Transcript
Steve Bannon (0:00)
We are looking right now at the GDP number at 4.3% is the actual number versus an estimate of 3.3%. Mark Tepper, your reaction.
Mark Tepper (0:08)
So, last week we talked about inflation coming in lower than expected. Now economic growth is one full percentage point faster than expected. It was supposed to come in at 3.3, came in at 4.3. This is a direct result of everything President Trump has put in place. Net exports are on the rise because of Trump's tariff policy, which is leveling the trade playing field. Air is increasing productivity, businesses are investing in spending, and the consumer remains strong. And just think next, I think, well, next quarter they'll end up getting an extra $150 billion in refund checks that they can then deploy and spend as well.
Steve Bannon (0:47)
So, great number, great number, 4.3%.
Neil McCabe (0:51)
And I've got to say, when I.
Steve Bannon (0:52)
See a GDP of 4.3%, I have to believe 5% is not far away. And that, of course, is what Louis Navalier told us last week, Mark, that we're going to see a 5% GDP handle in the first half of the year.
Mark Tepper (1:06)
He looks like Nostradamus right now. I mean, he almost predicted that on the head. Obviously, 5% is well within our reach, especially given the consumer tailwinds I just mentioned.
Neil McCabe (1:17)
Right.
Mark Tepper (1:18)
Well, it's really a fantastic number and it's a great Christmas present for the American people. And, you know, I would say that the headline for me is two things that I think the big macro trends that we're seeing in these numbers are, first of all, the President Trump's trade agenda is working. And so we got about, you know, one and a half percent of the growth on 4.3 because we reduced the trade deficit. And then the other thing that I think, which is a big macro thing that we're seeing, is that the artificial intelligence productivity boom is really clearly in the data. And I guess you and I are old enough that we remember back in the 90s when the computer came in, that all of a sudden you had like 4% quarters all the time, one after the other. And it kept surprising people because they thought, oh, you know, computers everywhere, but in the productivity data. But we're seeing it in the data, and we're seeing the same kind of regular surprises for market participants. And so we went back and we looked at every Bloomberg forecast for the main numbers since September and found that on average, we outperformed the forecast 94% of the time. So if 94% of Wall street economists are getting the macro trends wrong, they need to start to think about, hey, you know, maybe Trump's policies are actually way better than we. And maybe the fake news that says all these terrible things about Trump policies should reconsider and you know, get grab their pencil and redo their economics.
