EV Credits Are Ending: What’s Happening with Tesla, Rivian, and Lucid Motors 9-30-25 - Becker Business

Summary4 min read

Overview of the Episode

Theme:
Scott Becker discusses the impending end of the $7,500 federal EV (Electric Vehicle) tax credit and analyzes its impact on the electric vehicle market, focusing on Tesla, Rivian, and Lucid Motors. He explores current sales trends, the potential consequences for consumer pricing, and shares commentary on each company's 2025 performance and market sentiment.

Key Discussion Points and Insights

The End of the $7,500 EV Tax Credit

The federal tax credit for purchasing electric vehicles is ending, removing a significant government-subsidized incentive for buyers.
Economic impact: Becker draws a parallel with housing credits—suggesting that credits can artificially raise prices by the amount of the subsidy, as consumers are willing to pay more when they know they’ll get it back via a credit.
It’s uncertain whether ending the credit will lead manufacturers to lower prices, as their products are no longer subsidized at the point of purchase.
- Quote:
"The 7,500 EV credit that you got for buying an EV is ending... This EV credit, of course, goosed EV sales. We don't know if at the end of the day this just means that they're going to bring the price down because the price was getting subsidized by the US Government."
— Scott Becker (00:20)
Becker points out the direct relationship between tax credits and consumer pricing, reflecting on typical business adjustments to such policy changes.
- Quote:
"Just like a credit, I'm buying a house. You could then raise the price by 7,500 and people would still buy it because you get the credit of 7,500."
— Scott Becker (00:45)

Market Review: Tesla, Rivian, and Lucid Motors

Tesla

Performance: Up 9% year to date.
Becker emphasizes Tesla's dual nature as an EV company and a wider tech company (including ventures such as robo-taxis and robotics).
- Quote:
"Tesla is now up 9% year to date. And again, many EV companies are more than EV companies—they are US technology companies that are using technology for other things like robo-taxis and robotics."
— Scott Becker (01:05)

Rivian

Performance: Up 17% year to date.
Positive feedback from owners on the quality of Rivian vehicles, coupled with persistent charging challenges noted by users.
Market perception remains generally favorable despite operational hurdles.
- Quote:
"All you hear from colleagues that own Rivians is how nice they are and how challenging they are to make sure they're constantly charged. But that's Rivian...Rivian overall doing well and up 17% year to date."
— Scott Becker (01:22)

Lucid Motors

Performance: Down 20% year to date.
Lucid is still a niche player, with low production numbers but high vehicle aesthetics.
Key financial note: Lucid remains backed by Saudi investors, mitigating immediate financial concerns despite performance struggles.
- Quote:
"Lucid Motors, it's still producing a very, very small amount of EVs. They're very pretty cars...Lucid is down 20% year to date. Really having a hard time doing it. But they're backed by the Saudis, so. So don't worry about them too much financially."
— Scott Becker (01:40)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

[00:20] “The 7,500 EV credit that you got for buying an EV is ending... This EV credit, of course, goosed EV sales.”
[00:45] “Just like a credit, I'm buying a house. You could then raise the price by 7,500 and people would still buy it because you get the credit of 7,500.”
[01:05] “Tesla is now up 9% year to date... many EV companies are more than EV companies—they are US technology companies.”
[01:22] “All you hear from colleagues that own Rivians is how nice they are and how challenging they are to make sure they're constantly charged.”
[01:40] “Lucid is down 20% year to date... But they're backed by the Saudis, so... don't worry about them too much financially.”

Timestamps for Important Segments

00:00 – 00:45: Introduction to the EV credit phaseout and speculation on pricing impacts.
01:05 – 01:22: Individual company performance overview (Tesla, Rivian, Lucid Motors).
01:22 – 01:40: User/owner feedback and market sentiment about Rivian and Lucid.
01:40 – 02:10: Financial stability of Lucid and brief concluding remarks.

Tone and Style

Scott Becker’s delivery blends business news brevity with relatable analogies and a conversational, slightly lighthearted tone (“I stop it sometimes when I'm envying people that have luxury vehicles”).
He moves quickly through key facts while offering practical commentary for listeners interested in the business, investment, and technology implications of EV market shifts.

Summary

In this concise yet insightful episode, Scott Becker outlines the significant policy shift as EV tax credits end, prompting questions about future price adjustments and consumer demand. He contextualizes the state of three major EV players: Tesla (solid but not spectacular growth), Rivian (enthusiastic user feedback but logistical issues, strong market year), and Lucid (luxury, visual appeal, financial backing amid slow growth). The episode offers listeners a snapshot of EV market dynamics at a pivotal moment, highlighting how policy, technology, and market sentiment intersect in the evolving automotive landscape.

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Transcript1 lines

[00:00]
A
This is Scott Becker with the Becker Business Podcast. In the Becker Private Equity Podcast, we cover investing, technology, startups, venture private equity, and a lot more. Thank you for listening. Today's discussion is EV credits are ending. What's happening with Tesla, Rivian and Lucid motors? So the 7,500ev credit that you got for buying an EV is ending. And again, this EV credit, the electric vehicle credits, of course, goosed EV sales. We don't know if at the end of the day this just means that they're going to bring the price down because the price was getting subsidized by the US Government. I'm not sure how play out exactly, but what happens when the EV credits are 7,500? Just like a credit, I'm buying a house. You could then raise the price by 7,500 and people would still buy it because you get the credit of the 7,500. So I'm not sure what will actually happen with pricing on EVs as this expires. But let's use this as an excuse to look at the three big EV companies. First, Tesla is now up 9% year to date. And again, many EV companies are more than EV companies or US technology companies that are using technology for other things like robo taxis and robotics and so forth. Tesla's up 9% year to date. Rivian is up 17 year to date. All you hear from colleagues that own Rivians is how nice they are and how challenging they are to, to, to make sure they're constantly charged. But that's Rivian and Rivian overall doing well and up 17% year to date. Lucid Motors, it's still producing a very, very small amount of EVs. They're very pretty cars. I see them at a luxury dealership. I stop it sometimes when I'm envying people that have luxury vehicles. But Lucid is down 20% year to date. Really having a hard time doing it. But they're backed by the Saudis, so. So don't worry about them too much financially. They're going to be okay. In any event, thank you for listening to the Becker Business Podcast. The Becker Private Equity Podcast. That's a story with EVs so far this year. Thank you so much for listening.