release. She can choose to do so. But all of this again is another question really is if this will be enough for the people have been pushing for this administration to release the Epstein files. That has really been what people have been asking for. You mentioned those Republican members in Congress who are pushing this effort to force a floor vote to have them release these Epstein files. We heard from many conservative Republicans, Trump allies, I should say, Marjorie Taylor Greene, Senator John Josh Hawk Hawley saying that they are getting calls, Kate, from their constituents about this, pressing this White House and this administration to be more transparent on the Epstein case. So what I think is very clear from the attorney General and the DoJ more broadly is doing here is they recognize that their position thus far of trying to get everyone to move on from this, from releasing that memo over two weeks ago now saying that Epstein died by suicide, that there was no so called clientless, they recognize that that is not enough. Enough people are now saying we need more in this story and this desire to get more information is not going away. So now it's really up to seeing what will Maxwell say, what would this meeting with her glean and whether or not that will be enough for the people who are again calling for far more transparency than this Trump administration has so far been willing to give.

[Steve Bannon]

This is the primal scream of a dying regime.

[Dave Brat]

Pray for our enemies because we're going medieval on these people. Reasons I got a free shot on.

[Steve Bannon]

All these networks lying about the people.

[Dave Brat]

The people have had a belly full of it.

[Steve Bannon]

I know you don't like hearing that.

[Dave Brat]

I know you try to do everything in the world to stop that, but.

[Steve Bannon]

You'Re not going to stop it. It's going to happen.

[Derek Harvey]

And where do people like that go.

[Dave Brat]

To share the big lie? MAGA MEDIA I wish in my soul, I wish that any of these people had a conscience.

[Steve Bannon]

Ask yourself what is my task and what is my purpose? If that answer is to save my country, this country will be saved.

[Dave Brat]

War ROOM here's your host, Stephen K. Ban. It's Tuesday, the 22nd of July, year of a Lord, 2025 just to add to the announcements this morning and understand they've been worked on I think for quite some time. Todd Blanche is was the president's lawyer. He and Emil Bove, as you remember, got him through all the most difficult years of the of the persecution of President Trump. Something I hope that the Justice Department, FBI is getting on top of helping assisting Tulsi Gabbard. More on that in a while. Derek Harvey's Colonel Derek Harvey's going to join us. Dave Bratt's going to join us. I want to just give an update. This is Maxwell's attorney, quote, her attorney David Oscar Marcus just told CNN I can confirm that we're in discussions with the government and that Ghislaine will always, will always testify truthfully. We are grateful to President Trump for his commitment to uncovering the truth in this case, end quote. We'll have more on that in a little while. Let's go to Signal, not Noise. Joe Lavorne joins us from the Treasury Department. Axios had a story. I don't know if the headline was actually correct, but the story is pretty interesting. But it dovetails with the secretary treasury said I think was on Maria. We covered this in the run up to the vote. The big beautiful bill about the supply side nature of the tax cut and particularly something that I think that was lost even on the business press didn't focus on enough the expensing of capital equipment, the expensing of entire factories. If people want to come here and get around the tariffs and actually build here, which is one of the reasons President Trump is putting up tariff barriers that if you want access to this market, either manufacture here or you're going to pay some sort of premium. And I think the secretary reiterated today the Axios piece is pretty smart when you get into it. It's got a bunch of buried leads that we could be because of what we've seen so far in the data and people taking advantage of this expensing of capital equipment and particularly office equipment and other things around manufacturing, you could be building for an absolute boom in economy just like you guys forecasted. Is that a correct assessment of this, Joe?

[Joe Lavorne]

Yes, Steve, thank you for having me. It is a correct assessment. The Axios article, I think the meat of it did a very good job of of hammering the key points that that we need to make that are that are accurate. I guess I saw that headline there. I would say that the it's overlooked data that's already consistent with a Capex comeback, a capital spending comeback. We've Already seen it. We're not predicting anything at this point. We're just highlighting the fact that the policies that we were going to implement, President Trump wanted to implement the one big beautiful bill is already paying dividends. You talked about the capex expensing. The secretary was mentioning that this morning. And what it meant is, is that effective Inauguration Day, you could expense 100% of what you were going to spend to build your business. Building that business, giving it capital is going to make workers more productive. It's going to foster a continued blue collar boom which has already begun. And this data already shows it's happened. In other words, companies were behaving in anticipation of the one big beautiful bill being passed. But importantly, that bill had that expensing dated back to when President Trump took office. That was a very smart move.

