Episode Overview
Title: How Do You Know When a Stock is Going to Crash?
Host: Scott Becker
Date: November 13, 2025
Podcast: Becker Business
In this concise episode, Scott Becker tackles the perennial investor’s question: “How do you know when a stock is going to crash?” Drawing from his own real-world investment experiences, Scott delivers a candid, self-deprecating perspective on personal stock picking versus index fund investing.
Key Discussion Points and Insights
Personal Anecdotes and Self-Reflection
- Scott opens by acknowledging the difficulty of predicting when a stock will crash, using his own investment history as a case study.
- He shares two specific stocks he owns—Circle Internet and Astero Labs—which both suffered significant drops recently:
- "One dropped 11 yesterday. One dropped 6% yesterday." (Scott Becker, 00:19)
- Scott humorously admits to avoiding checking their prices when they're clearly down:
- "I don't know what you're doing today because, like going on the scale when things are bad, I don't want to look." (Scott Becker, 00:28)
- These experiences lead him to his "number one answer" for knowing when a stock is about to get crushed:
- "If I've invested in it, it's going in the wrong direction." (Scott Becker, 00:40)
- This tongue-in-cheek remark highlights the unpredictability of individual stock performance and pokes fun at his own luck.
Investment Philosophy
- Scott reveals that episodes like these reinforce his broader investing strategy:
- "This is, of course, why I largely stick to index funds." (Scott Becker, 00:46)
- He implies index funds offer a safer, more stable alternative to stock-picking, especially for those not confident in timing the market.
Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments
- Humor in Self-Deprecation:
- "My number one answer is Scott Becker has invested in it. If I've invested in it, it's going in the wrong direction." (Scott Becker, 00:39)
- Honest Acknowledgment:
- "I don't know what you're doing today because, like going on the scale when things are bad, I don't want to look." (Scott Becker, 00:28)
- Investment Strategy Takeaway:
- "This is, of course, why I largely stick to index funds. It is what it is." (Scott Becker, 00:46)
Timestamps for Important Segments
- 00:00-00:11 — Introduction and today's topic: predicting stock crashes
- 00:12-00:22 — Two personal stock examples: Circle Internet and Astero Labs' recent downward movement
- 00:23-00:30 — Avoiding painful updates and the discomfort of losses
- 00:31-00:47 — Main takeaway: Scott's self-aware answer, humor, and endorsement of index fund investing
Tone and Style
- Scott's tone is lighthearted and self-deprecating, aiming to make listeners smile while imparting investment wisdom rooted in personal experience.
- The message encourages humility in stock picking and highlights the value of sticking to less risky, diversified approaches for most investors.
This episode offers a relatable look at the unpredictable nature of the stock market, underscoring the importance of realistic expectations and prudent strategy in investing.
