Episode 4669: GDP Up 3% And Private Sector Growth

Summary

Podcast Summary: Bannon’s War Room Episode 4669: GDP Up 3% And Private Sector Growth Release Date: July 30, 2025

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Introduction

In Episode 4669 of Bannon’s War Room, host Stephen K. Bannon delves into the recent economic developments, focusing on the impressive GDP growth of 3% in the second quarter and the robust expansion of the private sector. Joined by economist E.J. Antoni and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessant, the discussion centers on the factors driving this economic resurgence, the impact of supply-side tax cuts, and the implications for future growth.

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Key Topics and Discussions

1. Impressive GDP Growth

   • Steve Bannon kicks off the episode by highlighting the significance of the 3% GDP growth, emphasizing its alignment with President Trump's economic objectives of supply-side tax cuts and robust economic expansion. He states, “[...] you need minimum like 3% growth. You have to have 3% growth or higher” (00:00).

   • E.J. Antoni echoes this sentiment, noting, “We’ve got a stronger than expected GDP number, 3% for the second quarter initial read. That’s up from a half percent in the first quarter. 2.6% was what was forecast” (01:13).

2. Supply-Side Economics and Tax Cuts

   • Bannon underscores the role of supply-side tax cuts in fostering economic growth, arguing against critics who label them as risky. He asserts, “Now that is a, that’s what a supply side tax cuts about” (00:57).

   • Scott Bessant contributes by explaining the private sector's pivotal role, stating, “All of the growth that we have seen this year is coming from the private sector” (06:05).

3. Inflation and Economic Stability

   • The discussion shifts to inflation rates, with Bannon noting, “the GDP price index was only 2% and the expectation was 2.2” (01:27). He praises the dual achievement of economic growth and controlled inflation.

   • Scott Bessant further elaborates, “We have not seen the economy collapse and we have not seen inflation skyrocket. Instead, we’ve seen exactly the opposite of both of those two” (09:21).

4. Employment and Job Growth

   • E.J. Antoni highlights the ADP jobs report, mentioning a revised figure of 104,000 private sector job growth against an SR estimate of 64,000 (02:55).

   • Scott Bessant discusses the sectoral distribution of job growth, emphasizing gains in leisure and hospitality, financial activities, and trade, transportation, and utilities (03:53).

   • The trio underscores the return of American citizens to the workforce, attributing it to policies that reduce reliance on foreign labor.

5. Private vs. Public Sector Growth

   • E.J. Antoni emphasizes the dominance of private sector growth over government spending, stating, “The private sector is delivering literally all of the economic growth in 2025” (06:05).

   • Bannon adds, “Private sector growth, not put. When Biden, these guys went on MSNBCNC and they’re talking about, oh, we got growth, we got growth. It always came from more government spending” (20:15).

6. Trade Deals and Tariffs

   • Scott Bessant discusses recent trade deals with major partners like Japan and the EU, highlighting their contribution to the 3% GDP growth (36:03).

   • Bannon connects these deals to the broader strategy of economic revitalization, mentioning, “With tariffs in a closed border [...] the re-Americanization of the labor force” (09:21).

7. Future Outlook and Challenges

   • E.J. Antoni remains optimistic about continued growth, anticipating further investment surges from upcoming legislation (08:38).

   • However, Bannon introduces a cautionary note on energy demands driven by AI and data centers, predicting potential power shortages by 2030 (23:39).

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Notable Quotes

• Steve Bannon: “Remember, President Trump’s entire program is on turning around the doldrums of the Biden economy, doing a supply side tax cut and getting to 2.83, three and a half percent growth.” (00:00)

• E.J. Antoni: “This GDP report, I mean, really is an absolute blockbuster, completely defies expectations.” (06:05)

• Scott Bessant: “There is no doubt that this is some success. We’re seeing more horsepower, we’re seeing better equities.” (02:21)

• Steve Bannon: “The private sector is growing faster than public sector spending. Cut the spending and you’re going to get growth.” (31:34)

• E.J. Antoni: “What you literally need to do is have the government do nothing, get out of the way.” (06:05)

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Insights and Conclusions

The episode presents a bullish outlook on the U.S. economy, attributing the recent GDP growth and job gains to President Trump's policies, particularly supply-side tax cuts and strategic trade deals. The emphasis is placed on the resilience and expansion of the private sector in driving economic momentum, contrasted with reduced government spending.

Inflation rates remain controlled, aligning with the goals of maintaining economic stability while fostering growth. Employment data reflects a positive trend, with significant job creation in key sectors and a reinvigoration of the American workforce.

However, the discussion does acknowledge emerging challenges, particularly the escalating energy demands linked to technological advancements like AI, which could pose future constraints if not addressed proactively.

Overall, the episode underscores a pivotal economic inflection point, celebrating the achievements of current policies while remaining vigilant about sustaining and enhancing growth trajectories.

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Conclusion

Bannon’s War Room Episode 4669 offers a comprehensive analysis of the current economic landscape, highlighting substantial GDP growth and private sector expansion as indicators of a recovering and thriving economy. Through expert insights and data-driven discussions, the episode paints a picture of optimism grounded in strategic policy implementations, while also identifying areas that require ongoing attention to ensure sustained prosperity.

Transcript

[Steve Bannon]

Remember, President Trump's entire program is on turning around the doldrums of the Biden economy, doing a supply side tax cut and getting to 2.83, three and a half percent growth. The American economy to be robust, to be replacing jobs, to keep unemployment down, to keep the whole apparatus of the whole project moving forward, you need minimum like 3% growth. You have to have 3% growth or higher. And particularly in Scott Besson's plan, a Treasury you need, and I think Chip, Chip agrees, is three and a half percent. But even at three percent you start to get ahead of where, of where you're growing the economy and tax revenues and tariff revenues higher than you're adding deficits from spending. Now that is a, that's what a supply side tax cuts about. People say, well that's very risky. Well, it's not, it's not, it's not risky in the fact of you understand the elements that you're putting in there. Up 3%. Up 3%. Better than expected. That would be the highest level since 3Q24, March when it was up 3.1% on the consumption side, up 1.4. Very close to estimates. Up 1.4 would be the best since last quarter of 24.