[Dave Brat]

So, yeah, let's go through this. This was, we framed this for the big beautiful bill. That it was the last chances. Scott Bessance on the show for years, it was the last chance really to have a supply side cut which really focused on production. And a big part of that was the expensing of capital equipment to make sure that manufacturer that we put an emphasis on manufacturing. And I just want to tell this is how we got into this discussion about business models and forecasts. People were talking about the CBO was saying, oh, we're going to grow at 1.7, 1.8%. Yet treasury and the administration said, hey, we think the spend, the growth could actually be 2.8, maybe over 3%, up to 3.5% in President Trump's first term. In 2019, when you had the impact of his first tax cut, you saw particularly that he grew it, I think an average, as you and I have discussed, at 2.8%. But most importantly, in the fall of 2019, as it started to peak, he got up to 3.4% growth. This is all predicated upon this. This is what makes that happen. You've got to incentivize corporations, you have to incentivize private equity. You have to incentivize people to put money into capital equipment. Once the money's in capital equipment workers, managers, etc. Take advantage of that capital and that's how you have growth. So that theory of the case that you guys argued, and quite frankly based upon historical data from the first Trump thing, and this is what the left doesn't want to focus on, and quite frankly, the businessman has done a terrible job about this. But this is the heart of the matter, right? To incentivize people to invest in capital equipment and then basically the workers, mid managers, et cetera, take advantage of that.

[Joe Lavorne]

Sir that's exactly right. And I'd say, Steve, this bill is even better than the first bill. The first bill was the Tax Cuts and Jobs act that President Trump pushed through. This one is better. Number one, President Trump wanted it on his desk July 4th, which he got. Number two, and that just includes the full expensing of capital equipment. But as Secretary Besson has highlighted, and this is very key, people need to know this, you also get full expensing if you break ground on a new factory that hadn't existed before. So to your point about supply side and investing in the future, the US is going to be a re industrialized manufacturing renaissance where capital comes here, both domestically and abroad to invest, to build out the infrastructure to be able to produce the goods and services that people want. And what's important when we talked about this Capex comeback, let me just give you a couple of numbers in the first quarter production of business.

[Dave Brat]

I'll tell you what. Joe, Joe, Joe, Joe, Joe, hang on for the numbers. I want to hold you through the break. I want to, I want to thank you, make sure everybody hears this in its entirety because it's so important. This is also President Trump's the what I say, the commercial aspects, the tariffs are inextricably linked with this because companies, international companies, foreign companies have a choice. You either move your manufacturing here to get through the golden door, right, which they're going to give you advantages on capex to do that, or if you don't, there'll be a toll call, a tariff to get here. And that's why I think it's over $100 billion already in tariffs and there's been no, no association with any rising prices whatsoever in the tariffs. So so far I don't know the theory of the case is working out. I certainly wish people that did this full time, like the business media, maybe, I don't know, the Wall Street Journal, cnbc, just don't have some random rando names would get on top of this and understand exactly what the theory of the case was and how it's coming to fulfillment. Short commercial break we're gonna go back to the Treasury Department.

[Steve Bannon]

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[Dave Brat]

