Episode Overview
Episode Title: Ford’s EV Program Crashes
Host: Scott Becker
Podcast: Becker Private Equity & Business Podcast
Original Air Date: December 17, 2025
In this episode, Scott Becker delivers an insightful solo commentary on Ford's recent $19.5 billion write-down stemming from its troubled electric vehicle (EV) program. Becker analyzes how this enormous loss has surprisingly not shaken Ford’s financial standing or its stock price, explores the shifting landscape of the auto industry, and briefly compares Ford’s EV setbacks with Tesla’s continued dominance and future bets on autonomous vehicles.
Key Discussion Points & Insights
1. Ford’s EV Program Write-Down: The Numbers and Market Reaction
- $19.5 Billion Write-Down: Ford has announced a massive write-down related to its EV business, described as both “astounding” and “fascinating” (03:16).
- Market Cap Perspective: Despite this loss, Ford maintains a $54 billion market cap. The scale of the write-down is shocking—it's about a third of Ford's market cap (02:22).
- Stock Performance: Ford’s core (non-EV) business is performing "incredibly well." Even with the EV write-down, Ford’s stock is up nearly 37% for the year (02:31).
- Market Digestion: The market had largely anticipated this write-down and had already "digested this loss," meaning it didn’t react negatively when it became official (02:44).
Quote:
"You'd think that taking a $20 billion write-down... would be an absolute disaster. The reality is Ford is up... nearly 37%."
— Scott Becker (02:22)
2. Why Did Ford’s EV Program Falter?
- Subsidy Changes: Loss of federal subsidies led to a dramatic drop in EV demand (03:04).
- Cash vs. Paper Losses: Of the $20 billion write-down, only about $5–6 billion is expected to be an actual cash outflow over the next few years. Much of it is accounting-based, reflecting future expectations (03:13).
- Strategic Pivot: Ford appears to be moving away from pure EVs, returning focus to hybrids and core models like the F-150.
Quote:
“It does go to the point though that once federal subsidies went away for electric vehicles, there just wasn’t the demand... that people expected.”
— Scott Becker (03:04)
3. Ford’s Resilience: Why Isn’t the Write-Down a Disaster?
- Financial Management: Ford's financial planning and predictions have lessened the shock for investors and the market.
- Timing: Ford is taking the loss while its core business is strong, which softens the impact.
- Investor Attitudes: Investors remain confident due to the company’s sustained overall health.
Quote:
“It’s almost the complete washout of their EV program and they're moving from EVs to hybrids and back to their core models, the Ford F-150s and so forth.”
— Scott Becker (03:25)
4. Tesla's Position & The Future of Mobility
- Tesla’s EV Dominance: Tesla continues as the unparalleled leader in EV manufacturing.
- Broader Value Proposition: Much of Tesla’s high market cap is hinged not just on EVs, but on robotics and potential future products like driverless taxis (03:39).
- Societal Impacts: Becker briefly touches on the potential disruption driverless taxis might cause for people relying on driving-related income.
Quote:
“A whole different issue that we won’t discuss today is the impact of so many people that earn their living through driving...as Uber, Lyft and everybody else over time moves to driverless vehicles.”
— Scott Becker (03:49)
5. Reflections and Final Observations
- Survivability: The episode’s main marvel is that Ford is surviving—and even thriving—after writing off nearly $20 billion, which Becker describes as “fascinating” and “a little scary” (04:31).
- Listener Engagement: Scott invites listeners to text him “Ford crashes” for a chance at a $50 Amazon gift card (04:44).
Quote:
“…Ford taking literally a nineteen and a half billion-dollar write off. More fascinating that it's not killing their stock price and they're doing okay.”
— Scott Becker (04:31)
Memorable Quotes with Timestamps
- “You'd think that taking a $20 billion write-down... would be an absolute disaster. The reality is Ford is up... nearly 37%.” — Scott Becker (02:22)
- “It does go to the point though that once federal subsidies went away for electric vehicles, there just wasn’t the demand... that people expected.” — Scott Becker (03:04)
- “It’s almost the complete washout of their EV program and they're moving from EVs to hybrids and back to their core models, the Ford F-150s and so forth.” — Scott Becker (03:25)
- “A whole different issue that we won’t discuss today is the impact of so many people that earn their living through driving...as Uber, Lyft and everyone else over time moves to driverless vehicles.” — Scott Becker (03:49)
- “…Ford taking literally a nineteen and a half billion-dollar write off. More fascinating that it's not killing their stock price and they're doing okay.” — Scott Becker (04:31)
Noteworthy Segments with Timestamps
| Timestamp | Segment Description | |-----------|----------------------------------------------------------| | 00:30 | Scott Becker introduces the main topic: Ford’s EV crash | | 01:10 | Ford’s core business performance and initial reactions | | 02:22 | The write-down’s market impact and investor attitudes | | 03:04 | Role of subsidies in EV demand decline | | 03:25 | Ford’s pivot away from full EVs | | 03:39 | Comparison with Tesla and robotics/driverless cars focus | | 03:49 | Societal and labor impacts of driverless technology | | 04:44 | Listener engagement offer |
Summary Table: Episode at a Glance
| Topic | Key Insight | |------------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------------| | Ford EV Write-Down | $19.5B, mostly anticipated by markets, limited cash impact| | Core Business Health | Strong performance, stock up 37% YTD | | EV Demand | Plummeted after federal subsidies ended | | Strategic Shift | Pivot back to hybrids and classic models | | Tesla Comparison | Still dominant; future on driverless tech | | Wider Implications | Automation’s impact on drivers’ livelihoods |
Tone and Language
Scott Becker adopts an astonished, conversational, and industry-savvy tone throughout. He balances hard financial analysis with market psychology insights, expressing genuine amazement at Ford’s ability to weather staggering paper losses. He peppers his discussion with rhetorical questions and direct invitations for audience engagement.
In sum:
This episode provides a concise yet comprehensive breakdown of Ford’s EV write-down, its limited impact on Ford’s stability, and what this says about industry trends and investor attitudes. Scott Becker’s commentary makes complex market events accessible and engaging, providing valuable context for business listeners tracking automotive and equity news.