Investing With Conviction: Palantir, Microsoft & Amazon 6-26-25 - Becker Private Equity & Business Podcast

Summary4 min read

Investing With Conviction: Palantir, Microsoft & Amazon

Podcast: Becker Private Equity & Business Podcast
Host: Scott Becker
Episode Release Date: June 26, 2025

In this episode of the Becker Private Equity & Business Podcast, host Scott Becker delves into the importance of investing with conviction. By sharing his personal investment experiences with major companies like Palantir, Microsoft, and Amazon, Scott illustrates how a thoughtful and committed investment strategy can lead to significant successes, while impulsive decisions may result in setbacks.

1. Scott Becker’s Investment Philosophy

Scott begins by outlining his foundational investment strategy, which primarily revolves around diversification and stability. He emphasizes a balanced approach:

Core Investments: Index funds and Treasuries provide a stable base.
Supplementary Investments: Periodic investments in individual stocks allow for potential higher returns.

“I have a core investment strategy which is I invest in index funds, invest in Treasuries, in addition to that, periodically invest in individual stocks.” [01:15]

2. The Pitfalls of Investing Without Conviction

Scott recounts his past mistakes when he ventured into investing without strong conviction. He shares his experiences with specific Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) to highlight the consequences of such decisions:

Bitcoin ETF: Scott invested in a Bitcoin ETF on a whim but sold it before it rebounded, missing out on substantial gains in the subsequent years.

“I ended up selling the Bitcoin ETF before it rebounded like it's rebounded the last couple years.” [03:45]
Cannabis ETF: Similarly, his investment in a cannabis ETF turned out to be disastrous, largely due to the lack of a solid investment rationale.

“They both ended up being a disaster. One, because I invested with them on a whim.” [02:30]

These experiences underscored the importance of having a clear, thought-out reason for each investment. Without conviction, Scott found himself unable to hold onto these investments during downturns, leading to unnecessary losses.

3. Success Through Conviction: Palantir, Amazon, and Microsoft

Contrasting his earlier mistakes, Scott shares his successful investments made with strong conviction:

Palantir: Believing in Peter Thiel’s vision and the company’s strategic advancements, Scott invested in Palantir. His conviction paid off as Palantir saw a 90% increase year-to-date and continued strong performance.

“Palantir is up 90 year to date. It was up last year too. It's one of my best performing stocks over the last few years.” [07:20]
Amazon and Microsoft: Scott invested in these tech giants based on their aggressive expansion in the cloud computing sector, specifically AWS and Azure. His thorough analysis and belief in their long-term growth trajectory solidified his decision.

“Both of them were sort of doubling down and making money in the cloud business. You know, AWS and Azure at Amazon and Microsoft.” [09:10]

By investing with conviction, Scott was able to maintain his holdings through market fluctuations, reaping substantial rewards as these companies continued to thrive.

4. Lessons Learned: The Power of Conviction in Investing

Scott synthesizes his experiences to offer key insights into successful investing:

Thoughtful Decision-Making: Investing with a clear rationale leads to better outcomes. When Scott invested in Palantir, Amazon, and Microsoft, he did so after deep analysis and understanding of their business models and future prospects.

“I actually invested with some conviction versus on a whim and thought about deeply, went through it deeply, made a decision, made an assessment.” [12:00]
Resilience During Downturns: Strong conviction makes investors more resilient, enabling them to hold onto promising investments even when they face temporary setbacks.

“It makes you much more willing to hold those stocks through ups and downs.” [05:50]
Avoiding Impulsive Decisions: Scott emphasizes the dangers of speculative investments made without thorough consideration, as evidenced by his losses with the Bitcoin and cannabis ETFs.

“When I don't invest with conviction, it's a disaster.” [10:30]

5. Conclusion

Scott Becker wraps up the discussion by reinforcing the significance of investing with conviction. His experiences serve as a testament to how a well-considered investment approach can lead to substantial gains, while impulsive decisions often result in avoidable losses. He encourages investors to thoroughly assess their investment choices and commit to those that align with their long-term financial goals.