Here's your host, Stephen K. Bannon. Okay, welcome back. Derek Harvey's going to join us. When we get into a lot of Tulsi, a lot of the upstand big breaking news in that obviously from the Justice Department we're going to get into all that. Also the President United States removed America from UNESCO. We're going to go live to Geneva in our own nor bin Laden is going to explain all that. I know that's a red letter day for everybody. Many years of working on this. Dave Bradstrom, we're getting some economics because this is good. The two things that have a massive impact on the on the midterms is obviously the economy and I want to talk about the recession rescissions and where are those before these guys go on holiday. By the way, I think the House is thinking of getting out of town. I'm not making this up. I think the House is leaving on Thursday and they're not back to after Labor Day. Not kidding, not kidding. With a couple of three appropriations bills still hanging out there and Dave Bradleby here. We're talking about economics. Also the situation in Texas now it's getting a national profile very, very, very serious. The Hill's got a good piece on it this morning. I've talked to Brian Harrison. We're going to try to Natalie's going to do the five o' clock show for us as currently scheduled. I'm doing the six with Joe Allen. A big announcement tomorrow, the AI action plan from the White House. We're covering that wall to wall. Tonight we're going to give you a preview of what how that will impact you and your family and the nation's future. Joe, let's go back to the numbers. The Axios, the Axios piece. The headline's a little cockeyed, but when you read the piece, it is very informative, particularly about what the plan here was and how it's starting to kick in. So walk us through the math as you have it right now, sir.

[Joe Lavorne]

Yes, Steve. So the, the fact is, the expectation of the one big beautiful bill that people have to understand is groundbreaking, literally because it expenses all kinds of capital, plants, equipment, factories, et cetera. It's retroactive to January. So it capex comeback, it's already here, it's already happening and people need to be aware of that because that positive business psychology, the animal spirits of the business cycle, if you will, will help foster and galvanize very strong growth. In the first quarter, the production of business equipment rose over 23% at an annual rate. When you have that kind of big gain, typically you see a real big retracement. In the second quarter that didn't happen. We grew 11%. So if you look at the first half growth in the production of equipment, we're up almost 17% at an annual rate. When we look at the GDP data, which is what economists focus on, and we look at that CapEx component, for the first quarter, it rose at a similar pace as this business equipment series, it rose 24%, actually 1% faster. What we have right now in the first half of the year, this is what your listeners need to know is a near 17%. When you combine both quarters, production of business equipment, CapEx, the lifeblood, the support of productivity growth and wages, all these great things we're seeing rose 17% at an annual rate. That is the fat excluding the pandemic, which can't look distort everything, we're running CAPEX spending right now at the fastest rate since 1997. So let that sink into people. 1997, that's how fast CAPEX is. And when you have that CAPEX growth and you get what economists call capital deepening, you're going to get stronger productivity. And when you have stronger productivity, you could pay your workers more. So this blue collar boom that we're seeing under President Trump and that Secretary Besson has talked about should continue and extend through the rest of this year and through President Trump's term and of course, hopefully long thereafter. Because as you highlighted earlier, these are supply side incentives designed to raise the speed limit for how fast this economy can grow. So when agencies like the CBO are predicting growth sub 2%, that to me, is from a totally different era. That doesn't make any sense to what we're seeing right now in the data.

[Dave Brat]

What should we. What do you make us smart here? When you look at your dashboard going forward the first six months, obviously. Obviously amazing. As you guys go forward on your dashboard, what are the two or three things we should focus on?

[Joe Lavorne]

So, number one, certainly Steve and the Axios piece was good and highlighted overlooked data. This business equipment series is very important. We're watching that. It comes out monthly within the GDP report, which we're going to get in a few weeks. For the second quarter, we want to look at equipment spending, or what's known as private business fixed investment. Very important. That's where all the one big beautiful bill is going to show up. Over time, we expect a rising manufacturing share of output. So you'll see broadly faster industrial production. You'll see things like the ISM Manufacturing Index. It's a qualitative survey that should move meaningfully above 50. And over time, we should see a lot more manufacturing jobs as the US Attracts that foreign capital. As there's more investment, that's more hiring, it's more building, it's more production.

[Dave Brat]

Joe, where do people track you over your social media? You're over there helping the secretary execute and implement the big beautiful bill.

[Joe Lavorne]

Where do people go at Lavorne Economics? Steve, at Lavornianomics.

[Dave Brat]

Joe, thank you so much. Very informative.

[Joe Lavorne]

My pleasure. Steve, thank you so much for having me. It's a pleasure. Thank you.

