Bannon's War Room: Battleground EP 873

Theme: President Xi Purges Top Military as Speculation Hints at Failed Coup
Date: October 20, 2025

Episode Overview

This episode focuses on a seismic political shakeup in Beijing: the mass purge of top military leaders by Chinese President Xi Jinping, which comes amid rumors of an attempted coup and potential instability within the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). Host Ben Hanwell brings together China analysts Captain Jim Fennell, Jim Rickards, and representatives from the New Federal State of China, Ava Chen and Forest Zhao, to dissect the causes, implications, and possible outcomes of Xi’s power consolidation, and what it means for China's future, its military trajectory, and the West.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

The Fourth Plenum and Xi Jinping's Power Struggle

• Background: The Fourth Plenary Session, a major, often annual political gathering of top CCP leaders, is the context for recent dramatic events.
• Xi's Continuing Consolidation: Despite being seen as having achieved maximum power, Xi is now facing renewed internal challenges from rival CCP factions and the Chinese military.

Jim Rickards' Historical Perspective

• Accordion Theory of Chinese Power

  • Recounts a historical pattern: “For 3,000 years, China centralizes, ... peaks, ... then it falls apart... then it consolidates again. This is like an accordion. ... It gets more centralized and then falls apart.” (03:06)
  • Predicts that Xi’s extreme centralization marks a peak, now followed by unraveling.

• Current Status

  • Jiang Zemin, Hu Jintao factions re-emerging.
  • PLA (People’s Liberation Army) is asserting more leverage; Xi’s authority is no longer absolute.
  • CCP internal purges and public humiliations, such as the historic removal of Hu Jintao, reveal deep ongoing factionalism.
  • China’s economy is in severe distress, with real GDP likely far below official figures. “Their GDP is down significantly. ... The economy is collapsing very quickly on top of all the politics...” (03:43)

The Mechanics and Implications of Military Purges

• Captain Jim Fennell's Analysis:
  • The recent purge of nine top generals, many of whom were Xi’s own hand-picked appointments, is an effort to pre-empt dissent at the party congress and ensure no disruption of the Fourth Plenum (07:04).
  • The purge highlights Xi’s continuing effort to clamp down on corruption, but also reveals that even trusted allies can become threats.
  • Military modernization and assertive PLA operations continue unabated, supporting Xi's stated goal of building a “global military” (09:26).
  • Despite leadership turbulence, there is no visible interruption of China’s military growth—if anything, the PLA is stepping up activity, particularly toward Taiwan.

The Nature of CCP Corruption and Purges

• Political, Not Ethical, Motivations:
  • Rickards argues: “They’re all corrupt. ... When you hear corruption charges being announced, it’s opportunistic and it’s political… It’s a way to get rid of people. ... Corruption, as I say, is just an excuse.” (13:22)
  • Purges serve as a tool for dealing with political adversaries, cloaked in moral or legal language.

Xi's Dilemma: Control vs Instability

• Endemic Resistance:

  • As Xi's rule extends, endemic CCP corruption and perennial rivalries intensify; his ongoing purges suggest growing, not receding, opposition (11:52).
  • The CCP’s structure is “not a monolith,” but a complex web of factions and local power centers, echoing centuries-old Chinese political culture.

• The Stakes of Xi’s Fate:

  • If Xi is removed, uncertainty looms over who could succeed him, with some military leaders (notably General Zhang) seen as potential regime hawks.
  • Any leadership transition risks either increased assertiveness (particularly toward Taiwan) or a pullback to stabilize the faltering economy (17:11).

Xi's Ideology and the Future of the CCP

• Xi’s "Redness":

  • He is seen as more ideologically committed to hardline communism than his immediate predecessors, resurrecting Maoist state economic control and party primacy (20:58).
  • “He’s more red than any other paramount leader that China’s had in its history since Mao. ... He has been pushing for the state owned enterprises and the control of the economy, centralized control and the importance of these five year plans.” – Captain Fennell (20:58)
  • Xi has adopted aggressive practices, including routine PLA incursions near Taiwan.

• PLA’s Role:

  • Xi has dramatically increased the use and modernization of the military, centralizing control over the armed forces and broadening PLA activities regionally and globally (21:52).
  • Even as Xi cycles out “unreliable” generals, the PLA’s trajectory is upward—both a tool and a source of threat for his leadership.

China’s Relationship with Russia and Global Ambitions

• Sino-Russian Alignment:

  • Fennell sees the China-Russia nexus as “the greatest strategic failure of the Biden administration,” deeply cemented through economic, military, and technological ties (23:39).
  • Even a leadership change in China may not quickly unravel this alignment, as mutual interests run deep.

• Prospects for "Normalization":

  • There is speculation that Western (especially European) states might welcome a new, less aggressive CCP leader and seek renewed engagement, but skepticism exists about fundamental, durable reform (25:46, 25:59).

