Is Private Credit in Trouble? 3 Quick Points 3-13-26 - Becker Private Equity & Business Podcast

Summary3 min read

Podcast Summary: Is Private Credit in Trouble? 3 Quick Points – Becker Private Equity & Business Podcast

Host: Scott Becker
Date: March 13, 2026
Episode Theme:
Scott Becker discusses emerging challenges in the private credit market, highlighting three key issues—rising defaults, growing liquidity pressures, and renewed concerns about underwriting standards. He reflects on the sector’s previous boom and the current signs of strain, offering a concise yet comprehensive analysis for private equity and business listeners.

Main Discussion Points & Insights

1. Rising Defaults in Private Credit

[00:45] Scott notes a decade of rapid growth in private credit, which ballooned to $2–3 trillion globally.
As interest rates have remained high and exits have become harder, pressure on borrowers has grown substantially.
Key Insight:
- U.S. private credit default rates reached 9.2% in 2025, a record high for the sector.
- Defaults are being driven by small and mid-market companies “struggling with higher floating-rate debt costs and higher debt costs” (Scott Becker, 01:20).
Notable Quote:

“In 2025, US private credit default rates hit about 9.2%, a true record for the sector. And it’s largely driven by small and mid-market companies struggling with higher floating rate debt costs.” (Scott Becker, 01:20)

2. Liquidity & Redemption Pressures

[01:50] Some large private credit funds are struggling to meet redemption requests, limiting investor withdrawals or facing substantial redemption demands.
This raises significant concerns around the illiquidity and lack of transparency inherent in the asset class.
If investors rush to withdraw, a “contagion effect” could emerge, intensifying stress in the market.
Notable Quote:

“Several large funds have limited investor withdrawals or faced large redemption requests. And this also raises lots of questions about the sort of liquidity of the asset class where the sort of investments are somewhat illiquid and the valuations are fairly non-transparent.” (Scott Becker, 02:05)

3. Underwriting & Transparency Concerns

[02:45] The episode draws a parallel to the mortgage crisis, questioning whether looser lending standards fueled the rapid growth in private credit.
Regulators and analysts fear the build-up of risks may be obscured by opaque valuations, as many loans “aren't marked to market.”
Losses could be hidden for some time, only surfacing much later, exposing weaknesses that were previously masked.
Notable Quote:

“Much of the private credit loans aren't marked to market so it could take a long time for some of the losses to appear and really show through. And in some ways, private credit funds could sort of hide those for some time—until they can’t.” (Scott Becker, 03:05)

Memorable Moments & Tone

While Scott emphasizes a measured perspective—“it doesn’t mean that the world is falling apart”—he makes clear these are the biggest challenges the asset class has faced in a decade of outsized performance (Scott Becker, 00:50 & 03:18).
He urges listeners to reflect on the shift:

“For the first time in some time, we’re seeing much bigger challenges and concerns about [private credit]. Suddenly it’s not nearly as on fire.” (Scott Becker, 03:18)

Key Timestamps

[00:30] – Introduction and overview of the episode's three main points.
[00:45–01:30] – Discussion of record-high defaults.
[01:50–02:30] – Analysis of liquidity and redemption issues.
[02:45–03:20] – Underwriting and transparency risks, and comparison to the mortgage crisis.
[03:18] – Host’s closing remarks on the changing private credit landscape.

Takeaway

Scott Becker offers a candid, accessible snapshot of private credit’s shifting fortunes. He highlights data, historical context, and parallels to previous crises—encouraging listeners to pay attention to often-overlooked signs of stress in an asset class that has enjoyed a long boom. The tone is calm but cautionary, flagging critical risks without alarmism.

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Transcript3 lines

[00:00]
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[00:30]
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This is Scott Becker with the Becker Business in the Becker Private Equity Podcast. Today's topic is Private Credit in Trouble three Quick Points. So here's the discussion. Just recently you're seeing some private credit funds find themselves struggling with redemptions and not being able to handle redemptions. You're also seeing some of the private credit loans that are being held being marked down. I'm just going to go through three quick points on private credit and it doesn't mean that the world is falling apart, but there are some cracks in what was an incredibly positive asset class for several years. So first, defaults in private credit are rising. After what has been a decade long boom, private credit expands it rapidly to about 2 to 3 trillion globally. But higher interest rates and a prolonged interest rates and not being able to exit are putting a lot of pressure on borrowers. In 2025, US private credit default rates hit about 9.2%, a true record for the sector. And it's largely driven by small and mid market companies struggling with higher floating rate debt costs and higher debt costs. So that's a real big number. 9.2%. That's an incredible number. Second, liquidity and redemption pressures are emerging. As we mentioned a moment ago, several large funds have limited investor withdrawals or faced large redemption requests. And this also raises lots of questions about the sort of liquidity of the asset class where the sort of investments are somewhat illiquid and the valuations are fairly non transparent. This does cause some concern that there could be a contagion effect as investors rush for the exits if they start seeing exits and liquidity cut off. Finally, there's increased concerns again about underwriting and transparency concerns. And this reminds you back of sort of the mortgage crisis where people are writing mortgages for for almost anything. Regulators and analysts are increasingly worried that looser lending standards have led to a lot of the private credit growth and that we're going to end up having trouble at some point. Much of the private credit loans aren't marked to market so it could take a long time for some of the losses to appear and really show through. And in some ways, private credit funds could sort of hide those for some time until they can't. So so it's not that private credit is blowing up, but for the first time in some time, we're seeing much bigger challenges concerns about it. And we've seen literally in the last decade where it's been an asset class that has been on fire. Suddenly it's not nearly as on fire. Thank you for listening to the Becker Business and the Becker Private Equity Podcast. If you find this helpful, please text me at 773-766-5322. I'd love to hear your thoughts on it. If you're the first person to text Scott Becker after listening to this episode and give me your comments on it, we'll send you a $100Amazon gift card. Thank you so much for listening to the Becker Business and the Becker Private Equity Podcast.
[03:39]
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