Episode 5360: The Failure Of Dems Prove No Plan B; Deal Or No Deal In Iran

Summary

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Podcast Summary: Bannon's War Room

Episode 5360: The Failure Of Dems Prove No Plan B; Deal Or No Deal In Iran
Date: May 9, 2026
Host: Stephen K. Bannon (WarRoom.org)
Key Guests: Eric Bolling, E.J. Antoni, Scott Hamilton, Rick Santelli, others

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Overview

This episode focuses on two major themes:

1. The political fallout from recent redistricting court rulings, particularly in Virginia and the impact on Democrats’ prospects in the midterms.
2. The ongoing Iran-US conflict, stalled peace negotiations, and global consequences—particularly on energy markets and the economy.

Bannon and guests provide analysis, insider perspectives, and forthright commentary on the structural changes roiling American politics, the grassroots conservative response, and the direct linkage between international crises and domestic economic concerns.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Redistricting Fights and Democratic “No Plan B” (00:00–14:51, 36:40–43:45)

Virginia and National Redistricting Drama

• Virginia AG Moves to Supreme Court: Immediate reaction to the state court's invalidation of a Democratic-drawn map; Republicans poised for advantage ahead of the midterms.
• Other States in Play: Similar turmoil in Alabama, Tennessee, Louisiana, and South Carolina; lawsuits and Supreme Court involvement.
• Undoing of the Voting Rights Act: Discussion on long-term implications and reversal of districting gains for minority communities.
  • Political Commentator (00:53):

    “White folks going to find themselves complaining about how they’re being redrawn into these minority districts that they now put in place today. And they’re going to be asking for the relief that generations of black folks fought and sought for 60 plus years.”

• Democratic Overconfidence and Lack of Contingency:
  • Eric Bolling (11:00):

    “There is a real feel that … it’s a disaster for the Democrats. Something they didn’t see coming … Virginia, they didn’t see Sanders down here in Florida pushing it forward quickly.”

• Republican Strategy:
  • Bannon likens the grassroots redistricting push to an NFL draft “pregame,” emphasizing structure and process advantages for Republicans.
  • Races coming down to just a handful of seats with enormous spending ($30–50 million per seat).

Grassroots Perspective: Scott Hamilton on Virginia

• Massive Victory for GOP:
  • Supreme Court rules to keep original congressional districts, alleging Democratic “power grab” via unconstitutional processes.
  • Scott Hamilton (37:50):

    “…the Supreme Court of Virginia has handed us a massive victory by keeping the congressional districts in place. And this was a power grab by Abigail Spamberger, Don Scott and the criminal thug Louise Lucas.”

• Local Democratic Leaders Criticized: Louise Lucas accused of “vulgar gangster” behavior, alleged illegal activity (untested marijuana, voting malpractices, Medicaid/Medicare-fraud), and shutting down debate on COVID policies.

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2. Iran–US Conflict: “Deal or No Deal” and Fallout (02:41–05:34, 14:51–26:51, 31:00–35:58)

Peace Proposal Stalled, Military Actions Escalate

• Iran’s Silence: US submitted a detailed peace proposal (30-day end to conflict, sanctions relief, unfreezing of assets, nuclear oversight), but Iran hasn’t responded, instead increasing military confrontations in the Strait of Hormuz.
  • Foreign Affairs Analyst (02:41):

    “We’re now three days, and Iran still hasn’t replied to this U.S. proposal … In fact, due to the fighting that we’ve seen … Washington is ‘vermin-like nocturnal scheming,’ [said] Iran’s Foreign Ministry.”

• Blockade and Oil Market Impact: Attacks on tankers, US blockading shipping lanes, oil and fertilizer supply disruptions threatening global agriculture and food security.

US Domestic Political Calculations

• CIA “Leak” and Deep State Theories:
  • Bolling and Bannon both claim a classified CIA report about Iran’s ability to withstand blockade was intentionally leaked to undermine Trump’s administration—tying international actions directly to midterm election pressures.
    • Eric Bolling (18:31):

      “It feels like it’s all intended to take Trump or MAGA down.”

    • Bannon (18:42):

      “This is a warning shot to Trump. … The only reason they would leak this … is to put more pressure on the administration and make it look like Trump doesn’t know what he’s doing.”

• Strategic Concerns and Beijing Talks:
  • Rising oil prices and blockades primarily impact Asian importers (Japan, South Korea, China, India), less so the US, but still raise global energy and insurance costs.
• Trader’s Perspective:
  • Eric Bolling (21:17):

    “The war premium to transit the Strait of Hormuz has increased … 30 times normal rate … [insurance] up to $15–18 per barrel right now … could be an $80 increase in barrels if it stays.”

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3. Economic Analysis: Unpacking the Jobs Numbers (26:25–36:38)

Mixed Economic Signals

• Jobs Report Headlines vs. Reality:
  • Rick Santelli (24:49):

    “115,000 [jobs added]. … These are good numbers. … Manufacturing payrolls, they’re down 2,000 … month-over-month earnings light … unemployment rate 4.3%.”

  • E.J. Antoni (26:59):

    “Top line number was great … But the problem is after we get past that headline number … the internals of this report are pretty ugly.”

• Part-Time Jobs Rise, Full-Time Falls:
  • More people holding multiple jobs due to rising living costs, oil prices blamed for increased economic pressure.
  • E.J. Antoni (30:58):

    “…people were faced with exploding prices because of the war with Iran … they went out and they got extra jobs.”

• AI-Fueled Capital Investment:
  • Eric Bolling highlights that much of the capex (capital expenditure) driving job growth is concentrated in AI and data center projects, which are now slowing or pausing due to energy costs; a “silver lining” for the technology sector despite nationwide challenges.

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4. International Populist Trends: UK Reform Party & Farage (45:08–53:00)

Reform Party Disrupts UK Politics

• Nigel Farage and Reform Party Surge:
  • Successes in London and Labour heartlands—a “truly historic shift” beyond traditional left-right politics.
  • Reform Party Spokesperson (47:24):

    “What reform are able to do is to win in areas that have always been Conservative. But equally, we’re proving in a big way we can win in areas that Labour have dominated, frankly, since the end of World War I.”

