Will the Market Crash This Year? 1-9-26 - Becker Business

Becker Business Podcast

Host: Scott Becker
Episode: Will the Market Crash This Year?
Date: January 9, 2026

Overview

In this episode, Scott Becker addresses the pressing question: “Will the market crash in 2026?” Drawing on a recent Wall Street Journal article by Spencer Jacob and insights from market analysts, he explores probabilities of a crash, allocation strategies, and why attempting to time the market is fraught with risks. Becker distills the complex topic into five practical takeaways for investors and business leaders.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Likelihood of a Market Crash in 2026

Main conclusion: A crash is unlikely this year, but not impossible.
Analyst perspectives:
- “The major market analyst that Spencer talked to said there's about a 30% chance of the market crashing this year.” (01:00)
- Betting markets are more conservative, suggesting only an 8-10% chance of a serious crash (defined as a drop of 20-30% or more).

2. Probability Range: Analyst vs. Betting Markets

Analyst estimate: 30% chance of crash.
Betting markets: 8-10% chance.

“The betting markets put that at a lower number, closer to an 8 to 10% chance of a serious market crash.” (01:18)

3. The Importance of a Comfortable Asset Allocation

Allocate investments based on what you can tolerate emotionally and financially.

“You have to have an allocation that you can live with. If you could live with it going down 30% knowing that you're in for the long run, that's okay too. But if you can't, you need an allocation that's more balanced… so you sleep better at night.” (02:10)
The focus is on behavioral finance: understanding your risk tolerance can protect against panic-driven decisions.

4. Why Timing the Market Is Nearly Impossible

Referencing a JP Morgan conversation:

“If you're going to try and time the market, it's one, almost impossible to do. And two, you have to be right twice… when you sell… and when you buy back in.” (02:40)
Most planners advise sticking to a consistent, well-considered allocation for the long run.

5. Why Market Crashes May Be Less Frequent Now

The past 20 years had fewer crashes compared to prior decades.
One factor: higher levels of debt in the economy, which acts as a cushion—until it doesn’t.
He cites Japan as a cautionary example:

“Japan is sort of a concerning story, now serving a harder time refinancing their debt and... at higher and higher interest rates. That is what happens when you get too far indebted.” (03:22)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

On probability and uncertainty:

“Probably not. But, but, an interesting discussion and it really points back to not trying to time the market and have your allocation right.” (04:02)
On behavioral investing:

“It's really all about allocation and what you can handle in terms of stress when the market goes up, market goes down and so forth.” (02:59)
On debt and financial shocks:

“[Debt] cushions some of this stuff—until it doesn’t.” (03:15)

Important Timestamps

00:30 — Scott Becker introduces the market crash theme and key questions
01:00 — Analyst vs. betting market probabilities of a crash
02:10 — Discussion about finding your comfortable asset allocation
02:40 — On the perils of market timing
03:22 — Lessons from Japan’s debt and historical context for crashes
04:02 — Final takeaways: don’t try to time the market, focus on allocation

Summary Table: Five Takeaways

| No. | Takeaway | Key Quote / Insight | Timestamp | |-----|------------------------------------------------------|---------------------------------------------|------------| | 1 | Unlikely to crash, but not impossible | “Probably not.” | 01:00 | | 2 | Analysts say 30%, betting markets say 8-10% chance | “The betting markets put that at a lower…” | 01:18 | | 3 | Maintain tolerable asset allocation | “Have an allocation you can live with...” | 02:10 | | 4 | Don’t try to time the market | “You have to be right twice…” | 02:40 | | 5 | Crashes less common recently, but debt is warning | “[Debt] cushions... until it doesn’t.” | 03:15 |

Tone & Style

Scott Becker’s tone is practical, candid, and focused on synthesis. He leans heavily into actionable insights while acknowledging the inherent unpredictability of financial markets. The episode is structured for clarity and rapid listening, communicating key points so listeners can make informed decisions without market panic.

For those who haven’t listened:
This episode offers a concise, clear-headed examination of market crash fears for 2026, demystifying crash forecasts and emphasizing the importance of preparation over prediction. Scott Becker draws on expert sources and keeps the advice accessible—don’t try to outguess the markets, but know your own limits and stick to them.

Transcript

A (0:01)

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B (0:30)

This is Scott Becker with the Becker Business in the Becker Private Equity Podcast. Today's discussion is and we try and bring one to two Business Market Insight episodes a day, plus also a an episode with a brilliant business leader or thinker. Today's discussion is Will the market crash in 2026? I. E. Will the market crash this year? And here are five thoughts on this. In part of this is driven by a Great Wall Street Journal article by Spencer Jacob on the subject. So here is sort of five thoughts about Is the market going to crash? It's over. And so on. First, the ultimate conclusion is it's likely not to crash. But, but, but here's what prognosticators and analysis say that there's about a 30% chance, sort of. The major market analyst that Spencer talked to you said there's about a 30% chance of the market crashing this year. The betting markets put that at a lower number, closer to an 8 to 10% chance of a serious market crash. And they define a serious market crash as a fall of 20 to 30% or so. So, so the first two things are probably not second, the analysts say 30% chance. The betting markets say 8% chance of a serious crash. The third lesson all this is that whether it crashes or not, the concept is to keep your allocation, one that you're comfortable with, so that if it goes poorly, it does great, you're still in decent shape. So you can't be 100% in equities, have it go down 30% and freak out. You have to have an allocation that you can live with. If you could live with it going down 30% knowing that you're in for the long run, that's okay too. But if you can't, you need an allocation that's more balanced so it goes down. You don't lose a full 30% and you sleep better at night. That's, that's a personal, personal choice, behavioral finance and so forth. The next concept is that with this great discussion yesterday with a guy from JP Morgan and essentially said if you're going to try and time the market. It's one, almost impossible to do. And two, you have to be right twice. And I thought this was fascinating, you have to be right both when you sell because you think the market's too high, and then you got to be right when you buy back in. And most analysts would tell you, most financial planners would tell you you're far better off just in the long run having the right allocation and keeping your money in the market for the very long run. And I think that's right on. I think it's really all about allocation and what you can handle in terms of stress when the market goes up, market goes down and so forth. The fifth concept, and I thought this was interesting from the article in the Wall Street Journal, is that there's we've been less prone to market crashes the last 20 years than we were the 20 years before that. And there's a lot of reasons for that. Part of that is the incredible amount of debt that we've put in the economy that cushion some of this stuff until it doesn't. And Japanese Japan is sort of a concerning story now serving a harder time refinancing their debt and they're having to do so at higher and higher interest rates is what happens when you get too far indebted. In any event, this discussion today is will the market crash this year? 5 different thoughts on it. Probably not. But, but an interesting discussion and it really points back to not trying to time the market and have your allocation right. But thank you for listening as always to the Becker Business, the Becker private equity podcast. We're with you once, twice a day with short episodes. Done an interview with the business leader. Thank you so much for listening and God bless America. And gentlemen, start your engines. Thank you for listening.