Astera Labs: It’s Better to Be Lucky Than Good 8-26-25 - Becker Business

Summary3 min read

Podcast Episode Summary

Podcast: Becker Business
Host: Scott Becker
Episode Title: Astera Labs: It’s Better to Be Lucky Than Good
Date: August 26, 2025

Overview

In this episode, Scott Becker dives into the theme of luck versus skill in investing, drawing from his own experience with Astera Labs. Becker candidly discusses how, despite his personal investing principles, he became a successful investor in Astera Labs by circumstance rather than intention. The episode is a reflection on the unpredictability of investment returns, the importance of trust in fund managers, and the humility required to accept a little bit of luck.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Role of Conviction in Investing

Becker starts by affirming his belief in the importance of having conviction in what you invest in.
- “I’m a big believer [in] having conviction about what you invest in.” [00:07]
Admits, however, that one does not always follow their own advice.

2. How Scott Becker Ended Up Investing in Astera Labs

Shares the story of accidentally becoming a shareholder in Astera Labs due to his investment in a Skybridge “Surf” fund.
- “I ended up owning part of Astera Labs, which is one of my best performing stocks this year. I think it’s up 35, 38% year to date, and since it went public, it’s up a ton.” [00:25]
Notes that the distribution of Astera Labs shares from the fund was unexpected.
Admits to knowing little about Astera Labs, aside from it being a chip company.

3. Trust in Fund Managers

Becker invested in the Skybridge fund primarily due to his deep trust in John Cevolos, Skybridge’s senior research person:
- “I trust his judgment like a brother...his name for a special shout out is John Cevolos. Brilliant, brilliant person.” [01:00]
Emphasizes that trusting the right people can sometimes outweigh personal knowledge about individual investments.

4. Luck Versus Skill: The Astera Labs Example

Despite not knowing much about Astera Labs, it became one of his best performers, alongside Palantir.
- “Other than Palantir, I think it’s been my best performing stock over the last 52 weeks. But again, it goes to the concept of it is better to be lucky than good...” [01:18]
Admits he's holding the shares out of “FOMO” (fear of missing out on future gains).

5. Humility in Investing

Becker closes with an acknowledgement of the sometimes random, serendipitous aspects of investing.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

On accidental investments:
“Of course, it violates all my concepts on investing other than invested in Skybridge because I knew the senior research person in charge of investing there and I trust his judgment like a brother.” [00:55]
On being “lucky” in the market:
“It goes to the concept of it is better to be lucky than good because again, I still know so little about it.” [01:25]
On holding for the long term:
“I’m holding it because I’ll feel foolish if it goes up greatly and I didn’t hold on to it for the long run.” [01:33]
Shout-outs:
Special mentions to John Cevolos, Anthony Scaramucci, and Brett Messing of Skybridge. [01:41]

Timestamps of Key Segments

00:00 - 00:35 — Opening and theme: Conviction versus luck in investing
00:35 - 01:05 — How Astera Labs landed in Becker’s portfolio
01:05 - 01:30 — Trust in John Cevolos and the Skybridge connection
01:30 - 01:42 — Reflection: Luck vs. skill and holding for fear of missing out
01:42 - End — Closing thanks and shout-outs

Episode Takeaways

Even seasoned investors sometimes succeed by luck, not just skill or research.
Trusting capable fund managers can lead to unexpected and successful investments.
There’s no shame in admitting you got lucky—and sometimes, that’s exactly what investing is about.
It's common for investors to hold onto surprise winners out of fear that they’ll miss future gains.

This episode captures Scott Becker’s candid and self-deprecating take on investment success, emphasizing that humility and trust can be as important as analytical rigor.

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[00:00]
A
This is Scott Becker with the Becker Business Podcast and the Becker Private Equity Podcast. Today's discussion is Astera Labs. It's better to be lucky than good. So. So here's the issue. I'm a big believer having conviction about what you invest in. And then, of course, I don't always follow my own advice and end up in certain stocks by chance or for other reasons that were sort of unintended or for different reasons. I ended up owning part of Astera Labs, which is one of my best performing stocks this year. I think it's up 35, 38% year to date, and since it went public, it's up a ton. I ended up owning it because I invested in a. In a. In a fund, a Skybridge fund, one of their surf funds, they call it. And that fund ended up distributing at some point shares in Astero Labs to me. Ended up owning the Astero Lab shares. I, of course, had no idea what Astero Labs is or was. I just. I really. I know it's a chip company, but I don't really know that much about it at all. So here's the deal. Of course, it violates all my concepts on investing other than invested in Skybridge because I knew the senior research person in charge of investing there and I trust his judgment like a brother. So I ended up in Skybridge for the right reasons. I trust him greatly. I think he's brilliant. His name for a special shout out is John Cevolos. Brilliant, brilliant person. So I end up owning part of Estera Labs and Astero Labs other than Palantir. I think it's been my best performing stock over the last 52 weeks. But again, it goes to the concept of it is better to be lucky than good because again, I still know so little about it. But I'm holding it because I'll feel foolish if it goes up greatly and I didn't hold on to it for. For the long run. Thank you for listening to the Becker business podcast, the Becker Private Equity Podcast. A special shout out to Skybridge. John Savolas as well as Anthony Scaramucci and Brett Messing today. Thank you very much. God bless you all. Thank you.