• Electoral System and Tactical Voting:
  • Tension between first-past-the-post voting and rising new party success. Greens and Labour considering alliances to block Reform’s rise.
  • Political Strategist (50:39):

    “If we’re not there, then people are either going to simply stay home or vote for Reform in the desperate attempt to get some change.”

• Parallel to US Politics:
  • Bannon repeatedly draws connections between UK’s populist surge and trends in the US, likening Brexit’s impact to Trump’s 2016 win.
    • Bannon (52:48):

      “People are tired of being second class citizens in their own country. That message, loud and clear from England—will it come to the United States?”

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Eric Bolling, on Democratic miscalculation (11:00):

  “They didn’t see, they didn’t see Virginia. … So there is a real feel that … it’s a disaster for the Democrats. Something they didn’t see coming.”

• Stephen K. Bannon, on MAGA grassroots (10:33):

  “…they never thought the Warroom posse and the grassroots and the MAGA movement would say no. We’re going to put our shoulder to the wheel … starting in Texas … and do redistricting.”

• Foreign Affairs Analyst, on Iran negotiations (02:41):

  “…Iran is pretty much staying quiet … due to the fighting that we’ve seen in the Strait of Hormuz. They said that Washington is ‘vermin like nocturnal scheming.’”

• E.J. Antoni, on economic warning signs (30:58):

  “…people went out and they got part time jobs. This is why full time employment went down. But part time employment went up and accounted for all net job growth in April.”

• Reform Party Spokesperson, on UK political shift (47:24):

  “This is a truly historic shift in British politics. … We’ve connected with the decent majority of hardworking, tax paying, law abiding British people who have had enough of being treated like second class citizens in their own country.”

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Key Timestamps

• 00:00–03:00: Breaking news on VA, TN, AL redistricting; Voting Rights Act context
• 05:42–08:00: Bannon/Bolling intro; GOP “controlled opposition” critique
• 11:00–14:51: Deeper analysis: redistricting as “disaster” for Dems; high-stakes electoral math
• 17:26–22:11: Iran conflict; energy impacts, CIA leak theories, US political calculations
• 24:49–26:51: Rick Santelli jobs report breakdown; economic internals scrutinized
• 30:58–33:54: E.J. Antoni unpacks headline jobs vs. underlying weakness; link to oil prices and part-time work
• 37:50–43:45: Scott Hamilton on VA court case, Lucas/Spanberger; grassroots GOP organizing
• 45:08–53:00: UK Reform Party surge, Farage, electoral system implications; Bannon draws US parallels

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Tone and Language

• Direct, combative, and populist: Bannon, Bolling, and guests use forthright, sometimes hyperbolic, language, particularly when describing perceived Democratic failings, the “deep state,” and global elite priorities.
• Insider and grassroots oriented: Emphasizes the need for “the people” to stay vigilant, active, and persistent. References to costs, technical details, and behind-the-scenes developments appeal directly to MAGA and conservative activist listeners.
• Strong contextual linkage: Frequent drawing of parallels between US and UK politics, emphasizing global populist movements.

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Conclusion

Episode 5360 lays bare the high-stakes, zero-sum atmosphere in American politics, especially around redistricting and its structural implications for 2026. The War Room frames the current Iran conflict as a litmus test for both US leadership and global economic resilience, with dire warnings about manipulated narratives and deep state interference. In parallel, attention to international populism (such as Farage’s Reform Party in the UK) serves to bolster the outlook of America’s populist movement. The episode’s blend of breaking news, analysis, and partisan advocacy provides listeners with talking points, strategic insights, and a strong call to action for grassroots engagement as the 2026 midterms approach.

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Transcript

[News Anchor]

Breaking tonight, Virginia's attorney general has asked his state's highest court to pause their order invalidating that new voter approved congressional map as he seeks a review from the United States Supreme Court. The state court ruled earlier the Democrats violated procedural rules to put that map on the ballot. The ruling essentially erases four Democratic leaning congressional districts in the state, likely giving Republicans a partisan advantage coming into the midterms. Meanwhile, Tennessee's new Republican map is already facing two lawsuits. One of those suits brought by the NAACP, argues the state violated its own laws and constitutional limits in its rush to redraw its map.

[E.J. Antonio]

We do have breaking news out of Alabama where officials there filed papers with the US Supreme Court urging it basically to eliminate or to allow it to eliminate a Democratic held congressional district in

[Political Commentator]

the year 24, 2055, 2060, when the country is majority minority, meaning more black and brown people going to be controlling the legislatures and the, you know, tentacles of power. White folks going to find themselves complaining about how they're being redrawn into these minority districts that they now put in place today. And they're going to be asking for the relief that generations of black folks fought and sought for 60 plus years. So here we find ourselves now in the undoing of the Voting Rights Act. Here we find ourselves now creating districts where the legislature says, I'm sorry, if we want this community of African American and Hispanics and others to have representation, to have their voice in the state legislature, that's now racist, that's somehow now just bad public policy.

[Political Analyst]

This is a blow. Obviously a lot of effort went into this campaign to win a vote of the people and it has been set aside. And you know, when you look at the whole board with Florida moving and these other states based on the Supreme Court Voting Rights act decision, you know, Tennessee and Louisiana, now Alabama, maybe South Carolina, you know, the president is in terrible political shape and on the natural Republicans would lose the House. This gives them a little bit of more of a cushion. Probably nine or ten Democrats need to win to take the House other than rather than three. And so this was a bad day for Democrats, no doubt about it.

