Barstool Pick Em – 2024 Week 13 Recap

Podcast: Barstool Pick Em
Date: November 21, 2024
Hosts: Dan "Big Cat" Katz, Dave Portnoy (Pres), Rico Bosco
Notable Guests/Staffers: Garrett, Trey

Episode Overview

This episode brings the signature chaos as Big Cat, Pres, and Rico break down the betting slate for Week 13 of college football, discuss recent gambling heartbreaks, dive into the dysfunction caused by Rico's perpetual blinking and contact lens abuse, and rove through the evolving world of college football playoffs. As always, the guys showcase both their confidence and their chronic misery as gamblers.

Main Theme:

• Bantering through personal misfortunes, close misses, and degenerate betting strategies, with added color from Big Cat’s Heisman hedge dilemma and a running side plot about Rico’s disastrous contact lens hygiene.

Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. Recap of Bad Beats: The San Jose State Fiasco

• [02:12] Dan and Dave commiserate over one of the worst losses of the year, when San Jose State blew a 21-point cover:

  Dave: “So, like, they're plus 14 and a half. They're in the number the whole game. They're winning… I went to sleep, woke up, checked the score, and they lost by 21. The math in my head, I'm like, I knew. That doesn't make sense. So I… looked at the play by play, and it was a pick six… then Dan texted me 10 seconds later, he's like, did you see the end of the game?... They drove to the one with, like, plenty of time left.”

  • The guys agree: first-and-goal at the 1-yard line, you should always score. The fact San Jose State didn’t, especially for gambling purposes, was catastrophic.

2. The Great Contact Lens Debate: Rico’s Blinking Crisis

• [04:46] – [11:40] Continual distraction from Rico's excessive blinking leads to a running inquisition on his shocking contact lens habits.
  • Rico admits he wears regular contacts for “a month and a half” straight, sleeping in them, never cleaning them, and can't figure out why his eyes are so irritated.
  • The crew ropes in other staffers (Garrett, then Trey) for their takes:
    • Garrett: “A month and a half? Not that I know of.” [08:32]
    • Trey: “That’s terrible. You’re not supposed to do more than one day.” [10:01]
  • Memorable Moment:
    • Dan: “Rico, I'll say this. You're blinking so much, people aren't going to notice the herpe on your lip.” [11:56]
    • Rico protests: “No, that's a zit, dude. What do you want me to say?”
  • Dave: “To sit there with that level of blinking and not think something is wrong.” [11:40]

3. College Football Playoff Bracket Drama

• [14:31] – [16:01] The guys delve into the controversial CFP scenario, especially how Big 12 may get boxed out in favor of lower-profile teams:
  • Dan explains how Boise State (if they win out) could get a playoff bye due to being a top-ranked conference champion.
    • Rico: “So it could be Army.”
    • Dan: "Yeah. So. And there's chaos. The Big 12 just eats itself alive."
  • The difficulties of bracket rules and 'super conferences' are lamented.

4. Heisman Long Shot Drama & Hedging Strategies

• [16:46] – [18:57] A debate around Big Cat’s massive futures bet on Travis Hunter (Colorado) to win the Heisman (at 40-1; would pay $200k).
  • Should he hedge?
    • Dave: “You're down. Like, you can't afford a hedge.”
    • Rico: “I think you should just ride it.”
    • Dan: “Okay… I'll just ride it. Well, it's not a great pick unless I win that.”
    • Dave: “It is a great pick even if you don't win it.” [19:04]

5. NFL Futures and Super Bowl Speculation

• [19:13] – [20:58] The hosts size up futures markets, with Dave musing about a seven-figure Lions bet at +350, citing a belief “they've separated, I think they're way better than everybody else.”
• The NFC versus AFC depth/betting strategy is discussed.

6. Two-Point Conversion Analytics

• [21:09] – [24:29] Rico brings up a two-point conversion scenario from the recent Bills game, launching analytics talk about when to go for two versus an extra point.
  • Dan: “You're two point savant.”
  • Rico: “I've tried it.” [23:32]
  • Dave and Dan ultimately prefer more conservative approaches but appreciate Rico’s scheme-brain.

7. Deep Dive: This Week’s Betting Slate

• Transition point—finally into the picks and breakdowns.

Game-by-Game Breakdown with Notable Quotes

1. Ole Miss @ Florida (+10.5, O/U 55.5)

• [25:20]
• Dan: “I'm going to take Florida plus ten and a half simply because I think we spend all this time every single year debating all these records... it wouldn't shock me if Florida wins this game.” [25:57]
• Dave: “Florida's playing well… I think this could be an Ole Miss blowout that look back, and I'm like, what? And the fact you took Florida like I did makes me a little nervous.” [26:46]
• Rico: “I'm gonna take the under. I think defense travels. I like Ole Miss's defense. It's the best unit on the field.” [27:40]

2. BYU @ Arizona State (-3, O/U 48.5)

• [28:12]
• unanimous picks for Arizona State
• Rico: “I think they're dialed in. Give me Arizona State.” [28:39]

3. Kansas vs Colorado (+2.5, O/U 59.5)

• [28:45]
• Dave: “I hate the game. I want to root for Dion. So I'll take Colorado. It's not a real live bullet game for me.”
• Dan: “You guys talk me out of the hedge. I'm gonna just roll with Colorado.”

