Becker Private Equity & Business Podcast Summary

Episode: Blackstone, Apollo, & KKR All Surge Yesterday 6-25-25
Host: Scott Becker
Release Date: June 25, 2025

In this insightful episode of the Becker Private Equity & Business Podcast, host Scott Becker delves into the recent movements within the private equity landscape, focusing on three major players: Blackstone, Apollo, and KKR. The discussion provides a comprehensive analysis of their stock performances, fee collections, and exit strategies, offering listeners a nuanced understanding of the current state and future prospects of these investment giants.

Stock Performance Overview

Scott begins by highlighting the notable surge in stock prices of Blackstone, Apollo, and KKR on June 24, 2025. He notes:

"All of these stocks, the big big private equity fund stocks, Investment families, all rose 4 to 5% yesterday." [00:15]

Despite this positive movement, Scott emphasizes that each of these firms still faces challenges in the broader market context for the year:

• Blackstone: Down 16% year-to-date
• Apollo: Down 50% year-to-date
• KKR: Down 12% year-to-date

These figures underscore the volatility and the complex dynamics at play within the private equity sector.

Fee Collection vs. Exit Performance

A significant portion of the discussion centers around the dichotomy between fee collection and exit performance among these private equity giants. Scott observes:

"All the big PE funds are doing terrifically well when it comes to fees and what fees are collecting." [00:45]

This indicates that while these firms are successfully generating revenue through management and performance fees, their ability to execute profitable exits from their investments hasn't kept pace.

He further elaborates on the challenges in achieving successful exits:

"They're not doing as well on getting exits done." [00:50]

This shortfall in exits can impact the overall returns and investor satisfaction, potentially affecting future fundraising and investment capabilities.

Potential Drivers for Positive Movement

Looking ahead, Scott identifies two critical factors that could propel these private equity firms into more favorable positions:

1. Interest Rate Trends:
   Scott points out the potential for declining interest rates, which could be a catalyst for increased investment activity and higher valuations at the time of exits.

   "One is it's starting to drive the upside is the potential that rates will start to come down..." [01:05]

2. Improved Exit Environment:
   He anticipates a more conducive environment for exits, which would enable these firms to realize better returns on their investments.

   "...and the exit environment will, will glow up significantly." [01:10]

These factors combined could enhance the firms' ability to execute profitable exits, thereby improving their year-to-date performance and investor confidence.

Current Market Sentiment and Future Outlook

Despite the positive stock movement, Scott maintains a cautious optimism regarding the performance of these firms:

"...each down still 16 to 12% year to date. But, but, but some movement." [01:20]

He acknowledges the incremental progress being made while recognizing that there is still a substantial journey ahead for these private equity titans to fully recover and thrive in the current market conditions.

Conclusion

Scott wraps up the episode by summarizing the key takeaways:

• Positive Stock Surge: Blackstone, Apollo, and KKR experienced a notable stock price increase of 4-5% on June 24, 2025.
• Year-to-Date Challenges: Despite recent gains, each firm remains significantly down for the year.
• Fee Strength vs. Exit Weakness: Robust fee collections contrast with underwhelming exit performances.
• Future Catalysts: Potential decreases in interest rates and an improved exit environment could drive further positive momentum.

He encourages listeners to stay informed and vigilant as the private equity landscape continues to evolve.

"Thank you for listening to the Becker Business and Becker Private Equity Podcast. Thank you very, very much." [01:30]

This episode offers a concise yet comprehensive analysis of the current state of major private equity firms, providing valuable insights for investors, industry professionals, and enthusiasts keen on understanding the intricacies of private equity dynamics.