[E.J. Antoni]

Well, we've got a stronger than expected GDP number, 3% for the second quarter initial read. That's up from a half percent in the first quarter. 2.6% was what was forecast.

[Steve Bannon]

Now again GDP.

[E.J. Antoni]

This is the first read of the.

[Steve Bannon]

Second quarter coming in at 3%.

[E.J. Antoni]

That is better than expected.

[Steve Bannon]

2 point. I want to bring it out and Johnson Markets are certainly watching this, right? Yeah, Goldilocks, because I would add to that, Cheryl, that the GDP price index was only 2% and the expectation was 2.2. In other words, we have an economy growing at what you say, 3%. We have inflation at 2%. That's the best of both worlds. So I'm very positive on that report, at least in the moment. The left and people don't like the president and don't want things to work and you know, like Senator Elizabeth Warren will come on and say inflation's out.

[E.J. Antoni]

Of control and the economy is getting.

[Steve Bannon]

Killed by, by what's happening, by these tariffs, this 3% with the market at new highs. And really we haven't seen inflation go.

[E.J. Antoni]

Up back to three.

[Steve Bannon]

Maybe it will this week. Maybe we'll see it.

[E.J. Antoni]

But none of these things, none of.

[Steve Bannon]

These horrible things have happened, but they still talk like it's happening. It's amazing. Well, the important there's an important lesson there. Don't pick a congressman to be your money manager at that's what I would say. But in the end, Congress has their own reasons to point out certain things. And the Democrats, of course, as you pointed out, really don't want to see the current administration have some success. But there is no doubt that this is some success. We're seeing more horsepower, we're seeing better equities. Inflation. Inflation really hasn't changed much in the last year or so.

[E.J. Antoni]

Yeah, beat on the ADP number here.

[Scott Bessant]

104,000 versus 64,000 SR estimate and reversing.

[E.J. Antoni]

The negative number from last month.

[Steve Bannon]

I'll talk about the revision in a second.

[Scott Bessant]

But the good sector doing what it's.

[Steve Bannon]

Been doing about plus 31,000.

[E.J. Antoni]

Service sector 74,000.

[Scott Bessant]

And there's the non farm payroll estimate. Remember, ADP is only estimating private payrolls and not really even trying to mimic.

[Steve Bannon]

The bls, just doing its own thing.

[Scott Bessant]

And saying here's what our data show about national job growth.

[E.J. Antoni]

June was revised to minus 23 from the original minus 33.

[Steve Bannon]

Small business back in the game here.

[E.J. Antoni]

Plus 12,000 have been down the prior two month.

[Scott Bessant]

Medium and large business both about Both.

[E.J. Antoni]

Both at 46,000.

[Scott Bessant]

By industry.

[Steve Bannon]

Well there's leisure and hospitality again plus 46,000.

[E.J. Antoni]

Financial activities plus 28.

[Scott Bessant]

Trade, transportation and utilities up 18,000. Construction part of that goods producing number that we told you. And the weird number here, the education.

[Steve Bannon]

Health service is down by 38,000. That has been a perennial source of job growth. Looking at wage gains, job stares remaining unchanged plus 4.4%. But if you change jobs, you get a 7% raise. Raise. That's up 210 from the prior month. ADP chief economist Neela Richardson writing in the report.

[E.J. Antoni]

Our hiring and pay data are broadly.

[Steve Bannon]

Indicative of a healthy economy. Employers have grown more optimistic that consumers will remain resilient. This is the primal scream of a dying regime. Pray for our enemies because we're going medieval on these people. You're just not going to free shot all these networks lying about the people. The people have had a belly full of it. I know you don't like hearing that. I know you try to do everything in the world to stop that, but you're not going to stop it. It's going to happen.

[E.J. Antoni]

And where do people like that go.

[Steve Bannon]

To share the big lie?

[Scott Bessant]

MAGA Media I wish in my soul.

[E.J. Antoni]

I wish that any of these people had a conscience.

[Steve Bannon]

Ask yourself what is my task and what is my purpose? If that answer is to save my country, this country will be saved. War Room here's your host, Stephen K. Banner. It's Wednesday, the 30th of July, year overlord 2025. We're gonna go momentarily. I think at like around 10:30 the great met Boyle at Breitbart will be interviewing Scott Bessant, Secretary of the treasury, former contributor to the war room. Around 10:30 on this breaking day of the Federal Reserve is going to come out. And of course, we got numbers, GDP numbers and adp, the early look at employment numbers. I'm seeing some pattern recognition. Remember the number 3%. And look, it's too early for a lot of the bbb, the bill, the big beautiful bill to kick in. But from tariffs, animal spirits, you're starting to see it. E.J. and Tony joins us this morning. E.J. walk us through both the GDP and the and the labor number, sir.