[Dave Brat]

Thank you. So if you take the secretary's interview with Maria and about that 100%, and that's what the business press is not, and they should. That's their job, right? To focus on that. You tie it to the Axios where they're talking about the data. Dave. Brett, this is what we've been talking. I want to get to the spending in a second because I'm not feeling it on the rescissions, but I want it because I. This, this strategy of President Trump is. It's not that it's complicated, but it's got a number of pieces that are coming together. And he kind of thought this through in his strategy. Number one, the terrorists and what we mean by that. It's commercial relationships with the world. We're the biggest consumer market. We're a, you know, we're inside the golden door, right? You got to pay a premium. He's given people a choice. Either bring your manufacturing back here to the United States of which we give you certain tax incentives, or you're going to pay some sort of premium and we're going to figure out what that premium is. And that's why even Trump's to the point now saying, hey, I love negotiating these deals, but I'm just going to send you a letter and this is what it's going to be. And I think the treasury already has got almost $100 billion of tariffs. You've got energy, right? Full spectrum energy dominance that Dave Walsh walks us through all the time. You've got this, the supply side tax incentive for capex capital expenditures. And in addition, you have to have the rescissions and the spending cuts, right, either through the appropriations process or outside of it. But let's go back to the productivity. This thing you've been harping on and hammering on for years and years and years. You've got to get money, you've got to get, you, you have to have cash spent on capital equipment. Therefore that means you're going to have, you're going to have capital equipment there, capital there that actual workers, managers, entrepreneurs can actually use. Sir?

[Tulsi Gabbard]

Yeah. No, Joe Lavornia was spot on. I like listening to him. He's as clear as can be. The only thing I would distinguish there is he's talking, you know, kind of short run. And he said that, right? A few years while President Trump is in. When I'm talking about productivity and mentioning Robert Gordon, he's the leading growth guy in the field on productivity, he's been working the field for 50 years. We've got long run productivity trend, long run trend productivity, that's the key term. People say brat's off. He's not looking at the right data now. I'm looking at the right data. It's been going down for 70 years in a row, right? So there's blips like President Trump in his first term when he did everything right. And we had the most striking feature, right, the one after capex. I want to see wages go up for the middle class worker, right? The working class, that, that's the key. And the left has never gotten near that one and President Trump did. And it's happening right now for all the reasons Joe just listed. So long run productivity, you're right, CBO has it at 1.7% for the next 20 years, right? So that's the long run trend, product trend of productivity growth. What causes that? What are the three causes of that in the macro growth literature, number one, capital investment. I'll just give you a short primer right there. China's got $100 trillion in capital, plant physical capital. The US only has 70 trillion. Right. So that's why they were grown. They had huge productivity growth, huge GDP growth because of that variable. Human capital is one third of economic growth. It's a disaster. In the United States, CEOs have been investing in plants, green stuff on their rooftops instead of in the workforce in their own communities. It's a disaster. You should get all over the CEOs in your region. If they're not investing in the workforce and they're saying we don't have American workers, that's disgrace. And then the third part, about a third of economic growth is, is productivity growth itself. Technological change, that's hard to measure, but they do a pretty good job in the, in the growth literature. And that you can just symbolizes the magnificent seven. Artificial intelligence is common. That's what we mean by technological growth. It makes both human capital and capital more efficient. But all of that goes to the wealthy. Right? The, the proceeds from technological growth goes to the venture capital crew, the Wall street crew, not to Main Street. And that's the part Trump is correcting with the tariffs and leveling the playing field and focusing on reshoring and bringing capital back. And it looks like a huge success in the short run. In the short run, it's a huge success.

[Dave Brat]

Yeah. The golden they, they refer to 1997. Remember in 1997, you had Newt Gingrich control the House. You had Bill Clinton and the president. You had Bob Rubin was his secretary, Treasury. You also had the end of the Cold War. So you had, you had potential domestic expansion there. You also had, that was the explosive years of the Internet. But you additionally, you had a Republican House that was able to manage Clinton on the, on the cost side and manage costs and spending. And that's what we had, I think four, I think we had four budget surpluses in a row that only ended when, when, when Bush came in. This is my point about rescissions. The whole package is coming together on kind of the supply side. The only part of this equation that's not happening right now is, is spending cuts. And we just passed a historic rescission bill, although as small as quite symbolic, my understanding is that they got a couple of rescissions backed up. And I don't think, you know, I don't know why people are leaving this Thursday. I don't know why they're leaving town before these because these rescissions are in 2025 fiscal year, this is now they have bigger rescissions packages. And if you add the rescissions in the cut and spending with what you're seeing on the supply side with the potential growth and productivity, this is the way you get a renaissance. But you also have to, you have to address the spending. You have to. And they've got a way to do it. Hey, I'm old fashioned. I want to go back and challenge the impediment dalman act of 1971. The one there were 72 when they had Nixon, the second coup when they had Nixon up against the wall. Anyway, short break. Colonel Derek Harvey, Dave Brat nor bin Laden, all of it this morning in the world.