4. Notre Dame vs Army (Yankee Stadium, -14.5, O/U 44.5)

• [31:09]
• Dave: “I have Notre Dame written down in. Something's changing in my mind that. And maybe it's because they beat Navy by a thousand, but maybe Army's better than Navy... I'm gonna take Army. I think they're gonna muck this game up." [31:09]
• Rico: “I'll take the Irish based on what they did to Navy.”
• Dan: After some flip-flopping and confusion, ultimately picks Notre Dame as mortal lock.

5. Indiana (+13.5) at Ohio State (O/U 51.5)

• [31:51]
• Dan & Rico both on Indiana +13.5: "They're having an incredible year. Like, when did we stop rooting for underdogs in this country?” [32:17]
• Dave: “I think Ohio State is going to kill him. So I'm taking Ohio State. If I'm wrong and Indiana's can match up, I'm going to start thinking Michigan can beat Ohio State because Michigan just bullied Indiana.” [32:52]

Notable Banter & Moments

- Rico’s "Blink Mission" & Contact Lens Chaos

• The “blinking” segment, which dominates the first 15 minutes, becomes a hallmark of the episode—multiple jokes at Rico’s expense, ongoing interruptions, and memes (“Morse code,” “Blinko”).
  • Dave: "You're blinking like a fucking psychopath." [06:47]
  • Dan: “Can we edit this in real? Like, what you were doing clearly distracted me to the point I was in a...bad beat story. And your blinking, like, paralyzed me. It was like I was being waterboarded with your eye, with your blinking.” [10:38]

- Social Media/Indiana Football Propaganda Plot

• [34:15] Segment about Indiana fans mobilizing to get Dan Dakich into their SEC Playoff narrative, lampooned with talk of “woke nonsense” and “stop the steal.”

- Gambling State Logistics for Final Four

• [38:11] – [41:49] The real-life issue of Texas being a non-gambling state makes their Final Four plans convoluted and frustrating:
  • Dan: "It's hard to do a show and talk about betting the game when we can't bet the game." [40:31]

Cards & Picks Recap

[43:20] Onward

• Rapid-fire run through of picks/cards for the week. Highlights:
  • Rico: “SMU -10, BC-UNC over 56.5, Wake +25.5, Texas Tech -3.5, Arizona State -3, Louisville-Pitt over 57.5...”
  • Dave: “Syracuse-Connecticut over 54.5, Virginia +9.5, BC -3, Florida +10.5 and the under, Ohio State -13.5, Colorado -2.5...”
  • Dan: “Minnesota +11.5, San Jose State +7.5, Washington State-Oregon State over 56... Notre Dame is my (mortal lock) pick...”
  • Note: Dan accidentally gives Army, corrects to Notre Dame as his mortal lock. [46:01]

Standout Quotes

• Dave: “To sit there with that level of blinking and not think something is wrong.” [11:40]
• Dan: “You're two point savant.” [23:32]
• Dave (on the Lions future): “I think they've separated, I think they're way better than everybody else. My only issue...injuries for rest of the way, but I think they've separated.” [19:16]
• Rico: “It's a bad blinking issue…I got bad blink. I'm low on contacts.” [03:55]
• Dan: “I'm gonna just roll with Colorado. No hedge.” [29:42]
• Dave (about the San Jose St. bad beat): “I was being waterboarded with your eye, with your blinking.” [10:38]

Timestamps for Important Segments

• San Jose State bad beat therapy: [02:12] – [05:20]
• Rico’s contacts interrogation: [04:46] – [13:39]
• CFP bracket confusion: [14:31] – [16:01]
• Heisman hedge debate: [16:46] – [18:57]
• NFL futures/Lions talk: [19:13] – [20:58]
• Two-point analytics/strategy: [21:09] – [24:29]
• Start of picks/games segment: [25:20]
• Indiana CFP propaganda bit: [34:15]
• Final Four logistics/gambling states: [38:11]
• Picks/cards rundown: [43:20] onward

Tone & Language

• The episode perfectly blends gambling misery, bravado, and camaraderie. There’s biting humor, endless ribbing (often at Rico’s expense), and genuine insight into both football and the life of a degenerate bettor.

Conclusion

This week’s Barstool Pick Em is a quintessential episode full of unfiltered gambling chatter, wild tangents about personal hygiene, and passionate arguments about both football analytics and the actual structure of the game’s postseason. The hosts' outlandish confidence in their picks paired with genuine self-awareness of their “losing picks with extreme confidence” keeps the episode both insightful for football fans and extremely entertaining for regular listeners.