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[00:03]
A
this is the primal scream of a dying regime pray for our enemies because we're going amid the evil on these people i got a free shot all these networks lying about the people the people have had a belly full of it i know you don't like hearing that i know you try to do everything in the world to stop that but you're not going to stop it it's going to happen and where do people like that go to share the big lie maga media i wish in my soul i wish that any of these people had a conscience ask yourself what is my task and what is my purpose if that answer is to save my country this country will be saved war room here's your host stephen
[00:47]
B
k band thursday twenty fifth of june anno domini twenty twenty six harnwell here at the helm on steve bannon's war room well folks you might remember last thursday i mentioned this story about polymarket that had got a lot of people on social media angry about and you won't believe the reaction that i have had following this short piece that we've done probably one of the biggest things i've ever hit certainly outside of straight up politics i did invite folks to get in touch with me i'll give out that address again now i will also give out my email address at the end of the show it's benwell dot it for italy benarnwell dot it i'd ask you folks just to reach out to me only on this polymarket story that we're talking about on this instagram because i really just can't respond to everyone who writes in though i do obviously read everything that comes in okay so what is this story then just to give a recap as i did last thursday one of the largest geopolitical trade markets event contracts that was ever hosted by the polymarket website just a little bit under half a billion dollars in terms of total volume ended very controversially on the fifteenth of june and in loose terms denver if you wouldn't mind just putting that screen up and peter thanks very much then people can see exactly what we're talking about here that figure by the way is an old figure that the most up to date figure i've got is here according to the polymarket website itself is four hundred and basically four hundred seventy nine million dollars volume four hundred and seventy nine just a shade under half a billion dollars there and this is basically that this market was about whether there would be a permanent ceasefire between iran and america signed before and they had a whole series of dates because this thing was being rolled over basically from end of february onwards but the the the date in question was the fifteenth of june and quite scandalously this this market was decided before the text of the mou the memorandum memorandum of understanding had even been released ninety eight point nine i think percent of the votes on on the adjudicating body before the text had even been released saying it was a permanent ceasefire that goes massively against by the way what the white house is very clear about and president trump they said very clearly this is a temporary ceasefire of sixty days to which iran will be held to achieving certain targets even though just to give the other side's position here iran iran's negotiating position was explicitly it was interested in a permanent ceasefire so that's what he said now after we did this show last week i asked for people to get in touch with me if they if perhaps they if they had lost lost an investment on this and i said as i say a lot of people came in one of the people who reached out to me is going to join me now and we're going to respect his request for anonym anonymity so we'll just give his name as jump jump and in order to protect his right to privacy and his ability to discuss these things freely and one of the reasons for that no doubt is traders are still very much even though they've lost a lot on this they are very much active on polymarket and obviously people won't want to won't want to risk adverse reactions on behalf of of a platform in this way by speaking out too publicly so jump jump very welcome here onto steve bannon's war room grateful for you coming on now i thought what we would do to start off with because a lot of people will have heard of polymarket being a predictions market they're cited all the time in the news financial news political news increasingly as an interesting source an authoritative source to go to when it comes on political events like who's going to win the midterms what have you all sorts of things but there are a lot of people as well well that even though they've heard of polymarket they've heard of kalsheet they've heard of the concept of predictions markets they won't necessarily know exactly what they are how they work how they get involved in them whether they're legal to get involved with they're not access isn't allowed in all countries so i thought before we talk about this specific issue that the iran trade we just you and i will just talk about what polymarket is and how it works a lot of folks will know but i think a lot of folks equally won't know and will have some confusion so why don't we start with this and what is a predictions market and how does it work do you want
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me to jump in is my audio
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good here yeah yeah you're live now
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C
okay sounds good a prediction market it's actually surprisingly similar to a stock market a lot of the ways and how it works the only difference really is that the event contracts they either go all the way up to one or to zero so that's basically one hundred percent or zero so just like a stock market these have order books that you can place limit orders market orders there's a spread between the bid and ask so they have all of these different things you can place these orders on they can be political markets are you do you have something to
[07:09]
B
no no no sorry i didn't want to stop your flow but i did want to ask a question here when you say that a the price goes between not zero and one dollar basically that's a difference from from the standard stock market that can go yeah how does that work can you break that down and explain exactly why it works that
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C
way so it's basically it's a binary contract in the sense that it will have one of two resolutions basically either the contract is successful or it fails at the end but while that's occurring before that final resolution is reached that's when you'll have this what is basically a stock market it's basically the same idea where you'll have a price at any particular time and the price basically represents the percentage chance that the market believes the event will happen so for example you might have the price at thirty seven cents or so that would be a thirty seven percent implied probability
[08:22]
B
that it will happen or that it will not happen depending on thirty seven
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C
percent if it if it has a thirty seven percent chance to happen you have the other side sixty three percent chance that it won't happen so you can choose you can you can either take the side that it will happen or it won't happen and obviously those are just you know one minus the other one they're the opposing and you can take either of those options so
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B
when you say these are binary positions that's like something will happen america will win the the world cup or it won't yeah this will either happen or it won't and people will come in and they'll think you know they'll think i think america is going to win they'll see that perhaps the price is trading i don't know fifteen twenty percent or basically cents to be precise and they might say to themselves i think you know i don't i don't even know if they'll win or not but i think the market is undervaluing it so i will buy in the expectation that the price will rise to say forty five percent and then i'll sell
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C
so you just that's another possibility absolutely yep so you can you can buy and sell at any time so that's one difference from say some people compare it to like a sports book you obviously you can't do that so you can buy and sell your position at any time you think it's underpriced you can buy it you think it's overpriced you can sell it you can just even if you don't think it's overpriced maybe you want to just take profit whatever just like the stock market you can buy or sell at any time until it you know it resolves to zero or one so you you you
[09:58]
B
can exit your position at any time
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C
yes you don't have to wait until the resolution date you can literally anytime unless you're unless polymarket has like a like a downtime of a few minutes or something because they do have some bugs but aside from that literally any time of day buy or sell your position
[10:23]
B
and in the case in question right the trade in question the market in question the iran permanent peace deal question before fifteenth of june people could buy or sell according to whether they thought there was going to be a permanent ceasefire a permanent agreement between iran
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C
they could and and one thing obviously this will we'll get into it later but also one factor that you do potentially need to consider on these markets is it's you know you have will this happen won't this happen but you also do have to bear in mind sometimes you know who is resolving this market and you know should that influence your decision to trade it or not which most markets hopefully it's not complicated but it is something and it actually in some cases it does affect the market price of the ongoing market people's prediction not only of the market but of who and how the market will
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be resolved okay so as much as will this will happen will this happen this event in question happen or not but the question you're saying goes beyond that to will resolve this which which
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is unfortunate but it is it is
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consideration yes well you know what hold on to that jump we're gonna come just a quick shout out to our show sponsors now and we'll pick up after that on exactly this issue on resolving it and we'll talk about what resolution is and resolution criteria all right first of all however shout out to birch gold group we all know folks america is celebrating its two hundred fiftieth anniversary of the declaration of independence in a couple of weeks now and to commemorate that philip patrick and his team have announced this special offer it's a limited edition one ounce silver round not a coin it's a round commemorating the the the america two hundred fifty and that will go out to every ten thousand dollars of a qualifying purchase should you get that purchase in before july tenth folks that's the cutoff point july tenth just to give a quick recap here the spot price of gold ten years ago was around twelve hundred dollars now it is four thousand five hundred dollars huge increase there if you're wondering whether it's gold might increase to the same degree over the next ten years and you want in on the action perhaps you have a four hundred one k from a previous employer that you'd like to update or perhaps throw over into an ira in physical gold or even an old ira as well into an ira in physical gold that is something you can contemplate talk through your options with philip patrick and his team and also i'll do ask them about this special commemorative limited edition one ounce silver round to mark the two hundred fiftieth anniversary text bannon b a n o n to nine eight nine eight nine eight to take advantage of this free america two hundred fifty silver round offer with qualifying purchases before july tenth again text bannon b a n o n to nine eight nine eight nine eight and also shout out to our good friends over at chapter you can call eight hundred and forty five war room speak to their medical professionals tell them how much you're paying on your existing plan especially if you are if you if you are turning sixty five already on medicare and you think you could get a better deal perhaps you're aware already that many health insurance companies simply try to get you on the most expensive package possible that really isn't advantageous to your needs perhaps you think of spending too much well good great guys at chapter are there on eight hundred and forty five war room to talk through perhaps your options tell them what you're paying and see if they can source a better deal for you and they can probably do that in less than twenty minutes it's a totally free phone call with no pressure whatsoever no bs just straightforward honest help from fellow patriots so don't wait to call eight four five war room right now we're once again eight hundred and forty five war room and when you call them pick up the phone i do tell them that bannon sent you over great okay so moving on then so we were discussing resolution and you said just before the break jump that is not always the determining factor here of whether you think a specific market is going to resolve in yes or no it's the question that people are trying to second guess how is this issue going to be resolved what do we even mean here when we're talking about resolution and being resolved what does that mean in the context of a poly
