The Markets Point Down, PE Funds Are Tanking: 5 Stories We Are Following Today 3-9-26 - Becker Business

Summary4 min read

Becker Business Podcast Summary

Host: Scott Becker
Episode: The Markets Point Down, PE Funds Are Tanking: 5 Stories We Are Following Today 3-9-26
Date: March 9, 2026

Overview

In this episode, Scott Becker delivers a rapid-fire update on the current state of the financial markets, with a particular emphasis on market downturns and the significant struggles facing major private equity (PE) funds. Covering five key stories, Becker outlines recent market drops, the contributing macroeconomic and geopolitical factors, year-to-date figures for top indices and funds, and commentary on the predictions circulating in financial media.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Market Downturns Persist – But Not as Severe as Feared

Morning Movements: As of the recording, markets are down, but the immediate drop is less severe than prior days.
- "They fell more than 1% Friday. They were down more than 1% this morning. Now they're closer to about a half percent to three quarters of a percent down." (00:17)

2. Drivers Behind Market Decline

Key Factors:
- Escalation of the Iran war
- Oil prices surging
- Labor market uncertainty
- The Federal Reserve’s ambiguous policy direction
Main Concern: Whether the Fed can lower rates or will be forced to maintain current levels due to persistent inflation, especially from rising oil prices.
- “Uncertainty regarding the job market and a lack of clarity as to the direction of the Fed. Whether it'll be able to continue to bring rates down, whether inflation, like oil surges, oil prices surging are going to cause them to have to hold the line on rates.” (00:31)

3. Market Performance YTD: S&P and Nasdaq

Current Stats:
- S&P 500: Down approximately 3.5% year to date
- Nasdaq: Down about 4% year to date
Contextual Perspective: Despite the current dip, markets were up ~20% per year for the past three years, indicating this correction may have been overdue.
- “The last three years, the market has been up about 20% on average per year. So people might say we're well ready for a correction, but right now down about three and a half and 4% each.” (00:46)

4. Financial Media Outlooks: Motley Fool on Crash Predictions

Motley Fool Article:
- Headline suggests an epic crash could happen in 2026, but their analysis argues against it based on PE ratios and other metrics.
- “History suggests an epic stock market crash could happen in 2026. Here's why I disagree. And this is the story from the Motley Fool. That's not me disagreeing, that's them disagreeing but saying there's different PE ratios, different reasons why we could see a crash, but they don't see that coming.” (01:02)
Takeaway: Cautions against sensational alarmism while acknowledging ongoing volatility.

5. Private Equity Funds Are Struggling

Year-to-Date Performance:
- Blackstone & KKR: Down nearly 29% each
- Apollo: Down nearly 25%
Industry Challenges: Big PE funds are experiencing a “horrendous year,” facing difficulty with exits but still managing to collect management fees.
- “The huge private equity funds are getting crushed. Blackstone and KKR are down nearly 29% year to date. Each Apollo is down nearly 25% year to date. So again, the big private equity funds having a horrendous year, a very tough time getting exits, still collecting management fees, but really struggling.” (01:23)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

“The markets point down this morning...not as bad as they were.” — Scott Becker (00:11)
“Uncertainty regarding the job market and a lack of clarity as to the direction of the Fed.” — Scott Becker (00:31)
“The last three years, the market has been up about 20% on average per year. So people might say we're well ready for a correction...” — Scott Becker (00:46)
“Motley Fool...saying there's different PE ratios, different reasons why we could see a crash, but they don't see that coming.” — Scott Becker (01:02)
“The huge private equity funds are getting crushed...a horrendous year, a very tough time getting exits...but really struggling.” — Scott Becker (01:23)

Timestamps for Key Segments

Market movements this morning: 00:11–00:25
Factors impacting markets: 00:26–00:41
S&P/Nasdaq performance YTD & historical context: 00:42–00:59
Motley Fool crash prediction coverage: 01:00–01:15
Private equity funds’ struggles: 01:16–01:34

Summary

Scott Becker’s update offers a concise, data-driven overview of an anxious period for markets and private equity, blending current numbers with broader context and measured skepticism toward dramatic crash predictions. The tone is urgent yet analytical, aiming to inform listeners without sensationalizing the day’s market headlines.

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Transcript1 lines

[00:00]
A
This is Scott Becker with the Becker Business and the Becker Private Equity Podcast. Today's discussion is is is really as follows. The markets point down. The PE funds are tanking. Five stories we're following this morning. So, so, so here's where at first, the markets point down this morning that they're not as bad as they were. They fell more than 1% Friday. They were down more than 1% this morning. Now they're closer to about a half percent to three quarters of a percent down. So not as bad. Second, the markets are being driven by the Iran war, oil prices surging, uncertainty regarding the job market and a lack of clarity as to the direction of the Fed. Whether it'll be able to continue to bring rates down, whether inflation, like oil surges, oil prices surging are going to cause them to have to hold the line on rates. Third, the S&P is now down about approximately 3.5% year to date. The Nasdaq is now down about 4% year to date. Again, the last three years, the market has been up about 20% on average per year. So people might say we're well ready for a correction, but right now down about three and a half and 4% each, so, so we'll see where that goes. Fourth, the Motley fool has an article this morning. History suggests an epic stock market crash could happen in 2026. Here's why I disagree. And this is the story from the Motley Fool. That's not me disagreeing, that's them disagreeing but saying there's different PE ratios, different reasons why we could see a crash, but they don't see that coming. Finally, fifth, the huge private equity funds are getting crushed. Blackstone and KKR are down nearly 29% year to date. Each Apollo is down nearly 25% year to date. So again, the big private equity funds having a horrendous year, a very tough time getting exits, still collecting management fees, but really struggling. Again, the markets point down. The private equity funds are tanking. Five stories that we're following this morning. Thank you for listening to the Becker Business and the Becker Private Equity Podcast.