[Foreign Affairs Analyst]

I think the proof is in the pudding, right? Because why have we not had an Iranian response yet to the US Proposal that was given many days ago? Now we were supposed to hear a response on Thursday. We didn't. We were then pretty confident we'd get a response. Yesterday Marco Rubio said that he was expecting a response from the Iranians yesterday. We didn't get one. And so we're now in Three days, and Iran still hasn't replied to this US Proposal to bring a conclusive ending to this conflict. And I think the fact that we have seen fighting in the Straits of Hormuz, we have seen attacks onto the coastline of Iran over the last couple of days, and we've seen obviously an Iranian retaliation not just to US Warships in the Strait of Hormuz, but to the UAE particularly as well. Then that's why we're not moving forward in this peace proposal, in these negotiations. And remember, this latest proposal that the US has put forward, which essentially suggests that within 30 days we will come to a conclusive ending of this conflict. In it, there is discussions around lifting the blockade gradually of the Strait of Hormuz. There will be discussions around how Iran's sanctions would be released and their assets unfrozen. There's also talk about how Iran would lift their blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and critically as well about their nuclear program and very specific details about their nuclear program, which they'd all get into if the two sides actually get around the table. And that first will only be done if this initial proposal gets agreed. And right now, Iran is pretty much staying quiet, in fact, due to the fighting that we've seen in the Strait of Hormuz. They said that Washington is vermin like nocturnal scheming. That was from Iran's Foreign Ministry, and they warned against adventurism and roguish behavior. This was after a US Jet fired on two oil tankers which were heading towards an Iranian port in the Strait of Hormuz. And those two tankers were disabled as a result as part of the US blockade inside that waterway. So we're in a situation right now where all eyes are on Iran. The ball is seemingly in their courts to come back with a response to this deal. But I think this military action that we've seen extensively over the last few days now just doesn't help us getting to some form of peace proposal. And I just also must mention is that even if they do come back with a response which won't be completely to a GRY apply with what the US has said, this would just be the initial step to then getting to the table, to then having negotiations. Any sort of peace agreement and deal is still very far off.

[Radio Host/Advertiser]

This is the primal scream of a dying regime. Pray for our enemies, because we're going

[Stephen K. Bannon]

medieval on these people.

[Radio Host/Advertiser]

I got a free shot. All these networks lying about the people. The people have had a belly full of it. I know you don't like hearing That I know you try to do everything

[Stephen K. Bannon]

in the world to stop that, but

[Radio Host/Advertiser]

you're not going to stop it. It's going to happen. And where do people like that go

[Eric Bolling]

to share the big lie? MAGA MEDIA I wish in my soul, I wish that any of these people had a conscience.

[Radio Host/Advertiser]

Ask yourself, what is my task and what is my purpose? If that answer is to save my

[Rick Santelli]

country, this country will be saved.

[Eric Bolling]

War ROOM here's your host, Stephen K. Banner.

[Stephen K. Bannon]

Saturday night year of alert 2026. It's Victory Day in Russia. A little subdued today. I think the word about Ukrainian drones and let's give the Ukrainians first of the Ukrainian people are unbelievable. The way they fought the Russians and that's the courage and bravery and valor. Their leadership. Zelensky and the oligarchs are run at some of the worst people on earth. But give the devil its due. They've got the Russians subdued. Kind of a very subdued victory day parade in Moscow which normally has, you know, they bring out the missiles, everything. So we'll talk about that a little bit later. I, I want bowling to start the show because I want to find out. There we are right there. Pretty good. We'll get it back up. Good going, Denver. You're on the trigger today. And I do want to report no one on the Denver staff was that guy on the Runway last night. What is that about a guy on a Runway trying to flag down a jet about to take off? These airports, I'm telling you, dangerous, dangerous, dangerous. Eric Bolling, first off, you used to have years ago, didn't you have MICHAEL Steele? People gotta remember this is how when I say the Republican Party has controlled opposition and it's a new day for the grassroots, please always remember that Michael Steele was the head of the Republican Party. He didn't speak in ghetto like he does now on msnbc. He was head of the Republican Party. And Tim Miller, yes, that would be puka shells or pearl's. Tim Miller, that was his chief spokesman. Tim Miller was the communications director of the Republican National Committee. And, and, and Michael Steele was the chairman. So when I say there was controlled opposition because those guys are left wing Democrats and they show it every day on msnbc. But they didn't really change that. That's what they've always been. They just faked it. And this is what clowns the Republican Party are to kind of put them as the head guys. Did you ever have him on your show back in the old days? ERIC MICHAEL STEELE Tons of times.

[Eric Bolling]

I did a show where we would do a political panel before the five on Fox Digital. Michael Steele was a regular regular Thursday guest. The guy was, you know, as convincing as could be. And I played a sound by I think it was with maybe right before you came on last night on the 4 o' clock show. And he literally had the most African American dialect I've ever, ever hurt. Even worse than when Kamala brings it out or worse when then when Hillary used to bring it out or when Biden says in chain, it was the worst. And it just blows me. Steve, MSNBC is littered with former conservatives. You look at Nicole, one of their highest rated shows, a former Bush press secretary. They like to pick up formers especially.

[Stephen K. Bannon]

No, it's, no, but it makes the point that they were never. It's why the Republican party's controlled opposition. They haven't really changed. They just got a different venue and it can all come out now. I'll tell you what, do we have the, can we have the Michael Steele thing before we talk about the markets? And I got the MSNBC guy there. Nailed it. Hey, it's three days. We got no. 1 pager, as kind of predicted here.

[Political Analyst]

No war room.

[Stephen K. Bannon]

But let me play. I gotta play Michael Steele again. Here's why so many members of the engine room heads blown up about Michael Steele. So let's play it in the year

[Political Commentator]

2052, 2055, 2060, when the country is majority minority, meaning more black and brown people going to be controlling the legislatures and the, you know, tentacles of power. White folks going to find themselves complaining about how they're being redrawn into these minority districts that they now put in place today. And they're going to be asking for the relief that generations of black folks fought and sought for for 60 plus years. So here we find ourselves.

[Stephen K. Bannon]

It's pretty obvious they had no plan B. They never thought, they never thought the Warren posse and the grassroots and the MAGA movement would say no. We're going to put our shoulder to the wheel starting in Texas and we're going to do the pregame. The pregame is like the April draft for the NFL. We're going to do the pregame and, and do redistricting. And so I say structural structure, content process. On the structure side, we're hammering them. Your thoughts about that, Eric?

[Eric Bolling]

Yeah, first of all, Michael Steele was, I mean, I think it was Georgetown or Harvard, one of the, one of the major universities. He was for 10 years, 15 years on TV. He never had this controlling without the G and white folk gonna really come on. Michael what is this as far as redistricting? You know, political. Had to come clean. And I think the headline, I'm pretty sure it's Political Axios come clean and say it's a disaster for the Democrats. Something they didn't see coming. They didn't see, they didn't see Virginia. They didn't see Sanders down here in Florida pushing it forward quickly. And so there is a real feel that, you know, we, Caroline ran on your show yesterday talking how we can get the 216. You know, you just got to spend a lot of money. And as she pointed out, I hit her on also with your, with your blessing, of course. She pointed out and answer, how much is for, for one seat? I mean, I know every state is different. Everyone has different numbers, but when we came to a number, she said, could be upwards of, you know, 30, $35 million for a seat. And she said, just think about that, though. One seat could make the difference between Hakeem Jeffries or whoever may be the speaker of the House if we retain. Because I'm not sure, I'm not sure Speaker Johnson or Thune should even be around after, after midterms. But whatever. That's, that's my opinion. So these, the redistrict, redistricting thing that the Democrats thought they were so proud of with Hopkin Jeffries, you know, saying that the Republicans screwed up. I think they, they were a little, what is it? When was George Bush say mission accomplished? A little. Just, just a smidge too early.