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market so resolution is basically the finalization of a market is this a zero is it a loss is it a win or does it simply stay open so polymarket basically has two different ways that they resolve markets the first is basically well i should say this is mainly in terms of disputed markets because undisputed markets are just resolved through this their cryptocurrency token uma somebody proposes a resolution nobody disputes it it resolves people get paid
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B
okay so hang on let's just hold that as far as polymer i've seen as i've been doing the research for this show poly market says that like ninety eight of its positions resolve without dispute right so we're talking about a very small minority here that
[17:04]
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goes yes but those are obviously those are obviously the ones the most controversial of course but yes so and there are also markets that resolve without a dispute but that's a few of them just resolved because nobody wants to put up the money to dispute them but most markets even even with sorry what'd
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B
you say what what does that mean what does it mean why do people need to put up money to dispute
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C
something so so in order to propose in order to propose a resolution on polymarket somebody puts up a dollar seven hundred fifty bond to basically say yes i think this is the resolution this market should be resolved and if nobody disputes that they get that seven hundred fifty dollars back plus you know just a couple of dollars for their effort in disputing the market so that's what
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B
it means there's a time window isn't there for two hours yeah it might
[18:06]
C
be four hours on some but it's usually two hours which is very short it's for something relatively uncontroversial like a sports game two hours is probably fine but for a complex geopolitical market where the information is uncertain two hours is extremely limiting jump let me ask you
[18:28]
B
this on the precise issue which as i say has blown up in the mainstream media but also especially in places like discord and social media chats and what have you am i right in thinking that the proposal for resolution of this specific market was submitted before the expiry of the deadline yes it's correct
[18:54]
C
that it is allowed if a market legitimately resolves before the conclusion time somebody is allowed to propose that it's been resolved but something to be aware of in these controversial markets is that a proposal can be made to put pressure on the market if somebody is willing to put up that seven hundred fifty dollars and wants to do it as quickly as some kind of complicated information is released that is an option that is available to people to kind of force the hand of the market to either to resolve or to force somebody to pay to dispute it bearing in
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B
mind that we're dealing with like many many billions of dollars passing through these prediction markets like polymarket and calci every month now the figure is accelerating astronomically exponentially if somebody submits the six hundred dollar deposit to force a resolution before the deadline you said that there's like two hours how do people even know that that's taken place in order to to dispute the to dispute that action
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C
you basically i mean theoretically you could probably do it through the cryptocurrency itself but realistically for most people you basically just have to have the web page open and see that it's been proposed the other way you could see is if you notice a quick change to the value of your positions you could kind of be like wait what's what's going on here and just kind of look at it but really you just kind of have to be there looking at it to be aware that a market has been proposed because in the
[20:54]
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case of the position that we're talking about this half a billion dollar geopolitical market the the before the fifteenth of june deadline mid midnight if i'm not mistaken on the fifteenth of june had even passed the submit the submission had been made to resolute in the favor of yes right as i say before the text had even been released that brings us on to the question as to why would somebody do that before we do that i am right in thinking that you yourself had put down your own money to try and contest these forced resolutions okay
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C
but yeah another thing is so theoretically you know anybody could dispute these so what you have is of course there are markets that are pretty unambiguous and are legitimately somebody proposes them they are finished it's very simple but you do also have these markets where these proposals are often made very quickly relative to information coming out and in some cases again they might be correct but you have these very complicated markets often with information coming out of places like iran where you know it's obviously difficult to get good information on what is even happening and you only have two hours and so as we said it costs seven hundred and fifty dollars to propose a market it also cost seven hundred and fifty dollars to dispute a market but you have to do that it's kind of odd you have to do that twice so it's effectively one thousand five hundred dollars to dispute a market but because of how this uma protocol of how the people who run that view the situation you often will have to dispute something like six different markets so it could be up to nine thousand dollars or so to dispute a market and you have to make that decision within a two hour window so personally i think there are some issues there with that system of forcing people in a two hour window to make this complicated decision and if you don't pay this nine thousand dollars dispute fee and nobody else does you simply just lose
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B
yeah it's
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outgoing so this market yeah yeah so i'm just saying you might think there are sometimes you like maybe you even do think you're on the unfavorable side maybe you think you're on the favorable but even if you do think you're on the unfavorable side you might end up in a situation where you think you legitimately have like a twenty twenty five percent chance still of how the rules might be interpreted but you have to pay nine thousand dol to see what happens and it just it just might not be worth it you might just have to give up because your position is not worth that much money and so i didn't realize that but so the so if you win the disputes you get seven hundred fifty plus two hundred fifty so basically five hundred disappears to uma so basically the gist of it is you need a seventy five percent chance to win the dispute or you're losing money so yeah there's
[24:22]
B
some complications but no no no i was following this market in real time i i just want to say that i saw people invested on the no side they lost millions of dollars over this you it's all publicly traceable so you can go onto the website yourself and see that there are people there who literally lost from one day to the next millions of dollars yeah yeah
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C
there's something important for people to know so polymarkets even though it's it's pseudo anonymous it's cryptocurrency so everything you do is trackable but it's not necessarily connected to your name so all of this information is in a way public you know the wins and losses of different accounts on individual markets overall so yes everything you do there is even though it's not connected to your name everything you do on this cryptocurrency address is it's in it's in the ledger permanently and can be seen so it is something people should know jump i'm going
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to ask you a question now and we've got about like a minute before we go to the commercial break just give me a yes or no answer and then we'll expand on it some more afterwards is it your thesis and the people that you're the investors that you're in contact with on groups like discord and what have you is it your thesis that and you mentioned that the uma the oracle that is delegated by the polymarket platform into officially resolving these markets and all the disputes i should say is it your thesis that the people who were involved in voting on this market were also position holders for the yes side
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C
it's i would say it's overwhelmingly probable that some people were i mean it's difficult to prove you i mean if people use the same cryptocurrency address you could potentially track that they did it through on chain transactions that's not exactly my my specialty but that can be done however on
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that point on that point i actually have i actually have some research i'm going to share it with you on on that point idiot because the answer to that question is very revealing for exactly what's going wrong with poly market folks don't go away back in two
[27:00]
A
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kill america's voice family are
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in conservative media are speaking out download
[32:33]
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be part of the movement welcome back folks well if you just joined us for the first time i'm discussing polymarket with a guest who's asked to remain anonymous a request that we will obviously willingly accommodate for this show who's giving us a lot of experience and on on how polymarket the one of the world's leading prediction markets functions or doesn't function just before the break i asked our guest who's asked to be used the to use the name the alias jump for the purposes of this interview whether he believed this uma the resolution body the oracle which and i said it resolved two percent of the contracts it's actually zero point two percent tiny tiny fraction ever go into dispute
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but
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whether it's the the uma votes and we'll talk about how the hat just now will break this down about how it is these anonymous crypto wallets vote how they're weighted using these tokens we'll avoid the technical specifics but it is interesting and essential to understand the functioning of this website i asked i guess whether he believed that this vote the largest geopolitical voted position on polymarket it was really their marquee market they were pushing this very very hard on the iran usa permanent permanent permanent peace deal before fifteenth of june whether that vote was decided in favor of yes by the oracle the uma oracle on the basis that those wallets are voted for yes were in fact position holders for the yes vote and i want to come back to him and ask him to continue the point he was making on that because i think everything now that we're going to be discussing taking this forward on polymarket will resolve around the integrity of these resolutions whether they are resolved in good faith or not before i hand the microphone back to jump however i will just quote this research from the wall street journal which is picked up in the news site yellow and the journal's analysis of blockchain data found that get this right found that at least sixty percent of acta uma voters could be linked to polymarket accounts right that's something that polymarket doesn't want you to know that the organization that has effectively the unappealable voting authority to resolve all disputes on polymarket sixty percent of active uma voters their wallets could be linked to accounts on polymarket and in more than three hundred disputes this is still picking up the wall street journal's research in more than three hundred disputes or nearly one in five at least one voter held a financial stake in the outcome being decided finally the research indicates in most disputes the ten largest wallets controlled more than half the votes this is these are jump these are horrifying statistics for anyone who was investing in a in a no vote believing they were participating in a prediction market because it seems to me that the people who lost money on polymarket's largest geopolitical bet the people who lost money thought that they were betting on an outcome the people who won the money were people who were invested were voters who invested in that or people who were assuming that that those large voters would swing the vote in in the day give me your thoughts and assessment if you wouldn't mind on
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C
that thesis yeah so one thing to consider is so this uma token it's basically only actually cared about by people participating in polymarket it's basically a dead cryptocurrency except for its use here so it was at one point up to a peak of a two billion dollars market cap i'd have to double check and now is around forty million i believe so basically the only people who actually care about this token are people on polymarket and for obvious reasons you can kind of make the jump that again it's not you can't necessarily prove this easily but most of the early investors in uma are probably people who had specifically wanted the token in order to vote like there isn't much other reason to purchase this token unless you are interested in polymarket so again i mean we're kind what is it sorry
[38:26]
B
jump i've got to jump in here because the thesis behind this the whole the whole architecture behind this was that what would keep the uma votes
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honest
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B