[E.J. Antoni]

Well, Steve, thanks so much for having me. This GDP report, I mean, really is an absolute blockbuster, completely defies expectations. And it's not only a good headline number, it has good internals as well. And we can talk about some of those. So we got a three handle today. We were up 3.0%. A lot of people thought we couldn't even get that by the fourth quarter of this year. And we already have it right now. Much of what happened in this report was a reversal of the first quarter. In the first quarter, there was front running of tariffs, there were import surges. And all, again, all of that has completely reversed. And so just as imports subtracted from GDP in the first quarter, the lack of imports added in the second quarter to that GDP number. And so if we look at the overall trend, Steve, what we find again is a lot of positive news. We find that consumer spending is up. We find that government spending as measured by government purchases is actually flat for the year. In fact, it's off like a tiny fraction of a percent, like, you know, a tenth of a percent, maybe a few hundredths of a percent. But, but the fact is government is not growing here. The private sector is delivering literally all of the economic growth in 2025. There were people who told us that if government doesn't keep spending, we're going to have a recession, the economy is going to collapse. They were absolutely wrong. Instead, what we're seeing is personal income growing. Not only is personal income growing, Steve, but even after adjusting for inflation, in other words, real personal income is still up. It was up 3% in the second quarter. That was enough to lift real disposable incomes and even push the savings rate to its highest level in a year. So although a lot of people are still hurting, I don't mean to say that everything is all sunshine and rainbows. It's not. We're in a pretty deep hole after four years of Biden. But that being said, things are really moving in the right direction here, Steve. It really is remarkable that after just six months we've had this much of an economic turnaround. And so incomes are going up again, even after adjusting for inflation, more people are able to save. That's really, really good news. It's not to say everybody's doing okay, they're not. But things are finally moving in the right direction. And that is absolutely phenomenal news. And we haven't even seen the effects of the big beautiful bill kick in, as you were just talking about. We haven't even yet seen the increase in investment that that's going to deliver. The real driver of long term economic growth, Steve, is what we call fixed private investment. So that would be investment that, that doesn't include things like inventory, for example. And within fixed investment, we can even exclude residential investment. So not talk about building homes. We just want to talk about non residential. So building factories, building equipment, all of that, that did not go up very much in the second quarter. It was only up a fraction of a percent. But we can expect that to go up big time in the third quarter because now we have full expensing of things like plant and equipment that's going to provide a huge tax incentive for folks to build stuff here in the U.S. to manufacture here in the U.S. i mean, things are really looking bright for the second half of 2025.

[Steve Bannon]

You know, I was with you, I didn't think that 3%. I kept using 3% and eventually 3.4 or above. Because as you remember, and we talk about it all the time, in President Trump's first term, the average was 2.8% growth. The at the fourth quarter of 2019, when things are really converging and coming together, it was 3.4%. So we thought it was achievable. It was going to take a while. I said on the show, I think a week ago, I talked to a lot of businessmen and real estate people about exactly what you just said that that they're getting their phones are ringing off the hook. People are looking to either take old abandoned plants or facilities that were left, maybe not max, you know, used to maximum capacity, and they're looking to purchase capital equipment and to expand production, to expand actual capital investment, which is You've drilled into our heads, ej, is absolutely the essential thing you have to do. And that would actually do it. Now you full expenses. But you feel the implications of that, I don't know, in the fourth quarter or the first quarter of next year. This starts off with a bang. And folks, what we talk about this is like when we talk about Birch Gold. It's not the price of gold, it's the converging forces that, that drive it. The same thing here at the economy on the gdp. It's the converging forces. What you have in here, ej, you can tell you have the closing of the border and the self deportations of, you know, a ton of these illegal alien invaders are just going home because they understand it's gonna be tough. This is why, just look at the freeways in la. That's where you're starting to see wages. Hey, things aren't slowing down. They're picking up. And American citizens are getting those jobs. And you're seeing that now from the, you know, the lack of this relentless pressure of illegal aliens coming across hundreds of thousands coming across the border every day. You're starting to see, they're starting to see the initial impact of the tariffs and the people saying, hey, I want to avoid the 15% tariff, I want to build a facility here. Let's get some, let's start talking to people about long term, you know, capital investment. This is all converging together, right? If we get our financial house in order, you could turbo charge this. Your thoughts on that, E.J.

[E.J. Antoni]

Steve, I think that's exactly right. Look at how much the private sector is growing when we prevent government from growing. In other words, we're giving the private sector the breathing room that it needs to expand and to grow and to increase prosperity. All you literally need to do is have the government do nothing, get out of the way. And as the Trump administration has done that so successfully, whether it's the President or the Treasury Secretary or the heads of the other departments and agencies who have all issued these directives to get the spending down, it is having remarkable effects and very, very quickly as well. Another thing, Steve, since you mentioned the tariffs, so many people thought that this was going to cause runaway inflation. The inflation number here in this report, one of the measurements that we can use for inflation is the price index for gdp. The increase there, the rate of increase fell by almost half. It's down to 2%. It was almost 4% in the first quarter. And even that honestly had very little to do with the Trump administration. Most of that increase was due to prices jumping in the month of January and obviously President Trump didn't even take over until the end of that month. So much of that Q1 inflation was just baked into the cake by Inauguration Day. So what we've seen is the exact opposite of what all the doomsayers told us was going to happen. We have not seen the economy collapse and we have not seen inflation skyrocket. Instead, we've seen exactly the opposite of both of those two. And part of the reason for that is another thing that you touched on, which is the re privatization and the re Americanization, if you want to call it that, of our labor market. And what we've seen now is not only an increase in the number of jobs, a steady increase in the number of jobs, while the federal workforce, the number of bureaucrats has been declining every month of this year. Not only have we seen more jobs, but it's more Americans getting those jobs. We're no longer reliant on on inexpensive low skill or no skill labor from abroad flooding in to keep costs down, whether it's labor costs or other costs. Instead what we're seeing is an increase in good paying jobs and an increase in the number of Americans getting those jobs. And that's really getting confirmed not only by the, the publicly available data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. We're increasingly seeing that from private sector sources as well, whether it's the payroll processing companies, ADP or paychecks with an X, or its other sources like purchasing man, purchasing manager indexes, what we call PMIs. We're seeing it in the Federal Reserve bank data, the regional Federal Reserve banks. Again, I don't want to say that everything is sunshine and roses. It's in rainbows. It's not. There's a lot of problems in the economy. We've dug ourself a very deep hole and it's going to take a while to dig ourselves out of it. But what I can say, Steve, is that the downward trajectory has stopped. We've leveled out and we're back on the upswing. It's going to take us time, I understand that, to get back to where we were in 2019. But again, things are moving in the right direction.