[Steve Bannon]

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[Dave Brat]

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[Dave Brat]

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[Dave Brat]

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[Dave Brat]

Here's your host, Stephen K. Bannon. Okay, the president of the Republic of the Philippines is coming to the White House this morning. A very important meeting given the three island chain. The our shift. I think President Trump said it. We got to see it. I haven't seen it yet in the defense bill but to hemispheric defense the three island chain, the Philippines absolutely central in the fight against the Chinese Communist Party. In fact I would say even more than Taiwan, although Taiwan they're doing the not exercises, they're doing rehearsals. They're really head to head right now in the South China Sea is between the Filipino navy and the and the island of the Philippines and the Chinese Communist Party. They're coming today at 11, 11:15. We will cut for their formal arrival. What they do on the West Wing. And then I believe President Trump's going to do a press avail. If it's not on the schedule now, it will be. I'm sure President Trump will have people in, but that's a very important, very important given how critical the Philippines is to the national defense of the United States of America. And speaking as a sailor that spent a little bit of time in the, in the Philippines, in the Pacific Fleet back in the 70s, the. I got Derek Harvey here. Derek, I've got you here because, Colonel, I want to go through Tulsa. You know it better than anybody. What's happening. A lot of explosive developments in that. Understand Grassley is going to put out some more things today. His staff either today or tomorrow. So this is really starting to explode. But I got Brad here right now. You see us beginning to get on a roll, getting, I would say, the traction to get on a roll. And the way you need that is investment in capital equipment. Right. And production and manufacturing. So everything Trump's done to make America great again is built around returning America to a manufacturing superpower and not sending those jobs and those opportunities overseas, particularly to our, the mortal threat of the Chinese Communist Party. Brett continues, and he does this, he says the only thing could throw us off here is actually getting into a war. Now, we know the kinetic part of the Third World War is already on. The situation in Ukraine couldn't be more deadly and more serious. The situation now in, although it looks like the Persian side of it settled down for a while because of President Trump in Syria, in Gaza. I mean, this thing is heating up nonstop. So, Brett, make your case. Make your case. And I will have Derek respond to that. Make your case. The only thing to throw us off here is actually getting in a war because I thought given the size of the defense budget, America's basically on a wartime economy anyway. This is what our only industrial policy we have in this country is about defense. That's the trillion dollars that goes into the manufacturing of weapons. We have not beaten our swords into plowshares yet. Right. And artificial intelligence. And this is why Natalie's going to do the five. I got to get ready and do the six with Joe. Is that the AI action plan coming from the White House tomorrow? Let's be blunt. A lot of the artificial intelligence and the drive to it is to weaponize it and to use it as a, as a weapon, as almost any technology or any technological breakthrough is. So Brett, make your case. Why war is what could upend us for this. And then I want to have Harvey tell us how close we are to actually becoming engaged in a kinetic activity. Sir.

[Tulsi Gabbard]