true or honest was was the idea that if the uma wallet holders misused their position and resolved falsely the events contracts the token the the the crypto that they held would depreciate in value because because the the point about uma was that it was supposed to be that the token was supposed to have the value as a neutral independent arbiter right and if people absolutely correct corruptly that that value would fall would fall but what you've just said here was that originally that might have actually worked if the if the tokens it's an
[39:29]
C
interesting idea it absolutely is but it's kind of in my opinion horrible in execution at this point because you have this token that's worth you know maybe forty million dollars resolving markets that are maybe worth forty million dollars so and
[39:45]
B
if you already have this market this
[39:49]
C
this market i mean forty million in terms of active positions but yes
[39:57]
B
the volume of this market the iran market where people lost millions the total volume of that i was obviously going to be split between yes and no right but the the total volume of that was four hundred eighty million dollars so you're saying that technically for for these markets that are that large position holders could technically buy the whole all the uma that that are available to the tokens that all the time all the tokens the voting tokens that exist could be bought and they would amount to a tenth of the total position polymarket
[40:38]
C
viable business i would say in some ways it's better than that and in some ways it's worse because not all of these tokens are available on the market i believe there are still a couple of risk labs holders created uma which might be large holders so you can't buy the tokens unless people sell them so on one hand if you try to buy these tokens you might drive the price up but on the other hand you simply cannot buy all these tokens because you know a few of them are just going to be off the market so you have these people are basically locked in to this position i mean certainly you could buy more tokens but it's mostly just kind of these you know these age old holders and early invest or people who got into polymarket early those are going to be some of your biggest uma
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B
holders is it are you suggesting that a lot of these token holders are going to be old school ideologues who bought the token because they like the sort of libertarian concept behind it but
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C
a lot of i mean so risk labs created uma so i'm not one hundred percent sure i'm just going from what i've heard from others but there are still a couple of old holders from risk labs who do hold a very substantial amount of tokens and then you have a couple of people some polymarket whales who were there in the early days of poly markets when this token was fairly cheap to pick up there was a lot of liquidity so as i said the market cap is only forty million dollars or so i'd have to double check but it's in that range but if you because of the lack of liquidity it would actually be difficult to pick up a substantial stake so people are pretty entrenched into
[42:37]
B
this coin but we don't know because crypto wallet holders are all anonymous so we actually have no idea so it's
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C
pseudonymous yes it's it's it's trackable but anonymous so it's basically if people want to be careful they can be careful and basically hide you know who they are how many tokens they hold whether or not they're betting on polymarket with the same wallet but some people either just be lazy or they i mean they don't want to have to like try to launder money around so in some cases it is possible to track these coins back to their origin you know who holds what who's batting where but it requires you know analysis of the these blockchains which some people you know have programs that they used to do but that's not something
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B
but that's what the wall street journal has done when it comes out yes yes so
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C
they have people who know certainly more about that than i do so but
[43:41]
B
yes all right jump stay with me just gonna give out the quick word the halfway point already of the second half of the show i'll just give a quick shout out once again to our show sponsors and then come back to you for your closing words now on basically what you guys are doing now because there's talk of class action lawsuits and all sorts of things to hold polymarket to account on this birch gold once again i mentioned before it has this special offer before july tenth giving away this special america two hundred and fifty one ounce silver round for every ten thousand dollar qualifying purchase put in before that deadline check it out speak to philip patrick and his team by texting bannon b a n o n to nine eight nine eight nine eight and finally america's health share freedomforhealth dot org bannon check them out you get your first month absolutely free and then thereafter for as low as sixty eight dollars per month an individual can get great health coverage minus the complications and price gouging that's especially of interest to you if you're one of the millions of frustrated americans angered by traditional health insurance and you want to discover why tens of thousands are joining america's health share ahs america's health share ahs reduces your health care costs by an average of sixty percent and it's accepted everywhere once again special offer now first month free then sixty eight dollars per month thereafter check them out go to freedom for health and get your first month for free okay jump we've got about six minutes left now and i'm gonna ask you to come back on on the show to keep keep us updated on what's going on this isn't a story this was this took place as i say on the fifteenth of june that's ten days this story isn't going away in fact i think there's a certain degree of momentum there i was checking out the polymarket website just before coming on air tonight and people are still for a market that was closed ten days ago people are still basically every few minutes going on there and putting out very angry comments to do with polymarket anger at the way this was allowed to go because as i say polymarket was aware there was an issue before resolution and they stood by and did nothing many users expected them to freeze at least freeze the the accounts in real time pending an evaluation tell me jump what's going on on discord i hear talk a lot of talk about class action lawfare what what do you what's going on in terms of strategy wise with the users who feel quite considerably angry having lost many many hundreds of millions over this
[46:55]
C
incident i guess in terms i would say personally for myself i think the main strategy maybe it's just pessimism but the main strategy for me is just to kind of make sure people understand how these markets work and just kind of put pressure on that way i haven't really looked into the class action i'm kind of if i certainly will keep an eye out things but i'm actually not one hundred percent sure you know the relative success rate of that but just a couple more things to emphasize here just going back to what we said these these uma holders participating on the market it's kind of like you know we don't know for sure if they are but it's kind of like giving one hundred people the keys to your house and just kind of hoping nobody comes in and takes your stuff like that's almost guaranteed that they're participating it's why they many of them bought the coin to begin with like it's effectively absolutely certain that some of the people you know betting on these markets are also the people that are voting to resolve them and just another thing to note i mean polymarket themselves from my own observation i don't think they really trust uma themselves even because most of the time as i said earlier we don't have too much time but there are two resolution methods on polymarket one is that polymarket resolves it themselves through a clarification so they say technically we're not resolving it but they are they're telling the uma how to vote they resolve it themselves they say this is what's going to happen on this market and the other is through uma so i would say eighty to ninety percent of disputes poly market resolves themselves but for whatever reason this particular markets i mean i believe they just probably wanted an accountability shield so they just decided to leave it to uma for this market why you know it's anybody's guess why they decided they didn't want to take the heats for this particular market but i think i think
[49:06]
B
this market was too large and too well known there were previous markets that have been resolved to do with for example we'll cover these in future shows to the minerals deal between the us and ukraine that was a big similarly resolved on the basis of a mineral steel had been signed and it hadn't been signed there was a bitcoin issue i think to do the price of bitcoin a couple of months ago so these things do that they are present in the background yeah yeah we don't
[49:41]
C
have time to discuss it but the minerals one was a very kind of crazy uma abuse effectively of the system but we don't it was intentionally done when polymarket wasn't even there but yes it was
[49:56]
B
let me take the final ninety seconds and say this right as far as i'm aware looking at the anger in the comments on polymarket which is where i go to rather than discord because i don't know how to use discord it seems to me that what people are angry about this not only about the injustice but because they feel betrayed by polymarket they had a huge amount of goodwill towards polymarket as a predictions market platform they wanted it to work and also they correctly anticipated a future event and they feel not only have they been cheated out of that but polymarket has done nothing to protect their interests and because this is their largest geopolitical market there are some sports markets that have had more than half a billion dollars but because this was their their marquee geopolitical market they certainly knew what was happening here they could see it they were watching it on their own streets and they did
[50:57]
C
nothing to step in so one thing
[50:59]
B
i would protect the interests of their users if please go ahead if poly
[51:03]
C
if polymarket had themselves taken responsibility and resolved this even if they resolved it against me i would have been unhappy but i wouldn't be here talking to you right now it's because they kind of you know they left it to this you know highly biased this cryptocurrency coin that i personally don't trust i don't think polymarket trust i don't think many people trust it because they left it to these token holders cryptocurrency tokens pseudo anonymous cryptocurrency token holders who could be participating in this market themselves and almost assuredly are you know because that's how they chose to do this to not take responsibility themselves that's why i'm
[51:43]
B
here all right jump i am very grateful for you look there is a site i know it's not your site but i will mention it now for people to check out this was also sent to me following the public service announcement i gave last week you can go to polymarket scam dot com i mean it tells you where it's coming from on there polymarketscan dot com that has a lot of information for people to check out jump you tell me where do people where can people go in the meantime we'll continue to follow this because a lot of our viewers have been affected by this just where do people go from your part i know you're involved in discord and and getting sort of channeling the anger there where would you direct people to go to get more information on this one
[52:31]
C
that's actually it's unfortunately a very difficult question i mean that's basically why i'm here you know try to get information out you know try to get people to understand the options are pretty difficult you could go to discord the palm market discord but i mean that's the equivalent sometimes it's like a twitter stream where it's just kind of a cacophony of you know people talking so it's actually very difficult i wish i had a better answer for you all i'll see i continue to kind of look if there's any news myself but just getting word out now is kind of
[53:03]
B
the that's what we'll do you as i gave the address out before ben at harnworld dot it ben at harnwell dot it for italy write to me there in the meantime and then share your experiences with me that's all we've got time for thanks to jump and thanks to will a real america's voice
[53:20]
A
in denver why wait till you're down to your last pill stuck traveling or dealing with a packed pharmacy when you can already have your medications on hand seriously you know what you normally take you already know what your family could need that makes no sense smart families don't operate like that that's why i love all family pharmacy they're built a better simpler system to get your prescription medications you go online fill out a quick medical form licensed doctors review your requests prescribe if appropriate and your medications are shipped directly to your door no waiting rooms no pharmacy lines no insurance nonsense people are traveling more schedules are getting crazier and have your medications already on hand just makes your life easier because being prepared isn't paranoia it's common sense go visit my friends at allfamilypharmacy dot com that's one word allfamilypharmacy dot com bannon and use code bannon ten to save ten percent on your next order again that's allfamilypharmacy dot com bannon and use code bannon ten

