Summary3 min read

Becker Private Equity & Business Podcast

Host: Scott Becker
Episode: Health Insurers Take it on the Chin as a Deal Comes Together in D.C.
Date: November 10, 2025

Episode Overview

In this special episode, Scott Becker analyzes the impact of the imminent government shutdown deal in Washington, D.C. on major health insurers—particularly those focused on Medicare Advantage and Medicaid managed care plans. The discussion centers around how potential changes to Affordable Care Act (ACA) subsidies are shaking up the market, particularly for Oscar Health, Centene, and Humana. Scott also reviews year-to-date performance of the other large health insurers, providing listeners with a snapshot of industry turmoil and resilience.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Market Impact of the D.C. Deal

Context: Lawmakers in Washington are close to a government shutdown deal, and there is uncertainty around the continuation of certain ACA subsidies.
- [00:17] "Three of the major health insurance companies that are really involved in Medicare Advantage plans and Medicaid managed care plans...Oscar Health, Centene, and Humana are all down significantly on the news that some of the Affordable Care Act subsidies may not continue in the same way..."

2. Who is Most Affected?

Companies heavily involved in Medicare Advantage and Medicaid managed care are feeling the sharpest financial pain:
- Oscar Health: Down 14%
- Centene & Humana: Down 5-7%
The reason: These companies rely more on federal subsidies tied to the programs under scrutiny.

3. Relative Immunity of Other Major Insurers

Other insurers experience less volatility:
- They have shifted away from, or are less dependent on, the Medicare Advantage market and the associated subsidies.
- Example: UnitedHealthcare, CVS Health (Aetna), Cigna, Elevance (former Anthem).
- [00:44] "Now in terms of the other major insurers, they are not as dependent at the moment as they moved out of some of the Medicare Advantage markets."

4. Year-to-Date Performances (as of episode date)

UnitedHealthcare: Down 36%
CVS Health: Up 70%+ ("for other reasons outside of Aetna")
Cigna: Down 7%
Elevance Health (formerly Anthem Blue Cross): Down 17%
- [01:03] "UnitedHealthcare year to date is down 36%. CVS Health for other reasons outside of Aetna is up 70-plus percent this year. Cigna...is down about 7% year to date. And finally Elevance Health...is down about 17% year to date."

5. Industry Snapshot and Closing Thoughts

The most vulnerable players are those with heavier exposure to government programs and the relevant subsidies. The episode conveys a sense of ongoing volatility and industry uncertainty.

Notable Quotes

On insurer stock drops:
“Oscar health is down 14%. Humana and Centene are down 5 to 7%. We’ll see how that lasts and how it holds up.”
— Scott Becker, [00:30]
On relative resilience:
“Now in terms of the other major insurers, they are not as dependent at the moment...so they're not having as big of movement today.”
— Scott Becker, [00:44]
Highlighting the industry’s split fortunes:
“A couple of the key insurers that really deal with Medicaid managed care plans and Medicare Advantage, Oscar Health, Centene, Humana, taking it on the chin today.”
— Scott Becker, [01:15]

Timestamps for Important Segments

00:17 – Introduction to market issues tied to D.C. government deal
00:30 – Immediate stock impacts for Oscar Health, Centene, Humana
00:44 – Why some insurers are less affected; market context
01:03 – Year-to-date stock performance breakdown of major health insurers
01:15 – Summary and industry takeaways

Tone and Style

Scott Becker’s delivery is analytic yet conversational, offering concise performance metrics with brief contextual commentary. The tone is informative without hyperbole, focused on conveying market facts and implications in real time.

Summary prepared for listeners seeking clear, actionable insights into health insurer performance amidst policy uncertainty in Washington, D.C.

Loading summary

Transcript1 lines

[00:00]
A
This is Scott Becker with a special episode of the Becker's Healthcare and Becker Private Equity podcast. Today's discussion is health insurers take it on the chin as a deal comes together in Washington, D.C. so here's the issue. Three of the major health insurance companies that are really involved in Medicare Advantage plans and Medicaid managed care plans, meaning today Oscar Health, Centene and Humana are all down significantly on the news that some of the Affordable Care act subsidies may not continue in the same way under the government shutdown deal that seems close to being reached. And just to give you a flavor for this, Oscar health is down 14%. Humana and Centene are down 5 to 7%. We'll see how that lasts and how it holds up. Now in terms of the other major insurers, they are not as dependent at the moment as they moved out of some of the Medicare Advantage markets. They're not as dependent on some of these subsidies as they once were. So they're not having as big of movement today. UnitedHealthcare year to date is down 36%. CVS Health for other reasons outside of Aetna is up 70/plus percent this year. Cigna, the third of the four insurance companies are top 20 by revenues in America, is down about 7% year to date. And finally Elevance Health, which is the former Anthem Blue Cross I think is down about 17% year to date. So again, a couple of the key insurers that really deal with Medicaid managed care plans and Medicare Advantage, Oscar Health, Centene, Ximena taking it on the chin today, the other four insurers, we've just gone through the year to date results and again we hope you find this informative. Feel free at any time to reach Scott becker at Becker's Healthcare, 773-766-5322. Also a separate company. Founder of Becker Business, Becker Private Equity More just so I keep on learning about business, not a true media company. Thank you for listening to the Becker's Healthcare podcast and the Becker Private Equity Podcast.