Insights from New Federal State of China (Ava Chen & Forest Zhao)

The Purge as Power Consolidation and Warning

• Scope and Significance:

  • Nine top generals purged just days before the Plenum, including both Vice Chairmen of the Central Military Commission—many of whom “go back 20 years” as Xi allies (32:02).
  • The purge is a “strong message” that Xi maintains dominance: “By purging all those people he perceived [as] a threat … he is even more concentrating his power.” – Ava Chen (34:20)

• Echoes of Stalin & Mao:

  • Forest Zhao: “In communist dictatorship controls … there is nobody you can trust in this type of system. Nobody is safe, including Xi himself… The moment he sees anything, he will purge.” (35:32)
  • Purging one’s own trusted circle is classic behavior in such regimes, driven by deep-rooted mistrust.

• A Failed Coup?

  • Ava Chen claims: “Our intel suggests the reason why Xi Jinping has to act right away is this is a failed coup. ... These generals who Xi Jinping has personally picked ... are now turning against [him].” (37:20)
  • Precedent in Communist systems: those who enforce purges often become targets themselves.

Cycles of Paranoia and Opportunity for the West

• Long-term purges are now targeting the so-called “princelings” (second-generation party elites), of which Xi is himself a member, to prevent any challenge to Xi’s personal legitimacy (41:28).
• Internal instability offers rare leverage to the West: “When you apply the right pressure, you will enable the internal dissent [to be] magnified…” (40:48)

Domestic Reception and External Leverage

• The average Chinese person is not surprised by the cycle of purges; “The Chinese people are freedom-loving… The situation they are in, it’s all the result from Chinese [Communist] control.” – Forest Zhao (48:47)
• The Chinese population, demoralized by a failing economy, is not seeking confrontation with the West.
• U.S. and allied policy decisions—especially economic “decoupling”—could intensify CCP instability.

Implications for U.S.-China Relations

• Xi’s Demands: Purges and power plays are also intended to strengthen Xi’s hand in negotiations with the U.S., particularly over strategic minerals and Taiwan; Xi is expected to set explicit “red lines” for the U.S. in any deal (45:06).
• Ultimate Choice: The U.S. must choose: a “strong and aggressive China with CCP’s leadership,” or a “friendly, democratic and free country without CCP.” (48:47)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Jim Rickards (03:06):
  “For 3,000 years, China centralizes, centralizes, centralizes. ... That’s peak centralization. This is all going to fall apart. And it is in the process of doing that.”
• Jim Rickards (13:22):
  “They’re all corrupt... When you hear corruption charges being announced, it’s opportunistic and it’s political. ... Corruption, as I say, is just an excuse.”
• Captain Jim Fennell (20:58):
  “Xi is more red than any other paramount leader that China’s had in its history since Mao... He’s pushing through a top-down, centralized control of the economy...”
• Ava Chen (34:20):
  “By purging all those people he perceived [as] a threat… he is even more concentrating his power.”
• Forest Zhao (35:32):
  “This is nothing new to the Chinese people or… communist countries… Nobody is safe, including Xi himself.”
• Ava Chen (37:20):
  “The reason why Xi Jinping has to act right away is this is a failed coup.”
• Forest Zhao (48:47):
  “The Chinese people… have been slaved for more than 70 years… They are ready to fight and stand to get their country back.”
• Forest Zhao (51:13):
  “Absolutely, [Xi’s] time is running short now.”

Key Timestamps for Important Segments

| Timestamp | Topic/Segment | |-----------|------------------------------------------------------------------| | 02:15 | Jim Rickards opens analysis on the CCP’s internal struggle | | 07:04 | Captain Fennell: Military and political context of recent purge | | 13:22 | Rickards: Corruption as pretext for political purges | | 17:11 | Fennell: Consequences if Xi is removed/future power dynamics | | 20:58 | Fennell: Xi’s ideological ‘redness’ and impact on the Party | | 23:39 | Fennell: China-Russia relationship post-Xi | | 32:02 | Ava Chen: Details of the military purge and Xi's inner circle | | 37:20 | Ava Chen: Claims of a failed coup and its context | | 45:06 | Forest Zhao: Xi’s demands, U.S. negotiation, and strategic stakes| | 48:47 | Forest Zhao: Will of the Chinese people, choice for the U.S. | | 51:13 | Quickfire: Is Xi’s time running out? |

Conclusion

This episode presents a deep dive into the latest power struggle at the heart of the Chinese Communist Party. The speakers sharply illuminate the historical cycles of autocracy and collapse in China, the classic paranoia of totalitarian leaders, and the implications of Xi Jinping's ongoing, ruthless consolidation of power. The panel agrees that, while Xi’s grip has arguably never been stronger in the immediate term, this very centralization carries the seeds of instability, as the Party’s internal tensions and economic challenges mount.

The message for Western policymakers and audiences is clear: China is at a crossroads—with both high internal risk and undiminished external ambitions. The coming weeks may reveal whether Xi’s latest purge will secure his regime, expose new vulnerabilities, or accelerate a crisis that could reshape the global order.

To learn more:

• Follow Jim Rickards on X: @RealJimRickards
• Captain Jim Fennell writes at “American Greatness”
• New Federal State of China on Getter: @nfse

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