Summary5 min read

Podcast Summary: WarRoom Battleground EP 1038

Podcast: Bannon’s War Room
Host: Stephen K. Bannon (with guest host Ben Harnwell)
Episode Title: WSJ Reports That 60% Of Polymarket Disputes Resolved By UMA Wallets Linked To…Polymarket Accounts!
Date: June 25, 2026

Main Theme

This episode investigates a significant controversy surrounding Polymarket, a major blockchain-based prediction market. The discussion centers on allegations—highlighted by recent Wall Street Journal reporting—that the decentralized arbitration system (UMA) used to resolve high-value, disputed contracts may be compromised. Specifically, the host and his guest ("Jump," an active Polymarket user speaking anonymously) explore evidence that the people resolving disputes on Polymarket might also be among the platform’s biggest bettors, with potential conflicts of interest, especially regarding the recent market on a supposed "permanent" Iran-U.S. ceasefire.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Background of the Polymarket Controversy

[00:47–06:23]

The host (Ben Harnwell) recaps a massive prediction contract on Polymarket, dealing with whether the U.S. and Iran would sign a permanent ceasefire by June 15. The market saw nearly $480 million in volume.
The contract was resolved in favor of "Yes" (permanent ceasefire) before the text of the relevant memorandum of understanding (MOU) was publicly released, inciting anger among users—especially those who lost large sums betting "No."
The White House and Donald Trump characterized the deal as a temporary 60-day ceasefire, not permanent—a discrepancy from Polymarket’s resolution.

2. Explanation of Prediction Markets and Polymarket Mechanics

[06:24–10:47]

Jump describes prediction markets as similar to stock markets, but with binary outcomes (“yes” or “no”). The price reflects the implied probability an event occurs.
Unlike sportsbooks, participants can buy and sell positions at any time before final resolution.

“A prediction market…is actually surprisingly similar to a stock market…The difference really is that the event contracts either go all the way up to one or to zero.” – Jump [06:28]

3. How Market Resolution Works on Polymarket

[15:59–21:39]

Most markets resolve automatically and without dispute through a UMA (Universal Market Access) protocol. If undisputed, a small bond is returned and payout occurs.
Disputed resolutions require users to stake significant sums (up to $9,000 for multiple disputes), within a brief two-hour window, to contest outcomes.
Jump highlights the challenge for most users to monitor the market closely enough to respond in time, especially when large sums are at stake and information is opaque (e.g., Iran diplomacy).

“Polymarket says that like 98% of its positions resolve without dispute … but those [disputed ones] are obviously the most controversial.” – Harnwell [16:40] “You basically just have to have the webpage open and see that it’s been proposed…” – Jump [20:16]

4. Evidence of Conflict of Interest in Dispute Resolution

[33:50–34:53]

Wall Street Journal research: At least 60% of active UMA voters can be linked to Polymarket accounts; in nearly 1 in 5 disputes, at least one voter held a direct financial stake in the outcome.
The 10 largest wallets controlled more than half of votes in most disputes.
This undermines confidence in UMA as a neutral arbiter.

“At least sixty percent of active UMA voters could be linked to Polymarket accounts…In more than three hundred disputes…at least one voter held a financial stake in the outcome being decided.” – Harnwell quoting WSJ [35:15] “It’s kind of like giving one hundred people the keys to your house and just kind of hoping nobody comes in and takes your stuff…” – Jump [46:55]

5. Structural Issues with UMA and Market Manipulation Risks

[37:19–43:36]

UMA tokens are held primarily by early Polymarket investors and insiders; the token’s supposed value as an objective, market-keeper is questionable, given its actual utility is resolving Polymarket markets.
The token’s total value (~$40 million) is dwarfed by market volumes, making it feasible for major players to sway or even “buy out” the resolution process.

“You have this token that’s worth maybe $40 million resolving markets that are maybe worth $40 million…If you try to buy these tokens you might drive the price up but…you simply cannot buy all these tokens because a few of them just aren’t for sale.” – Jump [39:28, 40:37]

6. Platform Accountability and User Response

[44:00–49:56]

Many now accuse Polymarket of deliberately abdicating responsibility to UMA for its highest-profile, most controversial markets, possibly as an “accountability shield.”
A sense of betrayal permeates the user base, as Polymarket had, in previous disputes, taken hands-on action but stood by passively in this high-stakes case.
Users discuss possible class-action lawsuits; most, like Jump, focus on raising awareness and warning others, given the technical/legal complexity.

