Summary3 min read

Becker Business – “Is the Era of Private Equity Over?” (Feb 26, 2026)

Episode Overview

In this solo episode, host Scott Becker dives into the current state of private equity, raising the provocative question: Is the era of private equity over? Using the recent struggles of major PE firms as a lens, Becker unpacks the forces disrupting the industry, including challenging exit markets, oversaturation of funds, and shifting economic tides.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Private Equity’s Rocky Performance

Major PE firms are faltering: Blackstone and KKR are both down 25% year-to-date, while Apollo is down over 21%.

“Blackstone and KKR reached down 25% year to date. Apollo’s down more than 21%.” (Scott Becker, 00:19)
The primary issue isn’t the daily operation, but the difficulty of executing profitable exits.

2. Exit Challenges and Economic Realities

PE funds invested heavily over the past five to seven years but are struggling to convert those holdings to cash due to high interest rates and a congested exit landscape.
Management fees keep funds afloat, but real returns rely on exits:

“The management fee might keep the bills, keep the lights on, keep it going, but the real money comes from doing exits, and the exit market has been sparse and challenging.” (Scott Becker, 00:47–01:00)
Alternative exit strategies are being explored, including:
- IPOs (initial public offerings)
- Sales to “continuation vehicles”
- Recapitalizations (recaps)
However, the market lacks a “rising tide” that could boost valuations and facilitate easier exits.

3. Industry Saturation—Too Many Funds, Not Enough Deals

The number of private equity funds has ballooned dramatically:

“Now you’ve got a huge number of funds, so many funds, 17,000 private equity funds chasing a certain amount of private deals.” (Scott Becker, 01:32)
In contrast to previous years (fewer funds, more deals), today’s market offers fewer “easy wins” for investment teams.

4. Strategic Observations and Warren Buffett Reference

Becker references Warren Buffett’s investment wisdom on the necessity of being right at the key moments, not necessarily all the time, and exercising discipline otherwise.

“Warren Buffett used to say, you don’t got to be right all the time, you got to be right once in a while and be disciplined…the rest of the time and really double down when you’re right.” (Scott Becker, 01:43)
For big PE funds, those rare right opportunities are becoming scarce, especially given their mandate to invest large sums.

5. Current Outlook and Prognosis

Becker is candid about his uncertainty regarding the future of private equity.

“Hard to see what the prognosis is for private equity right now. The big fund’s getting crushed. We’ll see if that gets better.” (Scott Becker, 02:17)
He finds the unfolding scenario “fascinating to watch” and remains watchful for signals of recovery.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

On the existential question:

“Is the era of private equity over?” (Scott Becker, Title/Intro at 00:12)
On exit market struggles:

“People are trying different ways to manufacture exits. There’s been IPOs, some of them, there’s been efforts at selling to continuation vehicle, there’s been recaps. But at some point you need a rising tide to lift all boats and we’re not seeing that in terms of valuations or otherwise.” (Scott Becker, 00:57–01:13)
On oversaturation:

“It just doesn’t seem like there’s enough easy deals to hit to make investments in to win on a big scale.” (Scott Becker, 01:36)

Timestamps of Important Segments

[00:12] – Episode begins; Scott introduces the main topic and current PE performance
[00:45] – Deep dive into PE’s dependence on exits, not management fees
[00:57] – Discussion of alternative exit strategies (IPOs, continuation vehicles, recaps)
[01:32] – Saturation of funds vs. scarcity of deals
[01:43] – Warren Buffett philosophy and big fund investment dilemmas
[02:17] – Scott’s closing remarks on uncertainty and fascination with the evolving PE landscape

Tone & Style

Scott Becker delivers a concise, analytical, and slightly conversational overview of private equity’s current woes—balancing data points with industry observations and a dash of investor wisdom.

Summary:
This episode offers an insightful, quick-hitting take on the turbulence facing private equity in 2026, highlighting pressures from saturated fundraising, tough exit conditions, and the search for returns. Scott Becker leaves listeners reflecting on whether private equity’s golden age may indeed be ending, or if, like the industry itself, it’s simply waiting for its next “rising tide.”

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Transcript3 lines

[00:00]
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A T shirt and jeans, Mac and cheese. Some things in life are an obvious match, like RIAS and Schwab Advisor Services, the number one choice for independent advisors. The difference is so obvious, it's Schwabvious.
[00:13]
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Learn why@schwabius.com this is Scott Becker with the Becker Business. The Becker Private Equity Podcast Today's discussion is the era of private equity over. So here's the discussion. The big private equity fund companies, Blackstone, kkr, Apollo are all having a horrible time. Currently, Blackstone and KKR reached down 25% year to date. Apollo's down more than 21%. And the big issue is private equity funds did a ton of investing the last five to seven years. And the reality is partly because interest rates are high, probably because there's so many different companies out there trying to exit, they're having a very hard time exiting a lot of these investments and turning these into real profitability. So the private equity fund companies and the funds are doing okay with their management fees, but if you can't do exits, things are tough. That's where people really make their money. It's sort of the management fee might keep the bills, keep the lights on, keep it going, but the real money comes from doing exits in the exit market has been sparse and challenging. People are trying different ways to manufacture exits. There's been IPOs, some of them, there's been efforts at sort of selling to continuation vehicle, there's been recaps. But at some point you need a rising tide to lift all boats and we're not seeing that in terms of valuations or otherwise. And so you've got lots of challenges going on. I find the whole thing to be quite fascinating to watch. We'll see if it ever recovers. I don't know. What's happened is you used to have a small number of funds chasing a large number of private deals. Now you've got a huge number of funds, so many funds, 17,000 private equity funds chasing a certain amount of private deals. And it just doesn't seem like there's enough easy deals to hit to make investments in to win on a big scale. It's almost like Warren Buffett used to say, you don't got to be right all the time, you got to be right once in a while and be disciplined the rest of the time and really double down when you're right. Now those opportunities seem harder and harder for big PE funds to find and they've got big dollars behind them, so they got to find big opportunities too. So really challenging hard to see what the prognosis is for private equity right now. The big fund's getting crushed. We'll see if that gets better. Thank you for listening to the Becker Business and the Becker Private Equity Podcast. Thank you very, very much.
[02:39]
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