Lucid Group & Target Remain in the Doldrums 9-16-25 - Becker Business

Summary3 min read

Episode Overview

Episode Title: Lucid Group & Target Remain in the Doldrums
Podcast: Becker Business
Host: Scott Becker
Date: September 16, 2025

Scott Becker provides a brisk analysis of the current state of two notable publicly traded companies—Target Corporation and Lucid Group—emphasizing their steep declines this year. He contrasts their struggles with the more positive performance of peers in retail and electric vehicles (EVs), including Amazon, Walmart, Tesla, and Rivian. The discussion extends to broader themes such as e-commerce competition, product differentiation, and the ongoing challenges in the EV market.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

Target’s Downward Spiral

[00:33–01:10]

Historical context: Once considered an "upper echelon" of department stores, judged superior to Macy's.
Recent performance: Down 33% year-to-date, after many years of robust growth.
Recent initiatives: Multiple new strategies attempted, none effective.
Current challenge: Needs to focus on “great merchandising and things that people want to go to their stores for.”
Competitive landscape: Losing significant ground to major e-commerce players, notably Amazon and Walmart.

"They keep on trying new initiatives. None of them seem to be getting traction. They've got to get back to just great merchandising and things that people want to go to their stores for. They're also getting their butts kicked in the e-commerce world by Amazon and Walmart and others."
— Scott Becker [00:46]

Lucid Group’s Struggles

[01:11–01:55]

Position in the EV market: The smallest among major EV startups (Tesla, Rivian, Lucid).
Sales volume: Annual production around 20,000 cars—too low to sustain a viable car company at scale.
Product quality: Produces “beautiful cars,” but financial performance is lagging.
Stock performance: Down ~33% year-to-date, mirroring Target’s decline.
Industry headwinds: Face the risk of lost momentum due to federal tax credits ending.

"You can't really build a car company around 20,000 cars a year. They make beautiful cars, or at least what looks like beautiful cars. They're down about 33% year to date as well."
— Scott Becker [01:20]

EV Industry at Large: Mixed Fortunes

[01:56–02:15]

Tesla: Rebounded and is "back in the black" for the year, reflecting a remarkable turnaround.
Rivian: Up several percent year-to-date, performing better than Lucid.
Diversification: Both Tesla and Rivian benefit from business lines beyond just EVs.
General Concern: EV-makers universally wary about the ending of federal tax credits.

"Tesla, as we reported on a separate podcast, is back in the black this year and starting to rock and roll. Amazing, the transformation going on there again. Shocking actually."
— Scott Becker [02:00]
Broader industry note: Tesla remains the “huge, huge” leader in EV production but is branching into other businesses.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

On Target’s challenges:
"They keep on trying new initiatives. None of them seem to be getting traction. They've got to get back to just great merchandising..."
— Scott Becker [00:46]
On Lucid’s limitations:
"You can't really build a car company around 20,000 cars a year. They make beautiful cars, or at least what looks like beautiful cars..."
— Scott Becker [01:20]
On Tesla’s revival:
"Tesla, as we reported on a separate podcast, is back in the black this year and starting to rock and roll. Amazing, the transformation going on there again. Shocking actually."
— Scott Becker [02:00]

Important Timestamps

00:33 — Start of discussion; Target’s decline begins
00:46 — Commentary on Target’s new initiatives and e-commerce competition
01:11 — Introduction of Lucid Group’s situation
01:20 — Observation on Lucid’s limited production and financial troubles
01:56 — Comparison with Tesla and Rivian’s performance
02:00 — Highlight of Tesla’s surprising turnaround

Summary

In under three minutes, Scott Becker sharply addresses the marked downturns faced by both Target and Lucid Group in 2025, assigning their struggles to strategic missteps and intense competition. He juxtaposes these issues with the more resilient performances of Tesla and Rivian, underscoring the importance of diversification and scale in today’s retail and EV industries. Becker’s tone is direct, insightful, and pragmatic, making this a concise yet comprehensive snapshot for business listeners.

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Transcript2 lines

[00:02]
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[00:31]
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This is Scott Becker with the Becker Business Podcast, the Becker Private Equity Podcast, today's discussion and we cover technology, startups, PE and a lot more here. But today's discussion is Lucid Group and Target remain in the doldrums. So Target, which was so hot for so long over so many years, sort of that a little bit more upper echelon than Macy's was doing so well for so long this year it is really struggling. It's down 33% year to date, so that is going poorly. They keep on trying new initiatives. None of them seem to be getting traction. They've got to get back to just great merchandising and things that people want to go to their stores for. They're also getting their butts kicked in the e commerce world by Amazon and Walmart and others. So that's Target. The second stock, which I think this is really not that much of a surprise to anybody, is Lucid Group, the EV maker. It's the of the true EV makers, at least the ones we really follow, Tesla, Rivian and Lucid. It's by far the smallest and you can't really build a car company around 20,000 cars a year. They make beautiful cars, or at least what looks like beautiful cars. They're down about 33% year to date as well. Whereas Tesla, as we reported on a separate podcast, is back in the black this year and starting to rock and roll. Amazing, the transformation going on there again. Shocking actually. And finally, Rivian's also up several percent year to date. But generally the EV makers are concerned about the ending of federal tax credits and we'll see how this all plays out. But right now, Loose is getting crushed, targets getting crushed. Tesla and Rivian are holding their own, partly based on a diversification of businesses beyond just EVs, even though Tesla's still a huge, huge EV producer and maker. Thank you for listening to the Becker Business Podcast, the Becker Private Equity Podcast. We appreciate your listenership so much. Thank you very much for joining us.