“If Polymarket had taken responsibility and resolved this—even if they resolved it against me—I’d have been unhappy, but I wouldn’t be here talking to you right now.” – Jump [51:03]

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

On the scale and public nature of losses:

“There are people there who literally lost, from one day to the next, millions of dollars.” – Harnwell [24:21]

On the integrity of dispute resolution:

“[Resolving markets] is kind of like giving one hundred people the keys to your house and just hoping nobody comes in and takes your stuff.” – Jump [46:55]

On the unique nature of UMA tokens and their holders:

“The only people who actually care about this token are people on Polymarket … most of the early investors in UMA are probably people who had specifically wanted the token in order to vote.” – Jump [37:19]

On Polymarket’s choice to defer responsibility:

“I think…they just probably wanted an accountability shield, so they decided to leave it to UMA for this market.” – Jump [46:55]

Important Timestamps

Episode Start/Main Theme Intro: [00:02]
Recap of Iran Ceasefire Market History: [00:47–06:23]
Jump’s Explanation of Prediction Markets: [06:28–10:47]
Resolution Criteria & Dispute Mechanics: [15:59–21:39]
Discussion of Conflicts in UMA Voting (with WSJ stats): [33:50–36:00]
In-depth Critique of UMA Architecture: [37:19–43:36]
User Backlash & Legal Reactions: [44:00–49:56]
Jump’s Final Thoughts on Transparency and Accountability: [51:03–53:02]

Resources & Where To Go Next

For Polymarket-affected users:
Polymarketscam.com (Watchdog site sharing documentation/analysis)
To contact the host:
ben@harnwell.it (Ben Harnwell invites listeners to share experiences and evidence)

Episode Takeaways

Transparency Over Promise: Polymarket’s reliance on UMA as a neutral dispute resolver appears significantly compromised; insider voting and short resolution windows can shape lucrative market outcomes.
Calls for Reform: User frustration has shifted from pure financial loss toward a perceived betrayal by Polymarket as a supposedly fair arbiter of real-world events.
Cautious Engagement Advised: Listeners are urged to understand the mechanics and risks of prediction markets—especially in unresolved and controversial global event contracts.

Tone:
The discussion is urgent, skeptical, and combative—reflecting both technical scrutiny and a populist sense of injustice among everyday users who feel “burned” by unregulated financial innovations.