[Stephen K. Bannon]

No, Politico had the story. I went back to my notes and they had a story. There's a 27th or 28 Democrats had turned the tables and now they were ascended in this reducing thing. They were going to win. And lo and behold, you know, reality hit. What shocks me is they don't have a plan B. I think it's going to be more than 30 or 35 million. This is going to come down to a handful of seats. Like, for instance, in Virginia, we're going to have a young man who's running for the state Senate the year after. But they're getting ready for the ground game. Now. You have to hold those four seats. Two of those seats are going to be tough. Right? Two of those seats are going to be tough in Virginia. But we got to hold them. Now that we got the structural part behind us, you've got to actually hold them. So it's going to be intense. It will come down to seven or eight seats, I think. And I think that you're going to see $50 million because think about it, the entire House of Representatives, which obviously has immense power, particularly in this regard, because they're coming for Trump, if they just take it by one seat, they don't care. The Democrats play smash mouth. They're not, you know, if they take it by one seat, they're going to roll hard, Eric. And so this is going to be quite intense. But, and we still got a lot to go. Louisiana, we still got one more to pick up. Alabama, still one more to pick up. South Carolina. So there's still seats in play, like you said, could get us to 2:16.

[Eric Bolling]

South Carolina scares me because I, I lived there for three years, very, very red state. And, and with the chat with Caroline yesterday, she said there's, there's a lot of, you know, folks who call themselves conservatives who may not be and that, that I think is, is fairly common, especially, you know, state houses at least, and possibly US Representatives as well, you know, just to get, get elected. So South Carolina, if you run as a D, you're likely not going to get elected. So you run as an art, but you're really a D. And that scares me. You know, Indiana, Mike Pence had a lot of control over Indiana and got those folks to push back. But she did say, well, there's going to be another fight for Indiana, but it's going to happen after the midterms.

[Stephen K. Bannon]

Yeah, no, the South Carolina, Georgia, the establishment of those Republican parties, the grassroots will tell you this, are infected with Bushism. The Bushes, the Bush apparatus, the Karl Rove Bush apparatus has a lot of say so in the establishments of both South Carolina and Georgia. That's why Kemp is, Kemp is kind of a Bush clone. Anyway.

[Radio Host/Advertiser]

Short break.

[Stephen K. Bannon]

Eric Bolling, we're talking about. Do we have a deal? Deal or no deal? Next in the war room,

[Radio Host/Advertiser]

everyone's focus on how the conflict in the Middle east is raising oil prices. But there's another grim reality to this contention. Oil isn't the only resource being constrained. About one third of global fertilizer trade happens through this region. And with spring planting season on top of us, American farmers are sounding the alarm with some saying they can't afford to plant their fields. When one piece of the supply chain gets hit this hard, you know what comes next? Higher fruit prices, reduced availability, maybe even panic buying. That's why having an emergency food supply at home makes so much sense. And that's where our friends at My Patriot Supply come in right [e-mail] that is preparewithbannon.com. we've set up an entire just site for the war room posse. You go to preparewith Bannon.com that's all one word. Preparewith Bannon.com you get a three month emergency food supply. Don't include a free mega protein Upgrade. An incredible $200 bonus you don't want to miss. It's a simple way to protect your family from whatever comes next. Go to preparewithbannon.com that is preparewithband.com to get your emergency food supply today. That's preparewithbannon.com do it today. Go check it out.

[Rick Santelli]

War room. Here's your host, Stephen K. Band.

[Stephen K. Bannon]

We had. Let me cut that up here. Play that again on Monday. We had Philip Patrick last night talking about the structural changes he thinks and the Birch gold guys think are coming to the gold market. The still massive purchase of gold by central banks. And he says they ain't buying it for yield. They're buying it just to hold even at the prices, you know the prices all near an all time high. He said that is a big deal and he does not think that will stop anytime soon. Birchgold.com promo code ban and end of the dollar empire. Most important get to Philip Patrick in the team. All the information we have up at Birchgold is obviously free. No obligation. We're there with the Birchcold guys to teach you pattern recognition is not the price of gold. It's the process of draws the value. Learn that today with the folks at Birchgold. Go talk to Philip Patrick and the team particularly about these central banks buying gold at all time rates.

[Radio Host/Advertiser]

Okay.

[Stephen K. Bannon]

The economic numbers came out yesterday. Unemployment and others. EJ and Tony's going to join me momentarily. I'll get to bowling. Also this on his thoughts as a trader. But first off Eric, I think it's 72 hours. We don't have a one pager. I think we were lighting up some guys last night. We hit a tanker I think we boarded. But a ceasefire is not over. The are the Iranians now playing with the United States? Are they playing games?

[Eric Bolling]

Sir, I think as we been talking all along Steve, I think the Iranians are are in it for the long haul. They're they wanted martyrdom is their. Their greatest sacrifice in the Life 72 versions as they died you know for the cause so to speak taking down the evil giant America and the mini giant Israel. So I, I believe they're going to continue this and especially I don't know where this came from. Steve, yesterday the CIA, our CIA put out a report why the hell would they do this? Now that the deep state.

[Stephen K. Bannon]

It's the, it's the deep. It's the deep state leak. The deep state leaking on Trump.

[Eric Bolling]

It's amazing, isn't that their Cape Iranians will be capable to hold off the blockade for several months, whereas with several months, put you the midterm elections. It's insane that the CIA would be, would be that ridiculous. Put this out you got there.