“When I invest with some thoughts about why I'm doing something, it is typically a much better plan and a much better... outcome in the long run.” [14:05]

Scott’s insights provide valuable guidance for both novice and seasoned investors, underscoring that conviction, informed decision-making, and patience are key components of a successful investment strategy.

Notable Quotes:

On Investment Strategy: “I have a core investment strategy which is I invest in index funds, invest in Treasuries, in addition to that, periodically invest in individual stocks.” [01:15]
On Bitcoin ETF Mistake: “I ended up selling the Bitcoin ETF before it rebounded like it's rebounded the last couple years.” [03:45]
On Palantir’s Success: “Palantir is up 90 year to date. It was up last year too. It's one of my best performing stocks over the last few years.” [07:20]
On Cloud Investments: “Both of them were sort of doubling down and making money in the cloud business. You know, AWS and Azure at Amazon and Microsoft.” [09:10]
On Conviction in Investing: “When I don't invest with conviction, it's a disaster.” [10:30]
On Thoughtful Investing: “I actually invested with some conviction versus on a whim and thought about deeply, went through it deeply, made a decision, made an assessment.” [12:00]
On Long-Term Outcomes: “When I invest with some thoughts about why I'm doing something, it is typically a much better plan and a much better... outcome in the long run.” [14:05]

This episode serves as an insightful exploration into the role of conviction in successful investing, offering listeners actionable advice grounded in Scott Becker’s personal investment journey.

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Transcript1 lines

[00:00]
A
This is Scott Becker with the Becker Business and the Becker Private Equity Podcast. Today's discussion is Investing with Conviction. Palantir, Amazon and Microsoft. So here's the issue over the years is I've become a slightly better investor and not always. I have a core investment strategy which is I invest in index funds, invest in Treasuries, in addition to that, periodically invest in individual stocks. One of the things I used to do was have a quick conversation with somebody and then the explore part of my portfolio. Invest in something without any great conviction at all. This led me to invest in a couple ETFs a few years ago. A Bitcoin ETF, a cannabis ETF. These both ended up being a disaster. One, because I invested with them on a whim. Two, because I ended up selling the Bitcoin ETF before it rebounded like it's rebounded the last couple years. But in any event, the mistake in both those was that I invested in them without any sort of clear thought about why I'm investing in them. And so that was sort of like a mistake. And it led me also, because I never clear a conviction to sell them for tax losses. At some point the cannabis tax loss made sense. Ultimately, the bitcoin ETF tax loss I would have been far better off holding. But that's a different story. But if you invest with conviction in the first instance, you're not so intent on selling when things go bad. So here's the sort of next step of this. When I invested in Paleontia, invested in it with the concept that Peter Thiel's a genius, that they'll continue to be involved in everything and that they gotten so far ahead of this game than all these other companies in terms of what they do and how they do it. That conviction has been rewarded. Palantir is up 90 year to date. It was up last year too. It's one of my best performing stocks over the last few years. And God bless. The other two stocks that invested in with some conviction were Amazon and Microsoft. A few years back with the concept again that both of them were sort of doubling down and making money in the cloud business. You know, AWS and Azure at Amazon and Microsoft, the two of them. And in the concept here, where I feel like I got this more right than wrong is I actually invested with some conviction versus on a whim and thought about deeply, went through it deeply, made a decision, made an assessment, and it makes you much more willing to hold those stocks through ups and downs and, and it makes you a much better investor when you actually invest in conviction. So the lesson I've learned over the years is when I don't invest with conviction, it's a disaster. When I invest with some thoughts about why I'm doing something, it is typically a much better plan and a much better, you know, much better outcome in the long run. So those are the two thoughts for the day. Invest it with conviction here. I'm talking about investing with Palantir, Microsoft and Amazon, and thrilled with those, but also have made plenty and plenty of errors, particularly when invested without conviction. And that's been across the board in lots of different places. Thank you for listening to the Becker Private Equity Podcast and the Becker Business Podcast. Thank you very, very.