End of Summary

Loading summary

Transcript76 lines

[00:03]
A
this is the primal scream of a dying regime pray for our enemies because we're going amid the evil on these people i got a free shot all these networks lying about the people the people have had a belly full of it i know you don't like hearing that i know you try to do everything in the world to stop that but you're not going to stop it it's going to happen and where do people like that go to share the big lie maga media i wish in my soul i wish that any of these people had a conscience ask yourself what is my task and what is my purpose if that answer is to save my country this country will be saved war room here's your host stephen
[00:47]
B
k band thursday twenty fifth of june anno domini twenty twenty six harnwell here at the helm on steve bannon's war room well folks you might remember last thursday i mentioned this story about polymarket that had got a lot of people on social media angry about and you won't believe the reaction that i have had following this short piece that we've done probably one of the biggest things i've ever hit certainly outside of straight up politics i did invite folks to get in touch with me i'll give out that address again now i will also give out my email address at the end of the show it's benwell dot it for italy benarnwell dot it i'd ask you folks just to reach out to me only on this polymarket story that we're talking about on this instagram because i really just can't respond to everyone who writes in though i do obviously read everything that comes in okay so what is this story then just to give a recap as i did last thursday one of the largest geopolitical trade markets event contracts that was ever hosted by the polymarket website just a little bit under half a billion dollars in terms of total volume ended very controversially on the fifteenth of june and in loose terms denver if you wouldn't mind just putting that screen up and peter thanks very much then people can see exactly what we're talking about here that figure by the way is an old figure that the most up to date figure i've got is here according to the polymarket website itself is four hundred and basically four hundred seventy nine million dollars volume four hundred and seventy nine just a shade under half a billion dollars there and this is basically that this market was about whether there would be a permanent ceasefire between iran and america signed before and they had a whole series of dates because this thing was being rolled over basically from end of february onwards but the the the date in question was the fifteenth of june and quite scandalously this this market was decided before the text of the mou the memorandum memorandum of understanding had even been released ninety eight point nine i think percent of the votes on on the adjudicating body before the text had even been released saying it was a permanent ceasefire that goes massively against by the way what the white house is very clear about and president trump they said very clearly this is a temporary ceasefire of sixty days to which iran will be held to achieving certain targets even though just to give the other side's position here iran iran's negotiating position was explicitly it was interested in a permanent ceasefire so that's what he said now after we did this show last week i asked for people to get in touch with me if they if perhaps they if they had lost lost an investment on this and i said as i say a lot of people came in one of the people who reached out to me is going to join me now and we're going to respect his request for anonym anonymity so we'll just give his name as jump jump and in order to protect his right to privacy and his ability to discuss these things freely and one of the reasons for that no doubt is traders are still very much even though they've lost a lot on this they are very much active on polymarket and obviously people won't want to won't want to risk adverse reactions on behalf of of a platform in this way by speaking out too publicly so jump jump very welcome here onto steve bannon's war room grateful for you coming on now i thought what we would do to start off with because a lot of people will have heard of polymarket being a predictions market they're cited all the time in the news financial news political news increasingly as an interesting source an authoritative source to go to when it comes on political events like who's going to win the midterms what have you all sorts of things but there are a lot of people as well well that even though they've heard of polymarket they've heard of kalsheet they've heard of the concept of predictions markets they won't necessarily know exactly what they are how they work how they get involved in them whether they're legal to get involved with they're not access isn't allowed in all countries so i thought before we talk about this specific issue that the iran trade we just you and i will just talk about what polymarket is and how it works a lot of folks will know but i think a lot of folks equally won't know and will have some confusion so why don't we start with this and what is a predictions market and how does it work do you want
[06:24]
C
me to jump in is my audio
[06:25]
B
good here yeah yeah you're live now
[06:28]
C
okay sounds good a prediction market it's actually surprisingly similar to a stock market a lot of the ways and how it works the only difference really is that the event contracts they either go all the way up to one or to zero so that's basically one hundred percent or zero so just like a stock market these have order books that you can place limit orders market orders there's a spread between the bid and ask so they have all of these different things you can place these orders on they can be political markets are you do you have something to
[07:09]
B
no no no sorry i didn't want to stop your flow but i did want to ask a question here when you say that a the price goes between not zero and one dollar basically that's a difference from from the standard stock market that can go yeah how does that work can you break that down and explain exactly why it works that
[07:36]
C
way so it's basically it's a binary contract in the sense that it will have one of two resolutions basically either the contract is successful or it fails at the end but while that's occurring before that final resolution is reached that's when you'll have this what is basically a stock market it's basically the same idea where you'll have a price at any particular time and the price basically represents the percentage chance that the market believes the event will happen so for example you might have the price at thirty seven cents or so that would be a thirty seven percent implied probability
[08:22]
B
that it will happen or that it will not happen depending on thirty seven
[08:26]
C
percent if it if it has a thirty seven percent chance to happen you have the other side sixty three percent chance that it won't happen so you can choose you can you can either take the side that it will happen or it won't happen and obviously those are just you know one minus the other one they're the opposing and you can take either of those options so
[08:49]
B
when you say these are binary positions that's like something will happen america will win the the world cup or it won't yeah this will either happen or it won't and people will come in and they'll think you know they'll think i think america is going to win they'll see that perhaps the price is trading i don't know fifteen twenty percent or basically cents to be precise and they might say to themselves i think you know i don't i don't even know if they'll win or not but i think the market is undervaluing it so i will buy in the expectation that the price will rise to say forty five percent and then i'll sell
[09:27]
C
so you just that's another possibility absolutely yep so you can you can buy and sell at any time so that's one difference from say some people compare it to like a sports book you obviously you can't do that so you can buy and sell your position at any time you think it's underpriced you can buy it you think it's overpriced you can sell it you can just even if you don't think it's overpriced maybe you want to just take profit whatever just like the stock market you can buy or sell at any time until it you know it resolves to zero or one so you you you
[09:58]
B
can exit your position at any time
[10:02]
C
yes you don't have to wait until the resolution date you can literally anytime unless you're unless polymarket has like a like a downtime of a few minutes or something because they do have some bugs but aside from that literally any time of day buy or sell your position
[10:23]
B
and in the case in question right the trade in question the market in question the iran permanent peace deal question before fifteenth of june people could buy or sell according to whether they thought there was going to be a permanent ceasefire a permanent agreement between iran
[10:47]
C
they could and and one thing obviously this will we'll get into it later but also one factor that you do potentially need to consider on these markets is it's you know you have will this happen won't this happen but you also do have to bear in mind sometimes you know who is resolving this market and you know should that influence your decision to trade it or not which most markets hopefully it's not complicated but it is something and it actually in some cases it does affect the market price of the ongoing market people's prediction not only of the market but of who and how the market will
[11:29]
B
be resolved okay so as much as will this will happen will this happen this event in question happen or not but the question you're saying goes beyond that to will resolve this which which
[11:43]
C
is unfortunate but it is it is
[11:46]
B
consideration yes well you know what hold on to that jump we're gonna come just a quick shout out to our show sponsors now and we'll pick up after that on exactly this issue on resolving it and we'll talk about what resolution is and resolution criteria all right first of all however shout out to birch gold group we all know folks america is celebrating its two hundred fiftieth anniversary of the declaration of independence in a couple of weeks now and to commemorate that philip patrick and his team have announced this special offer it's a limited edition one ounce silver round not a coin it's a round commemorating the the the america two hundred fifty and that will go out to every ten thousand dollars of a qualifying purchase should you get that purchase in before july tenth folks that's the cutoff point july tenth just to give a quick recap here the spot price of gold ten years ago was around twelve hundred dollars now it is four thousand five hundred dollars huge increase there if you're wondering whether it's gold might increase to the same degree over the next ten years and you want in on the action perhaps you have a four hundred one k from a previous employer that you'd like to update or perhaps throw over into an ira in physical gold or even an old ira as well into an ira in physical gold that is something you can contemplate talk through your options with philip patrick and his team and also i'll do ask them about this special commemorative limited edition one ounce silver round to mark the two hundred fiftieth anniversary text bannon b a n o n to nine eight nine eight nine eight to take advantage of this free america two hundred fifty silver round offer with qualifying purchases before july tenth again text bannon b a n o n to nine eight nine eight nine eight and also shout out to our good friends over at chapter you can call eight hundred and forty five war room speak to their medical professionals tell them how much you're paying on your existing plan especially if you are if you if you are turning sixty five already on medicare and you think you could get a better deal perhaps you're aware already that many health insurance companies simply try to get you on the most expensive package possible that really isn't advantageous to your needs perhaps you think of spending too much well good great guys at chapter are there on eight hundred and forty five war room to talk through perhaps your options tell them what you're paying and see if they can source a better deal for you and they can probably do that in less than twenty minutes it's a totally free phone call with no pressure whatsoever no bs just straightforward honest help from fellow patriots so don't wait to call eight four five war room right now we're once again eight hundred and forty five war room and when you call them pick up the phone i do tell them that bannon sent you over great okay so moving on then so we were discussing resolution and you said just before the break jump that is not always the determining factor here of whether you think a specific market is going to resolve in yes or no it's the question that people are trying to second guess how is this issue going to be resolved what do we even mean here when we're talking about resolution and being resolved what does that mean in the context of a poly
[16:00]
C
market so resolution is basically the finalization of a market is this a zero is it a loss is it a win or does it simply stay open so polymarket basically has two different ways that they resolve markets the first is basically well i should say this is mainly in terms of disputed markets because undisputed markets are just resolved through this their cryptocurrency token uma somebody proposes a resolution nobody disputes it it resolves people get paid
[16:40]
B
okay so hang on let's just hold that as far as polymer i've seen as i've been doing the research for this show poly market says that like ninety eight of its positions resolve without dispute right so we're talking about a very small minority here that