Yeah. Well, as you no doubt know, Chicago economics and Austrian economics, which you love, it makes the important case that you better be using the price system. That's a little humor for Steve in the morning. China doesn't use the price system. Russia didn't use the price system. They're out of business. Japan got banking in bed with business and government too much with media and all that stuff. They're out of business. The US now is getting a increasingly large size of the government involved in your everyday life. That of course is lowering productivity. But war obliterates the price system. There are no more price signals, Right? Anybody that says war is good for productivity in the economy is just so off base, I cannot tell you. Of course the warmongers are going to say that it's good for the defense industry. It is short time, it is short term spending. Short term spending growth of g government will go up, but it is not long run productivity enhancing in any way, shape or form. There are also other absurd articles saying that the immigration. Immigration invasion, right. If we reduce the border invasion of 20 million people, our GDP will go down. Equally wrong headed of course GDP will go down if you get rid of 20 million people. But GDP per capita per person is the only thing you're worried about. We're worried about American workers welfare. When 20 million people go out where we're spending vast sums of money on them like war, it's totally inefficient. It lowers the living standards for American workers. And President Trump is hitting it across the board. And I'll just mention the tariff piece. The G20 people need to go look this up. Bank of America had this chart. It's not just the Trump tariffs in Navarro. In that chart the G20 is 80% of world GDP. The richest 20 countries, they have 200 to 300% higher tariff and non tariff barriers on the US than we have on them. Right. So what Trump is doing is long overdue. He's bringing us productivity across the board. But it's can we keep it? And the warmongers are beating the drums. Israel and the US took out Mosaddeq in 53. It's been a nightmare in the Middle east ever since. Israel is supposed to be a light to the nations. We're supposed to be a light to the nations, not a bomber of nations. So I'm looking forward to hear what the great Derek Harvey has to say.

[Dave Brat]

By the way, along those lines. This is the whole thing about the Brics. When you talk about the G20, the G7 versus the G20, I think you're seeing solidify right now. This is why it's so important for us to get to a Russian rapprochement. The west versus the BRICS nations are becoming a geopolitical. This is why President Trump was so upset with what they tried to do in a very sophisticated way. You couldn't fool Trump. People around him saying hey, they're not going to come out and say de dollarization. They're going to do these bilateral deals in their own currencies. They're going to hedge that by buying, buying gold at record rates. To understand this folks, this is the part that you got to understand. Go to birchgold.com Bannon the end of the Dollar Empire seven free installments. We're working on the eighth. In fact we're having a team meeting tomorrow afternoon to make sure that we drive this and get it to you quicker. You have to understand the BRICs, the de dollarization movement, the weakness in the dollar of what's causing that, the spending and the de dollarization and how the world is trying to hedge themself against the American dollar. You need to find out how to hedge yourself up against financial insecurity and turbulence. Birchgold.com Bannon and the dollar Empire get to Philip Patrick and the team. That's what we set you up to do. All of our sponsors make a commitment that give full access to you to senior level folks. So take advantage of it. End of the Dollar Empire Birch Gold, Derek Harvey then if you, if, if, if war. He's making the case that we're actually at actually on a war footing. I'm not so sure I totally agree with that. But he's saying war could completely blow up Trump's economic plan. How close? You're not just our intelligence guy. People should know when you're at NSC and over at House intel with Nunez, you're considered one of the best strategic thinkers because you're a safe pair of hands that kind of think things through and your hair is never on fire. So how close do you think we are actually being sucked in to the kinetic part of the third World War, sir?

[Derek Harvey]

Well, I agree with, you know Dave that there's a real challenge here. If we get into a major conflict overseas regardless of where it's at and we would not want to get into A conflict with a peer, be it Russia or China, I don't think we're close to that in either case. Right now. I'm very troubled about us getting potentially sucked in now with Ukraine in a way that the administration did not want to. And so they're trying to work through that with the sanctions that they've threatened to impose in about 45, 43 days now on Russia, as well as some other things, and then increasing the arms sales to NATO countries that then can transfer them to. To Ukraine. But, you know, we need to contain that. I still don't see a way out in that. In that conflict right now. There has to be some sort of an agreement, and I don't see a pathway to victory for Ukraine, but I'll set that aside. I think that is containable. China has got internal challenges, economic and political. And when a country is having internal and political challenges, and someone like President Xi, who was invested in so much on this idea of unifying all of ancient China to include current Taiwan, you know, that's a potential spark plug. And they continue to be aggressive in that region. And I think what the president is doing is really important. We need, you know, President Trump is very clear, I think, about his red lines, particularly in private conversations. And, you know, being clear about that and being steadfast and a strong leader and communicating is part of the issue. The other part is having the capability. And I think if we can settle things down in the Middle east to some degree, and we've gone a long ways there with Israel being able to reset the table with our major support in dealing with the Iran problem, at least for the next five to seven years, in my view. The Abraham Accords and expansion of that. There's opportunities there with Syria and with Lebanon, but. But those are both going to be very hard projects. But that should allow us to shift more to the Asia Pacific, something that we've had the desire to do, but not really the means to do. And as far as industrialization and investment in DoD, we are still lacking in investment and building up the types of capabilities in the Navy and the Air Force that are really needed for maintaining deterrence in Asia, as well as having the arm stocks to do support, you know, contingencies, as well as a possibility of a major campaign. So I think there needs to be more investment in DoD, but it has to be the right investment. And I think that's where, you know, you get parochialism in the Armed Services Committee and the Senate Armed Services Committee that, you know, prevent us from doing the Hard right things to invest in our military capabilities.

