Intel – Not So Fast 1-23-26 - Becker Business

Becker Business Podcast: “Intel – Not So Fast” (1-23-26)

Host: Scott Becker
Release Date: January 23, 2026

Overview

This episode centers on the sudden shift in Intel’s stock trajectory following unexpectedly low first-quarter revenue and earnings guidance. Host Scott Becker analyzes how quickly market sentiment can turn, even for companies experiencing a dramatic turnaround, and reflects on the unpredictability of business news, using Intel as the week’s prime example.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Intel’s Recent Surge and Turnaround

Over the past year, Intel has significantly rebounded, with its stock price rising dramatically and garnering investments from Nvidia, government sources, and others.
Just a day before this recording, Intel’s stock was up 47% year to date, reflecting renewed investor confidence.

2. Disappointing Earnings Guidance and the Market’s Response

Intel released its outlook for Q1, projecting revenues at $12.2 billion—below Wall Street’s high-end expectation of $12.6 billion.
- “Today they released their outlook for the first quarter and expects revenues to be lower than Wall Street expected, but still massive at 12.2 billion.” (Scott Becker, 01:18)
The company also expects earnings per share to fall short of expectations.
On this news, Intel’s stock dropped sharply, down about 14% at the time of recording (as much as 15% intraday).

3. Context and Perspective on Intel’s Journey

Despite the short-term dip, Becker notes Intel’s “much healthier track” compared to a couple of years ago and sees reasons for ongoing optimism.
- “At the end of the day, the company is on a much healthier track than it was a couple years ago. I think there’s lots of reasons to still be optimistic about it.” (Scott Becker, 02:05)
The episode emphasizes the rapid pace of change: Intel’s gains abruptly shrinking from +47% YTD to +25% after the announcement.

4. Broader Market Impact and Personal Commentary

Scott notes he’s not a direct investor in Intel but holds Astera Labs, a company closely related to Intel’s space, which also fell on Intel’s news.
- “We are not direct investors in Intel, but one of the stocks we are an investor in is Astera Labs. And of course Astera follows Intel in similar businesses. So it's also down today. So that's depressing.” (Scott Becker, 02:16)
He underscores the “fascinating” speed of market sentiment shifts, reiterating how “just yesterday” Intel was riding high.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

On Intel’s rollercoaster:
- “What a difference a day makes.” (Scott Becker, 00:40)
On market volatility:
- “The fascinating thing about this is how quickly the picture changes.” (Scott Becker, 02:23)
On optimism for Intel:
- “The company is on a much healthier track than it was a couple years ago... I think there's lots of reasons to still be optimistic about it.” (Scott Becker, 02:05)

Timestamps for Important Segments

00:30 – 00:40: Introduction to episode, market update focus
00:41 – 01:20: Intel’s stock performance recap and turnaround story
01:21 – 02:10: Q1 revenue outlook, Wall Street expectations, and implications
02:11 – 02:45: Broader impact, Becker’s investment disclosure, reflections on volatility

Tone & Style

Scott Becker’s tone is insightful, candid, and pragmatic. He strikes a balance between optimism for Intel’s underlying fundamentals and realism about the market’s volatility, peppering in personal reflections and a touch of humor.

Summary

In this concise and timely episode, Scott Becker uses the case of Intel’s surprising earnings outlook to illustrate how fickle market sentiments can be, even during periods of apparent corporate revival. He reminds listeners that, despite day-to-day swings, Intel is still fundamentally stronger than in the recent past, and that business news often shifts faster than most expect.

Transcript

A (0:01)

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B (0:30)

This is Scott Becker with the Becker Business and the Becker Private Equity podcast. We try and bring you one to two market and business episodes a day, plus typically an interview with a brilliant business leader. Today's discussion is Intel Tanks. What a difference a day makes. So, so here's the deal where the last year intel has been on fire and we've widely covered this as of yesterday, in fact it was up about 15%. This week, up 47%. Year to date it's taken in investments from Nvidia, from the government and it's really done this massive turnaround over the last year or so and risen dramatically from the ashes. And today's story is not so fast. And so here's the deal today. Today they released their outlook for the first quarter and expects revenues to be lower than Wall street expected, but still massive at 12.2 billion. Also expects earnings per share to be lower than expected. And so on this news today, the stock is essentially down as we, as we record this now, about 14%. It was down as much as 15%. Now remember just as of yesterday, the Stock was up 47% year to date. Now that number is back to 25% year to date. And I guess the issue is at the end of the day, Intel's really moving in the right direction, missing the earnings estimate or the revenue estimates. The Wall street high end was 12.6 billion for the quarter. Their outlook goes to 12.2 billion. I guess the real question is will they hit that or not. But, but at the end of the day the company is on a much healthier track than it was a couple years ago. I think there's lots of reasons to still be optimistic about it. We are not direct investors in intel, but one of the stocks we are an investor in is Astera Labs. And of course Astera fouls Intel in similar businesses. So it's also down today. So that's depressing. But, but I think the fasting about this is how quickly the picture changes. Literally just yesterday we recorded and we knew that earnings were coming out late Thursday, so we knew there was some, you know, uncertainty how much intel has been on fire. And today it's Intel. Not so fast. Thank you for listening to the Becker Private Equity the Becker Business Podcast. Thank you so much for joining us.

A (2:55)

If you're the purchasing manager at a manufacturing plant, you know having a trusted partner makes all the difference. That's why, hands down, you count on Grainger for auto reordering with on time restocks, your team will have the cut resistant gloves they need at the start of their shift and you can end your day knowing they've got safety well in hand. Call 1-800-GRAINGER clickgrainger.com or just stop by Grainger for the ones who get it done.