[Stephen K. Bannon]

Hang on, hang on, hang on, hang on. Connect Datso. This is, this is a warning shot to Trump. This is a love tap. President Trump said we gave the Iranians a love tap. This is a love tap to President Trump about the Brennan prosecution in South Florida. The deep state is they're Brennan's guys. That's what. The only reason they would leak this, right, Is to put more pressure on the administration and make it look like Trump doesn't know what he's doing. Right. And actually say, hey, this is going to last all the way to the midterms. You agree with that?

[Eric Bolling]

Yes, yes, yes. And by the way, you mentioned leaks. I've looked. This shot looks like a Stephen K. Bannon, White House senior or someone's leaking. Bannon calls him into his office and turns the lights up, put a light down his face and said, what the hell did you leak for? Look, not only do we believe it, I think there's a concerted effort to undermine Trump and as you point out, deep state Faddis would know best about that. Being a former CIA operative. He knows what and I think he would agree that that was intentionally placed right now to give the Iranians some sort of wind in their sails, so to speak, so that they do last. Because the longer it lasts, the higher oil stays, higher oil stays, the higher gasoline stays, the closer you get to midterm elections is a definite drag on certainly independent voters, if not some weak, feckless Republican voters. So, yeah, it feels like it's all intended to take Trump or MAGA down.

[Stephen K. Bannon]

What about your thoughts now? They're going through all kind of perturbation, a bunch of stories coming out. They leave in a couple of days for Beijing. Your thoughts? How's it the Iranian situation in your mind going to play into these talks in Beijing?

[Eric Bolling]

Well, so this is huge. I'll take you through the numbers. I call the guys, my trading guys, and here are the latest. Three, three vessels in the last 24 hours. If you take the last few days. Few days ago, Steve, we talked. It was four vessels, then it jumped to 11. The very next day was 0. 2 yesterday and 3 today. So the traffic is 95% below what it should be. Japan and South Korea remain the most critical countries with this oil really shortage on that part of the globe. China and India are high. Their heat map is at high. Believe it or not, the United States heat map because of the oil blockade is low, low risk. So that's good news. The war premium to transit the Strait of Hormuz has increased the insurance and whatnot, 30 times normal rate. So before the conflict, the war premium, small amount to transit, it was in the 50 to 60 cents per barrel.

[Stephen K. Bannon]

Right.

[Eric Bolling]

It's up to 15 to 18 dollars per barrel right now. If you can get it through, that's what the insurance companies are going to charge the transporters. If we were to stay fully disrupted for an extended period of time, that could be an $80 increase in barrels. So you're talking 150, 160 if it stayed. I don't think it's going to stay. Something very important with the Russia ceasefire or whatever this is peace talk, whatever this is going to be. Russia produces 9 million barrels of oil per day. They use roughly half of it, but they export half of that as well. Right now we're embargoing Russian oil in the world market the way we are with Iran. So you bring those barrels on. Those would be very, very welcome relief to the general oil market. Again, Steve, we're not susceptible to the Strait, but we're susceptible to the rising tide lifting all oil crude oil barrel boats.

[Stephen K. Bannon]

Give me your thoughts on the numbers. You heard the employment number yesterday, the top line number. EJ's got some analysis about the internals down the food chain a little bit. What are your thoughts?

[Eric Bolling]

Yeah, so the headline number, the estimates, the economist estimates were 60,000 increase. We had 130 or 40,000 increase. Which tells you it sounds really good. But as you go into what they're called internals, where you look at where the increase in hiring happened and some people didn't like it, I'll be honest with you, it was pretty limited in the limit, but. But where the limit was for me was a very positive sign. Almost all the increase happened in the air. Cap spending, cap capital spending on AI, which in a time where high energy prices are really strangling the AI development people are making decisions whether to go forward with data centers and such because of the high energy costs, rising energy costs, you know, the AI is draining energy resources. So even so, in the last month we were fully in this war. In the last month, capex spending on AI projects was most of the driver of the economic numbers. So yeah, you can say the headline was great. Internals weren't great. But for me the literally the silver lining in this is the fact that because it was capex in AI, I'm very, very means our economy is resilient. Steve, don't forget we had a 2% GDP in the middle of this too. So things don't look as bad.

[Stephen K. Bannon]

You see the reason I love bowling, you're getting the pure trader mentality. That's the trader mentality. Of course here in the war room we hate data centers and want a moratorium. But you're right, the scary thing was the capex number was massive. Eric, where do people get you on social media and your new show? We'll see you back here on Monday. To make us smart about what happened over the weekend. Hopefully, hopefully we get the one pager with the 21 points.

[Eric Bolling]

Two things you've been saying, we don't have any allies in the Middle east and we're not getting the one pager. I, I'm going to Stephen K. Ban's analysis. Ain't gonna happen. But find me at Eric Bowling anywhere on social media. Four and a half million people love to see you. Love to get your thoughts on what we're doing right here. Steve, have a great weekend.

[Stephen K. Bannon]

Thank you.

[Eric Bolling]

I'll be texting you if anything happens.

[Stephen K. Bannon]

Good, thank you. Keep me up to date. Eric Bowling, massive social media. His new show's fantastic. Follow bowling. Yeah, the capex number is not good. Although they are reporting that behind the scenes, behind the scenes it's, it's very powerful. Let's go ahead and play. I'm gonna play the cold open and then after the break I'll bring in EJ. Let's go to EJ's cold open squawk box.

[Rick Santelli]

Rick Santelli here live at CME HQ with the big job jobs report for April. 65,000 expected. Nay, nay, nay. We are much stronger. 115,000 thousand. 115. And last month upward revision from 178 to 185. These are good numbers. Now if you take the two month average, we did lose 16,000. So you know it's the month before the last month and if we look at manufacturing payrolls, they're down 2,000. The reason I'm looking at them because last month's -15,000 positive 15,000 was, was the best going all the way back to 11 of 23, November 23. But we are giving a little bit back all Right, let's get involved in the earnings month over month earnings light 2/10 we're expecting 3 10. 210 actually is now a back to back number. 2/10 back to back the compa B 0.11 10 the end of last year. If we look at a year over year perspective, also also a miss 3.6 versus 3.8. 3.6 of course actually is better than our last look which is 3.5. That was the lightest since May of 21. So 3.6 comps back up to the 3.8 level in February. Hours worked. This is important. One would think that AI is going to make a difference. Here it is moving up 34.3. 34.2 again expect the 34.2 has been a big common number for most of 25. 34.3 was February, January of this year. To find a higher number you're going all the way back to March of 24. Now let's look at what I call you 3 the unemployment rate. 4.3 last month, 4.3 now 4.3 expected, no change. 4.4 is the high water mark for the year and that was in fact February. To find a lower number, you're back to mid 25 at 4.1.