[Steve Bannon]

EJ Hang on for one second. We'll take a short break. I know you got to bounce, you're a wanted man today. But I got just a couple more questions on the other side. EJ is 100% correct. And remember Liberation Day on, on April 1st and now August 1st. They're coming down to it. Short break EJ on the other side this July there is a global summit of BRICS nations in Rio de Janeiro. The block of emerging superpowers including China, Russia, India and Persia are meeting with the goal of displacing the United States dollar as the global currency. They're calling this the Rio Reset. As BRICS nations push forward with their plans, global demand for US dollars will decrease, bringing down the value of the dollar and your savings. While this transition won't not happen overnight, but trust me, it's going to start in Rio. The Rio Reset in July marks a pivotal moment when BRICS objectives move decisively from a theoretical possibility towards inevitable reality. Learn if diversify your savings into gold is right for you. Birch Gold Group can help you move your hard earned savings into a tax sheltered IRA and precious metals claim. Your free info kit on gold by texting my name Bannon. That's B A N N o N to 989-898 with an A plus rating with the Better Business Bureau and tens of thousands of happy customers led Birch Gold army with a free no obligation info kit on owning gold before July and the Rio reset. Text Bannon B A N N O N 298-9898 do it today. That's the Rio reset. Text Bannon at 989-898 and do it today.

[E.J. Antoni]

Kill America's voice Family Are you on Getter yet?

[Scott Bessant]

No. What are you waiting for?

[E.J. Antoni]

It's free, it's uncensored, and it's where.

[Steve Bannon]

All the biggest voices in conservative media are speaking out. Download the Getter app right now. It's totally free. It's where I put up exclusively all of my content 24 hours a day. Want to know what Steve Bannon's thinking? Go to Getter. That's right. You can follow all of your favorites. Steve Bannon, Charlie Kirk, Jack Posovic and so many more.

[E.J. Antoni]

Download the Getter app now. Sign up for free and be part of the movement. You know, I always watch and see who buys the New York Post because.

[Steve Bannon]

It tells me the people want an.

[E.J. Antoni]

Alternative to people like you or me. They want alternative, they want the Trumpian view. And maybe they want to expose themselves to the Trumpian view so they can expose the weaknesses they've got.

[Steve Bannon]

But also, to be honest with you.

[E.J. Antoni]

The country is moving towards Trump.

[Steve Bannon]

These polls that come out and show him not doing well, I don't, I don't buy that.

[E.J. Antoni]

I think strength, his strength is still greater than the Democratic strength.

[Steve Bannon]

He is a stronger public figure than The Democratic people. I mean, Obama still has tremendous charisma, but Trump has strength.

[E.J. Antoni]

And I think that's what all voters look for. But they want a president who is a strong figure, and he's got it.

[Steve Bannon]

Okay, let me have it. Let me have it. Thank you, Denver. Right there. I wanted to play that because it's about the animal spirits. I want this audience to understand something point blank. You did this. This is your win. You backed Trump in the darkest days and on Liberation Day on April 1, when, you know, all the geniuses were mocking us, oh, this is terrible. Trump doesn't know what he's doing. It's going to go to a depression. Right? You hammered through this, and EJ Antoni is absolutely correct. This is not an endpoint. It's all a process. But we've hit a inflection point already, and a big part of that is the animal spirits. This is the core of capitalism, to unleash the animal spirits of the entrepreneur, of the American worker. E.J. antoni, how important is that in this beginning? Because you can start to see we ain't, we ain't in the sunlit uplands yet, but baby ahead, you can see it. It's in the far distance. But you know, you're on a path now. You're on a journey. E.J.

[E.J. Antoni]

And Tony and Steve, that's all the entrepreneur needs. As long as he knows that he's going to be able to keep what he earns, as long as he knows he's going to be able to, to benefit from his own inventions, let's say, or the work of his labor, he is going to go ahead and do those things. Thomas Sowell famously said that wealth is created when those who know how to do it are free to do so. That's it. Again, this is all about government getting out of the way and unleashing those animal spirits. You don't need to create them. They're naturally there. It's part of the human condition. Humans are born into poverty and we desire to get out of it. And if you simply allow people to do so, if you respect people's property rights, for example, then they will go ahead and they will achieve those ends. And that's precisely what we're seeing right now. As you get government out of the way, whether it's taxation or regulation, you are going to see this economy continue to take off.

[Steve Bannon]

Give me the two or three things you looked at in this GDP report that you say, hey, this has given me comfort, that I can see the arc that we're on. I see the path that we're on. What are the ones make us smart here? EJ what, what's your big takeaways from this?

[E.J. Antoni]

This is entirely private sector growth this year. The government hasn't grown at all. So that's absolutely phenomenal news. Again, all of the growth that we have seen this year is coming from the private sector. What a stark contrast that is to the Biden administration where it was disproportionately reliance on excess government spending that drove us deeper and deeper into this massive debt hole. So there's, there's that huge takeaway. Also the fact that we are seeing inflation not go up, but go down. Another great, great sign. That's not to say price increases have stopped entirely, but the rate of increase has slowed pretty dramatically. And then finally, just that really, really good headline number. We already have a three handle 3.0% phenomenal news. The economy is not, is not losing steam, it is gaining steam. Really great news to see that we're already having an acceleration of growth and that's before you get an investment surge from the big beautiful bill. So we can anticipate even better economic growth, I think, in the months and years ahead.

