Becker Business Podcast

Host: Scott Becker
Episode: Will the Market Crash This Year?
Date: January 9, 2026

Overview

In this episode, Scott Becker addresses the pressing question: “Will the market crash in 2026?” Drawing on a recent Wall Street Journal article by Spencer Jacob and insights from market analysts, he explores probabilities of a crash, allocation strategies, and why attempting to time the market is fraught with risks. Becker distills the complex topic into five practical takeaways for investors and business leaders.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Likelihood of a Market Crash in 2026

• Main conclusion: A crash is unlikely this year, but not impossible.
• Analyst perspectives:
  • “The major market analyst that Spencer talked to said there's about a 30% chance of the market crashing this year.” (01:00)
  • Betting markets are more conservative, suggesting only an 8-10% chance of a serious crash (defined as a drop of 20-30% or more).

2. Probability Range: Analyst vs. Betting Markets

• Analyst estimate: 30% chance of crash.
• Betting markets: 8-10% chance.

  “The betting markets put that at a lower number, closer to an 8 to 10% chance of a serious market crash.” (01:18)

3. The Importance of a Comfortable Asset Allocation

• Allocate investments based on what you can tolerate emotionally and financially.

  “You have to have an allocation that you can live with. If you could live with it going down 30% knowing that you're in for the long run, that's okay too. But if you can't, you need an allocation that's more balanced… so you sleep better at night.” (02:10)

• The focus is on behavioral finance: understanding your risk tolerance can protect against panic-driven decisions.

4. Why Timing the Market Is Nearly Impossible

• Referencing a JP Morgan conversation:

  “If you're going to try and time the market, it's one, almost impossible to do. And two, you have to be right twice… when you sell… and when you buy back in.” (02:40)

• Most planners advise sticking to a consistent, well-considered allocation for the long run.

5. Why Market Crashes May Be Less Frequent Now

• The past 20 years had fewer crashes compared to prior decades.
• One factor: higher levels of debt in the economy, which acts as a cushion—until it doesn’t.
• He cites Japan as a cautionary example:

  “Japan is sort of a concerning story, now serving a harder time refinancing their debt and... at higher and higher interest rates. That is what happens when you get too far indebted.” (03:22)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On probability and uncertainty:

  “Probably not. But, but, an interesting discussion and it really points back to not trying to time the market and have your allocation right.” (04:02)

• On behavioral investing:

  “It's really all about allocation and what you can handle in terms of stress when the market goes up, market goes down and so forth.” (02:59)

• On debt and financial shocks:

  “[Debt] cushions some of this stuff—until it doesn’t.” (03:15)

Important Timestamps

• 00:30 — Scott Becker introduces the market crash theme and key questions
• 01:00 — Analyst vs. betting market probabilities of a crash
• 02:10 — Discussion about finding your comfortable asset allocation
• 02:40 — On the perils of market timing
• 03:22 — Lessons from Japan’s debt and historical context for crashes
• 04:02 — Final takeaways: don’t try to time the market, focus on allocation

Summary Table: Five Takeaways

| No. | Takeaway | Key Quote / Insight | Timestamp | |-----|------------------------------------------------------|---------------------------------------------|------------| | 1 | Unlikely to crash, but not impossible | “Probably not.” | 01:00 | | 2 | Analysts say 30%, betting markets say 8-10% chance | “The betting markets put that at a lower…” | 01:18 | | 3 | Maintain tolerable asset allocation | “Have an allocation you can live with...” | 02:10 | | 4 | Don’t try to time the market | “You have to be right twice…” | 02:40 | | 5 | Crashes less common recently, but debt is warning | “[Debt] cushions... until it doesn’t.” | 03:15 |

Tone & Style

Scott Becker’s tone is practical, candid, and focused on synthesis. He leans heavily into actionable insights while acknowledging the inherent unpredictability of financial markets. The episode is structured for clarity and rapid listening, communicating key points so listeners can make informed decisions without market panic.

For those who haven’t listened:
This episode offers a concise, clear-headed examination of market crash fears for 2026, demystifying crash forecasts and emphasizing the importance of preparation over prediction. Scott Becker draws on expert sources and keeps the advice accessible—don’t try to outguess the markets, but know your own limits and stick to them.