[Stephen K. Bannon]

EJ we got about a minute before we go to break. I'm gonna hold you your thoughts. Particularly the top line number.

[E.J. Antonio]

Well Steve, top line number was great. All always good to see the jobs jobs added beat expectations. But the problem is after we get past that headline number, as Eric Bolling was saying so articulately, you know, the internals of this report are pretty ugly. For example, if you look at not just the survey of businesses where we get that jobs number from, but you look at the survey of households where you ask folks how many people are actually employed. That number didn't even go up. It actually fell. It fell over 200,000 last month. Now part of how you can have this disconnect has to do with how many, how many jobs are people actually working. In other words, multiple job holders. What we found in the month of April was that you had a big increase in the number of people who had multiple jobs. And sure enough, if we look at the composition of what kinds of jobs were created last month, full time employment actually fell. All of the net job growth that we saw were part time jobs. So here's, here's the story that the data.

[Stephen K. Bannon]

Hang on, hang on one second. I want to hold. I'm going to hold. Go to break. We got right now I want to give you plenty of Runway to walk through. E.J. and Tony, one of the smartest guys around about labor numbers all next in the word.

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[Rick Santelli]

Here's your host, Stephen K. Bannock.

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E.J.

[Stephen K. Bannon]

there a lot of, particularly in the engine room, a lot of talk about E.J. antonio, I think for the first time in four or five years is making an appearance on War Room. He's not in his traditional nice suit, you know, tie squared away. You're in a, you're, you're in a fleece. Is this casual? Saturday is a Saturday morning show. More of a cat, more casual to you.

[E.J. Antonio]

Now this is, this is on the road because I got to go visit Mama Antoni for Mother's Day weekend.

[Stephen K. Bannon]

Okay, great. Fantastic response. Thank you, sir. These numbers talk to me about, because I'm quite concerned. We talk about content. We've got structured content process the content issues we're facing. Besant Navarro, Jameson Greer, the president, everybody's focused on the economy. This is one of the reasons we want to wrap this thing up in the Persian Gulf and get back home. What warning signs do you see? Continue on with your issues about not the headline number but the internals that are right below that.

[E.J. Antonio]

Absolutely. So Steve, what essentially I think this report is telling us because look, you got to go through the data and you got to try to Basically tell a story that fits every single data point, right? And I think what the data is telling us is that last month people were faced with exploding prices because of the war with Iran. There's just no other way to put it. And as a result they went out and they got extra jobs. And look, this is something that we saw that happened under Biden, right, when all of his reckless government policies caused prices to go up. Right now obviously it's that oil has increased and that's what's causing the higher, the higher burdens on folks. So people went out and they got part time jobs. This is why full time employment went down. But part time employment went up and accounted for all net job growth in April. Also with multiple job holders going up again. That's somebody who's already got a full time job going out and getting another job, a part time job to try to supplement their income. If you look at the credit data that we got most recently, it shows the exact same thing. People were able to increase their spending mostly on things like gas and diesel because they exploded how much they were putting on credit cards. So that's what the data is telling us here. So again you get beyond the headline number and you see things are not that great. If you look at though some of the areas that were good, you saw government jobs continuing to go down. So at least all net job growth is in the productive private sector, not the unproductive public sector. Additionally, we're continuing to see the construction boom. The cap spending that is coming in for AI is helping to again fuel that construction industry. You're helping to add blue collar jobs there. So good news, at least on that front. So it's not all bad. I don't want to make it sound like it's doom and gloom or anything like that, but I do at the same time want to be a realist. I want the war room posse here to be informed. I want them to know what's actually going on and not just get the rosy talking points. I want to actually continue to be a truth teller here. Whether the truth looks good or not.

[Stephen K. Bannon]

The big beautiful bill, particularly the supply side part of this of capital spending to expand plant and factory, the green shoots of that in manufacturing jobs because we were beginning to see some of that before the war. Is that in hibernation now? Is that still rolling along? Because that is quite important. When we talk about content, we talk about, hey you, you structurally got four seats delivered back to you in the Commonwealth of Virginia. Two of the. One of those seats is really in play. Another one's kind of in play. You're going to have to win all four of those to make sure that we retain the House. To do that, we have to have a robust economy. Are you seeing that right now as we sit here in the first week of May?

[E.J. Antonio]

Well, Steve, what I'm basically seeing is that we're just having to revise down a lot of our growth forecasts for the year because of high oil prices. I mean, look, you can debate whether or not the war with Iran was worth it from a geopolitical or geostrategic or a military point of view. Those are not my areas of expertise. I can't really give you. Yeah, I can't comment on that. All I can tell you is from an economic perspective, the war is a massive drag on the economy because one of the cornerstones of the Trump economic boom, both in his first presidency and then also in his second term, is low energy prices. Case in point, Steve, if you look at all of the data center projects that were actually started on January 1st of this year, fast forward to today, half of them have either been paused or canceled. Now, what's really amazing, and this goes back to something that Eric Bolling was saying earlier, is that the incredible amount of spending that we are still seeing despite those high prices, I think is a result of, of the Trump economic boom. It is a result of the supply side effects of the investment credits that you see in things like the big beautiful bill. It's a result of the reductions in regulatory burdens that are also decreasing costs that are allowing for these projects to continue to go forward even in the face of those high energy prices. So again, you are seeing a construction boom which will in the future then lead to a manufacturing boom because you have to actually build the factories first right before, before they can employ people and before they can actually start producing stuff. So you are setting yourself up for good growth in the future. But again, just the reality on the ground, Steve, I got to be a realist here. The reality on the ground is that these high energy prices are a big damper on the economy right now and they are slowing things down. So again, you still do have growth. You are seeing some projects go forward. But we just have to acknowledge the fact that, that you've also seen a lot of projects either paused or canceled because of those high energy prices.