[Steve Bannon]

This is when, remember I kept talking about 3.4% from 19. This is a couple of quarters ahead of where I thought we'd be. So it's a great inflection point. Adp, you normally come on here and talk about the, the first cut at the labor numbers. What was in the ADP report that that excited you and what concerns you?

[E.J. Antoni]

Well, in terms of that ADP report not only seeing growth in the month of July, but also seeing the June having to have a big upward revision. In other words, ADP realizing, oops, we completely botched this one. That was something we actually talked about, I think last time I was on with you, Steve. Thank you for having me then too. And essentially what they're having to do is realize that, oh, I guess all of our predictions are wrong. In other words, we're having to reevaluate how we look at this data to come to our conclusions because again, they're approaching this with terrible biases that are then skewing their results.

[Steve Bannon]

EJ Amazing. And now I'm convinced that we can't let you go into Treasury. You got to be on the outside to be one of the surrogates. So you can do all the shows and get everything done and do all your great work on the outside. Amazing. Another called shot from EJ Antoni. Sir, where do your Twitter is on fire. Where do people go and get it?

[E.J. Antoni]

That's going to be the best place to find me. The handle is at Real EJ Antony.

[Steve Bannon]

Thank you brother. Fantastic.

[E.J. Antoni]

Thank you, Steve.

[Steve Bannon]

Thank you. We're going to go. We got a lot on this Tulsi situation. John Solomon is going to join me later. President United States reposted a big old meme about Obama and treason and it's powerful and now we got to stick the landing. We're going to get to that shortly. I got to ask Dave Walsh. I was going to have Dave on today, but I asked him move up his hit because I want him here on the economy part. Dave, full spectrum energy dominance. Maybe, maybe we will make a caveat for wind. I think President Trump has officially gone to war with wind. But talk to me about these numbers in light of it's only started to kick in the return to President Trump's full spectrum energy dominance. Sir.

[E.J. Antoni]

Well, we have a new, I mean the new emerging threat to electrification for our ratepayers out there, average citizens, is AI in data centers. We just saw in the last day here a revised forecast through the economist of 2 1/2% growth per year in power generation needed just for AI and data centers. Before McKinsey, Booz Allen BCG had been projecting about 0.9% per year power growth for data centers and AI. This will take that forecast up by a factor of almost three times to 2.5% a year. On top of consumer demand for power itself, ratepayers growing 1.6% a year would mean a 4.1% every year growth in necessary power generation. That compares to the whole period since the 2008 collapse of only 0.5% per year. Electrification growth was was necessary eight times more now in the next four years which says we'd have up to a 500,000 megawatt shortage of electric power in the country by 2030 because of data centers and AI. Now if you will, hogging up to two thirds of new capacity demand. So you've got these asset plays going on such as I sent to Denver a picture of the Google acquisition of existing hydro capacity in Pennsylvania on the Susquehanna last week announced at about 650 megawatts. Google broadcast like it's some new capacity. They've acquired $3 billion. This is like 50 year old capacity that has supported rate payers in BJM forever with pretty much baseload power except July and August when the water's low, rest of the year full full time. Buying that away from ratepayers. And now take hoarding it by Google for data center and service center need, for example.

[Steve Bannon]

Hang on for a second, hang on a second. Full stop. I want to make sure for the viewers, because we just had these GDP numbers and we had this and we do have this, I don't want to call it a specter, but there's something and I want to make sure we converge it. Given the GDP numbers that we just saw, given the fact that the foundational element, as we've talked about over and over and over again with Trump, it's not tax cuts, tariffs is a big part, but the fundamental part of Trump's economic growth plan has always been full spectrum energy dominance and the cheapest forms of energy and plentiful energy. So access, availability and cheap. Right. I mean, that's when you talk about Trump's economics and anytime you're in a room with him, this is what he talks about. We have a hole. We have to dig ourselves out of the right from the Biden years. What EJ just said back there, please take your number two personal and write this down. This is private sector growth, not put. When Biden, these guys went on MSNBCNC and they're talking about, oh, we got growth, we got growth. It always came for more government spending. It all came from. It was a Keynesian stimulus over and over again, as we told you, this is what was going to drive inflation. President Trump's theory of the case is totally different. And this is why, by the way, we're going to have Wade Miller on tonight. Wade Miller is going to come on from Sierra to talk about the rescissions. Where's the pocket rescissions, where are the rescission packages? You know, where is all that, you know, where's all these cuts but private sector growth, finally we're starting to turn this ship around. Now, a big part of that is you're seeing the beginning of all the executive orders and everything President Trump has done at the beginning on energy because once again, energy with tariffs in a closed border. Right? So you have in EJ's great term, the re Americanization of the labor force. It's all coming together now. At the same time, there is a underlying tension. This is where Elon and David Sachs, these guys say, hey, I can see it's getting to 4 and 5% because it's going to be driven by technology, is going to be driven by AI. There's a very interesting thing that has to happen there. And can it start to chop block or slow the economy of the rest of the economy. And that is energy and that is these data centers. And this is something want to make sure you fully understand right now, so. Because that's quite important. Dave Walsh. Hang on. We're going to take a short break. Birch Gold. Now more than ever, you got to understand it. Go to endothedollar empire birchgold.com Bannon that would be me. Into the Dollar Empire. Seven free installments. Eighth is coming. Ninth we're working on. Read it. Talk to Philip Patrick and the team. Short break. If you're a homeowner, you need to listen to this. 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Right Now War Room members get a free copy of MoneyGPT when they sign up for Strategic Intelligence. This is Jim's flagship financial newsletter, Strategic Intelligence. I read it. You should read it. Time is running out. Go to Rickards War room dot com. That's all one word. Rickards War Rooms records with an S. Go now and claim your free book. That's Rickards war room.com do it today.