[17:04]
C
goes yes but those are obviously those are obviously the ones the most controversial of course but yes so and there are also markets that resolve without a dispute but that's a few of them just resolved because nobody wants to put up the money to dispute them but most markets even even with sorry what'd
[17:27]
B
you say what what does that mean what does it mean why do people need to put up money to dispute
[17:33]
C
something so so in order to propose in order to propose a resolution on polymarket somebody puts up a dollar seven hundred fifty bond to basically say yes i think this is the resolution this market should be resolved and if nobody disputes that they get that seven hundred fifty dollars back plus you know just a couple of dollars for their effort in disputing the market so that's what
[17:59]
B
it means there's a time window isn't there for two hours yeah it might
[18:06]
C
be four hours on some but it's usually two hours which is very short it's for something relatively uncontroversial like a sports game two hours is probably fine but for a complex geopolitical market where the information is uncertain two hours is extremely limiting jump let me ask you
[18:28]
B
this on the precise issue which as i say has blown up in the mainstream media but also especially in places like discord and social media chats and what have you am i right in thinking that the proposal for resolution of this specific market was submitted before the expiry of the deadline yes it's correct
[18:54]
C
that it is allowed if a market legitimately resolves before the conclusion time somebody is allowed to propose that it's been resolved but something to be aware of in these controversial markets is that a proposal can be made to put pressure on the market if somebody is willing to put up that seven hundred fifty dollars and wants to do it as quickly as some kind of complicated information is released that is an option that is available to people to kind of force the hand of the market to either to resolve or to force somebody to pay to dispute it bearing in
[19:39]
B
mind that we're dealing with like many many billions of dollars passing through these prediction markets like polymarket and calci every month now the figure is accelerating astronomically exponentially if somebody submits the six hundred dollar deposit to force a resolution before the deadline you said that there's like two hours how do people even know that that's taken place in order to to dispute the to dispute that action
[20:17]
C
you basically i mean theoretically you could probably do it through the cryptocurrency itself but realistically for most people you basically just have to have the web page open and see that it's been proposed the other way you could see is if you notice a quick change to the value of your positions you could kind of be like wait what's what's going on here and just kind of look at it but really you just kind of have to be there looking at it to be aware that a market has been proposed because in the
[20:54]
B
case of the position that we're talking about this half a billion dollar geopolitical market the the before the fifteenth of june deadline mid midnight if i'm not mistaken on the fifteenth of june had even passed the submit the submission had been made to resolute in the favor of yes right as i say before the text had even been released that brings us on to the question as to why would somebody do that before we do that i am right in thinking that you yourself had put down your own money to try and contest these forced resolutions okay
[21:39]
C
but yeah another thing is so theoretically you know anybody could dispute these so what you have is of course there are markets that are pretty unambiguous and are legitimately somebody proposes them they are finished it's very simple but you do also have these markets where these proposals are often made very quickly relative to information coming out and in some cases again they might be correct but you have these very complicated markets often with information coming out of places like iran where you know it's obviously difficult to get good information on what is even happening and you only have two hours and so as we said it costs seven hundred and fifty dollars to propose a market it also cost seven hundred and fifty dollars to dispute a market but you have to do that it's kind of odd you have to do that twice so it's effectively one thousand five hundred dollars to dispute a market but because of how this uma protocol of how the people who run that view the situation you often will have to dispute something like six different markets so it could be up to nine thousand dollars or so to dispute a market and you have to make that decision within a two hour window so personally i think there are some issues there with that system of forcing people in a two hour window to make this complicated decision and if you don't pay this nine thousand dollars dispute fee and nobody else does you simply just lose
[23:26]
B
yeah it's
[23:27]
C
outgoing so this market yeah yeah so i'm just saying you might think there are sometimes you like maybe you even do think you're on the unfavorable side maybe you think you're on the favorable but even if you do think you're on the unfavorable side you might end up in a situation where you think you legitimately have like a twenty twenty five percent chance still of how the rules might be interpreted but you have to pay nine thousand dol to see what happens and it just it just might not be worth it you might just have to give up because your position is not worth that much money and so i didn't realize that but so the so if you win the disputes you get seven hundred fifty plus two hundred fifty so basically five hundred disappears to uma so basically the gist of it is you need a seventy five percent chance to win the dispute or you're losing money so yeah there's
[24:22]
B
some complications but no no no i was following this market in real time i i just want to say that i saw people invested on the no side they lost millions of dollars over this you it's all publicly traceable so you can go onto the website yourself and see that there are people there who literally lost from one day to the next millions of dollars yeah yeah
[24:50]
C
there's something important for people to know so polymarkets even though it's it's pseudo anonymous it's cryptocurrency so everything you do is trackable but it's not necessarily connected to your name so all of this information is in a way public you know the wins and losses of different accounts on individual markets overall so yes everything you do there is even though it's not connected to your name everything you do on this cryptocurrency address is it's in it's in the ledger permanently and can be seen so it is something people should know jump i'm going
[25:28]
B
to ask you a question now and we've got about like a minute before we go to the commercial break just give me a yes or no answer and then we'll expand on it some more afterwards is it your thesis and the people that you're the investors that you're in contact with on groups like discord and what have you is it your thesis that and you mentioned that the uma the oracle that is delegated by the polymarket platform into officially resolving these markets and all the disputes i should say is it your thesis that the people who were involved in voting on this market were also position holders for the yes side
[26:24]
C
it's i would say it's overwhelmingly probable that some people were i mean it's difficult to prove you i mean if people use the same cryptocurrency address you could potentially track that they did it through on chain transactions that's not exactly my my specialty but that can be done however on
[26:46]
B
that point on that point i actually have i actually have some research i'm going to share it with you on on that point idiot because the answer to that question is very revealing for exactly what's going wrong with poly market folks don't go away back in two
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A
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[32:21]
C
kill america's voice family are
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A
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[32:25]
C
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B
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A
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be part of the movement welcome back folks well if you just joined us for the first time i'm discussing polymarket with a guest who's asked to remain anonymous a request that we will obviously willingly accommodate for this show who's giving us a lot of experience and on on how polymarket the one of the world's leading prediction markets functions or doesn't function just before the break i asked our guest who's asked to be used the to use the name the alias jump for the purposes of this interview whether he believed this uma the resolution body the oracle which and i said it resolved two percent of the contracts it's actually zero point two percent tiny tiny fraction ever go into dispute
[33:50]
C
but
[33:50]
B
whether it's the the uma votes and we'll talk about how the hat just now will break this down about how it is these anonymous crypto wallets vote how they're weighted using these tokens we'll avoid the technical specifics but it is interesting and essential to understand the functioning of this website i asked i guess whether he believed that this vote the largest geopolitical voted position on polymarket it was really their marquee market they were pushing this very very hard on the iran usa permanent permanent permanent peace deal before fifteenth of june whether that vote was decided in favor of yes by the oracle the uma oracle on the basis that those wallets are voted for yes were in fact position holders for the yes vote and i want to come back to him and ask him to continue the point he was making on that because i think everything now that we're going to be discussing taking this forward on polymarket will resolve around the integrity of these resolutions whether they are resolved in good faith or not before i hand the microphone back to jump however i will just quote this research from the wall street journal which is picked up in the news site yellow and the journal's analysis of blockchain data found that get this right found that at least sixty percent of acta uma voters could be linked to polymarket accounts right that's something that polymarket doesn't want you to know that the organization that has effectively the unappealable voting authority to resolve all disputes on polymarket sixty percent of active uma voters their wallets could be linked to accounts on polymarket and in more than three hundred disputes this is still picking up the wall street journal's research in more than three hundred disputes or nearly one in five at least one voter held a financial stake in the outcome being decided finally the research indicates in most disputes the ten largest wallets controlled more than half the votes this is these are jump these are horrifying statistics for anyone who was investing in a in a no vote believing they were participating in a prediction market because it seems to me that the people who lost money on polymarket's largest geopolitical bet the people who lost money thought that they were betting on an outcome the people who won the money were people who were invested were voters who invested in that or people who were assuming that that those large voters would swing the vote in in the day give me your thoughts and assessment if you wouldn't mind on
[37:20]
C
that thesis yeah so one thing to consider is so this uma token it's basically only actually cared about by people participating in polymarket it's basically a dead cryptocurrency except for its use here so it was at one point up to a peak of a two billion dollars market cap i'd have to double check and now is around forty million i believe so basically the only people who actually care about this token are people on polymarket and for obvious reasons you can kind of make the jump that again it's not you can't necessarily prove this easily but most of the early investors in uma are probably people who had specifically wanted the token in order to vote like there isn't much other reason to purchase this token unless you are interested in polymarket so again i mean we're kind what is it sorry
[38:26]
B
jump i've got to jump in here because the thesis behind this the whole the whole architecture behind this was that what would keep the uma votes
[38:44]
C
honest
[38:44]
B
true or honest was was the idea that if the uma wallet holders misused their position and resolved falsely the events contracts the token the the the crypto that they held would depreciate in value because because the the point about uma was that it was supposed to be that the token was supposed to have the value as a neutral independent arbiter right and if people absolutely correct corruptly that that value would fall would fall but what you've just said here was that originally that might have actually worked if the if the tokens it's an
[39:29]
C
interesting idea it absolutely is but it's kind of in my opinion horrible in execution at this point because you have this token that's worth you know maybe forty million dollars resolving markets that are maybe worth forty million dollars so and
[39:45]
B
if you already have this market this
[39:49]
C
this market i mean forty million in terms of active positions but yes
[39:57]
B