[Dave Brat]

How do you, how do you square it with the American people? We're talking about spending cuts and rescissions. And you know, the first package was USAID and PBS and npr. The second package I understand is going to be more maybe green new scam things. And this is why I think the rescissions package ought to be brought up asap. When you have almost a, you have President Trump that's been very articulate about a hemispheric defense and that would use the vast Pacific as really the centerpiece for our hemisphere against the Chinese Communist Party. With the three island chain, you add Greenland, access to the Arctic in the Panama Canal and of course allies in South America, you've really got it. But the NDAA doesn't reflect that. So when you sit there and talk about, look, I'm with Captain Fennell on we need a naval shipbuilding. I mean, we're both of us are Pacific Fleet sailors. We understand what you have to do with the Navy to build it up. But when you look at the we're at a trillion dollars right now and it seems like the Pentagon, the building and I think this is because of the power CENTCOM is just refute that pivot to Asia. Obama didn't do it. You know, there may be many reasons for that with Joe Biden. We don't know if they were, you know, how corrupt that was, how embedded with the cc, but it didn't happen. President Trump tried and did a lot in his first term, but there's clearly massive resistance today. I mean, how do you give me a minute on that? We're going to go to break once you stick around. How can you do that and, and have investments when we're already at a trillion dollars?

[Derek Harvey]

Well, I think part of it is, you know, partnering with our allies and friends in the region. And that means the United Arab Emirates, the Saudis, you know, those members of the Gulf Cooperation Council, letting them finance things, you know, for other allies and partners, pay for some of the support structure and influence operations. And, you know, we can be more of an orchestrator. We've had some of these ideas and laid them out in times before and there's a way to do that. But, you know, there is such an entrenchment in the Pentagon, you know, people not wanting to really change what they've been doing for decades. And, you know, there's, there is an interest in staying engaged there in a way that, you know, I think harms our overall interests. It doesn't mean that we, we absolutely can't abandon it because we do have interests there. And we could talk about that, too, but I think, you know, there has to be real reform, not just talk about reform. And it can't be on the margins in the DOD project.

[Dave Brat]

Okay, we're gonna take a short commercial break. Colonel Harvey's with us, Dave Bratz with us. Dave's gonna have to bounce, so we'll get him in here in the D Block. Nor Bend line is going to join us from Geneva. We are out of UNESCO. Short break.

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[Dave Brat]

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[Tulsi Gabbard]

Yeah. On the CIA, FBI. I think it's the greatest historical corruption case in US History and the American people all voted for accountability there. I'll just keep it short there because I want to get to the Birch gold, our friends and the, the inflation piece you brought up. Inflation is roughly speaking too much money chasing too few goods, right? So too much money, you got a ton of money going after a few goods, goods. So that bids up the prices of the goods. That's inflation. But if you got the same amount of money and more goods, guess what happens? Inflation goes away. That's what Trump is doing, Right. So that's what the Wall Street Journal should focus on. It's fairly simple. They can, they can handle that. Now second, the one Trump wants, lower interest rates. The way to achieve that, and this is terribly hard, but the spending, right, we're doing $2 trillion deficits for the next 10 years locked into the budget. That is inflationary, right? That's expansionary deficit spending. If you get rid of that deficit spending though, you might go into recession. So here's where the Fed, the Federal Reserve could actually be useful. Trump needs to make a deal with the Fed, say I'm going to cut some spending but in, in tandem with that I need you to lower interest rates. And then that puts the Congress on the hook to reduce spending for the first time ever. It's very hard. Like defense spending. I was in Congress because it's employment. There's, there's contracts made with big, big powerful people that they don't want to.

