Becker Business Podcast – "SpaceX Shoots for the Moon"

Host: Scott Becker
Date: December 11, 2025
Episode Theme: Speculation and analysis around a possible SpaceX IPO, its valuation context, and broader business insights.

Episode Overview

Scott Becker delivers a focused discussion on the business potential surrounding a rumored SpaceX initial public offering (IPO) in 2026, unpacking the staggering $1.5 trillion potential valuation, putting it in context with past major IPOs, and examining how these numbers make sense relative to SpaceX’s actual revenues and business trajectory. The episode also reflects on market mechanisms for high valuations and public offering strategies, while providing a dose of Scott's characteristic market pragmatism and encouragement for entrepreneurial insight.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. SpaceX's Rumored IPO (00:30–03:15)

• Main Theme:
  The phrase "shoots for the Moon" is a play on words; in reality, SpaceX is aiming for both Mars and an astronomical IPO.

• IPO Details:

  • SpaceX is rumored to be considering a 2026 IPO.
  • Target valuation: $1.5 trillion.
    • "If they could pull it off, now when a company goes public at a trillion five, they're not selling a trillion five worth of stock because that would just flood the market." (Scott Becker, 00:48)
  • Only ~5% of equity would likely be sold in the IPO, raising about $75 billion.
  • This structure is similar to Medline’s recent approach: only a small fraction of equity is floated to maintain a high valuation and limit dilution.

• Context Among Largest IPOs:

  • Only Saudi Aramco would rival or surpass such a valuation in IPO history.
  • SpaceX's current private valuation (from the latest funding round): about $800 billion.

2. Valuation Critique (03:15–03:55)

• Skepticism About the Numbers:
  • Critics argue the rumored $1.5 trillion valuation is "just incredibly out of line," given current revenues.
  • SpaceX’s reported or projected revenues:
    • Current: $15–$20 billion
    • Projected by 2026: Up to $24 billion
  • "That is just a small, small number compared to a trillion 5 valuation. So we'll ultimately see how this all plays out. But it's literally fascinating to watch." (Scott Becker, 03:38)

3. SpaceX's Public Offering Philosophy (03:58–04:10)

• Company Positioning:
  SpaceX has often indicated they don’t want to go public until Mars missions are routine.
  • "They've said many times very clearly they don't want to go public until they've hit it to Mars on a regular basis." (Scott Becker, 03:58)

4. Commentary on IPO Strategies

• How IPOs Set Valuations:
  Companies sell a small fraction to establish a public market price while keeping most equity private.
• Recent Example:
  Medline registering to go public at $55 billion, selling only a small percentage of stock.

5. Listener Engagement Offer (04:11–04:18)

• Memorable Moment:
  Scott offers a $50 Amazon gift card for the first listener to text him after listening, and increases to $75 with proof of preordering his book.
  • "If you're the first person to listen to this all the way through and text Scott Becker...we will send you a $50 gift certificate...we'll in fact make that $75 if on top of the $50, you buy our book, preorder our book at Amazon..." (Scott Becker, 04:11)

Notable Quotes

• On IPO mechanics and valuation:
  "What they really do is sell a small portion of stock, in this case rumored to be about 5% for about 75 billion. That would then lead to a valuation of a trillion five. And that way you sell [an] amount of stock that the market could absorb, but don't really truly flood the market with a trillion 5 in shares."
  — Scott Becker (01:02)

• On skepticism about valuation vs. revenue:
  "SpaceX has about 15 to 20 billion dollars in revenues...and that is just a small, small number compared to a trillion 5 valuation."
  — Scott Becker (03:38)

• On SpaceX's going-public strategy:
  "They've said many times very clearly they don't want to go public until they've hit it to Mars on a regular basis."
  — Scott Becker (03:58)

Timeline of Important Segments

• 00:30–01:30 – SpaceX IPO concept and mechanics
• 01:30–02:30 – Comparisons to other IPOs (Medline, Saudi Aramco), valuation specifics
• 02:30–03:15 – Market valuation context and examples
• 03:15–03:55 – Revenue-to-valuation skepticism and critics’ perspective
• 03:58–04:10 – SpaceX’s stated Mars-driven public policy
• 04:11–04:18 – Listener engagement and book promotion

Tone and Style

True to Scott Becker’s direct, market-savvy delivery, the episode mixes sharp business analysis with transparency about the speculation surrounding SpaceX, and finishes on a personal, entrepreneurial note. The tone is informative, slightly skeptical about “hype” valuations, and designed to draw entrepreneurs and business watchers into a critical, numbers-literate evaluation of major market events.

Summary Takeaway

Scott Becker’s “SpaceX Shoots for the Moon” episode offers a concise yet complete breakdown of why a possible 2026 SpaceX IPO is commanding so much attention—and skepticism—on Wall Street. Between head-turning numbers, a media-savvy strategy, and an undercurrent of both ambition and prudence from Elon Musk’s company, the episode guides listeners through what’s hype, what’s possible, and what remains to be seen in the ever-more-public race to Mars (and massive business valuations).