WarRoom Battleground EP 955: "Republicans Should Not Take The Hispanic Vote For Granted In Texas"

Date: February 24, 2026
Host: Steve Bannon, WarRoom.org
Main Guests: Luke Macias (Texas political analyst), Chris Russo (Texans for a Strong Border), Dorinda Randall (Vice Chair, Texas GOP, candidate for chair)

Episode Overview

This episode of WarRoom Battleground centers on the mounting political battles in Texas as the 2026 midterms approach. Host Steve Bannon gathers key Texas Republican figures—Luke Macias, Chris Russo, and Dorinda Randall—to dissect early voting turnout, the risk of Democratic energy surging in the state, and the pivotal Hispanic vote in South Texas. The conversation weaves together polling analysis, partisan turnout, campaign strategy, and the importance of President Trump's upcoming visit in shaping both local and national outcomes.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Early Voting Trends & Energy Gap

• Luke Macias reports: Republican early voting numbers are up compared to past elections, but warns that Democratic turnout is historically high, outpacing Republicans—especially due to a rare competitive Democratic Senate primary.
• Many of these new primary voters are long-time Democratic general election voters now engaging in the primary, rather than entirely new voters to the rolls.
• The "energy gap": According to polling and on-the-ground analysis, Democrats are 15–20 points ahead of Republicans in voter enthusiasm—mirroring national trends. This is causing concern that traditional Republican advantages in Texas could shrink significantly (from a 10-11 point state-level lead to as close as 4-5 points).
• Macias urges Republican grassroots to intensify personal outreach: “A lot of your friends are only going to vote if you send them your list and tell them it only took me five minutes to vote...” (06:46)

Notable Quote:

"Democrats have more energy than Republicans. There’s a much greater number...of Democrats that say, 'I am 100% definitely going to walk over broken glass to vote in November' than there are Republicans. It’s a 15–20 point margin."
— Luke Macias [06:30]

2. Shifts in the Hispanic Vote & South Texas

• Bannon and Macias detail the recent transformation in South Texas, once deep blue, now competitive or even tilting red, especially in counties like Starr. Trump outperformed establishment Republicans (like John Cornyn) in these areas, indicating MAGA’s specific appeal.
• However, Macias warns: Some voters are “moving back” toward the undecided column or drifting back to Democrats after only recently switching to the GOP. The region's loyalty must not be taken for granted.
• President Trump’s planned rally in South Texas is billed as vital for reinforcing the Republican foothold and energizing Hispanic GOP turnout in the region.

Notable Quote:

“Republicans should not take the Hispanic vote for granted. ...These are people who went from voting for Hillary Clinton...to voting for Donald Trump.”
— Luke Macias [12:00]

3. Implications for Congressional Control

• Macias projects that without closing the turnout/energy gap, Republicans risk losing 3–5 state House seats, one state Senate seat, and up to 3 congressional seats—many centered in South Texas.
• The stakes: Texas could become a battleground, and the national House majority (and Trump’s legislative agenda) may hinge on a handful of Texas races.
• Bannon and guests highlight that Democratic strategy is nationalized ("Handmaid’s Tale vs. Trump Revolution") and turnout is seen as existential by both sides.

Notable Quote:

“If Texas does not deliver for the President, he will not control Congress. ...There is not a path to control Congress if we don’t pick up every single one of those five seats.”
— Luke Macias [15:10]

4. Open Primary Dynamics & Grassroots Impact

• Chris Russo explains: Recent high Democratic turnout does not mean Republicans are defecting; rather, Democrats who sometimes vote in GOP primaries (to moderate outcomes) are returning to their own primary because of a competitive Senate race.
• This means the GOP primary will likely be more conservative, and those Democrats voting in their own primary cannot participate in GOP runoff elections—potentially boosting grassroots conservative outcomes.

Notable Quote:

“What it looks like...is that there are people who are Democrats who vote Democrat in November every time who have historically voted in Republican primaries...they are actually voting in their own party now.”
— Chris Russo [19:40]

5. Grassroots Strategy & Base Motivation

• All guests stress the need for GOP candidates to fully embrace their 2024 campaign promises, ignore advice to "moderate" for swing voters, and focus on motivating and turning out the conservative base.
• Randall and Russo repeatedly note that the left is voting out of existential fear — the right must do the same by emphasizing "jobs, jobs, jobs," energy, border security, and cultural issues directly impacting voters’ daily lives, especially in South Texas.