[Stephen K. Bannon]

And that's why the Persians are figuring out, calculating the pain. They're taking, obviously a lot of pain militarily and politically. They've been hammered. What they're going to foist into the Persian people to stick it out with the pain. They're going to try to put on President Trump in the administration. E.J. your analysis is always brilliant. Where do people go, particularly your Twitter feed. You're keeping people up to date. You're kind of the bomber command for the economy. Where do people go to follow you, sir?

[E.J. Antonio]

Best place is going to be on X. And the handle there is Eel EJ Antony.

[Stephen K. Bannon]

And tell Mama Antoni, happy Mother's Day, sir.

[E.J. Antonio]

I certainly will, Steve. Thank you for having me.

[Stephen K. Bannon]

Thank you, brother. The spirit, the esprit de corps now in the grassroots for the victories. And we got a lot of news to report at Texas. Remember, we're heading down to Texas for the early vote and for and for this runoff with Ken Paxton, which is all kind of rumors now President Trump may endorse. Hopefully that doesn't happen. Ken Paxton will win if that doesn't happen, particularly on Cornyn Scott Pressler is going to be here on Monday. Scott has been in both Indiana and the commonwealth, Virginia. He's heading to Texas. He's going to get us totally up to date on everything he's working on and talk about his new book that's coming out, the Persistence. I want to go now that commonwealth, Virginia, Scott Hamilton, Scott's runner for a state Senate seat in the upcoming and really, I guess the next cycle. Scott, tell me what has happened at the grassroots level about this. The decision by the Supreme Court of the Commonwealth yesterday, but also this massive grassroots effort to keep this thing competitive. Are people fired up? Are you going to be able to hold all four of the seats that have basically been put back in play by the comet, by the Supreme Court, sir?

[Scott Hamilton]

Well, God, willingly. Hopefully we can hold the seats because the Supreme Court of Virginia has handed us a massive victory by keeping the congressional districts in place. And this was a power grab by Abigail Spamberger, Don Scott and the criminal thug Louise Lucas. They orchestrated a 10:1 map and they violated the constitutional process not just once, not just twice, but in four separate occasions. But I read the entire opinion and the court was spot on. And the main issue that the Virginia Supreme Court has is that early voting began and there was 1.3 million votes that were cast before the first passage of this constitutional amendment on Halloween of 2025. And there are 15 states that require the passage of an amendment in two separate General assembly sessions. And Virginia, of course, is one of those. And what happened is that you have 1.3 million Virginians who are essentially Disenfranchised. They didn't have a chance to cast a vote whether they support this amendment or not. And, of course, the second passage occurred January of this year, and none of the. Well, there were special elections for certain members of the House, the delegates, and for Senate, particularly for Ghazala Hashmi. You know, we need to find a replacement for her because she left her Senate seat serving as lieutenant governor. And, you know, the court ruled that we can't disenfranchise 1.3 million Virginians that pass a constitutional amendment.

[Stephen K. Bannon]

Talk to me about. We haven't had time to cover Lucas. We've. We've talked about Spanberger, and she's a CIA operative that, you know, governs as an authoritarian thug. Tell me about Lucas for a second. Our audience doesn't know much about her except for the fact the FBI, you know, she's got a big mouth. She's been very aggressive in going after Trump and maga. But the FBI raided, I guess, her house and her business. Who is she and what is she like?

[Scott Hamilton]

Well, I've been bumping heads with Louise Lucas for a while now. There was a Senate hearing, this is back in 2021. So we had former Senator Amanda Chase, who was there, and we had many other folks who were affected by the COVID vaccine and, of course, the COVID illness that was still around at the time. We were pretty much in the height of the pandemic. And what the issue was at the time is that there was a bill that Senator Amanda Chase put forth to make it so that pharmacists could not deny Ivermectin prescriptions to those who, you know, got them from their doctors in the Commonwealth of Virginia. Now, Louise Lucas, instead of hearing those, you know, those individuals who had lost family members due to the COVID who did not have access to Ivermectin, she was not concerned about any of those voices. What she did is that she shut down the hearing and said, well, we're just not going to do this anymore. And Amanda Chase had a press briefing. We have various reporters over there talking about how Louise Lucas was not interested in hearing about alternative ways to combat this COVID pandemic. And that's just one of the many issues where Louise Lucas has been wrong on. And of course, when Governor Youngkin was in office, she said, oh, we're putting this effing bill in the trash. I mean, she's just a vulgar gangster. I mean, this. You see it from her demeanor, the way she speaks and the, you know, she even said it's Abigail Spamberger's inauguration party, 10F&1. 10F&1. She was shouting it several times. And this is kind of woman that she is now. I wasn't surprised that the FBI invaded her her places of business. I mean, there's allegations that she was selling untested marijuana. And of course, you know, since Biden's America, we've had marijuana. It's been laced with marijuana. Marijuana has been laced with fentanyl and it's caused, you know, deaths in America. And to have untested marijuana and you're selling it to people in the Commonwealth of Virginia, I mean that's a serious problem.

[Stephen K. Bannon]

There's other issues. Is it Medicaid and Medicare fraud also? I think potentially.

[Scott Hamilton]

Potentially, yes, yes, because she runs multiple senior homes and that's another issue. And I've also heard too that, that she has had her employees register people with dementia and other severe cognitive disabilities inside of her senior homes. And that's a problem.

[Stephen K. Bannon]

Philip, Philip, we gotta bounce. Where do people go to find out more about your campaign, more about you, more about the grassroots in the Commonwealth

[Scott Hamilton]

of Virginia, they can go to hamilton for vacenate.com you can find me on Facebook @hamilton for Virginia Senate. And you can also go to my X which is Hamilton 4 VA. Thank you and God bless.

[Stephen K. Bannon]

That X account's good if you want to keep up with Louise Lucas. I mean it's really shocking when you go to Phillips and other accounts, Deloitte Stallman, you look at all the grassroots people when they look at these Virginia Democrats. It is a thug party. It's a gangster party. They got chop block. Now it's time for us to perform. We got to hold those four seats in the Commonwealth. Short commercial break Back in the war room on a Saturday. In a moment.

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[Eric Bolling]

War Room.

[Rick Santelli]

Here's your host, Stephen K. Band.

[Stephen K. Bannon]

We had Philip on last night. I'll break that down again on Monday because it was so fascinating. Philip Patrick talking about the central bank still buying gold at virtually record rates for another quarter. We just got the first quarter number and this is now an expansion of central banks. So I think all of you got to be up this feeling. This one of the easy ways to do it. Text Bannon B A N N O N at 989-898. You get a free guide, no obligation for investing in gold and precious metals

[Radio Host/Advertiser]

in the age of Trump.