[Dave Brat]

Hang on, hang on, hang on, hang on, hang on. The whole thing with, the whole thing with the CBO, if the, if there's $2 trillion deficits per year for the next 10 years, I'm not so sure we make it right. I think the theory of the case, and that's what we had Joe on, on the supply side, you're growing at over 3, you know, growing over 3%. You have the tariffs that if people are not bringing here to manufacture, you're getting tariff revenue. You're having lower energy costs because you're still doing full dominant, you know, full dominant, full spectrum dominance on energy. Right. And you're doing deconstruction, administrative state, massive deregulation. Plus either do it through the future appropriations process because it's all out there to cut, or do it through rescissions or impoundments. You're going to have to cut the spending, but you've got so many other things are going to drive revenue that I don't think internally they're looking at $2 trillion deficits for the next 10 years. If they are, then, hey, go to Birch Gold, take your phone and nine ban in a 989898 right now. But I don't think internally, I don't think that's the way they look at things. Do you, sir?

[Tulsi Gabbard]

Internally, within the administration, I agree with what you just said and that that is a rosy scenario that assumes the is going to behave themselves, not manufacture more crises, not bring about a war in the courts, that we don't go into war, that we don't have other natural disasters. That's all, you know, all else held constant, as we say in economics. So, yeah, we're doing all the right things. Will it last? Will we hold the house? Will we educate the American people that you've got to do this to save this republic? All of that's on the risk side. But yeah, if Trump is able to put all this in place, I mean, you can do the math. It's still very hard to grow your way out of $60 trillion in debt at the end of that 10 years. Right. So I think you'd have to be five, six. I'll, you know, I'll bring in an Excel spreadsheet and show you what 3% growth gets you, what 4, what 5.6. And you need some explosive growth to do that.

[Dave Brat]

Yeah, let's, let's do some perturbations. I'm not going to, I'm not sure. Let's start with the 30. Let's start with the 37 trillion will build off that. But yeah, let's model this out and we'll walk through with people. I think people, this is the type of signal that they need. And that's a set, that's a baseline and a set of perturbations around it that people can say, okay, I can understand that. And then that's what you do a dashboard over and you, and you monitor that every day to see what's happening. I know the president's very focused on a, on a rate cut. I just don't know if that's going to happen given too late. Powell, give me a minute on Tulsi Gabbard and her heroism in putting this out about the coup driven by, driven by Obama and Clinton.

[Tulsi Gabbard]

Yeah, well, I just get, I don't get angry too often, but when I see people ripping on Tulsi Gabbard, there's no finer human being. We had her at Liberty last year. She is just so charming and friendly and loving to everybody. And on top of that, she's powerful, courageous, intelligent. The whole. She's just, just the best leader you could have. And so when I hear Senator Mark Warner saying, you know, she didn't know what she's talking about, he's the one that missed Russiagate. He's the senior member of an intelligence committee and he's ripping on her for his mistakes. The left always does this, but the American people keep voting for the same people who have made these colossal mistakes. So I just applaud her. She's doing everything right. I think she's got the good goods. The American people want to see consequences. We have to see not just the talking. We have to see action and people pay for crimes. And I think it's coming. I think it's coming. There's too much there, by the way.

[Dave Brat]

If you don't, the people are going to be too Disputed day Brat your social media. Where do people get you?

[Tulsi Gabbard]

Yeah, I'll put up the latest charts. Brad. Economics on Getter and on X.

[Dave Brat]

It's amazing. Dave, Brett, thank you, sir. Appreciate you taking the time. The next hour will be more intense than the first President's going to welcome the president of the Philippines. I'm sure they're going to do a press avail. Colonel Harvey is going to stick around. We're going to get into the coup and nor Ben Laden from Geneva, the United States of America has withdrawn after a 90 day review, has finally withdrawn from UNESCO, the United Nations Education Fund Short break. Back in my moment.

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