[E.J. Antoni]

Any issues with this White House taking the power of the purse away from Congress? Do you worry that what's happening right now is sort of making Congress a rubber stamp and careful how I say this, but a lesser branch of government. You know, I think for a long time Congress has been abdicating their power of the purse. In fact, what happens almost every year is there are no appropriation bills and there's one big bill. And really most rank and file people have nothing to do with it. Even the appropriation committees have very little.

[Steve Bannon]

To do with it.

[E.J. Antoni]

And one person, the leader of the majority and the leader of the minority, work out the details. And if you're a special interest and you want one specific tax break, you don't bother talking to any rank and file congressman to tell them the pros and cons of this. You go to one person. And that's why the leaders in both parties raise millions and billions of dollars, because both corporate and labor interests only go to the top of the party, only go to the leadership. And the whole, you know, having the power of the person, the adjudication of what we spend doesn't really happen because the process is so broken. We rarely have budgets, we rarely have appropriations bill. It's what I've been telling people since the first big beautiful bill of the summer is that we're going to get another big beautiful omnibus come the end of September. And that's what normally happens, some enormous bill nobody can read put out without a couple hours to look at it. That's what will happen September 30th because the system's so broken, people haven't woken up enough to really change it.

[Steve Bannon]

Ooh, Mr. Bannon, you told us that a couple days ago and now you heard it from Rand Paul. What did EJ And Tony just tell us? That the private sector is growing faster than public sector of the spending. Cut the spending and you're going to get growth. You keep cutting it back, you're going to get turbo growth, turbocharged growth right there. He said the quiet part out loud. I'm telling you, the Senate under John Thune, who are not doing any, they're going to leave here and do almost virtually no getting his people on board, President Trump's people, the confirmation process. He's not going to go into recess. Right there they're telling you they don't trust Trump if they don't go into recess. Formal recess. It shows you it is in the President's face. President finally last night came out. Guess what he was raving rant and raving about blue slips. You heard about blue slips here over the last couple weeks. He's all over Grassley. They're not giving him the people he wants. And right now, Rand Paul just told you so. Don't say you haven't been warned. War room posse. So get ready for it, baby. They're going to come back here after labor day in the third week of September in the run up to the 30th of September, they're going to drop a 9,000 page omnibus for the entire year. Is going to have every evil you want in there and it'll be what chokes down growth. Why? Because all about federal spending. We need rescissions, we need pocket rescissions, we need impoundments. Keep cutting and this thing will get to 3.4%. We'll get over three and a half percent. We'll get to wait for it. Put a four handle on it. Okay. Then the theory, the cases and they all mocked us. You can't grow aware of it. Hey, you got, as I said, you got a shot. This is your last shot. Why not take your last shot? Because if you don't do it now, you're not going to have a shot. And the big beautiful bill had a lot of, you know, there was ugly warts on it. Right. We didn't love it all, but it gave you a shot for a supply side. And right there, Rand Paul told you so you take your number two principle out. You've been warned. I told you this was going to happen. And Rand Paul said, hey, they're working on it right now. When they say bipartisan appropriations, that means Democrats and big government Republicans coming in with massive checks. We're going to go to Scott Bess in a second. I want to go back to, I want to go back to. By the way, take your phone out. Bannon at Text Bannon 989898. Get the ultimate guide from Birch Gold. It's a quick study and it's free to get you up to speed on capital markets, all of it. You need that now more than ever to understand all this is going on, particularly the jargon so Dave Walsh, number one, Scott Besant. Okay, hanger for one second. Let's go live to the Breitbart event with the great Matt Bowles. Scott Bessant. We're going to listen in. See we got going. Okay. Dave Walsh on the other side. Thank you very much for coming.

[E.J. Antoni]

The chairman of the national bank of Kirst. We I'd also like to thank Ballard Partners and the Financial Services Forum. I'm glad you could be with us today. Let's get things started with Breitbart News.

[Steve Bannon]

Editor, Washington Bureau Chief Matt Boyle and.

[E.J. Antoni]

Treasury Secretary Scott Bess.

[D]

All right, Mr. Secretary, first off, really want to thank you for taking the time to do this. We get to start with the big breaking news. GDP, 3% for the second quarter this year. Numbers out this morning blew away expectations. The Trump boom is real. How did this happen?

[Scott Bessant]

Well, as I was trying to explain to people who panicked on April 2, we're doing peace deals, trade deals, tax deals, and they're all coming together. And a lot of it is just confidence and momentum coming back that, you know, I was never concerned about what was going to happen, that there was a lot of disinformation, a lot of what about ism? What, what if we have this inflation? What if tariffs do this? What if, what if that? And I just think the underlying fundamentals and the policies that President Trump's putting in place are incredible. When you think about the one big beautiful bill, the permanence of that is the confidence that that's going to build. I think it was Al Jolson after he saw the first talking movie said, you ain't seen nothing yet. Like, I think we're just going to accelerate third, fourth quarter. And I think we can go back to the 90s where we had this very strong non inflationary growth for a decade. Because right now we're also seeing about 1% of GDP in AI spending by the hyperscaler. So all in, they're roughly spending $300 billion a year. And in a perfect world, and world's never perfect, but my dream world, they would keep spending and then the AI productivity boom would kick in first, second quarter next year and we could have something that looks like the 90s that hopefully ends in a better way.

[D]

So people are excited about this. So the other thing, the other big numbers that came out this morning, ADP jobs numbers also Better than expected, 104,000 private sector job growth, you've called the broader picture of the American economy that's been coming together the Trump economic miracle. Talk to us about the ADP jobs numbers, private sector job growth, and the broader Trump economic miracle.