[Stephen K. Bannon]

And you get access to Philip Pack and team. That is the key thing. It's not the price, it's the process that drives the value. Pattern recognition. Make sure that you, you dive in and start to learn that. Philip Patrick and his team at Birch Gold will be your guides through that. Okay, I've got a long cold open on Nigel Farage. I want to play right now. I got Peter McElveen, Ben Harnwell, probably at the top of the hour. Let's go ahead and play this. I want to get this. Everybody gets up to speed on what's happened. Raheem Kassam would be with us, but he, Raheem is pub hopping today. He's going to join us Monday for a complete and total analysis nitrofarage and what happened in the UK the other day.

[Reform Party Spokesperson]

Good morning, everybody. I am delighted to be here in the sunshine outside Havering Town hall, which I can now say is under new management. And it's significant. It's our first win of a borough in London. And that in some ways goes against the trend because the pattern that's emerging over the country is that Labour are being wiped out by reform in many of their most traditional areas. And what you're going to see later on today is the Conservative Party being wiped out in their heartlands like Essex. So London goes a bit against the trend in that the Conservatives and Labour have held up in some of the other boroughs. But I think overall what's happened is a truly historic shift in British politics. We've been so used to thinking about politics in terms of left and right, and yet what reform are able to do is to win in areas that have always been conservative. But equally, we're proving in a big way we can win in areas that Labour have dominated, frankly, since the end

[Foreign Affairs Analyst]

of World War I.

[Reform Party Spokesperson]

At the moment, we're winning 1 in 4, 3 of all the seats that are up. But I genuinely think the best is yet to come. I'm very excited about the Northeast results, the Yorkshire results, some more to come in the West Midlands, Essex, we're feeling supremely confident and that's significant given that half the Shadow Cabinet have seats in Essex. So it's a big, big day. It's a big, big day, not just for our party, but for a complete reshaping of British politics in every way. And it all goes to show that over the course of the last two years, since we made that breakthrough in the general election, we have professionalised the party. We've done it at a very, very rapid rate. I'm thrilled and delighted.

[Foreign Affairs Analyst]

Do you think reform can corral enough support from the electorate to actually get, get enough seats in the Commons to make Nigel Farage Prime Minister?

[Political Interviewer]

That is a very, very good question. And then you go back sort of historically, the Liberal Democrats had exactly the same problem where they had, they had that their voter support was very deep in specific areas but did not translate across the country. And what we have here is the, the Farage support base is also, is, it's centred. Although I would say that in his case it is centred. It is a broader swathe of areas in which it does have support, which gives it a better chance. But I do take the point you're making and it is indeed an extremely valid one, which is that under our present first pastor post system, it was always weighted towards keeping the big parties that say the Tories and the Labour Party in and everyone else out. Will that change again? We have to wait to see.

[Reform Party Representative]

There's nothing more divisive than treating the British people like second class citizens in their own country. There's nothing more divisive than what we've got with a policy of open borders, a policy of mass uncontrolled immigration, scrap trying to scrap jury trials, trying to shut down people's free speech. The reason that we at Reform are doing so well today, the reason that we are reshaping the map of British politics, is because we've connected with the decent majority of hardworking, tax paying, law abiding British people who have had enough of being treated like second class citizens in their own country. Labour have clearly become disconnected from Britain. Keir Starmer, especially the Conservative Party. The brand is visibly dying and what's remarkable to me is the reach of reform. It's not just down the east coast of England, Essex and Kent anymore, it's into the northern Labour heartlands, it's into Wales, it's Angela Rayner watching all of those seats in Tameside go. Reform, where of course we ran the Gorton and Denton by election. That's the legacy of that by election. But also it's Lisa Nandi who has been very critical of reform. You know, Lisa Nandi called reform a fascist party not that long ago. Well, Lisa Nandi just woke up and discovered that we just won every single seat but one in Wigan, one of the strongest Labour heartlands. So this is unprecedented stuff.

[Political Strategist]

If we're not there, then people are either going to simply stay home or vote for Reform in the desperate attempt to get some change. So the idea that you can simply add up, you know, the labor votes and the Green votes and assume that that would, that would be. Make some sort of total. It's just not actually the way that voters think, the way that voters act. But how desperate are you to keep Nigel Farage out of number 10? Well, I mean, we are aiming to keep building. We're seeing increasing number of seats where we are keeping reform out. I mean, we haven't yet mentioned the wonderful results in Wales, where we've got our first Senate members and the second one of those was elected by keeping out a reform potential Senate member. I mean, we're doing great gardens. We still haven't got the final results, but in Scotland, we've just won our first constituency seat in Scotland, something we've never done before. And there's going to be some very good Scottish results that we haven't got yet. So our aim is to see, as people are increasingly seeing, that this next election is going to be a struggle between Green and Reform. We're the party of hope, they're the party of fear. But the electoral system doesn't work in your favour for that, does it? I mean, you know, Nigel Farrell Farage and Reform has reached a tipping point. So they're now benefiting from the first past the post system. You're still mired in it and that. And inevitably you're going to have to encourage people to vote tactically or do some kind of, you know, shady deals with Labour to try and keep out Nigel Farage, if that's what you want to do. I've only got to name one seat and one parliamentary by election in answer to that, which is Gorton and Denton, where we told people to vote Green, keep reform out. And that's exactly what happened.

[Stephen K. Bannon]

Okay. Matthew Goodwin, who, you know, we've had, I've talked a lot about and, and with on the show. He's been on Ben Harnwell's also. He's the really one of the populist leaders professor over there. What he said plays directly to the heart of where America is in politics because this is why Brexit was a forerunner of President Trump's victory in 2016. The reason we work so, so hard in Brexit. Raheem Gassam went over there and virtually ran it for Nigel.

[Radio Host/Advertiser]

People are tired of being second class

[Stephen K. Bannon]

citizens in their own country.

[Radio Host/Advertiser]

That message, loud and clear from England,

[Stephen K. Bannon]

will it come to the United States? We'll discuss Next in the war room.

[Radio Host/Advertiser]

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[Stephen K. Bannon]

I'm serious.

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