Notable Quote:

"What I would encourage all of these people to do is deliver on the agenda that you won on in 2024...in order to get this done, you guys have to come out."
— Chris Russo [24:42]

6. Role of President Trump’s Visit & Messaging

• All panelists agree that Trump’s last-minute trip to Corpus Christi—the heart of a fiercely contested South Texas region—serves both as an energizer for early voting and a signal of the stakes ahead.
• Dorinda Randall stresses: Trump’s presence validates the importance of the Hispanic vote and helps convert recent GOP converts into loyal, regular voters.
• Recommendations for Trump’s State of the Union: Focus on past promises delivered and specific contrasts with Democratic policies, particularly as related to the border, economy, and cultural issues.

Notable Quotes:

"So goes Texas, so goes the nation. ...Texas is going to set that tone. ...Texas will likely determine the control of Congress."
— Luke Macias [17:55]

"One of the things that they said [in South Texas] is...are you going to be there after you get elected? And to see Trump see them as the one of the most important parts of Texas...for them to be seen by the President...that is a big deal."
— Dorinda Randall [38:24]

7. The Policy Stakes: Border Security, Impeachment, and National Direction

• Russo urges continued hardline focus on immigration and mass deportations—a core MAGA/Trump promise—arguing that this was decisive in the 2024 GOP success and must remain front-and-center.
• Bannon and guests warn an energized Democratic turnout could result in impeachment of Trump and “chaos from the moment the new Congress is seated.”
• The left, they argue, is mobilized by stopping Trump, not policy nuance—a "black and white, existential" battle for both parties.

Notable Quote:

"If the Democrats take control of the US House, Trump and half of the Cabinet are getting impeached on January 21st...it’s going to be chaos."
— Chris Russo [23:27]

"This is not a policy debate...this is literally the personification of hate Trump. ...They are saying, we can stop Trump, and we can stop him here in Texas."
— Steve Bannon [23:52]

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments (with Timestamps)

• Macias – Voter Energy Gap:
  “Democrats have more energy than Republicans. …It’s a 15–20 point margin.” [06:30]

• Macias – Hispanic Vote in South Texas:
  “Republicans should not take the Hispanic vote for granted. …These are people who went from voting for Hillary Clinton...to voting for Donald Trump.” [12:00]

• Bannon – Stakes in Texas:
  “We could pull miracles out through the rest of the country. We will lose the House of Representatives and they will immediately move to impeach President Trump, full stop.” [10:54]

• Randall – Importance of Local Messaging:
  “We have to get the communication out there...the main thing for them [South Texas] is jobs, jobs, jobs. …Gasoline prices...the difference now that we have Trump in office, and a huge difference to their pocketbook.” [34:45]

• Russo – Mass Deportation Coalition:
  “The reason that you won in 2024, maybe the biggest reason...is immigration and is delivering on the promises of mass deportations. ...We’re saying here is the blueprint...to accomplish at least 1 million deportations per year.” [43:11]

• Macias – Texas Determines National Outcome:
  “So goes Texas, so goes the nation. …Texas will likely determine the control of Congress.” [17:55]

Timestamps for Key Segments

• [05:10–09:40] – Early voting trends, energy gap, why Democratic turnout is up
• [12:00–13:55] – Hispanic vote in South Texas: shifting loyalties and Trump’s unique appeal
• [17:16–18:46] – Trump’s campaign focus: importance of Texas, congressional implications
• [19:39–22:06] – Chris Russo explains open primary dynamics, implications for grassroots conservatives
• [23:52–25:31] – Turnout strategies: base motivation over swing voter “moderation”
• [31:50–34:45] – Randall on early voting and South Texas GOP enthusiasm
• [38:05–39:29] – The power of presidential visit: Trump’s effect on GOP energy in South Texas
• [43:11–46:34] – Russo on the immigration policy blueprint and why mass deportations matter

Conclusion: Takeaways for the GOP in Texas

• The real battleground for control of Congress could come down to Texas—especially the Hispanic-heavy regions of the South.
• Republicans cannot rest on past successes in South Texas; the Democratic base is highly motivated.
• Grassroots activation and clear communications are essential—especially around core GOP promises like border security, economic opportunity, and cultural issues.
• President Trump’s visit is both symbolic and strategic, reminding the party (and Hispanic voters) that Texas—and specifically South Texas—may determine not just local, but national power.
• The stakes, per Bannon and guests: win in Texas, or risk losing the House and presidency to an energized Democratic opposition.

For further info:

• Luke Macias: On X (Twitter) @lukemaciasTX, "The Luke Macias Show" on major podcast platforms
• Chris Russo: strongborders.org, @StrongBordersTX on X, Instagram, Facebook
• Dorinda Randall: randall4texas.com, reddertexas.com