[Scott Bessant]

Well, I think one thing that's important here is there's the job numbers. But then we look at the number of jobs for American citizens and that's really taken off. And somehow in the academic literature, in the mainstream media for years, the one area where supply and demand didn't matter was low end labor. We can let hundreds of thousands, and it turned into millions, and then maybe tens of millions of people cross the border and it wouldn't suppress wages. And now I think that we've had this horrible, horrible despair, especially among young men age 16 to 35. We're seeing a real problem there. But I think now that we're seeing real wage growth, that good high paying jobs are coming back, that I think this is just going to build on itself because a lot of these commitments for the trade deals are for substantial investments in the U.S.

[D]

One of the things you mentioned, you mentioned wages. We're seeing wages outpace inflation this year. This is a big deal. I don't think this happened during Biden's presidency. I think it's, this is a unique thing to President Trump's economy. Can you talk to us a little bit about that?

[Scott Bessant]

I think other than, I'm sure the President would agree with me on both, other than the fact he's the most transformative political figure of this century. The other reason he won is because the bottom 50% of working Americans got crushed. That the, if you go by the standard inflation numbers, PCE CPI during the Biden years, it was about 18 or 21%. The wages, reported wages for working Americans were about 3% below those numbers. But that isn't the real story because working class Americans have a different basket of goods and services than everyone in this room. They're dependent on used cars, insurance, rent, they don't have assets. So they probably experienced inflation between 32, 35% with wage growth at 16. So they had a gigantic, gigantic loss of purchasing power. And so with this administration, we're committed to doing two things. Everyone says, how are you going to fix the affordability crisis? And the first way to do it was to bring down inflation, to make sure inflation doesn't get worse. So in May, we had the best inflation number. Four years, they're down, inflation's down. But as you said, we're going to get real wage growth up, which is what happened in President Trump's first term. President Trump's first term, hourly workers did better than supervisory workers. The bottom 50% of household net worth went up more than the top 10%, which might not suit anybody in this room, but it was great for working Americans.

[Steve Bannon]

Right.

[D]

So now, Mr. Secretary, you just got back from Stockholm, Sweden. You were there meeting with the Chinese delegation about trade talks. This is your third such talk meeting, I believe, with them.

[Scott Bessant]

Yes.

[D]

Can you talk to us a little bit about what happened there, and then we'll get into kind of some of the specifics about where things go from here.

[Scott Bessant]

Well, what I can tell you is I don't think it's overstating it to say that they were a little on their heels, because the week before, we had just done the Japanese trade deal. Then the day before we began our talks, I know you were in Scotland with the president. Ursula van der Luyden, president of the European Commission, came and did, you know, what's the deal of the century with the eu? So Japan, eu, we are, I believe, meeting with the Koreans this afternoon. So, you know, our largest trading partners, we have trade deals with, with. So the Chinese, who like to project strength. And under this monolithic view, they were on their heels because, listen, guys, this is the way it is, and you've got a pretty good deal going, but the rest of the world is now with us, and you're not going to get a special deal. You're not going to get this. The EU is a bigger trading partner and the more excess manufacturer. I keep telling them that they have to. The Chinese have to rebalance their economy. They have the most unbalanced, imbalanced economy in the history of the modern world. They're 30% of manufacturing. They have a current account surplus that's equivalent to 2% of global GDP. We haven't seen that since the 1870s and 1880s when there was the British Empire. And, you know, I just said that the world's with us now because for a while it looked in April, May, like the US Was alone against the world. Now that we've done deals with our top trading partners, that we have a lot more leverage. And as you know, nobody generates leverage like the president.

[D]

That's exactly right. So one of the things he told me that President Trump told me when I interviewed him in Scotland about China, because I asked him about your meetings, which were ongoing at the time when we did the interview a couple days ago, by the way, Turnberry, fantastic property guys, right? If you ever get a chance, go, please, like, it's beautiful there right there on the coast. But one of the things he said about China in particular is the goal is to get China to open up. Did you get the sense that they're, they're open to opening up their economy to American goods?

[Scott Bessant]

They, they will move at a very deliberate pace. I was in the macroeconomic investment business for 35 years, and I think probably the most overused saying recently is the Ernest Hemingway saying, how did you go bankrupt slowly than quickly. I think that with a lot of these big economies that it's a slow process and it'll happen quickly. You know, I remember that the Japanese had the bubble burst. They didn't want to do much about it. Then Abe came, President Trump's great friend, Prime Minister Abe came into office in 2010, 12, and boom, the Japanese hit the accelerator and never look back. So my sense is that it's not going to be a straight line that they are doing. They have five year planning sessions. They are meeting for the planning sessions. It's called the five year plan. They are doing their five year plan in September or October. October. They'll announce the results of that in February. So I encourage them that if they are going to rebalance to more of a consumer economy to make that known. So we'll see.

[D]

So you mentioned the other deals, the EU deal, and that happened while we were there with the President. We saw the Japan deal. We've seen deals with the Philippines, with Indonesia, with Vietnam, obviously the United Kingdom Kingdom previously, that was the first big one. And the Prime Minister of the UK came right after our interview with the President. Literally, the staff were yelling out, the Prime Minister's going to be here in four minutes. You got to wrap it up. So the. But, Mr. Secretary, one of the things the President told me was that when in the previous administration last year, the world leaders are telling him this, that our country was dead. Like we were done, like we were finished. We were on the decline. And now they're telling him we're the hottest place in the world. I think you were asked about, you know, as a macro investor last night when you were in Stockholm, where would you invest right now? You said, the United States of America. Your thoughts on that? Like, is this the hottest place in the world right now?