the volume of this market the iran market where people lost millions the total volume of that i was obviously going to be split between yes and no right but the the total volume of that was four hundred eighty million dollars so you're saying that technically for for these markets that are that large position holders could technically buy the whole all the uma that that are available to the tokens that all the time all the tokens the voting tokens that exist could be bought and they would amount to a tenth of the total position polymarket
[40:38]
C
viable business i would say in some ways it's better than that and in some ways it's worse because not all of these tokens are available on the market i believe there are still a couple of risk labs holders created uma which might be large holders so you can't buy the tokens unless people sell them so on one hand if you try to buy these tokens you might drive the price up but on the other hand you simply cannot buy all these tokens because you know a few of them are just going to be off the market so you have these people are basically locked in to this position i mean certainly you could buy more tokens but it's mostly just kind of these you know these age old holders and early invest or people who got into polymarket early those are going to be some of your biggest uma
[41:33]
B
holders is it are you suggesting that a lot of these token holders are going to be old school ideologues who bought the token because they like the sort of libertarian concept behind it but
[41:48]
C
a lot of i mean so risk labs created uma so i'm not one hundred percent sure i'm just going from what i've heard from others but there are still a couple of old holders from risk labs who do hold a very substantial amount of tokens and then you have a couple of people some polymarket whales who were there in the early days of poly markets when this token was fairly cheap to pick up there was a lot of liquidity so as i said the market cap is only forty million dollars or so i'd have to double check but it's in that range but if you because of the lack of liquidity it would actually be difficult to pick up a substantial stake so people are pretty entrenched into
[42:37]
B
this coin but we don't know because crypto wallet holders are all anonymous so we actually have no idea so it's
[42:45]
C
pseudonymous yes it's it's it's trackable but anonymous so it's basically if people want to be careful they can be careful and basically hide you know who they are how many tokens they hold whether or not they're betting on polymarket with the same wallet but some people either just be lazy or they i mean they don't want to have to like try to launder money around so in some cases it is possible to track these coins back to their origin you know who holds what who's batting where but it requires you know analysis of the these blockchains which some people you know have programs that they used to do but that's not something
[43:33]
B
but that's what the wall street journal has done when it comes out yes yes so
[43:36]
C
they have people who know certainly more about that than i do so but
[43:41]
B
yes all right jump stay with me just gonna give out the quick word the halfway point already of the second half of the show i'll just give a quick shout out once again to our show sponsors and then come back to you for your closing words now on basically what you guys are doing now because there's talk of class action lawsuits and all sorts of things to hold polymarket to account on this birch gold once again i mentioned before it has this special offer before july tenth giving away this special america two hundred and fifty one ounce silver round for every ten thousand dollar qualifying purchase put in before that deadline check it out speak to philip patrick and his team by texting bannon b a n o n to nine eight nine eight nine eight and finally america's health share freedomforhealth dot org bannon check them out you get your first month absolutely free and then thereafter for as low as sixty eight dollars per month an individual can get great health coverage minus the complications and price gouging that's especially of interest to you if you're one of the millions of frustrated americans angered by traditional health insurance and you want to discover why tens of thousands are joining america's health share ahs america's health share ahs reduces your health care costs by an average of sixty percent and it's accepted everywhere once again special offer now first month free then sixty eight dollars per month thereafter check them out go to freedom for health and get your first month for free okay jump we've got about six minutes left now and i'm gonna ask you to come back on on the show to keep keep us updated on what's going on this isn't a story this was this took place as i say on the fifteenth of june that's ten days this story isn't going away in fact i think there's a certain degree of momentum there i was checking out the polymarket website just before coming on air tonight and people are still for a market that was closed ten days ago people are still basically every few minutes going on there and putting out very angry comments to do with polymarket anger at the way this was allowed to go because as i say polymarket was aware there was an issue before resolution and they stood by and did nothing many users expected them to freeze at least freeze the the accounts in real time pending an evaluation tell me jump what's going on on discord i hear talk a lot of talk about class action lawfare what what do you what's going on in terms of strategy wise with the users who feel quite considerably angry having lost many many hundreds of millions over this
[46:55]
C
incident i guess in terms i would say personally for myself i think the main strategy maybe it's just pessimism but the main strategy for me is just to kind of make sure people understand how these markets work and just kind of put pressure on that way i haven't really looked into the class action i'm kind of if i certainly will keep an eye out things but i'm actually not one hundred percent sure you know the relative success rate of that but just a couple more things to emphasize here just going back to what we said these these uma holders participating on the market it's kind of like you know we don't know for sure if they are but it's kind of like giving one hundred people the keys to your house and just kind of hoping nobody comes in and takes your stuff like that's almost guaranteed that they're participating it's why they many of them bought the coin to begin with like it's effectively absolutely certain that some of the people you know betting on these markets are also the people that are voting to resolve them and just another thing to note i mean polymarket themselves from my own observation i don't think they really trust uma themselves even because most of the time as i said earlier we don't have too much time but there are two resolution methods on polymarket one is that polymarket resolves it themselves through a clarification so they say technically we're not resolving it but they are they're telling the uma how to vote they resolve it themselves they say this is what's going to happen on this market and the other is through uma so i would say eighty to ninety percent of disputes poly market resolves themselves but for whatever reason this particular markets i mean i believe they just probably wanted an accountability shield so they just decided to leave it to uma for this market why you know it's anybody's guess why they decided they didn't want to take the heats for this particular market but i think i think
[49:06]
B
this market was too large and too well known there were previous markets that have been resolved to do with for example we'll cover these in future shows to the minerals deal between the us and ukraine that was a big similarly resolved on the basis of a mineral steel had been signed and it hadn't been signed there was a bitcoin issue i think to do the price of bitcoin a couple of months ago so these things do that they are present in the background yeah yeah we don't
[49:41]
C
have time to discuss it but the minerals one was a very kind of crazy uma abuse effectively of the system but we don't it was intentionally done when polymarket wasn't even there but yes it was
[49:56]
B
let me take the final ninety seconds and say this right as far as i'm aware looking at the anger in the comments on polymarket which is where i go to rather than discord because i don't know how to use discord it seems to me that what people are angry about this not only about the injustice but because they feel betrayed by polymarket they had a huge amount of goodwill towards polymarket as a predictions market platform they wanted it to work and also they correctly anticipated a future event and they feel not only have they been cheated out of that but polymarket has done nothing to protect their interests and because this is their largest geopolitical market there are some sports markets that have had more than half a billion dollars but because this was their their marquee geopolitical market they certainly knew what was happening here they could see it they were watching it on their own streets and they did
[50:57]
C
nothing to step in so one thing
[50:59]
B
i would protect the interests of their users if please go ahead if poly
[51:03]
C
if polymarket had themselves taken responsibility and resolved this even if they resolved it against me i would have been unhappy but i wouldn't be here talking to you right now it's because they kind of you know they left it to this you know highly biased this cryptocurrency coin that i personally don't trust i don't think polymarket trust i don't think many people trust it because they left it to these token holders cryptocurrency tokens pseudo anonymous cryptocurrency token holders who could be participating in this market themselves and almost assuredly are you know because that's how they chose to do this to not take responsibility themselves that's why i'm
[51:43]
B
here all right jump i am very grateful for you look there is a site i know it's not your site but i will mention it now for people to check out this was also sent to me following the public service announcement i gave last week you can go to polymarket scam dot com i mean it tells you where it's coming from on there polymarketscan dot com that has a lot of information for people to check out jump you tell me where do people where can people go in the meantime we'll continue to follow this because a lot of our viewers have been affected by this just where do people go from your part i know you're involved in discord and and getting sort of channeling the anger there where would you direct people to go to get more information on this one
[52:31]
C
that's actually it's unfortunately a very difficult question i mean that's basically why i'm here you know try to get information out you know try to get people to understand the options are pretty difficult you could go to discord the palm market discord but i mean that's the equivalent sometimes it's like a twitter stream where it's just kind of a cacophony of you know people talking so it's actually very difficult i wish i had a better answer for you all i'll see i continue to kind of look if there's any news myself but just getting word out now is kind of
[53:03]
B
the that's what we'll do you as i gave the address out before ben at harnworld dot it ben at harnwell dot it for italy write to me there in the meantime and then share your experiences with me that's all we've got time for thanks to jump and thanks to will a real america's voice
[53:20]
A
in denver why wait till you're down to your last pill stuck traveling or dealing with a packed pharmacy when you can already have your medications on hand seriously you know what you normally take you already know what your family could need that makes no sense smart families don't operate like that that's why i love all family pharmacy they're built a better simpler system to get your prescription medications you go online fill out a quick medical form licensed doctors review your requests prescribe if appropriate and your medications are shipped directly to your door no waiting rooms no pharmacy lines no insurance nonsense people are traveling more schedules are getting crazier and have your medications already on hand just makes your life easier because being prepared isn't paranoia it's common sense go visit my friends at allfamilypharmacy dot com that's one word allfamilypharmacy dot com bannon and use code bannon ten to save ten percent on your next order again that's allfamilypharmacy dot com bannon and use code bannon ten

WarRoom Battleground EP 1038: WSJ Reports That 60% Of Polymarket Disputes Resolved By UMA Wallets Linked To…Polymarket Accounts!

WarRoom Battleground EP 1038: WSJ Reports That 60% Of Polymarket Disputes Resolved By UMA Wallets Linked To…Polymarket Accounts!

Podcast Summary: WarRoom Battleground EP 1038

Main Theme

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Background of the Polymarket Controversy

2. Explanation of Prediction Markets and Polymarket Mechanics

3. How Market Resolution Works on Polymarket

4. Evidence of Conflict of Interest in Dispute Resolution

5. Structural Issues with UMA and Market Manipulation Risks

6. Platform Accountability and User Response

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

Important Timestamps

Resources & Where To Go Next

Episode Takeaways

Podcast Summary: WarRoom Battleground EP 1038

Main Theme

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Background of the Polymarket Controversy

2. Explanation of Prediction Markets and Polymarket Mechanics

3. How Market Resolution Works on Polymarket

4. Evidence of Conflict of Interest in Dispute Resolution

5. Structural Issues with UMA and Market Manipulation Risks

6. Platform Accountability and User Response

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

Important Timestamps

Resources & Where To Go Next

Episode Takeaways