[Scott Bessant]

I think not only is the hottest place in the world, that we've set the conditions to really accelerate that. So I had a very nice life. The private sector. Nice, nice office in my hometown in Charleston, South Carolina. Reason I came out from behind my desk was for two reasons. I was alarmed by the debt levels that we were seeing. The Biden administration, we inherited a mess. 6.7% deficit to GDP, the highest we'd ever seen when we were at peacetime or not at war, not in a recession. And then the other thing that I was very worried about was this regulatory state and the amount of regulation that was just being put in the Federal Register. And I think that this deregulation is both a huge amount of economic friction, but it's also a big tax. And I think now as we're bringing down these barriers that, you know, with, with the tax bill, 100% depreciation permanent for equipment for the next five years, you build your factory in the U.S. you can write that off. 100%. We are pushing for energy dominance. So we're going to have abundant energy and cheap energy. We've addressed. Imagine this like there's an azar. When you see the interview with Marc Andreessen and Ben Hurwitz and why they migrated over to President Trump, they couldn't get the white two of the greatest venture capitalists of the generation. They couldn't get the White House, the Biden White House to call them back on AI. And now we have an AI czar that we are having a digital asset event. So I think we are setting the stage for great policies, but also focusing on the jobs of the future. So I'm super bullish on that. And then when you deal with, what's fascinating for me now is my job for 35 years as a macro investor was when policymakers met to kind of have my ear up against the door, try to figure out what was going on in the room, what they were saying, what they could do, what they would do, what they should do and how the market would react. Now I'm in the room and I'm thinking, okay, what can we do? What should we do? What's possible? How will the market react? How will the economy react? And I tell you that the more I deal with the Europeans that they've just given up. It is a regulatory morass. Mario Draghi, you don't have to read his I think it's 300 page report. The FT, about 2 1/2 months ago did a summary of the report and he came out and said that the EU internally taxes themselves 100% on services and 50% on goods. The EU was supposed to create economic get rid of economic friction, whether it's in finance, whether it's in technology, whether it's in energy. All the EU wants to to do is over regulate it is a bunch of supernatural national bureaucrats with no industry experience sitting in Brussels and they've just given up. And I think now with America, there's just nothing like the US with the innovation that we are blessed with these natural resources. I think, I think we're going to be unstoppable. I think the Chinese model, their economic model is starting to implode, that somehow they believe that gravity doesn't apply to them in real estate. They're in the middle of a real estate crisis. And I think that the rest of the world will have had it with just the Chinese pushing out these cheap goods.

[D]

Okay, so last thing on trade is that one of the things. So we had our John Carney, our economics editor who introduced us here, ran the numbers. Apparently the deals that you guys have already made are close to 60% of world GDP. Obviously, we have an August 1 deadline coming up that the President has made clear if the deals are not in place, then the tariffs are going to go into place even more so than do you expect any 11th hour deals. And talk to us about just how consequential this alliance that has basically come together here through these deals that the president's made is for the world economy.

[Scott Bessant]

Yeah. So we have 18 important trading partners, 60% of GDP and then, excuse me, a lot of the GDP we may not trade with. So if I said it in Stockholm yesterday evening that if the, if there's not a deal by August 1, I would encourage market participants, corporate America, even the countries not to panic because you can still do a deal. You're just going to go back to your April 2nd reciprocal tariff level and it may be on for three days, it may be on for three weeks, it may be on for three months, you can continue negotiating. But back to the president creating leverage that when you, the whole world's been at 10%, if you have not come with a good deal, if you have not moved quickly, I can tell you jumping from 10% back to, you know, I'll pick a number, back to 34% is going to get a lot of attention.

[Steve Bannon]

Okay, that's Secretary of Treasury Scott Besant reinforcing a lot of what we said in the first half hour. Very, very powerful. Matt Bull doing a great job coming off that really amazing interview with the president over at Turnberry. President Trump's course in Scotland. Dave Walsh is going to stick around with me at the top of the hour. We've got to join is going to come in. John Solomon, a lot to report on this, trying to stick the landing on and President Trump. I'll show you this meme really big time. Also on the blue slips President Trump, I don't know, kind of went off on Grassley last night. Got to go pretty far in the woods to hit his tripwire. I think we hit it because he just blew back on the president about the blue slips. The blue slips are one of these structural, you know, customs and traditions of the United States Senate. I don't think it's changing anytime soon. And it does protect you when you're in the minority. But the Democrats use it far too much. This reason have Haba now as another interim for 120 days. Okay, short commercial break on a 3% Wednesday. Scott just sat there. Scott Besson told you. Was it peace deals, trade deals, tax deals? How about that? Bingo, bango, bungo. That's a get to a 3. Handling the economy, the re Americanization of the workforce. He hit the most important number in the ADP report. American citizens are getting jobs. American citizens and the private sector growing faster than the public sector. I think there's some lessons here, so some pattern recognition. What a morning to take us out with the right stuff and tee us up for the second hour of the war room. Stick around. You missed the IRS tax deadline. You think it's just going to go away? Well, think again. The IRS doesn't mess around and they're applying pressure like we haven't seen in years. So if you haven't filed in a while, even if you can't pay, don't wait and don't face the IRS alone. You need the trusted experts by your side. Tax Network usa. Tax Network USA isn't like other tax relief companies. They have an edge, a preferred direct line to the irs. They know which agents to talk to and which ones to avoid. They use smart, aggressive strategies to settle your tax problems quickly and in your favor. Whether you owe $10,000 or $10 million, Tax Network USA has helped resolve over $1 billion in tax debt. And they can help you, too. Don't wait on this. It's only going to get worse. Call Text Network USA right now. It's free. Talk with one of their strategists and put your IRS troubles behind you. Put it behind you today. Call Tax Network USA at 1-800-958-1000, that's 800-958-1000 or visit Tax Network USA tnusa.com bannon. Do it today. Do not let this thing get ahead of you. Do it today.